November 2016

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/27/2016 3:35 PM NBA Basketball 704 Phoenix Suns* -125 vs Denver Nuggets

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Hulu - have fun at the game.

 

[BJPLAYER]

good to see you heating up hugh....tailed again yesterday as family and a golf game kept me out of the capping game...thank you...looks like we eked out a win with the warriors, didn't see the end

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/27/2016 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 715 Atlanta Hawks* -2½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers for 1st Half

Thanks BJ.

 

[hugh613]

*Have to get back to my viewing party (we might actually pull this off!), but figured I'd put one more in for tonight, as there's literally nothing tomorrow night that I like, other than the under in Minneapolis which I just locked in at 196.5 -120. Definite look ahead for the Hawks with the Warriors on deck, but after that miserable showing in Salt Lake, just a gut feeling the Hawks respond early in this one to rest up for tomorrow night. ATL's held the HT lead in their last 4 against LAL, all by 3 points or more (including a 9 point lead at Phillips at the start of the month which they then proceeded to piss away in the 2H). Plus there's some goofy 1H trend against the Lakers at scoresandodds after they get blown out

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 63-58-1, -3.32

Monday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5Us14kEW0PM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

11/28/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Utah Jazz/Minnesota Timberwolves* Under 196½ -120
11/28/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 Utah Jazz/Minnesota Timberwolves* Under 196½ -130

 

[hugh613]

*Just looking through the boxscore, freaking Dennis Schroeder and his idiotic haircut ended up killing that Hawks 1H bet. And, of course, the curse of the 'add on' game strikes again...

Anyways, making the under in Minneapolis my first 2 Unit play of the regular season (the line's dropped, hence the double post - and yeah, yeah, I know what you're thinking about the juice, but kind of defeats the purpose if on the off chance it lands on 196. My own fault for not doubling down when I first bought it...) Under 3-1 H2H last season and 6-2-1 the last nine at Target Center. Jazz with a renewed commitment to defense their last five games, holding opponents to 38.8% shooting, while the T-Wolves have failed to break the 100 point barrier in four of their last five. And speaking of last five, both Minnesota and Utah ranking in the bottom third the past 5 games in ORtg, Drtg and Pace stats, so safe to assume both teams would need to shoot lights out to get this game over. I capped in the 185-189 range (not that it means much of anything), so let's see what happens.

Will also be on the Warriors as well once that gets lined (think 8.5 is about right, but probably opens closer to 10). Hopefully the Hawks over exert themselves trying to get back into this game to pave the way for another Warriors blowout.

 

[BJPLAYER]

tailing you again hugh, believe it or not I was 5-0 on cherry picking your plays last week so right now you are my best friend :cheers3: horford out for the c's and that worries me but still want to play them, any opinion on the total in that game, lean under but need to work a little more. once again thank you

 

[hugh613]

*Thanks BJ. First of all, nothing makes me happier than to hear that. In a perfect world, people would only tail you when you win, and fade you when you lose, but I know that's not the case. That's one of the reasons I get hesitant about writing stuff up, just because I know I can make it sound good, even though I try to be as objective as possible. The thought of someone ditching their lean on account of some dopey info I pass along does not sit well with me at all...

Now, onto the question at hand. I looked at it for about 5 minutes last night after I kicked everyone out after the football game, and decided I couldn't make sense of the number, so passed. After seeing your inquiry, I've now spent half an hour looking at it since I got home (gee, thanks a lot - I have to get dinner started at some point you know, LOL), and the total still doesn't make any sense to me, especially in light of the fact that it doesn't seem to have moved in step with the total.

Jeff Sagarin has it at 195.75 (Boston 98.38, Miami 97.37); Massey Ratings has it at 195.5 (Boston 96, Miami 99); using overall numbers, I have it a 193.0 (Boston 97.7, Miami 95.3), while using the last five games, I have it at 189.3 (Boston 97.1, Miami 92.2), for a global average of 193.4. Plus when I use the efficiency and pace stats from nbastuffer, it also comes in when under the number.

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 27"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 53"]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 25"]GP [/TD]
[TD="width: 40"]PPG [/TD]
[TD="width: 40"]OPPG [/TD]
[TD="width: 34"]PDIF [/TD]
[TD="width: 36"]PACE [/TD]
[TD="width: 40"]OEFF [/TD]
[TD="width: 40"]DEFF [/TD]
[TD="width: 34"]EDIF [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NBA Average[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]103.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]103.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]94.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]108.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]108.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miami[/TD]
[TD]East[/TD]
[TD]Southeast[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]97.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]102.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]92.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]106.2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]110.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]East[/TD]
[TD]Atlantic[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]99.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]98.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]94.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]104.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]103.9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miami[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]91.8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]101.6[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]93.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]106.7[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]98.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]191.9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Having said that, NONE of those projections take into account the absences of Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow, Hassan Whiteside and Al Horford... So did the linesmakers make a huge mistake on this one? I doubt it, but at the same time, unless it's a Celtics blowout (which it possibly could be if Whiteside sits), I'm not sure what the justification for a 199 is. Boston just finished a run of nine straight unders (the first time they go over just happens to be the one time I hop on the under train - go figure), and pretty much every trend over on the Covers matchup page has Boston trending under. Meanwhile, the Heat are missing three of their top scorers in Dragic, Waiters and Winslow, and as the table shows, it's not likely to be a real up and down game (although for some strange reason, the Heat always seem to have negative correlation between their pace and ORtg - they do more with less, but also don't play fast enough to make it translate into points).

All this is to say... I still have no clue. If Whiteside sits, think it's Celtics or nothing, and don't even bother with the total.

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[Pauliethevig]

I got the stall and then taken down in 2 spots but managed to get Under 201.5 for a little. I would say Whiteside is sitting but it's the NBA and we know how that goes. The line confused me early on (Not hard to do) but I'll bite. Miami coming off the 2nd game where they scored more then 100 all year. This game screams under but you know how that goes. Played the Under in the Utah game also but at a point less. Good Luck hugh, Bj

 

[BJPLAYER]

thanks hugh....excellent analysis....and gl tonight

 

[hugh613]

Thanks Metallica, Paulie and BJ.

Now the second line of the night that has me totally confused: Golden State -14. I guessed 8.5 last night, which would explain why I'm not a linesmaker, but it's almost as if they're daring you to take the points with ATL. I based that number on the fact the Hawks opened up as 8.5 point dogs in Cleveland a few weeks ago (the only comparable team to the Warriors), and the fact that the T-Wolves, a team I consider vastly inferior to the Hawks, were only 12.5 point dogs the other night. So for the Warriors to open up at 14... Admittedly, the Hawks have been taking a nose dive as of late, especially at the offensive end (when you can't score against the Lakers, that pretty much says it all...), and the Warriors are on a different level at the moment, but still...

I'll see if ATL money comes in before I commit myself (plus, it'd be nice to see how the total in Minneapolis plays out as well...)

 

[Pauliethevig]

The NBA is a different game this year at least to me anyway. 79 points in the first half and then 137 points in the 2nd half with a 77 point 3rd quarter. When was the last time you seen a 77 point Q besides the all star game. Miami 42 points in the 3rd. There's been more 40 quarters by teams this year then I've ever remember seeing and 70 point Quarters by two teams, hell the Nets had a 40 quarter about 10 days ago. I'm just surprised I'm only down 7 units on the year. Lets not talk about the 72 point 4th quarter in the Utah game. Well I had Tulsa in the CBB and it's maybe time to start giving the majority of my time to the CBB.
Thanks for letting me rant hugh. Good Luck as always.

 

[hugh613]

No problem Paulie. I kind of feel like the game has passed me by as well the past few seasons with the ushering in of the 'pace and space' era, and not just from a betting perspective. For example, the T-Wolves got into the bonus about 4 minutes into the quarter the other night (think it was against PHX). In the old days, you would've started attacking the rim to either a) force fouls to get to the line or b) clear a path as defenders would be less aggressive. Instead, the T-Wolves got to the line maybe once the remaining 8 minutes, while idiots like Zach Lavine and Nemanja Bjelica were channeling their inner Stephen Curry and settling for step back 3 point attempts instead (and making none). And don't even get me started on where the '2 For 1' has disappeared to at the end of quarters...

The funny part about all this though is that for some bizarre reason, I've started betting unders more consistently the past few seasons which, for those who know me, is pretty out of character as I've almost always been an over bettor. Guess I haven't been able to adjust to higher totals and the fact that even the worst shooting teams are now a danger due to the number of 3's being taken, and that the era of losing a good five seconds off the shot clock while teams pound it down low are gone thanks to the death of the big man. Kind of the same reason I've had trouble with the NFL as I've had trouble adjusting to the fact it's no longer a run first league.

As for last night, I don't even know what to say. Everytime I looked at the screen, it was one foul shot after the other. And like I've said repeatedly this season, fuck that about Thibodeau being a defensive genius. Not as easy when you don't have All Defensive Team players like Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Luol Deng apparently...

Anyways, as for tonight, looking like Cliipers, under in Charlotte and the Magic team total under (again with the unders...)

 

[Hulu]

Solid post Hugh. Most sports (like the world in general) are now changing so fast its difficult to adapt.

I am with you on Orlando TT under. I think that bet is money in the bank.

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 63-60-1, -5.82

Tuesday:

<iframe width="480" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CnQ8N1KacJc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

11/29/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 701 Detroit Pistons/Charlotte Hornets* Under 200½ -120
11/29/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 703 Los Angeles Clippers* -9½ -120 vs Brooklyn Nets
11/29/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 709 Orlando Magic* Under 91 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs

Thanks Hulu.

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[Tito]

hey hugh....gl bud :shake2:

 

[hugh613]

YTD: 63-63-1, -9.32

Wednesday:

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xGytDsqkQY8" allowfullscreen="" width="480" height="320" frameborder="0"></iframe>

11/30/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 505 Detroit Pistons* Under 50 -110 vs Boston Celtics for 1st Half
11/30/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 506 Boston Celtics* -3 -120 vs Detroit Pistons for 1st Half
11/30/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Minnesota Timberwolves* -2½ -105 vs New York Knicks for 1st Half
11/30/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Minnesota Timberwolves* Over 55½ -115 vs New York Knicks for 1st Half

11/30/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 512 Chicago Bulls* -6½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers for 1st Half
11/30/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 512 Chicago Bulls* Over 57 -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers for 1st Half
11/30/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 513 San Antonio Spurs* -5½ -110 vs Dallas Mavericks for 1st Half
11/30/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 514 Dallas Mavericks* Under 43 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs for 1st Half

:idk:

 

[hugh613]

*I honestly have no clue what I'm doing right now (I'm currently in negotiations with Hulu to purchase his "Debacle" thread title)... Anyways, the way I look at it, if I hit the total, I hit the spread; if I don't hit the total, well... And besides, after a night of amazing upsets, the square picks ought to come through with flying colours tonight...

:idk:

 

[BJPLAYER]

gl hugh....like those c's picks

 

[Metallica]

BOL tonight Hugh.

 

[Tito]

get it hugh...bol bud

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/30/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 New York Knicks/Minnesota Timberwolves* Over 102½ -110 for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

*Last night, if I'd gone 1H instead of full time, would've gone 2-1 instead of 0-3. Tonight, would've gone either 6-2 or 5-3 had I gone 1st quarter instead of 1H. Think it's safe to say I've officially gone off the rails...

Thanks BJ, Metallica and Tito.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/30/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 513 San Antonio Spurs* -4½ -110 vs Dallas Mavericks for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/30/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Miami Heat/Denver Nuggets* Over 103½ -110 for 2nd Half *2 UNITS*

 

[Hulu]

I'm with you Hugh, hard to tell which way is up right now. Yesterday I had my card narrowed down to 3 plays but due to lack of confidence or whatever I decided to take a pass. And of course they went 3-0.

I suppose given this, the prudent thing to do would be to stop gambling for a while until I have a feel for the league and some confidence in plays. LOL yeah right like that's going to happen.

Stay the course and it will turn around. If not, they have great soup down at the salvation army.