December 2016

[hugh613]

*I don't know, but when a team thoroughly dismantles an opponent time and time again the way the Raptors have the Sixers the past few seasons, think it's only logical to expect the trend to continue.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/14/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 517 Oklahoma City Thunder/Utah Jazz* Under 198½ -110 *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 85-82-1, +1.68

Thursday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pAgnJDJN4VA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/15/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 707 Portland Trail Blazers/Denver Nuggets* Over 220½ -110 *2 UNITS*

 

[Pauliethevig]

How come I'm not surprise there's a + in your record:claphands:. Great Job. I was with you on Toronto did you like that win.

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Paulie - should last for all of one night : ) And, yes, the Raptors were up 19 when I decided to switch over to the hockey game. By the time I switched back, the lead was down to 5... Same goes for the Jazz game as I believe they were at 188 with a minute left, then somehow managed to squeak under the number. Better to be lucky than good I suppose. Hope all has been well with you and thanks for the continued support.

:shake2:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 86-82-1, +3.68

Friday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TOypSnKFHrE" allowfullscreen="" width="480" height="320" frameborder="0"></iframe>

12/16/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 506 Toronto Raptors* -6½ -120 vs Atlanta Hawks *2 UNITS*

 

[BJPLAYER]

keep it up my man....good to see you hitting it well

 

[Tito]

gl tonight hugh :shake2:

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/16/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 506 Toronto Raptors* -7½ -121 vs Atlanta Hawks for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

*Considering they smoked them by 40+ two weeks ago, yeah, this is a bit of a shocker but seeing as how I'm stubborn, let's see if the Raptors can make a game of it...

Thanks BJ and Tito.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 87-83-1, +3.28

Adding:

12/16/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 519 Dallas Mavericks/Utah Jazz* Under 94½ -117 for 1st Half *2 UNITS*

*I'll be honest, the only reason I'm going 1H is so I don't have to stay up the whole game. Kind of risky because of how well Utah's been shooting as of late, but nbastuffer's got them both bottom 5 in terms of pace the last five games, so if the defenses can step up even just a bit, think this one stands a decent shot at topping out in the mid 80's. If not, well, better luck tomorrow...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 87-84-1, +0.94

Saturday:

DND - REST

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 87-84-1, +0.94

Sunday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RFGo5cqcxP4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/18/2016 3:35 PM NBA Basketball 501 Los Angeles Clippers* -5½ -110 vs Washington Wizards *2 UNITS*

*Well, at least I thought the joke I made yesterday was funny...

 

[Hulu]

*Well, at least I thought the joke I made yesterday was funny...

Just like with Lebron...the fans were disappointed

I lean this way as well.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/18/2016 6:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies* Under 185½ -120 *2 UNITS*

Thanks Hulu.

 

[hugh613]

*Fully expecting the Wizards to cover the 5.5 at this point, if not win SU (it is what it is...) Anyways, hate to go against my buddy Hulu, but this line makes no sense to me given how well the Jazz have been doing on offense as of late. The H2H trends point to under and I'm really expecting Memphis to get physical and turn this into more of a grind it out type ball game here. If it ends up flying over the total, won't be the first time I've misread a line and I'm sure it won't be the last.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/18/2016 6:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Brooklyn Nets/Philadelphia 76ers* Over 113½ -110 for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 88-86-1, -1.46

Monday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cs72v-2zjsg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/19/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Detroit Pistons* +3½ -120 vs Chicago Bulls *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

*That was a nice couple of days back to profitibality, SMH... Anyways, think this line moves quite a bit by tip off because there's literally no way in H E double hockey sticks that the Bulls should be favoured over anyone at this point, regardless of them being at home. And, yeah, it's easy to say they should come out focused after the two drubbings against the Bucks, but the night to show up should've been Friday, not tonight - the fact that they didn't speaks volumes about them right now. As for the Pistons, in a bit of a tailspin of their own, but they're 7-1 ATS the last 8 overall against the Bulls, and 7-1 ATS their last 8 visits to United Center, so seems like the perfect opportunity to get the ball rolling again. Think they win outright, but there's no ML available at 5Dimes, so might as well take the points.

 

[BJPLAYER]

gl hugh....thought the same when i saw the line

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/19/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 709 Dallas Mavericks/Denver Nuggets* Over 206½ -120 *2 UNITS*

*The lack of scoring I can accept, but the lack of defensive intensity on the part of the Pistons. I mean, wow, just wow...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 89-87-1, -1.86

Tuesday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eNot47WRBFk" allowfullscreen="" width="480" height="320" frameborder="0"></iframe>

12/20/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 506 Toronto Raptors* -14½ -120 vs Brooklyn Nets
12/20/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 509 Indiana Pacers* +4½ -110 vs New York Knicks
12/20/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 509 Indiana Pacers* Over 102½ -110 vs New York Knicks
12/20/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Boston Celtics/Memphis Grizzlies* Under 194½ -110

Thanks BJ.

 

[hugh613]

*Think it's time to give up on the one bet a night thing - too many missed opportunities while I was doing well, and too much scrambling last minute to find a chase play when play number one goes up in flames after 5 minutes like last night.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/20/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 521 Utah Jazz/Golden State Warriors* Under 210½ -120

*That's what you like to see: 4-0 if I'd gone 1H, now I'll be lucky if I manage to juice out. The fun never ends...

 

[Metallica]

BOL on the late game Hugh.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 91-90-1, -3.26

Wednesday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K6AJuRK2NE4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/21/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 703 Memphis Grizzlies/Detroit Pistons* Under 187½ -110
12/21/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 711 Houston Rockets* -6½ -110 vs Phoenix Suns
12/21/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 711 Houston Rockets* Over 117½ -110 vs Phoenix Suns

Thanks Metallica.

 

[Hulu]

You've got me looking at that Hou team total over. Its going to be a fast paced game for sure but if the Suns get down big they may just fart around taking dumb shots. Good luck tonight bud.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 94-90-1, -0.26

Thursday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ee_uujKuJMI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/22/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Boston Celtics/Indiana Pacers* Under 210½ -110
12/22/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 506 Brooklyn Nets* Under 108½ -110 vs Golden State Warriors
12/22/2016 10:30 PM NBA Basketball 509 San Antonio Spurs/Los Angeles Clippers* Over 204½ -110

Thanks Hulu.

 

[hugh613]

*Hate playing Boston totals as they're one of the most consistently inconsistent teams this season when it comes to scoring (score 18 one quarter, score 34 the next), but the numbers all point towards the under in this one, so might as well: both teams bottom 10 in terms of ORtg the L5, both teams top ten in terms of DRtg the L5, the under 4-0 the L4 in Indiana, the under 19-7-1 the last 27 H2H (including the L7 in a row), C's 7-10 O/U on the road, Pacers 6-9 O/U at home. Also, Boston with three straight OT games, and Indiana in 3/4, so legs should start to buckle as the game wears on.

Was tempted to just play the Warriors ATS as pretty much all the power numbers have them in the 18-20 range, but meh... I'm never one for the 'obvious' play (some would say stubborn, I would say stupid), but between this being the first game of their Eastern swing, as well as the fact the Nets have played them pretty tight the past few seasons, I'll take a soft pass on that. What seems to make a bit more sense is the Nets TT under as the Warriors are sporting the best DRtg in the league the L5, and it's not even close: 95.4 vs. a league average of 109.8. Always a bit risky taking an under in what should theoretically be a fast paced game, but Golden State should be able to counter two of the Nets biggest offensive assets (FT attempts and 3 pt shooting). Couple that with the increased number of turnovers they're likely to commit, and I'm not sure the Nets even manage to make it to 100.

As for Spurs/Clippers, don't have as much 'insight' (if you can call it that) on this one, but the over's 7-3 the L10 at Staples, so there's that. Plus, San Antonio's offense is starting to kick in again, so hopefully they don't screw me like they have all season. Just feels like it should be more in the 208-213 range, so we'll see what happens.

 

[BJPLAYER]

nice hit yesterday hugh....i hear what you are saying on the c's.....maddeningly inconsistent on totals and I have guessed wrong more than correctly....still like under tonight....as for the spurs total I got them right the other night for the first time in a long time....I swear Pop is the toughest guy to figure what he is going with on any given night or more likely I'm just a nitwit....good luck tonight and the best of holidays to you and yours

 

[Hulu]

I've looked at that Boston total all day and I feel like it should be lined in the 204-207 range but they've just been so inconsistent. Still mulling it over.

With you all the way on the Spurs over. BOL tonight

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Should have waited two days for Train in Vain for karma, Joe Strummer died 14 years ago today. Great band.

 

[hugh613]

Thanks BJ and Hulu. And tip, I'll have you know that I use a very sophisticated algorithm to determine each day's musical selection (ie. the 'shuffle' on my iPhone). Blame technology for that one...

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 96-91-1, +0.64

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zvCBSSwgtg4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/23/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Chicago Bulls/Charlotte Hornets* Under 203½ -120
12/23/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 715 Houston Rockets/Memphis Grizzlies* Under 205½ -120
12/23/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 723 Toronto Raptors* -1½ -110 vs Utah Jazz

 

[hugh613]

*Not sure how I'm supposed to feel about last night: won a bet I shouldn't have won and lost a bet I shouldn't have lost. Hopefully things are a little more straightforward tonight. Anyways, not much time for writeups, but I'll probably add the over at Moda once it gets lined later on.

And as there are no games tomorrow, Happy Holidays to everyone at CTG!

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[Pauliethevig]

I was with you on the Over in the Clip/Sas game and really didn't like what I was seeing from SAS and played under 108.5 in the 2nd H to get out of the bet and surprise, surprise. Happy Holidays to you also hugh and the rest of the guys at CTG.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/23/2016 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 725 San Antonio Spurs/Portland Trail Blazers* Over 212½ -110

Thanks Metallica and Paulie.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 98-93-1, +0.34

Sunday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MYSVMgRr6pw" allowfullscreen="" width="480" height="320" frameborder="0"></iframe>

12/25/2016 12:05 PM NBA Basketball 502 New York Knicks* Under 104 -110 vs Boston Celtics

Happy Holidays Everyone!

 

[hugh613]

*Think I'll make a play on every game as the day goes along (unless I start 0-3, in which case I'll see you tomorrow...) First up, Boston with the 2nd best DRtg in the league the past 5 games, and New York with one of those anomalous stat lines (top third in pace but bottom third in ORtg the last five games). The C's defense has done an admirable job of keeping the Knicks offense in check the past few seasons, and Kristaps Porzingis with a banged up knee, so not expecting too much in the way of offense from New York, especially with the early start time.

Now, having said all that, the Celtics have been a huge mystery to me all season long (which is why I laid off them ATS or the FT under), but after getting torched by Russell Westbrook at home the other night after having played so well defensively for so long, think Brad Stevens has them ratchet up the intensity in this one.

 

[Metallica]

BOL today and Merry Christmas Hugh.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/25/2016 2:35 PM NBA Basketball 503 Golden State Warriors* -3½ -110 vs Cleveland Cavaliers

*Fuck the Celtics and that weak ass 2H defense...

Thanks Metallica - same to you bud.

 

[tuck321]

Think you win and it goes under. GL

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 98-95-1, -1.86

Adding:

12/25/2016 5:05 PM NBA Basketball 505 Chicago Bulls* Under 49 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs for 2nd Half

*Looks like Santa left a lump of coal in my stocking to start the day...

Thanks tuck.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 98-96-1, -2.96

Monday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l-EdCNjumvI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/26/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 707 Charlotte Hornets* -6½ -120 vs Brooklyn Nets
12/26/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 712 Houston Rockets* -12½ -120 vs Phoenix Suns
12/26/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 713 Atlanta Hawks/Minnesota Timberwolves* Under 211½ -110
12/26/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 715 Indiana Pacers/Chicago Bulls* Under 207½ -110
12/26/2016 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 717 Toronto Raptors/Portland Trail Blazers* Over 216½ -110

 

[hugh613]

*For whatever reason, the odds of me going 1-4 are so much greater than me going 4-1 whenever I bet this many games, but it is what it is...

 

[Hulu]

Good luck tonight Hugh. Really not against any of those plays. I think you go 3-2 at worst but what the hell do I know.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

12/26/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 721 Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Clippers* Over 107½ -110 for 1st Half

Thanks Hulu.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 102-98-1, -1.26

Tuesday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Dv_cvxAAZ-Y" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

12/27/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 505 Houston Rockets/Dallas Mavericks* Under 210½ -110
12/27/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 506 Dallas Mavericks* Under 102 -110 vs Houston Rockets

 

[hugh613]

*This is one of those games where you do a writeup, then it finishes 120-110 and you wonder what the point of doing a writeup was in the first place, but anyways...

Not for the feint of heart, but if you look at the three previous games this season, two things stand out: a) all three games went under by a minimum of 13 points and b) the reason all three went under wasn't so much stellar defense on the part of either team but, rather, Dallas being able to impose its pace on the game and Houston willing to oblige.

In the first three meetings, the Rockets were limited to 96, 97 and 88 possessions respectively for an average of 94.1 (would have been even lower if not for the spike in possessions at the end of two of those games). Contrast this with their season average of 101.1, and clearly Rick Carlisle was successful in implementing his game plan, even though the end result went against his favour. Admittedly, pace means nothing if you can't get stops on defense (the Mavs with zero fast break points against New Orleans last night and held the Pelicans to 70 shots, but gave up 111 points on 52.9% shooting including 48.0% from beyond the arc), but the two teams obviously match up well, so no reason to think this one should be any different.

As for the Mavs team total, if their game plan is to walk the ball up the court to disrupt the Rockets offensive rhythm, my thinking is they'll have to shoot well over 50% to get to that number, and without Bogut and (possibly) Nowitzki on the floor, not sure how that happens especially in a B2B situation.

Might make a play on the Jazz should both of these go up in flames, but hopefully it won't come to that...

 

[Tito]

bol hugh :shake: