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October 14th NCAA Discussion Thread and Lookback

J Galt said:
I'd be careful on the Terps, Al, I think UVa might just show up to play for once this year....

Galt...good to se ya man.

I will take your UVA expertise into consideration for sure. I can always hedge off if need be. I dunno though. This time of year anyth9ing can happen. This is that funky stretch of conference play. UVA has done nothing to impress me though. Duke giftwrapped that first half and thats it really. Wyoming should have won. The line is odd no doubt. Eeven bad schools have a breakout game. Something to think about.
 
The scramble has started.
Besides preparing to play Penn State this week, University of Michigan football players Steve Breaston, Chad Henne and Ryan Mundy are hustling from teammate to teammate, trying to pin down as many tickets as they can for Saturday's game.
"It's a heated battle,'' Mundy said. "I want to have as many supporters in the stands as possible. Steve is definitely beating me right now, but I need to catch up with him.''
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Breaston disagreed, insisting he trailed both Mundy and Henne on the ticket front.
"I gotta move on the freshmen fast to get some more tickets,'' he said during Monday's news conference.
For Breaston, Henne and Mundy, who start at wide receiver, quarterback and safety, respectively, the game at Beaver Stadium will be their first - and only - opportunity to play college football in their home state.
In 2001, the last time Michigan played in State College, all three were in high school. When the Wolverines next return to Penn State - in 2008 - the trio will have finished at Michigan.
"I'm excited, I'm really excited,'' Breaston said of the game. "I'm not going to lie.''
Breaston's only prior trip to Beaver Stadium came when he was being recruited by the Nittany Lions.
He watched the Wolverines beat Penn State 20-0. In the recruiting battle for Henne, Penn State finished second to Michigan.
Mundy has never attended a game at Penn State, but he has had an up-close view of 107,282-seat Beaver Stadium, which is second nationally in capacity to Michigan Stadium.
"The stadium is just enormous,'' he said of Penn State's home venue.
"It shoots straight up like that,'' he added, raising his arm. "It can be an intimidating place. But I think we'll be fine.''

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History, not to mention Michigan's recent performances, back Mundy's belief.
The No. 4-ranked Wolverines are 6-0, 3-0 in the Big Ten, while unranked Penn State is 4-2, 2-1. In five games in State College, Michigan has lost just once - in 1995.
Since losing to the Nittany Lions in Ann Arbor in 1996, Michigan has reeled off seven consecutive wins in the rivalry. Mundy said if the roles were reversed, he'd be pretty fired up.
"That would be my driving motivation,'' he said. "It would be, man, we haven't beaten these guys in 10 years. That's a decade. I'm sure they're using that as a motivational tool.
"But we just gotta do our best this week to go out and prepare and play a good game.''
Statistically, Michigan and Penn State are comparable in a number of categories. The Wolverines lead the Big Ten in rushing, Penn State is third. Michigan leads the league in rushing defense, Penn State is second. Michigan is No. 2 in total defense, Penn State No. 3.
"I'm very impressed with this Penn State team,'' Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said.
While many of the Wolverines know the Nittany Lion players only from last year's game between the teams, the Michigan players from Pennsylvania can trace a handful of relationships back further. Breaston and Mundy, for instance, who both went to Woodland Hills High School in the Pittsburgh area, closed each season with a game against archrival Penn Hills. That's the high school that Penn State quarterback Anthony Morelli attended.
Mundy clearly remembers two interceptions he had against Morelli, one during Mundy's junior year, the other during his senior year. Woodland Hills won both games.
"He has a live arm,'' Mundy said of Morelli. "He can throw the ball as far as anybody I know. But we did pretty good against him in high school.
"Hopefully, we can carry that over on Saturday.''
 
Good news on the Manningham front

With Mario Manningham leading the receiving corps, the University of Michigan football team won six straight games and rose to a No. 4 national ranking. Now the Wolverines will test themselves without their sophomore star.
At least for one game.
After undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery Tuesday morning, Manningham was ruled out for Saturday night's matchup with Penn State (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten), according to Michigan coach Lloyd Carr.
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Although Carr would neither elaborate on the specifics of the injury nor give a timetable for Manningham's return, the coach sounded optimistic when he spoke on the Big Ten teleconference.
"We got great news as far as the injury,'' Carr said. "He'll miss this week, but we're very excited about the news we
received.''
The 6-foot, 182-pound Manningham has 24 catches for 527 yards and nine receiving touchdowns, including eight in Michigan's past four games.
Michigan's other starting wide receivers, Steve Breaston and Adrian Arrington, will be complemented against the Nittany Lions by senior Carl Tabb (one catch) and freshman Greg Mathews (two receptions).
"Our receivers are prepared for any situation,'' Breaston said Monday. "(Manningham) scored a lot, he's a great part of our offense but I'm not worried.''
Penn State coach Joe
Paterno expressed regret about the injury Tuesday, saying "it's a shame'' that Manningham won't play, but added that he doesn't expect the Wolverines to do things differently when the teams meet in State College.
"They're not going to change their game,'' he said. "We're going to have to play the same game we would have played if Manningham had been coming.''
Following the Penn State game, Michigan will host No. 15 Iowa before moving on to a trio of lower-tier opponents, Northwestern, Ball State and Indiana. The Wolverines conclude their regular season Nov. 18 at Ohio State.
 
BAR--I like the fact that Breaston and Henne will have their first opportunity to play in their home state.

Still liking UM in this one. Was thinking of buying off after Manningham, but I'll let it ride.
 
Hey RJ..I won't be mad if it loses..as long as the score is low...thats the bigger play for me now..the under
 
a few plays added. I said smaller this wek..but its still a short card for me. I like 2 more that may possibly get added. Utep may get bought off depending on how the line starts moving.

The other two btw are TAMU and Aubbie....waiting on better lines for both.
 
Added Auburn ML for 2 units in the 4th post in this thread.

Fuckin Tulane-Utep is going the other way...that sucks..cuz I know I have wrong side nopw but I got to hedge...hopefully it goes back up a bit.
 
I am more apt to side with Virginia in this spot.

While you have a point about being unimpressed by Virginai , what has Maryland done?

You know very well they caught GT in a great spot. They caught a somewhat fat line thanks to the GT upset of VaTech. You alson know GT offense is inconsistent and the Yellow Jackets are always alive dog and poor fav.

This Maryland team was struggling with FIU a few weeks ago. They never showed up vs WV as they were blown out by the 1stQ. Marylands offense hasnt shown me anything.

Now with Virginia you have to take ONLY the last 3 games. Thats when they switched QB's. Obviously they get a pass at GT but the defense played well. The next week again the defense played well and shutout Duke...yeah the BDevils stink but week in week out the DEFENSE has sowed up IMO. While some people dont care for ECU I happen to think they are a solid team and backed team last week against Virginia cause it was a tough spot...3rd straight away.

Now Sewell finally gets ahome game and you WOULD think he has improved playing 3 road games.

If maryland is +14.5 @ GT and Virginai +16.5 it says that Terps are 2 pts stronger...now I feel that the Terps line was anywhere from 1.5 to 3 pts off. So that would make the Terps 3.5 to 5.5 pts better on a neutral field. I do think since the GT game you could say they have improved 1/2 to 1 pt. Which narrows the range to 3 - 4.5 ....give Virginia 3.5 pts for home field and we have this game as Pkem to Maryland -1.

So without looking at indivual matchups inthis game ... I owuld suggest anything that has Virginia +3 or better..is value....

JMHO......
 
Nut...I appreciate the effort into this.

Galt had similar sentiments and I am still looking at this game. I will have a more appropriate response when I return this evening.
 
B.A.R. said:
Added Auburn ML for 2 units in the 4th post in this thread.

Fuckin Tulane-Utep is going the other way...that sucks..cuz I know I have wrong side nopw but I got to hedge...hopefully it goes back up a bit.

Big Al......Thoughts on Auburn.....Help me out with what Vegas in thinking....You've got a team playing great ball, Florida..And a team that has'nt played good in 3 games but yet they are the favs:hairout: TT has been taking all the heat for not having his team ready, especially the Arky game....Offensive line is taking the blame for Cox having a bad day.....I'm still not sold on Florida...Lot's of bad breaks for LSU LW.. Missed FG ..Scored twice and was brought back and then fumbled on the half yard line....UF's D is improved thats for sure...Can't see Auburn dropping two in a row @ home...I'd have to agree the Aubbie ML play....
 
Fade...

First of all i am not suprised with Florida's play this year. Huntdog and myself loved this team since last spring and said they would be a sleeper club. Obviously the tough schedule kept me away from a play on them to win it all. This is a good club.

That being said I still think LSU could have won last week. It was a weird game for sure. It should have been Tigers 14-7 going into half but we all know what happened. LSU shot themsleves in the foot time after time.

Auburn, I thought they would be a BCS team for sure. Not to late but they need to win this one. Last week was pititful. I think they thought they could get that game with a half ass effort. They had to look ahead a bit to this game and it stung them in the ass in my opinion. The week before against the Cocks I think that game has to be looked at diferently. Newton is a helluva young QB and SC planned well for that game. Aubbie escaped but they were tested by something different and something new.

LSU moved ball against Florida pretty well. They fucked themsleves. Despite recent gmes I think Aubbie still has a helluva defense. They sure shut down that same LSU teamn that should of had over 20 points last week.

Lets not forget the nightime atmosphere down in your conference.

As far as the line. Vegas was begging you to take Florida with that line IMO. I guess that tout who releases his picks on Thursdays took Florida this week. Seems to somewhat coincide with line change. He had LSU last week..so whatever. ML is nice here..just win baby.

Must win for Aubbie at night in own stadium. I think they get it done 20-14
 
Nut...

I want to go over a few things real quick.

First thing I noticed last week was the Maryland line being so high. It didn't make sense that they were receiving almost as many as UVA(when uva was busting in a new QB). I had GT as about a 9 point favorite if I remember right. That line was inflated due to Tech stomping on VT. So, I would say that on a nuetral field that UVA is about a TD less than Maryland. Thats my opinion. Add in homefield and i think line is about right now.

Lemme add that I am always willing to hedge on a play if it isn;t proper so I love the discussion here.

I had WVU game-half and team total in that game back a month ago. Maryland fucked themsleves first quarter and never coulds get out of that hole. They outplayed WVU the rest of game and passed all over them. Now, is that WVU complaceny? Is it bad WVU pass defense? Is it Maryland isn'tr that horrible?

I go with a mixture of all three there.

As far as UVA. I do want to look at the new QB a bit more. I agree this could be a factor. As for their season so far..they suck. Lucky as hell to get a win against Wyoming. I'll give you the credit on ECU. They are not a bad team at all.

I want to talk about this more..but time is sparse...so i just wanted to put a few things out there for everyone to think about.

Back later tonight...:cheers:
 
Now with Virginia you have to take ONLY the last 3 games. Thats when they switched QB's. Obviously they get a pass at GT but the defense played well. The next week again the defense played well and shutout Duke...yeah the BDevils stink but week in week out the DEFENSE has sowed up IMO. While some people dont care for ECU I happen to think they are a solid team and backed team last week against Virginia cause it was a tough spot...3rd straight away.

Okay, this is an excellent capping tip for any of you browsers.

If any of you guys have read me the first month you know I played Pitt, Nebraska, WVU and Florida a lot. These teams, if you take the whole season last year are not what they really are. You have to break it down into segments. Why segments?

1. New QB
2. Adjustment to system
3. Injuries

Lets say Nut is correct here and UVA improves the rest of the season. Nine months from now guys will be capping an opening game for next year involving UVA. They could look back at ALL of this year and come up with an inaccurate conclusion. Always know the little factors when capping a game.





I do want to say..the Duke game...that was a bit odd...5 FD's to 3 in first half was unimpressive. Duke kinda gave them a lot early. I need to look back on that game some more.
 
Bar ~

Thats good work...where we differ is what the VaTech upset did...

I would say before the upset we would have seen 11.5 to 13....9 seems way low IMO but only my opinion...I think at most a game is adjusted by 3 points...

I agree with Maryland vs WVU comments. They clearly outplayed but it was 38-10 at the half WVU look disinterested. So while I agree I cant take anything from that game other then when the gane started Terps werent rady to play...you could say GT went to sleep after taking a 7-0 lead , looked up saw 17-7 and out played Maryland the rest of way as well..who only got 6 poinst last 38 minutes and all 14 points from TDS were gifts IMO..8yard TD drive and 104 yd kick return...they only earned 9 point off GT and GT missed 2 Fgs, missed a 2pt convesrion , was stopped on 4th 1 at the Terps 24...thats reasonably speaking 10 points GT left off the board...so 4 pt game becomes 14 point game...

Plus I feel GT gave 14 points away and only receieved 7 gift points...so was that game reall yclose or GT just sloppy....I vore for sloppy GT effort...4th quarter always belongs to the better team IMO.

I have to run but in the TimH thread I made some other points...

I know the prevailing thought is Maryland is better then they showed and Virginia just isnt very good SO the Terps should win and by at least three...I just approach it differently!

GL..be around later!
 
I found this on page 3!! I thought I was on Covers for a minute having to find the good cappers' threads on the back pages.
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Big Al, just eyeballing this, it looks like you were a winner again last week. I just wanted to say thank you to you and HUNT for causing me to look at that Mich/PSU UNDER this last week. I made it one of my biggest plays and it cashed EASILY! Keep up the good work, dude!

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