October 2016
- Thread starter hugh613
- Start date
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
*Portland went 3-1 SU against Utah last season (3-1 ATS) with an average MOV of 11.0, and went 2-0 against them during the preseason by scores of 98-89 (in Portland) and 88-84 (in Salt Lake). And, yes, I know, preseason results don't mean much of anything but, at the same time, that's still five wins in the last six for Portland - sometimes teams just don't match up well, and this would appear to be one of those situations.
For the Jazz, injuries are a big concern heading into this one: Gordon Hayward likely won't be back until late November with a broken finger, Derrick Favors was hurt the majority of the preseason with knee issues and seems unlikely for the opener, and it's pretty much up in the air as to when Alec Burks finally gets back on the court with his multiple issues (knee and ankle). So that's 3 of their top 5 scorers from a year ago when they were 28th in the league in scoring at 97.7 PPG.
As for the Blazers, I'm super big on them this season. Wanted to pull the trigger on them to win the Northwest at +250 as well but, meh... the only one of my 3 books that offers it is bet365 and, well, I'm not going to make a deposit specifically just for that and then watch it sit there for the next six months, but anyways... In my mind, the 2nd best back court in the Association in Damian Lillard / CJ McCollum, versatile front court with the likes of Mason Plumlee and Meyers Leonard, great defender in Al-Farouq Aminu, rising Sixth Man candidate in Allen Crabbe (have loved his game ever since he was at Cal), and two really smart off season acquisitions in Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli (although Ezeli's hurt and won't feature for a while).
Bottom line, the Jazz should have a tough time keeping pace without (presumably) two of their top scorers in this one. If the game were in Salt Lake where Utah's defense could establish the tempo, that would be one thing, but at Moda where the Blazers have beaten them in 5 of the last 6 regular season matchups, think it's too much of an ask for that anemic offense on opening night.
And just as an aside, I already booked three totals for Wednesday, but won't post them until then, so for those interested: Min/Mem O 202½ -110, Cha/Mil U 199½ -120, Hou/LAL O 206½ -110 (expecting the numbers to climb in Memphis and Los Angeles).
For the Jazz, injuries are a big concern heading into this one: Gordon Hayward likely won't be back until late November with a broken finger, Derrick Favors was hurt the majority of the preseason with knee issues and seems unlikely for the opener, and it's pretty much up in the air as to when Alec Burks finally gets back on the court with his multiple issues (knee and ankle). So that's 3 of their top 5 scorers from a year ago when they were 28th in the league in scoring at 97.7 PPG.
As for the Blazers, I'm super big on them this season. Wanted to pull the trigger on them to win the Northwest at +250 as well but, meh... the only one of my 3 books that offers it is bet365 and, well, I'm not going to make a deposit specifically just for that and then watch it sit there for the next six months, but anyways... In my mind, the 2nd best back court in the Association in Damian Lillard / CJ McCollum, versatile front court with the likes of Mason Plumlee and Meyers Leonard, great defender in Al-Farouq Aminu, rising Sixth Man candidate in Allen Crabbe (have loved his game ever since he was at Cal), and two really smart off season acquisitions in Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli (although Ezeli's hurt and won't feature for a while).
Bottom line, the Jazz should have a tough time keeping pace without (presumably) two of their top scorers in this one. If the game were in Salt Lake where Utah's defense could establish the tempo, that would be one thing, but at Moda where the Blazers have beaten them in 5 of the last 6 regular season matchups, think it's too much of an ask for that anemic offense on opening night.
And just as an aside, I already booked three totals for Wednesday, but won't post them until then, so for those interested: Min/Mem O 202½ -110, Cha/Mil U 199½ -120, Hou/LAL O 206½ -110 (expecting the numbers to climb in Memphis and Los Angeles).
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
And after the success of my preseason 'scheduling' spots (7-2 SU including a few big ML dogs; of course, I only played 3 of them and went 1-2, but y'know...), I've decided to dedicate the 3rd post of every month to three sets of scheduling quirks: Rest Advantage vs. B2B/3 IN 4 (a team with at least a two day rest advantage vs. a team playing B2B/3 IN 4), B2B/3 IN 4 vs. B2B/3 IN 4 (both teams in bad spots, although still debating whether the better bet would be FT Under, 2H Under, maybe both, or maybe only if both teams traveled) and ESPN's Mah Score (probably similar to BAR's situations, although I still haven't fully worked out what games they're referring to on their chart, so it might take a while before I go with those). And again, as much as I tried to avoid it, there's no guarantee there won't be a mistake or two along the way, so please double check along the way.
Rest Advantage vs. B2B/3 IN 4
Saturday October 29
Nets vs. Bucks: Nets on B2B/3 IN 4 (Wednesday in Boston, Friday in Brooklyn, Saturday in Milwaukee) vs. Bucks with two days rest (Wednesday in Milwaukee)
Rest Advantage vs. B2B/3 IN 4
Saturday October 29
Nets vs. Bucks: Nets on B2B/3 IN 4 (Wednesday in Boston, Friday in Brooklyn, Saturday in Milwaukee) vs. Bucks with two days rest (Wednesday in Milwaukee)
Pauliethevig
Active Member
Good Luck hugh My opening day will be on Wed with OKC -8.5. Big number on the road but Westbrook should be fun to watch and in a contact year in just may start with a triple Double. Sac Kings +3 vs the Suns. The Kings seem to handle the Suns the past two years and really don't see much changing. They start the season with a B2B and after the Suns they go home to face a SAS team that shouldn't be in a very good mood after taking a beating against the Dubs and actually get a day off to think about it before the King game.
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Thanks guys. Good luck to all of you this season as well.
I read over on ESPN that the Blazers have won 15 straight home openers (the longest streak in NBA history), so I did a little digging and here's what I found (had to copy and paste from Covers because apparently I'm too stupid to figure out how to use SDQL...)
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]10/28/15
[/TD]
[TD="width: 107"]New Orleans[/TD]
[TD="width: 71"]W 112-94[/TD]
[TD="width: 114"]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD="width: 53"]W -2.5[/TD]
[TD="width: 53"]U 206.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/29/14[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma City[/TD]
[TD]W 106-89[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -9[/TD]
[TD]U 198.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/02/13[/TD]
[TD]San Antonio[/TD]
[TD]W 115-105[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]O 198.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/12[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Lakers[/TD]
[TD]W 116-106[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]O 192[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12/26/11[/TD]
[TD]Philadelphia[/TD]
[TD]W 107-103[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]P -4[/TD]
[TD]O 188[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/26/10[/TD]
[TD]Phoenix[/TD]
[TD]W 106-92[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -6.5[/TD]
[TD]U 203[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/27/09[/TD]
[TD]Houston[/TD]
[TD]W 96-87[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -8.5[/TD]
[TD]U 187.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/08[/TD]
[TD]San Antonio[/TD]
[TD]W 100-99[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]O 174.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/07/07[/TD]
[TD]New Orleans[/TD]
[TD]W 93-90[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]U 201.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/04/06[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD]W 88-86[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 3.5[/TD]
[TD]U 189.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/05/05[/TD]
[TD]Atlanta[/TD]
[TD]W 94-93[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]L -7[/TD]
[TD]O 183.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/05/04[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Clippers[/TD]
[TD]W 94-81[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -4.5[/TD]
[TD]U 183[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/01/03[/TD]
[TD]Cleveland[/TD]
[TD]W 104-85[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -8.5[/TD]
[TD]O 187[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/30/02[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Lakers[/TD]
[TD]W 102-90[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -9[/TD]
[TD]O 183.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/01[/TD]
[TD]Golden State[/TD]
[TD]W 92-87[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]L -8[/TD]
[TD]U 187.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/00[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Lakers[/TD]
[TD]L 86-96[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]L -3.5[/TD]
[TD]U 185[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
We'll see if it continues...
I read over on ESPN that the Blazers have won 15 straight home openers (the longest streak in NBA history), so I did a little digging and here's what I found (had to copy and paste from Covers because apparently I'm too stupid to figure out how to use SDQL...)
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]10/28/15
[/TD]
[TD="width: 107"]New Orleans[/TD]
[TD="width: 71"]W 112-94[/TD]
[TD="width: 114"]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD="width: 53"]W -2.5[/TD]
[TD="width: 53"]U 206.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/29/14[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma City[/TD]
[TD]W 106-89[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -9[/TD]
[TD]U 198.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/02/13[/TD]
[TD]San Antonio[/TD]
[TD]W 115-105[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]O 198.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/12[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Lakers[/TD]
[TD]W 116-106[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]O 192[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12/26/11[/TD]
[TD]Philadelphia[/TD]
[TD]W 107-103[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]P -4[/TD]
[TD]O 188[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/26/10[/TD]
[TD]Phoenix[/TD]
[TD]W 106-92[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -6.5[/TD]
[TD]U 203[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/27/09[/TD]
[TD]Houston[/TD]
[TD]W 96-87[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -8.5[/TD]
[TD]U 187.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/08[/TD]
[TD]San Antonio[/TD]
[TD]W 100-99[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]O 174.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/07/07[/TD]
[TD]New Orleans[/TD]
[TD]W 93-90[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 2.5[/TD]
[TD]U 201.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/04/06[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD]W 88-86[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W 3.5[/TD]
[TD]U 189.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/05/05[/TD]
[TD]Atlanta[/TD]
[TD]W 94-93[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]L -7[/TD]
[TD]O 183.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/05/04[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Clippers[/TD]
[TD]W 94-81[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -4.5[/TD]
[TD]U 183[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11/01/03[/TD]
[TD]Cleveland[/TD]
[TD]W 104-85[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -8.5[/TD]
[TD]O 187[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/30/02[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Lakers[/TD]
[TD]W 102-90[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]W -9[/TD]
[TD]O 183.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/01[/TD]
[TD]Golden State[/TD]
[TD]W 92-87[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]L -8[/TD]
[TD]U 187.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/31/00[/TD]
[TD]L.A. Lakers[/TD]
[TD]L 86-96[/TD]
[TD]Regular Season[/TD]
[TD]L -3.5[/TD]
[TD]U 185[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
We'll see if it continues...
D
ddk997
Guest
:shake2:
Pauliethevig
Active Member
There having an SDQL classes in Las Vegas Dec 14,15,16 an 1.5 hours each class for $250 for all 3. I may go. First I want to read the Manual and see if I can figure it out. I do find it interesting.
Pauliethevig
Active Member
Interesting little trend. Small sample size. Small road dogs (+1 to +4) are 30-18 opening night.
Miami +4
Minn +2
Char +1
Denver +3.5
Sac +3
Miami +4
Minn +2
Char +1
Denver +3.5
Sac +3
And just as an aside, I already booked three totals for Wednesday, but won't post them until then, so for those interested: Min/Mem O 202½ -110, Cha/Mil U 199½ -120, Hou/LAL O 206½ -110 (expecting the numbers to climb in Memphis and Los Angeles).
I bet Hou/LAL over 206.5 on Sunday with 5dimes. Total went off the board that night and reappeared this afternoon at 222!
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
First of all, thanks to everyone for all the well wishes and kind words (haven't seen this much activity in one of my threads since I posted my North Korean K-League total of the year in the Soccer Forum a few years back...) - good luck to all of you this season as well. Second, I just realized I misspoke earlier when I said I'd already booked those three totals for tonight - I was going to book them after I posted (jumped the gun a little on that one) but, as XhuegoX pointed out, they were pulled right afterwards. Don't think it matters much as I suspect those bets get voided due to "bad" lines, but anyways...
Also, those other two are now a bit unbettable for my taste, so just going to stick with the total in Milwaukee (T-Wolves went something like 1-6 O/U during the preseason, so the line re-opening under the previous number gave me cause for concern, and the jump from 206 to 223 at Staples (obviously a bad line) is a lot higher than I would have liked, so...)
Anyways, the under went 3-1 between the Hornets and Bucks last season, and don't see any real reason for that trend to change tonight. Charlotte lost a significant amount of offense with the departures of Al Jefferson and Jeremy Lin, and their only real additions were on the defensive end with the signing of Roy Hibbert and the return to health of Michael Kidd Gilchrist. As for the Bucks, what a shit show they were on offense during the preseason without Khris Middleton, so not expecting the numbers to improve against a quality defensive opponent like the Hornets. And speaking of numbers, I know preseason stats need to be taken with a grain of salt but man... These are not good no matter how you slice it: Milwaukee and Charlotte 27th and 30th respectively in offensive efficiency, Milwaukee and Charlotte 29th and 30th respectively in effective field goal percentage, and Milwaukee and Charlotte 30th and 21st respectively in pace. What makes that even worse than it sounds is that, for the most part, both teams were playing their regular rotations quality minutes throughout the majority of the preseason. It's one thing to show poor numbers while your backups are in there, it's quite another when your starters can't score either. Have a really hard time picturing either team breaking 97 points in this one.
Good luck.
Also, those other two are now a bit unbettable for my taste, so just going to stick with the total in Milwaukee (T-Wolves went something like 1-6 O/U during the preseason, so the line re-opening under the previous number gave me cause for concern, and the jump from 206 to 223 at Staples (obviously a bad line) is a lot higher than I would have liked, so...)
Anyways, the under went 3-1 between the Hornets and Bucks last season, and don't see any real reason for that trend to change tonight. Charlotte lost a significant amount of offense with the departures of Al Jefferson and Jeremy Lin, and their only real additions were on the defensive end with the signing of Roy Hibbert and the return to health of Michael Kidd Gilchrist. As for the Bucks, what a shit show they were on offense during the preseason without Khris Middleton, so not expecting the numbers to improve against a quality defensive opponent like the Hornets. And speaking of numbers, I know preseason stats need to be taken with a grain of salt but man... These are not good no matter how you slice it: Milwaukee and Charlotte 27th and 30th respectively in offensive efficiency, Milwaukee and Charlotte 29th and 30th respectively in effective field goal percentage, and Milwaukee and Charlotte 30th and 21st respectively in pace. What makes that even worse than it sounds is that, for the most part, both teams were playing their regular rotations quality minutes throughout the majority of the preseason. It's one thing to show poor numbers while your backups are in there, it's quite another when your starters can't score either. Have a really hard time picturing either team breaking 97 points in this one.
Good luck.
D
ddk997
Guest
:shake2:
Pauliethevig
Active Member
hugh, may I ask even during preseason I see -120 I don't understand. Tell me to mind my own business NP I just don't understand it doesn't seem your buying anything.
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
I'm pretty much just buying the hook to avoid wasting three hours of my life on a push, that's all. I know it's not overly 'sharp' to do so but, the way I've always looked at it, if I lose, it means I didn't do a thorough enough job of researching my pick (like tonight for example, or even last night with Portland for that matter if you want to get technical). That 10 cents or whatever is inconsequential to me in the grand scheme of things (the old "juice doesn't matter if you win" adage), because if I can't post a decent enough hit rate, I'm losing no matter what.
Now as for why I don't bet at Pinnacle exclusively, which a few people have asked me in the past, it's because... I tend to get a little carried away with live betting soccer, so seeing as how 5Dimes has a pretty crappy live betting platform (for soccer at least), I don't have to worry about that problem with them.
It's a valid question, and no offense taken at all but, like I said, the way I've always looked at it, if I lose, I deserve to lose, so that 10 cents isn't going to keep me up at night (someone telling me they're tailing my pick and it loses, that keeps me up at night...) If I were betting a couple grand a night, sure it would make a difference in the long run, but at 100 a game, meh... I can live with the consequences.
At least I'm smart enough not to book my action at bet365 with their 20 cent lines on American sports, LOL...
:shake2:
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 1-1, -0.20
Thursday:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wVWazHTunSI" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
10/27/2016 10:30 PM NBA Basketball 506 Portland Trail Blazers* +110 vs Los Angeles Clippers
Thanks Metallica and ddk.
Thursday:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wVWazHTunSI" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
10/27/2016 10:30 PM NBA Basketball 506 Portland Trail Blazers* +110 vs Los Angeles Clippers
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Adding:
10/27/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 508 Sacramento Kings* Under 96½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs
*Just about never works out with these add on games (see my preseason thread for more detail) but, the more I think about it, the more this one seems to make sense. Kings on a B2B from Phoenix, have only scored more than 96 once in their last nine against the Spurs (which is pretty bad considering the last 5 would have been played at a fairly elevated pace under George Karl), and opening night at Golden 1 Center with (somewhat) unfamiliar rims and shooting backgrounds (2 games during preseason - 1 against Maccabi Haifa from the Israeli League where they scored 135, so you can pretty much throw that one out the window, and 89 against the Clippers in their preseason finale where both team's starters played regular minutes).
Obviously, the defensive intensity on the part of the Spurs won't be the same as against the Warriors on Opening Night, but still think the Kings will be hard pressed to top that number (unless Popovich decides to put Pau Gasol on DeMarcus Cousins, in which case I might as well just tear up my ticket now...)
Thanks Play2win.
10/27/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 508 Sacramento Kings* Under 96½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs
*Just about never works out with these add on games (see my preseason thread for more detail) but, the more I think about it, the more this one seems to make sense. Kings on a B2B from Phoenix, have only scored more than 96 once in their last nine against the Spurs (which is pretty bad considering the last 5 would have been played at a fairly elevated pace under George Karl), and opening night at Golden 1 Center with (somewhat) unfamiliar rims and shooting backgrounds (2 games during preseason - 1 against Maccabi Haifa from the Israeli League where they scored 135, so you can pretty much throw that one out the window, and 89 against the Clippers in their preseason finale where both team's starters played regular minutes).
Obviously, the defensive intensity on the part of the Spurs won't be the same as against the Warriors on Opening Night, but still think the Kings will be hard pressed to top that number (unless Popovich decides to put Pau Gasol on DeMarcus Cousins, in which case I might as well just tear up my ticket now...)
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 2-2, -0.20
Friday:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o_1aF54DO60" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
10/28/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 709 Charlotte Hornets/Miami Heat* Under 198½ -120
10/28/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 714 Utah Jazz* -8½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers
10/28/2016 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 715 Golden State Warriors* -9½ -110 vs New Orleans Pelicans
Thanks kj.
Friday:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o_1aF54DO60" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
10/28/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 709 Charlotte Hornets/Miami Heat* Under 198½ -120
10/28/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 714 Utah Jazz* -8½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers
10/28/2016 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 715 Golden State Warriors* -9½ -110 vs New Orleans Pelicans
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
YTD: 2-2, -0.20
Friday:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o_1aF54DO60" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
10/28/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 709 Charlotte Hornets/Miami Heat* Under 198½ -120
10/28/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 714 Utah Jazz* -8½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers
10/28/2016 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 715 Golden State Warriors* -9½ -110 vs New Orleans Pelicans
Thanks kj.
Hugh, any opinion on that Brooklyn total? I have it a couple of points higher...also thoughts on Dallas? Seems too low that line.
Also - Auston Matthews is an absolute gem (replying to your earlier comment), you passed on a heck og a game
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Hey gsro. I'm rushed for time (have to battle the snow outside to get to work, FML), but I liked both of them when I first saw the schedule. Now that I see the totals, not so much. Problem isn't with Indiana and Houston, obviously, it's with Brooklyn and Dallas (both those benches are abysmal). Then again, won't be much defense played by any of the teams, so who knows. Good luck if you decide to play them.
:shake2:
:shake2:
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
thanks for the response, we got wet snow in parts of Toronto yesterday. BOL on the roads, get those winters out haha
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Adding:
10/28/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 711 Houston Rockets* Over 54 -110 vs Dallas Mavericks for 2nd Half
*Pretty high scoring considering how passive they're being (38 shots?) Hopefully Harden decides to get the others involved on offense in the 2H.
Thanks gsro and Metallica.
10/28/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 711 Houston Rockets* Over 54 -110 vs Dallas Mavericks for 2nd Half
*Pretty high scoring considering how passive they're being (38 shots?) Hopefully Harden decides to get the others involved on offense in the 2H.
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 3-4-1, -1.40
Saturday:
<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/trinU3VD1Zo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
10/29/2016 12:35 PM NBA Basketball 501 Atlanta Hawks* -7½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Indiana Pacers/Chicago Bulls* Over 208½ -110
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets* Over 211½ -110
Saturday:
<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/trinU3VD1Zo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
10/29/2016 12:35 PM NBA Basketball 501 Atlanta Hawks* -7½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Indiana Pacers/Chicago Bulls* Over 208½ -110
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets* Over 211½ -110
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
*Why is it when I need a mysterious foul at the end of the game for the miracle cover it never happens (2 losses and 1 push by one possession each)? For as long I live, I will never forget the night in Salt Lake when Dell Curry (Steph's dad) intentionally (intentionally!) fouled with the Hornets down 8 and less than a second left on the game clock. And who does he decide to foul? Oh, just the greatest free throw shooter in the history of the NBA in Jeff Hornacek. Sinks 1, sinks 2, and the Jazz cover the -9.5 costing me a winning parlay ticket for close to 1200 dollars. And so began a lifetime of misery and heartache courtesy of the National Basketball Association...
Anyways, I don't have to time to writeup the Hawks game (I'll do the other ones later), but I'll be adding the Sixers team total under later on (basic math tells me it's going to be either 97.5 or 98, so it's not lined yet because?) and the Bucks (think the line continues to drop to around 5.5).
Anyways, I don't have to time to writeup the Hawks game (I'll do the other ones later), but I'll be adding the Sixers team total under later on (basic math tells me it's going to be either 97.5 or 98, so it's not lined yet because?) and the Bucks (think the line continues to drop to around 5.5).
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 5-4-1, +0.60
Updating:
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Brooklyn Nets* Under 98½ -110 vs Milwaukee Bucks
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Milwaukee Bucks* -7½ -110 vs Brooklyn Nets
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Indiana Pacers/Chicago Bulls* Over 208½ -110
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 513 New Orleans Pelicans* Under 96 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets* Over 211½ -110
Updating:
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Brooklyn Nets* Under 98½ -110 vs Milwaukee Bucks
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Milwaukee Bucks* -7½ -110 vs Brooklyn Nets
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Indiana Pacers/Chicago Bulls* Over 208½ -110
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 513 New Orleans Pelicans* Under 96 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs
10/29/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets* Over 211½ -110
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
*Lot more games than I wanted to bet, but what can you do...
Indiana/Chicago trends under the past two seasons (2-6 O/U) but, at the same time, they played each other at break neck speed in the two preseason games (yeah, I know, preseason, but even though the players may change, the pace is what matters).
I trust the Bucks to beat the Nets about as much as I trust a team composed of me, nbafan, BAR, tuck and divol to beat the Warriors, but it's one of the situations I outlined at the start of the thread (Nets in B2B, 3 in 4), so rather than watch a repeat of the preseason where I kept passing on spots only to watch them win, we'll go with it. Plus, with Brook Lopez out for rest (*sigh*), can't see Brooklyn continuing to put up the kind of unsustainable offensive production they have been since the start of the preseason.
Pelicans off a big offensive night against the Warriors, but that should change with the Spurs home opener for a few reasons: a) what Anthony Davis has done his first two games this season is obviously on the other side of unreal but, let's face it, it's unsustainable over a three game stretch, b) if the Spurs do manage to contain Davis within reason (and considering they 'limited' him to 21.7 points per game in 3 games last season, there's no great reason to think they won't), the rest of the team better step up as they've been held to 40.1% shooting (51-127) while Davis has accounted for 43.9% of the Pelicans offense thus far, c) in the four games last season, the Spurs held New Orleans to an average of 94.8 points (twice over 96, twice below) and d) Tim Duncan being gone changes things, to an extent, but let's not forget that the Spurs were the most dominant defensive team at home last season, leading the league in points allowed (91.2 per game) and defensive efficiency (97.3)
In the last two seasons, the over's gone 6-2 between Portland and Denver (2-1 at Pepsi Center), so no reason to think the trend doesn't continue tonight, especially given how atrocious the Blazers defense has been the first two games (when Joe Johnson is dropping 29 on you like it's 2008, you got problems...) The Nuggets, meanwhile, look like they could end up being a top 10 offense this season, especially if the duo of Josef Nurkic and Nikola Jokic can produce in the paint, and Will Barton continues to look all world.
As for tomorrow, looking like OKC (nbafan's religious angle - don't look at me like that, talk to him... : ) and the over in Houston (looks like Dirk plays tomorrow, and can't picture D'Antoni willing to let the Mavs dictate the pace again - Dallas was '7 seconds or less' on the shot clock from the looks of it last night).
Indiana/Chicago trends under the past two seasons (2-6 O/U) but, at the same time, they played each other at break neck speed in the two preseason games (yeah, I know, preseason, but even though the players may change, the pace is what matters).
I trust the Bucks to beat the Nets about as much as I trust a team composed of me, nbafan, BAR, tuck and divol to beat the Warriors, but it's one of the situations I outlined at the start of the thread (Nets in B2B, 3 in 4), so rather than watch a repeat of the preseason where I kept passing on spots only to watch them win, we'll go with it. Plus, with Brook Lopez out for rest (*sigh*), can't see Brooklyn continuing to put up the kind of unsustainable offensive production they have been since the start of the preseason.
Pelicans off a big offensive night against the Warriors, but that should change with the Spurs home opener for a few reasons: a) what Anthony Davis has done his first two games this season is obviously on the other side of unreal but, let's face it, it's unsustainable over a three game stretch, b) if the Spurs do manage to contain Davis within reason (and considering they 'limited' him to 21.7 points per game in 3 games last season, there's no great reason to think they won't), the rest of the team better step up as they've been held to 40.1% shooting (51-127) while Davis has accounted for 43.9% of the Pelicans offense thus far, c) in the four games last season, the Spurs held New Orleans to an average of 94.8 points (twice over 96, twice below) and d) Tim Duncan being gone changes things, to an extent, but let's not forget that the Spurs were the most dominant defensive team at home last season, leading the league in points allowed (91.2 per game) and defensive efficiency (97.3)
In the last two seasons, the over's gone 6-2 between Portland and Denver (2-1 at Pepsi Center), so no reason to think the trend doesn't continue tonight, especially given how atrocious the Blazers defense has been the first two games (when Joe Johnson is dropping 29 on you like it's 2008, you got problems...) The Nuggets, meanwhile, look like they could end up being a top 10 offense this season, especially if the duo of Josef Nurkic and Nikola Jokic can produce in the paint, and Will Barton continues to look all world.
As for tomorrow, looking like OKC (nbafan's religious angle - don't look at me like that, talk to him... : ) and the over in Houston (looks like Dirk plays tomorrow, and can't picture D'Antoni willing to let the Mavs dictate the pace again - Dallas was '7 seconds or less' on the shot clock from the looks of it last night).
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
YTD: 8-7-1, +0.30
Sunday:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EM4vblG6BVQ" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
10/30/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 710 Oklahoma City Thunder* -7½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers
10/30/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 713 Dallas Mavericks/Houston Rockets* Over 216½ -110
Sunday:
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EM4vblG6BVQ" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="320" width="480"></iframe>
10/30/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 710 Oklahoma City Thunder* -7½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers
10/30/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 713 Dallas Mavericks/Houston Rockets* Over 216½ -110
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
*Fairly mediocre start to the regular season (remind me not to bet Bucks games anymore...) Anyways, Lakers getting way too much respect (or Thunder not enough, one or the other) with that line (should be 9.5 as far as I'm concerned). OKC's bigs should have their way inside against the likes of Mozgov, and Brandon Ingram potentially being out changes the dynamic of the Lakers second string (if I get beat by Marcelo Huertas, I deserve to lose). Mavs/Rockets should be a higher scoring affair than the game on Friday when Nowitzki sat out and Bogut got into foul trouble early. Hopefully Harden decides to get the others involved on offense instead of jacking up bricks like he was in the 1H (Ryan Anderson with 5 shots, Eric Gordon with 9. C'mon...) Other thing that should change is the pace with Houston being at home (Mavs went deep into the shot clock most of the 1H to try and disrupt the Rockets rhythm, but can't picture D'Antoni letting that happen two games in a row).
Only other bet that interests me tomorrow is the Warriors 1H team total (should be somewhere between 57.5 and 58.5 I would think). After lollygagging to start their first two games (that's right, you heard me, lollygagging...), I'd expect them to come out in full force and put up one of those 70 point 1H's like we all know they're capable of doing (and considering they put up 1H totals of 75, 59, 57, and 60 in the four games against the Suns last season, I'd say it's more than doable).
Only other bet that interests me tomorrow is the Warriors 1H team total (should be somewhere between 57.5 and 58.5 I would think). After lollygagging to start their first two games (that's right, you heard me, lollygagging...), I'd expect them to come out in full force and put up one of those 70 point 1H's like we all know they're capable of doing (and considering they put up 1H totals of 75, 59, 57, and 60 in the four games against the Suns last season, I'd say it's more than doable).
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
No real idea. Do not see them taking the game seriously but if they run too much Suns will be out of gas for the Clipper game tomorrow. Oddly I see these teams as somewhat friendly. Suns will need about the first third of the season to become somewhat stable
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
*That 2H in Houston pretty much sums up my start to the regular season (thought the score wasn't refreshing on my phone until I realized the clock was still moving...) As for the game at the ACC, meh... The Raptors are one of those teams I really have no handle on, but all the relevant trends point to the over, and opposing front courts have done damage against them the first two games, so expecting pretty much the same out of Gallinari, Jokic and Nurkic. As for the Nuggets, don't think there's much doubt about them being an over team this season (they can score, but that defense isn't much to write home about), so expecting the Raptors to put up some points as well in what should be a fairly fast paced game.
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