November 2016

*Thanks Metallica. Well, if the steam's any indication, guess I can already chalk up that Sixers total (which is up to 100.5 at 5Dimes) as a loss. And, yeah, I know what you're thinking - that Pacers defense is terrible. Well, that Sixers offense comes in dead last in PPG and ORtg, as well as missing their most dangerous threat in Joel Embiid. Figured after that shellacking at the hands of the Hornets, Indiana might try to hunker down in this one a bit. Whether or not they actually can is obviously a different matter (kind of like the way I've been blasting Tom Thibodeau's supposed defensive genius...) but when I read stuff like this, I don't know, makes me think they slow the pace down a bit to step up their defensive efforts:

Several Hornets baskets were followed by the Pacers looking at each other with either confusion or irritation. In transition, many Pacers ran back on defense without locating the player they were assigned with guarding. George and C.J. Miles, on separate occasions, raised their arms to ask their teammates who was going to defend the opposing guard dribbling up the court. Both times, no other Pacers answered. George and Miles were left to try to stop the Hornets’ dribble penetration.

Miles’ expression throughout the second half was to look up and shake his head in disgust. George voiced his displeasure in the locker room with sharp criticism for how the Pacers were not a cohesive team.

http://www.indystar.com/story/sport...16/11/07/hornets-have-pacers-number/93418968/

Of course, another way of looking at it would be to say this team is lost, and even a hapless offense like Philadelphia's can take advantage. At least HCA favours the Pacers defense to step it up a bit, maybe... *sigh*

:idk:
 
*I will say, I do like that emoticon. If I have another bad night, maybe I'll start using that one instead of the beer mugs...
 
getting +12 on 2 discombobulated teams seems to be the safer angle wouldnt you think.. 6ers seems to be forming a trend of one of and one on..
 
Good Luck hugh

Played Atl-3 Orlando -2 and Over 108 1st H Indy/Philly

Lets Add Golden St -16 strictly a situational play. 16 points Meh!
 
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traderjoe - To be honest, I've never been overly good with sides, and you pretty much almost never see me taking points (if I don't feel they can win outright, seems pointless to me to say they'll lose, but only by this much...) With regards to the Indiana game, I know it's a risk when a team is as bad defensively as the Pacers but, at the same time, the Sixers are just as equally bad on offense. Yeah, they can shoot the three a bit, but when you're 27th in Overall FG%, and 29th in FTA, you better knock down quite a few if you're going to keep pace with one of the highest scoring teams in the league. As far as the spread goes, most of the power numbers I look at have it at around 11, so it's a fair line. Pacers smashed them in all 3 meetings last year, and just taking a quick look at how Indiana fared last season when they were double digit faves at home, looks like 3-3 (I'd do the Sixers, but I'm assuming they were double digit dogs in just about every road game, so...) Good luck with your pick.

Paulie - Good luck tonight and hope to see you start posting your picks on a regular basis. As one of the elder statesmen of the forum ; ) I'm sure your insight would be well appreciated.
 
traderjoe - To be honest, I've never been overly good with sides, and you pretty much almost never see me taking points (if I don't feel they can win outright, seems pointless to me to say they'll lose, but only by this much...) With regards to the Indiana game, I know it's a risk when a team is as bad defensively as the Pacers but, at the same time, the Sixers are just as equally bad on offense. Yeah, they can shoot the three a bit, but when you're 27th in Overall FG%, and 29th in FTA, you better knock down quite a few if you're going to keep pace with one of the highest scoring teams in the league. As far as the spread goes, most of the power numbers I look at have it at around 11, so it's a fair line. Pacers smashed them in all 3 meetings last year, and just taking a quick look at how Indiana fared last season when they were double digit faves at home, looks like 3-3 (I'd do the Sixers, but I'm assuming they were double digit dogs in just about every road game, so...) Good luck with your pick.

Paulie - Good luck tonight and hope to see you start posting your picks on a regular basis. As one of the elder statesmen of the forum ; ) I'm sure your insight would be well appreciated.

@Hugh

thank you for the detailed response. u obviously know your stuff. im doing my best to learn and your advice is greatly appreciated!!
 
@Hugh

thank you for the detailed response. u obviously know your stuff. im doing my best to learn and your advice is greatly appreciated!!
Thanks traderjoe, but I'm just one person with one opinion (and apparently not an overly good one at that as the Sixers team total is now up to 101. Yeesh!) If your instincts have you trusting the points, don't let me stop you - sometimes your first instinct is the right one before you start getting overloaded with too much information from different sources.

Good luck tonight.

:idk:

Really liking that emoticon, LOL...
 
Adding:

11/9/2016 9:35 PM NBA Basketball 718 San Antonio Spurs* -8½ -110 vs Houston Rockets
11/9/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 719 Portland Trail Blazers/Los Angeles Clippers* Under 209 -110
11/9/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 721 Dallas Mavericks* Under 96 -110 vs Golden State Warriors

:idk:
 
YTD: 27-27-1, -3.20

Thursday:

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11/10/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 503 Chicago Bulls* +1½ -110 vs Miami Heat

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*Won't be surprised to see the Bulls favoured by tip off, so might as well post up now. And don't even get me started on this Spurs game (third time in four home games they've allowed the opposing offense to walk all over them...)
 
Spurs entered a wait and see zone for me from here on out.. i hate losing in that spot. Makes me feel something isnt right just yet. The cover was never a real possibility. A win was really just an aborhation, but they couldn't even get that. Pops has work to do on this bunch. Id imagine it gets settled by xmas..
 
Adding:

11/10/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 505 Golden State Warriors/Denver Nuggets* Over 219½ -110

*Think about my only accomplishment so far during the regular season is resisting the temptation to go bigger on my bets to get things kick started. We'll see how long that lasts if this sh!t show keeps up

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Yeah traderjoe. Not sure if it's the lack of leadership with Tim Duncan gone, or LaMarcus Aldridge causing problems because he's playing second fiddle to Kawhi Leonard, but something's not right with this team at the moment. And hopefully you followed your instincts and took the points with the Sixers last night (the inherent danger of write ups and (potentially) swaying people into losing bets). Good luck tonight bud.
 
Adding:

11/10/2016 8:05 PM NBA Props Basketball 2227 D.Wade points over 17½* -150 vs D.Wade points under 17½

*Might as well go along for the ride with the rest of the forum...

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YTD: 29-28-1, -2.70

Friday:

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11/11/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 711 Los Angeles Clippers* -5 -110 vs Oklahoma City Thunder
11/11/2016 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 716 Portland Trail Blazers* -7 -110 vs Sacramento Kings

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Thanks Metallica.
 
*Feeling a bit lost in the wilderness and, quite frankly, a little burnt out (let's face it, I've been at this about a month longer than everyone else). And it's pretty sad when I'm hoping Wade would stop shooting in order to give the Bulls a better chance of winning.

Anyways, Portland in a 3 IN 4 and coming off that pasting against the Clippers, but seems like as good a bounce back spot as any, especially with the Kings in an even more precarious rest situation (B2B, 3 IN 4, 5 IN 7). Blazers have beaten them in six straight, and covered 7+ in four of the last five, so looking for Portland to crush govt mint (sorry, was just looking at dilaudid's thread before : )


Will also add the Pistons 1H team total under once it gets lined (looking like 46, hopefully 46.5). Spurs with B2B first halves giving up 60+, on top of the 54 they gave up to Utah. At some point, this madness has to stop, so seems like their odds should improve against a poor shooting Detroit team that won't be bringing as much pace with them as the Clippers and Rockets.

And the Clippers, just because...

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Adding:

11/11/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 702 Philadelphia 76ers* Under 104½ -115 vs Indiana Pacers
11/11/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 713 Detroit Pistons* Under 46½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs for 1st Half

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Thanks Metallica.
 
YTD: 29-32-1, -7.15

Saturday:

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11/12/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 Boston Celtics/Indiana Pacers* Over 211½ -110
11/12/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 507 Philadelphia 76ers* Under 97 -110 vs Atlanta Hawks
11/12/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 509 San Antonio Spurs/Houston Rockets* Over 207½ -120
11/12/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 511 Los Angeles Clippers/Minnesota Timberwolves* Over 207½ -110
11/12/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 517 Memphis Grizzlies/Milwaukee Bucks* Over 199½ -120

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*The rate I'm going, I might be in the 90's by the time 90's month wraps up...

Oh, and fuck you PrimeTime.

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YTD: 32-34-1, -6.45

Sunday:

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11/13/2016 3:35 PM NBA Basketball 702 Cleveland Cavaliers* -6½ -120 vs Charlotte Hornets
11/13/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 706 Oklahoma City Thunder* -9½ -110 vs Orlando Magic
11/13/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 710 Portland Trail Blazers* -6½ -120 vs Denver Nuggets

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Thanks BJ.
 
*Walked a pretty fine line between winning and losing last night but, thankfully, it worked out. As for today, pretty odd that the books would have opened the Cavs as high as 8 in some spots considering a number of the reputable power ratings out there only have this in the 6-6.5 range (with HCA factored in). Cleveland's obviously a public team, so that explains part of it, but the other half of the explanation is as simple as looking at the Hornets' strength of schedule: a 6-2 start to the season built upon wins against some of the worst teams in the league (Milwaukee, Miami, Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Indiana). Admittedly, a win is a win is a win, and the Hornets can't help what the schedule makers put out there, but the 6-2 obviously not as impressive when you start breaking it down. As for the Cavs, bounce back win in DC after the loss at home to the Hawks, and they've gone 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS, 3-1 ATS last season, 3-1 ATS at the Q the last two seasons) against Charlotte the past two seasons, so looking for the Cavs to come out strong at home and prove the linesmakers were right in the first place.

As for the Thunder and Blazers, I've written those two up enough times to start the season, but the Thunder line should be closer to -12.5 in my opinion (the Magic are just terrible) and the Blazers, well, just because although, having said that, everytime I bet against the Nuggets, Emmanuel Mudiay plays like Michael Jordan and when I bet on them, Emmanuel Mudiay plays like, well, Emmanuel Mudiay. Guess we'll see what happens.

And, oh yeah, fuck you PrimeTime...

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YTD: 34-35-1, -5.55

Monday:

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11/14/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Houston Rockets* -11½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers
11/14/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 510 Houston Rockets* Over 112½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers
11/14/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 516 Los Angeles Clippers* -14½ -110 vs Brooklyn Nets

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Thanks Metallica.
 
Adding:

11/14/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 503 Oklahoma City Thunder* -135 vs Detroit Pistons
11/14/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 511 Miami Heat* Under 90½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs

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Thanks gsro, Metallica, and nba.
 
90's Month Continues...

YTD: 38-36-1, -2.90

Tuesday:

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11/15/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 704 Miami Heat* Under 97 -110 vs Atlanta Hawks
11/15/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 706 Minnesota Timberwolves* +1 -115 vs Charlotte Hornets for 1st Half
11/15/2016 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 708 Portland Trail Blazers* -2½ -120 vs Chicago Bulls

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*Not sure where a Goran Dragic-less Heat team playing on a B2B/3 In 4 with travel from San Antonio is going to come up with 97 points. Miami No. 28 in ORtg at 99.6, Atlanta No.2 in DRtg at 98.6, Atlanta No.1 in Forced Turnovers at 17.2 and Miami the worst FT shooting team in the league at .672. Heat games, especially at home, tend to have little to no pace, and the Howard/Whiteside battle down low should help burn seconds off the clock (although if we get into a Hack-A-Howard situation, things could change...)

A tale in dichotomy: Charlotte 6-3 on the season (3-6 in the 1H, -1.4), Minnesota 3-6 on the season (6-3 in the 1H, +9.6). Hornets just getting by in the 1H on the road (2-2, +0.25), while the T-Wolves have been crushing at Target (3-1, +11.5). Of course, the only other time I bet the T-Wolves in the 1H, they lost, so...

Blazers my anointed team this season and shouldn't have too much problem handling the Bulls at Moda, especially given the one-sided backcourt advantage (a rapidly aging Dwayne Wade and a gimpy legged Rajon Rondo trying to contain the explosiveness of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum hardly seems like a fair fight). Just as big a factor in this one will be the absence of Doug McDermott off the bench for the Bulls, so unless Bobby Portis or Cristiano Felicio are ready to step up to the plate, that 2nd unit's going to have some major issues trying to keep pace .

And, oh yeah, Fuck You PrimeTime...

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YTD: 40-37-1, -2.10

Wednesday:

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11/16/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 517 Phoenix Suns/Denver Nuggets* Over 220½ -110

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RIP bloodhound.
 
*For as many games as there are tonight, having a tough time nailing anything down (Dwight Howard's status in ATL is making what should have been an auto pick a little dicier, and something about the total in IND doesn't agree with me). Will probably have a few 2H picks though (Beal's out and Wall's being limited, so the Sixers might make for a good 2H play although, having said that, Embiid's out and Okafor's being limited, so who knows...) And a Harrison Barnes prop might not be the worst thing in the world but, as I found out with Wade's prop in Miami the other night, props aren't really my thing, so...

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Thanks nbafan.
 
wednesdays can be overwhelming....

i wish tony brothers wasn't in atlanta... i always tend to look to play on teams missing a key starter, everyone else steps up and the opposing team is a little lax and not as focused... the star player out angle

judging by the line move it looks like dwight is out
 
Adding:

11/16/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 507 Milwaukee Bucks* Under 51½ -115 vs Atlanta Hawks for 1st Half
11/16/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 510 Boston Celtics* Over 51½ -110 vs Dallas Mavericks for 1st Half

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Thanks nbafan.
 
*Okay, I won't lie to you, part of the rationale behind the two 1H bets is just so I have something to pass the time with until tipoff in Denver. Having said that, the Bucks averaging 50.0 1H points in spite of having played some of the worst defensive teams in the league to this point (BRK, NO, SAC, IND). Now they're up against one of the top defensive units in the league in ATL and likely to get pressed with the Hawks on a B2B and missing Dwight Howard in the middle. As for the game in Boston, hard to bet totals where you have to entrust your faith (and money) in that horrendous Dallas offense, but the C's team total a little easier to justify: Boston averaging 51.8 1H points (58.0 at home), while the Mavs giving up 51.8 1H points (53.3 on the road). Plus, as tuck321 would say, we have 3 decent over umps at the Garden tonight, so hopefully the Mavs 2H hangover from MSG last night carries over to tonight.

On the downside, I passed on the 1H Under in Orlando, so the odds of me hitting both of these just got a whole lot smaller...

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Thanks Metallica.
 
Good Luck hugh

Very sorry to hear about Hound. RIP

Played Dallas Under 97.5. Boston should crush Dallas early and often. It's early and Boston's defensive numbers are starting to tick down a little. They have been holding opp % way down compared where it was and that should continue. Hopefully lol.
Also played Under 1st H and FG in the Sas/Sac game.
 
Good Luck hugh

Very sorry to hear about Hound. RIP

Played Dallas Under 97.5. Boston should crush Dallas early and often. It's early and Boston's defensive numbers are starting to tick down a little. They have been holding opp % way down compared where it was and that should continue. Hopefully lol.
Also played Under 1st H and FG in the Sas/Sac game.
Good luck Paulie. And yeah, sometimes it's easy to forget there are 'actual' people on the other side of the screen. The passing of bloodhound this year and New_York_Bob last year hits home as they've both played significant roles, to one degree or another, since I began my online 'life' back in 2008 (along with others such as captjohn, BAR, nbafan, emkee, and now yourself). Posting online is almost escapism for most, so when something like this happens, everything tends to get thrown for a loop...

Thoughts on the Clippers game? LAC starting to make it look TOO easy that you almost start to look for excuses not to bet them, LOL...
 
Adding:

11/16/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 507 Milwaukee Bucks* Under 53½ -110 vs Atlanta Hawks for 2nd Half

*Watch the Celtics score 70+ in the 2H now. Most overrated team in the league...

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Adding:

11/16/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Houston Rockets/Oklahoma City Thunder* Over 107 -110 for 2nd Half

*Safe to chalk up the Bucks total as a loser. Let's see how much it slows down in OKC...

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Good luck Paulie. And yeah, sometimes it's easy to forget there are 'actual' people on the other side of the screen. The passing of bloodhound this year and New_York_Bob last year hits home as they've both played significant roles, to one degree or another, since I began my online 'life' back in 2008 (along with others such as captjohn, BAR, nbafan, emkee, and now yourself). Posting online is almost escapism for most, so when something like this happens, everything tends to get thrown for a loop...

Thoughts on the Clippers game? LAC starting to make it look TOO easy that you almost start to look for excuses not to bet them, LOL...

I know emkee played the Clips but I like the other side and of course got greedy and should have taken the +13 now back to 12.5 but I'll take the best I can get in about an hour. Sweating the Knick game laying the -1.5. Yes death has a way of putting things in perspective and shows us what's really important. I Lost 4 friends within the last 5 years and my black suit is cleaned and pressed in the closet I'm sorry to say. Good Friends. Stay Safe and Healthy in these crazy times. I'll say a pray for the Hound and mention what a good man he was.
 
Thanks for the thoughts Paulie and good luck with your bets.

In the meantime, I'm about to shut off my laptop as this clearly is not my night - getting a headache looking at this ridiculous effort from the Suns right now...
 
YTD: 42-40-1, -3.40

Thursday:

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11/17/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Portland Trail Blazers/Houston Rockets* Over 219½ -120
11/17/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 708 Minnesota Timberwolves* -10½ -120 vs Philadelphia 76ers
11/17/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 708 Minnesota Timberwolves* Over 111½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers

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*'Undone' is the word of the day as, once again, I've been 'undone' by my own stupidity. Time and time and time again since the start of the preseason, I've done this where I stake out my initial bets then, from seemingly out of nowhere, I tack on additional games only to watch them go up in flames while my original wagers come through. Conservative guess would be that I've ended costing myself between 5 to 8 units so far. Stupid is as stupid does...

Anyways, somewhat of a perfect storm for the wagers tonight: James Harden coming off his worst offensive performance of the season coupled with the Blazers coming off their worst offensive performance of the season. Both teams rank in the top 5 in terms of 3 point attempts per game, and both teams above average in terms of ORtg, Pace and Effective Field Goal percentage. Also helps that the over is 12-3 the last 15 in Houston, so hopefully we get some good over umps, as tuck321 would say, to sweeten the deal.

As for Philadelphia/Minnesota, Sixers in a fairly bad situational spot with B2B, 3 in 4, 5 in 7, travel from Philadelphia and time shifting. The fact that they beat the Wizards last night also hurts their chances in this one. As for the T-Wolves, not too sure what there's left to say, as I don't think I've ever seen anything like this where a team can be so dominant in the 1H, and then completely fall apart in the 2H. With all the rumblings coming out of the locker room after their latest collapse against the Hornets on Tuesday, fully expecting them to come out focused in the 3rd quarter and blow past the tired legs of the Sixers in the 2H.

And, seeing as how I forgot last night, fuck you PrimeTime (in case anyone was wondering why I keep doing that, he would be the author of the "Give up you suck" tag at the bottom of this thread, which is fine - I rag on him enough, so turnabout is fair play. As to why he did that, you might want to look at his thread where I busted him, once again, for posting an imaginary line. 2H lines don't get lined in game at bet365 until around the 2 minute mark of the 1H, so his explanation is not only absolute nonsense, but also a flat out lie (you honestly think they'd leave themselves exposed like that with that much line fluctuation in two minutes? Um, yeah, no...) Sad to think we've gone from a class act like bloodhound being one of the faces of this site to this lying piece of shit...)

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One of my friends is a big wiz fan and went off on twitter last night on a lot of the players. Gortat responded to his tweet. It was hilarious. The fact gortat actually responds to these tweets on twitter is a bit crazy


hugh.... we all have been there. Staying disciplined is the hardest thing to do in this thing we do. I still have trouble with this. What I do I think about how much work I actually do cappping so that helps me appreciate the wins more... i set a daily goal for myself and try to look ahead to the next day before all the games start. Much easier said than done. Good luck
 
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YTD: 44-41-1, -2.50

Friday:

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11/18/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Toronto Raptors/Denver Nuggets* Over 214½ -120

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