October 14th NCAA Discussion Thread and Lookback

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Pretty horrific week. Could have been salvaged and up a bit overall(had 1 unposted winner and another unit on Tenny) if Hawaii hadn't fattened their Pinny accounts this week.

Overall record

64-53-4 +20.14 units

Horrendous week for myself. A little bad luck and a lot of bad decisions/capping.


Lets look back:

Play I am most proud of was Maryland. They almost won it on the field. Georgia Tech cannot handle success that well. I will give it to them for coming back though to win SU. I added this late in week and really should have made it an even stronger play.

Miami FL was a struggle but got it done. Almost got moosed even on that early number. This team still sucks and they have multiple losses ahead of them IMO.

Poeple try and hate on Pitt but the fact is they are a solid club. At end of year people will be like how they lose to Sparty? The fact is...different times and different situations.

Oklahoma St was a pretty bad moose. I mean..that sucked. Thats just tough to take. Like it or not that happens to all of us each and every season.

Me and Hunt called Florida before season. I keep hitting myself for selling them short. Creativity, toughness, they have it all. That being said, a few huge swings made this game theirs.

Texas AM had a nice little comeback. Something about that team I just like. They should of had more points early in that game so it was justified for me they won late.

South Cary and UK..what can I say. I only saw first 2 drives of game and was a bit suprised UK didn't get many more points. A bit steamed at myself about this one..

I thought Spartans would score more at Michigan. In reality, UM had a TD that was incorrectly ruled a TD and not reviewed. Sparty roughed the punter/kicker a few times. Sparty dropped a wide open TD. I still think I should have covered. Michigan played very well though and did their business.

Tenny-UGA..what more can I say. I broke a few things when score was 24-7 and watched rest in amazement. There goes the ole SEC Under rule..lol

Hedged off both Oregon and Oklahoma luckily(only one on OU though..sorry bout that). Cal is looking like the team I thought they were. I expect them to win at SC this year as I said before season. Colt McCoy looks much better each wek for UT.

Had ULL big..put in real late..that was salvation.

Hawaii and Nevada...No shame guys...at least try and hide it..lol


Alright..this will be a light week(and I mean it)..I have some games targeted and I want to get a good number. If not a good number no play.

Here is what I like...will ad once Pinny lines become available if it suite my eye.

Penn St
Utep
Navy
Florida St
Maryland


For most part...gonna rest the next few weeks..hard time of year. Also time to enjoy this Baseball frenzy here in Detroit.

GL this week everyone.:cheers:
 
Alright. Here are my plays this week.

Maryland -4 -108
Navy -1.5 -105
Florida St -22.5 -102
Utep -13.5 -101
Penn State +7.5 -110 (2 units)
PSU-UM Under 41.5 -104 (3 units)
WVU -13.5 -111 1H (2 units)
Army +5.5 +100 ..........Stacks tail..like it as well after a quick review
Aubrun ML +109 (2 units)
TAMU +1.5 +100

Will let public drive Michigan up and most likely still play. It opened 7.5 at Pinny and quickly got hit down to 6.5 before climbing back up. Thoughts on all of these matchups in next day or so.

Was tempted to play Utah -4 at Wyoming but decided not to. Utah is rounding into form. Ratliffe looks better. Wyoming has had heartbreak all year and a tough travel schedule.

One I may add from intial list is Aggy. That opened pk -105 and quickly got bet to Mizzou as a 2 pt fav. Gimme a FG or more and I'll take the home dog.

Thoughts...comments or questions..bring em.
 
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Even though Tech gave Mizzou a couple of TDs yesterday, I still think Mizzou is better than A&M. I really like this team, Big Al. They are about as thourough a TEAM UNIT as has ever come out of Missouri. I look for them to win the Big 12 North and may even give texas fits in the Big 12 Championship game.
 
It does seem a lot of people like them as indicated by the line movement from PK to -2 right away. Plenty of time to look this one over. I appreciate the input.

I also wanted your input on another Big 12 game. Okiest lays 1-3 at Kst and loses(albeit a mossejob)..now NU in a lookahead is laying doubledigits?..whats your thoughts. Small lean Kst here.
 
Okay, briefly, heres the deal........

Both the Qb's from the teams mentioned are known to manipulate the # so Im waiting on an actual move to see what way we going. Its a waiting game unless I can intercept a text message from Palmer to Ricard setting up the drop.

SEMCON....... watch me shave "no hands" hahaha
 
yeah, BAR...very happy to see you like Penn St. It's at 7 now...but i want 8 or more...sure hope it goes that way.
 
I think it will yanks...Good to see someone else with same sentiments..theres a few of us now...
 
BAR, I like Navy this week, but waiting to see the line movement. I would expect the public to hit Rutgers pretty hard and drive the line. As I write this, I am on my mobile phone, so don't know the line yet.

I took Michigan -7, but may look to back out later on if the line moves in my favor. My gut says Michigan wins by 10, but you SEMCON freaks leaning on Penn St was me worried.

I'd love to hear more thoughts on that game.
 
smo1a...I will have plenty...starting this evening. Maybe Hunt and I can do sorta a point-counterpoint...
 
Man I don't see PSU being to run the ball at all. Being at home for a night game is going to be big... but I don't know if I see Big Blue struggling. I'd lean under.
 
B.A.R. said:
It does seem a lot of people like them as indicated by the line movement from PK to -2 right away. Plenty of time to look this one over. I appreciate the input.

I also wanted your input on another Big 12 game. Okiest lays 1-3 at Kst and loses(albeit a mossejob)..now NU in a lookahead is laying doubledigits?..whats your thoughts. Small lean Kst here.

I agree with your "situational thoughts" on Nebraska here and it is a classic sandwich situation. I think I would be likely to play it just because of that reason. But, it really is hard for me to lay money on K-State. Prince is starting some freshmen and he's already had one offensive lineman quit. I'm not sure the lettermen on the team are buying into his program right now. AND, that game saturday was absolutely given to them. It was not earned by them in any sort of way.
 
Its is true Spek that the Michigan run defense is pretty dominant.

Lets review a similar opponent. I think this illustrates just how good the PSU run defense is.

A very powerful Minnesota running game had 34 carries for 90 YARDS!....in an Overtime affair. Amir Pinnix had 26-76....thats 2.9 per carry.

Now, the week before...when UM played up at the Met Pinnix was averaging 6 ypc in the middle of 4th quarter(do not have final stats handy).

Its pretty impressive what Penn St's defense has done this season. Minny had only 7 points thru 3 quarters and 21 in regulation. We know how well PSU did at Ohio St basically limiting them to 14 points.

The Nittany Lions have hung in there this season as Morelli grows. He gets a bit better each and every week. This will be a big test for him.
 
SoonerBS said:
I agree with your "situational thoughts" on Nebraska here and it is a classic sandwich situation. I think I would be likely to play it just because of that reason. But, it really is hard for me to lay money on K-State. Prince is starting some freshmen and he's already had one offensive lineman quit. I'm not sure the lettermen on the team are buying into his program right now. AND, that game saturday was absolutely given to them. It was not earned by them in any sort of way.

I looked at that game harder this morning(okst and kst last sat) and I agree more and more on that. As far as situational plays well Kst may be the side. I will leave alone for now...thanks.
 
abcs--thelegend said:
Is menningham out for UM?

No word yet. Really can't fin any information. Only thing I have seen was he was icing his knee late third quarter.

As far as Mike Hart. He could have re entered the game but decided it was not needed at that point.
 
This is another night affair for Michigan. Lloyd hates night games. He is more concerned with students work than anything(blah blah blah). Michigan is playing its 2nd outta 3 weeks game at 8 PM. They also had a 3:30 start and a 4:30 start this season. Carr is all for noon starts and thats it.

On the other hand, Michael Hart is ecstatic about the chance to play his first outdoors game at night. He was injured for the Wisconsin game last season and the other this season was indoors. He is impressed with the PSU faithful and said it will give him an extra hop in his step playing beneath the lights.

Perhaps this gives him some extra yards against that tough PSU defense ;)
 
Lets also weigh another factor here.

Chad Henne is a Pennslyvania kid. He has been awaiting this trip since arriving at Michigan. He spent plenty of time at Beaver Stadium as a recruit and has many family and friends around.

The question...does he overdo it or come out sparkling?
 
To say Michigan has dominated the series is an understatment. They have won 7 SU against PSU and 4 outta 5 in Happy Valley. Going all the way back to Penn St's inception into the Big 11...Michigan has taken it to PSU more times than not.

Last year obviously was the heartbreaker for Nittany Lion faithful. I am sure we will hear about that stuff this week. Bottom line is the scoreboard. We have learned that many times this season. I do think it has weighed on any returning players minds though. We saw what that did for Michigan at Notre Dame this season. Look at Tenny at UGA. Look at Florida vs LSU. A chip on one;s shoulder goes a long way.
 
Florida St vs Duke

This is a classic situational play for me. Yes, this is not your older brothers Seminole squad. But then again, this is every generations Duke squad. I like to go against a shit team after they played a good opponent tough on the road with a chance to win. Forget confidence. These Duke kids haven't had athletic confidence in years(lol). Meanwhile you have a Florida St squad off another loss. Thats too they coulda won this year and be the pretender in the BCS race. This team has had injuries and many will say 'why are they laying that much'. There is a reason and I think they takre out a lot of frustration. I think Rice is better than Duke. We saw what FSU is capable of there. It gets ugly early and often

FSU 42-10
 
breaking news

Manningham out 2-3 weeks..possibly up to OSU with miniscus (sp) in jury..will have surgery and miss next two weeks for sure...but this is in RUMOR stages now...just keep an eye on this.
 
this is killer news if he cannot go...he is so important to this offense.
 
I saw that this morning on gbwolverine and bucknuts hunt...I heard carr anounced it in his news conference too, w/out details...I think it's past rumor stage...

Huge loss for UM and too bad really....he's the GUY in the offense...put's a ton of pressure on Arrington w/ Breaston being a smoke and mirrors guy.
 
with MM out I expect this line to go down to 5.5 or 6..I grabbed it at pinny at 7 ..and the juice is favoring PSU...I know BAR got it at 7.5 with his local via text.
 
yeah..it is past rumor stage JOB..there just hasn't been anything in fine print or a source so I can link it..been all over the boards though..he will be out at least 2-3 weeks.
 
Arrington has shown he can make some big catches...I look for UM to utilize the Tight end more in this one, even though Ecker is out....I have no faith in Breaston unless it is a bubble pass.
 
HUNTDOG said:
Arrington has shown he can make some big catches...I look for UM to utilize the Tight end more in this one, even though Ecker is out....I have no faith in Breaston unless it is a bubble pass.

Arrington is a stud but life gets tough now...I really think this may put it squarely on mike hart for these two big games...UM has the defense that they may just ride their defense, play field positions and "Tressel-ball it" for the PSU and IA games...
 
I have to agree 100% Jump....we will see UM pounding it and maybe some roll outs and play actions...no risky deep throws for lloyd.
 
I have been reading up on this most of the day..I am beginning to think they are still rumors and he might be day to day....Lloyd niether confirmed or denied that he will not play, but that is Lloyd's style..still all speculation at this point, nothing has been confirmed.
 
Interesting to say least.

I did grab a 7.5 from local for 2 units on Penn St --10 obviously. Still want that TD even if MM is out.

We'll keep yas updated...
 
Like your FSU play alot. They letup 24 points and still beat Duke by 31 in Dukey stadium. FSU's offense has alot of growing to do... for the rest of this season into next.. as this seems like another transition year for a relatively young squad... and so far this season they look like they have been trying to eat up these weaker opponents.. although Troy played them well... I see this one not being so close.
 
I am not a big fan of playing the side and total in a game but I can't believe how high the psu-um total is with MM hurting. I see like 23-30 points total in this game. Its gonna be a war. Me and Hunt have been goimng at this game for 45 minutes..lol. We both like. More detail to follow.

All plays updated above.
 
I can only see 7 resurfacing if Mario plays. Maybe a hint that he is okay will push it back up as well.

Yanks, you play totals a lot...thats a SOLID under if I have ever seen one.
 
like the FSU and Penn State plays a lot BAR

gl to your tigers this series...A's are a good ball club
 
Thanks bro...

Good to see yas on those sides.

I think it goes 7...this series. I'll soak up all the playoff baseball I can.
 
U-M's Manningham has arthroscopic surgery


October 10, 2006
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By MARK SNYDER
FREE PRESS SPORTS WRITER


Michigan wide receiver Mario Manningham will miss the Penn State game, U-M coach Lloyd Carr said Tuesday.

"Mario had arthroscopic surgery this morning and we got great news as far as the injury," Carr said during Tuesday's Big Ten teleconference. "Hell miss this week but were very excited about the news we received."

Carr would not speculate on a timetable for Manningham's return. ESPN reported during Michigan's win over Michigan State on Saturday that the injury was to Manningham's right knee.

Manningham leads the Big Ten in receiving yards (527) and touchdowns (nine).
 
I'd be careful on the Terps, Al, I think UVa might just show up to play for once this year....
 
I agree with Galt the line is fishy. UVA might win that su as well. But what do i know now a days.. i just lost 22 units :(
 
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