Observations on Final Four Eligible Teams

wiseplayer

wiseplayer

Pretty much a regular
I'd be shocked if we don't see double digit spreads in the semis.
The top half of the 4, Bama and FSU are far superior physically than Oregon, Baylor, and TCU. Ohio State is just flat out not deserving of a berth. How OSU played at home vs Indiana and Michigan is all you need to see.
 
FSU will not be a double digit favorite over any of those teams, not even close.
 
FSU may not make it. GT stands a very good chance of knocking them off. We'll see if Charles Kelly remembers anything about the option, and how to defend it. I do think FSU has the talent on the outside to man up on an Island, but one week to prepare is never good. FSU did see the option earlier in the year, against far inferior talent, and gave up some points to a team that should have shut out on a talent level basis.
 
Bama and Oregon are the top 2 in the 4 team playoff, not sure where you're getting FSU as being one of those 2.

You may see a double digit spread in one of the semis, but it's doubtful. I can't see Bama being a 10 pt fav over either TCU or Baylor (or tOSU for that matter), and Oregon isn't going to be favored by 10 over FSU.
 
kjohnson109 said:
FSU will not be a double digit favorite over any of those teams, not even close.
Click to expand...

FSU may not even be favored against any of the other 4 teams in the playoff. They would be dogged vs. both Alabama and Oregon (almost certainly), and would be very slight favs, if anything vs. TCU/Baylor.

I've posted the lines that came out a couple of weeks ago in one of these threads....and FSU was a 1 pt fav vs. both TCU and Baylor, was a 6 pt dog to Alabama, and was a 3 pt dog to Oregon. These lines are a couple of weeks old now, and things have changed, but FSU hasn't done anything to make themselves a bigger favorite against any of the teams still competing for the 4 playoff spots.

FSU -1 Baylor
FSU -1 TCU
FSU -2 Miss St
tOSU -1 FSU
Bama -6.5 FSU
Ore -3 FSU
 
I'd empty the 401k on oregon if they were a double digit dog to Fsu in the rose bowl
 
10 points? Dream on, man. I'm guessing the lines would be as follows:

Bama -7.5 TCU
Oregon -3.5 FSU

Bama -3 Oregon
Bama -4.5 FSU
 
Oregon, TCU, Baylor and OSU are a farce. If you guys can't see it then I hope Vegas doesn't see it either.
 
And I have zero idea why people give FSU shit. They haven't lost a game in 2 years. They didn't lose at home to AZ as a 16.5 favorite, didn't lose at home to a shitty VT team, didn't run out of gas and blow a 21 point lead in the last 11 minutes of a game, didn't lose to a unranked WV team, and didn't lose to a 15th ranked (3 loss) Ole Miss team.

This FSU team gets better as the game goes on. They remind me of the 2002 Buckeyes team that won the title.

The only team that I'm not sure FSU beats is Bama. They beat everyone else (yes, including Oregon).
 
LOL you will have all the opportunity you want to bet on FSU if you think they win by double digits, I wouldn't be salty about it.
 
I'm all for FSU being number one, they've earned it. Just don't know how that defense will hold any of the top teams under 45 points which means they'll have to go toe to toe, no crazy 2nd half comebacks. But they surely are capable.
 
Bama just played their toughest opponent in Auburn. Auburn is the only team that can match their talent and moxie. They will steam roll through the BCS regardless of the rankings of other teams. The only long shot with a chance is FSU. I'm sure the committee will want to keep FSU in position to play Bama in the finals.
When the lights go on January 1st, Bama and FSU will steam roll whoever they play.
 
wiseplayer said:
Oregon, TCU, Baylor and OSU are a farce. If you guys can't see it then I hope Vegas doesn't see it either.
Click to expand...

They're ALL a farce, yet FSU with it's just squeaking by many times in the past 5-6 weeks aren't?

You already have your answer about the lines....Golden Nugget released the lines I had in my post a couple of weeks ago (and you can bet them at their sportsbook). It was 2 weeks ago, but those lines will most likely be very similar to what you see there.

FSU was favored by 7, at home, vs Florida, who is just horrible this year. Yet you think that FSU would somehow be a double digit favorite vs Oregon on a neutral field? It may be you who isn't seeing things clearly.
 
Wise, have you watched FSU on defense this year? If so I'd love to know what you've seen to put them so high. There is NO great team out there this year, not really even close.
 
Only two angles I can see for endorsing FSU (if they can beat GT and actually make the playoffs)

- We will be as healthy as we have been in 5-6 weeks, and Jameis will be able to run again
- the only game we actually played a solid 1h in all year was the 1st game of the year vs Okie St. which we had all offseason to prepare for.

I wouldn't be so quick to auto-fade FSU with all this time to prepare and get healthy. If we actually come prepared to play in the 1h, it will be a long day for the opposition.
 
The first half struggles didn't start this year. It started in the BCS Championship game last year
 
If you remember the talking heads of last year, all they could say is FSU had not been tested. This year, they have been steadily tested and have answered every chance. The defense is fine. The offense has put them behind the eight ball all year. They have enough talent to stay on the field with any team. Oregon is scary, but they can be beaten. I would rank FSU "D" as high, if not higher, than any of the PAC. So, what makes anyone think they can't hold their own against the Ducks?
 
PokeyFSU said:
Only two angles I can see for endorsing FSU (if they can beat GT and actually make the playoffs)

- We will be as healthy as we have been in 5-6 weeks, and Jameis will be able to run again
- the only game we actually played a solid 1h in all year was the 1st game of the year vs Okie St. which we had all offseason to prepare for.

I wouldn't be so quick to auto-fade FSU with all this time to prepare and get healthy. If we actually come prepared to play in the 1h, it will be a long day for the opposition.
Click to expand...

I don't think most people are 'quick to auto-fade' FSU in the playoff. This thread started out with someone claiming that FSU may possibly be a double digit fave to Oregon, TCU, Baylor, or tOSU...when, in reality, they wouldn't even be a favorite vs Oregon, and are basically a pick vs TCU and Baylor (tOSU as well, but w/the QB injury that changes everything).
 
booksbestfriend said:
If you remember the talking heads of last year, all they could say is FSU had not been tested. This year, they have been steadily tested and have answered every chance. The defense is fine. The offense has put them behind the eight ball all year. They have enough talent to stay on the field with any team. Oregon is scary, but they can be beaten. I would rank FSU "D" as high, if not higher, than any of the PAC. So, what makes anyone think they can't hold their own against the Ducks?
Click to expand...

Again, no one in this thread is saying they can't hold their own vs the Ducks. Can we all just read the first post of this thread and see why the replies have been what they are?
 
[h=1]Big 12 would present co-champions[/h]Updated: December 1, 2014, 3:02 PM ET
<cite class="source">By Heather Dinich | ESPN.com</cite>



<!-- end mod-article-title --> <!-- begin story body -->
[h=5]Big 12 Prepared To Present Two Champions[/h]College football writer Heather Dinich discusses why the Big 12 is considering naming TCU and Baylor co-champions of the conference.Tags: Baylor Bears, NCF, TCU Horned Frogs


Big 12 Prepared To Present Two Champions[h=6]NEXT VIDEO
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[/h]


The Big 12 would officially leave the TCU-Baylor debate in the hands of the College Football Playoff selection committee, commissioner Bob Bowlsby said in a teleconference on Monday.
Should No. 5 TCU and No. 7 Baylor both win Saturday and each finish the season 11-1, Bowlsby said the league would inform the 12-member selection committee it has co-champions, in spite of Baylor's 61-58 win over TCU on Oct. 11. The committee has had TCU ranked ahead of Baylor for all five of its rankings this season.
"That's the prerogative of the selection committee," Bowlsby said. "It's not our prerogative for us to tell them who is our best team. They can choose from an array of teams that are available and qualified for the playoff.
"It's not within our prerogative to bind the selection committee that way. They're going to select who they think is the best team. This is an important distinction. Because the committee's charge is not to select the most deserving team. The committee's responsibility is to select the four best teams based upon their objective and subjective criteria. And each one of the committee members may feel different about how exactly that process works. ... They can certainly select from any of ours."
Only if TCU and Baylor are both left out of the top four would the league acknowledge Baylor's head-to-head win over TCU. By contract, displaced conference champions are guaranteed spots in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Vizio Fiesta Bowl and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Bowlsby said the league would then use Baylor's win over TCU to determine which team would play in a New Year's Six bowl.
"The only reason we apply the tiebreaker later on is because we have to, we're the ones who designate who goes into one of those host bowls," Bowlsby said. "In the case of the College Football Playoff, they're the ones who designate who goes into those games."
"We wouldn't be designating our champion," he said. "We would be designating our representative to the host bowl."
TCU finishes the season Saturday against Iowa State, which is winless in league play, and Baylor is at home against No. 12 Kansas State in the game that will either prolong or end the Bears' playoff hopes.
Baylor athletic director Ian McCaw said Monday he believes his football program would be deserving of a playoff spot if it defeats Kansas State.
"It is an incredible platform for us to make our case," McCaw said before Bowlsby announced the conference's decision. "We would be a Big 12 co-champion with a tiebreaker over TCU. It would give us three top-15-quality wins. We would have the strongest resume among those under consideration."
McCaw believes a head-to-head defeat of TCU will be key.
"The whole concept of a playoff is determining a champion on the field," McCaw said. "If it's on the merits of what was done on the field, you would think if there's already been a game it should weigh heavily."
The Big 12 is the only conference among the Power 5 (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12) that doesn't have a conference title game. Instead, the 10-team league uses a round-robin format to determine its champion. It's slogan, "One true champion," has been called into question now because of its willingness to declare Baylor and TCU co-champions.
"'One True Champion' is really about everybody playing everybody," Bowlsby said. "That's the right way to do it."
"We believe that playing everyone every year is the right way to determine a champion," he said, "even if ends in a tie."
ESPN's Joe Schad contributed to this report.
 
Lareux said:
Again, no one in this thread is saying they can't hold their own vs the Ducks. Can we all just read the first post of this thread and see why the replies have been what they are?
Click to expand...


Yeah, the original poster is off his rocker. Closest thing to a double digit favorite would be Bama over TCU and I don't even see it. If anyone thinks FSU would be a favorite over Oregon---let own 10 points--you might as well stop betting
 
Lareux said:
I like it as well.....but, they need to have a conference title game to begin with.
Click to expand...

They need two more teams and a championship game, but there will never be a title game if they actually play everyone in conference, regardless of whether you agree with their decision to not give Baylor the tiebreaker. With 10 teams, a title game would always ensure a rematch, which is against the very reason conference title games exist in the first place.
 
Curious to know how the playoff proceeds are split up -- all go equally to the Power Conferences, or based on participation in playoffs?
 
<section class="col-sm-9"> <article class="entry clearfix"> All Football Bowl Subdivision conferences and independent institutions will receive significant increases in revenue from the College Football Playoff under the revenue-distribution plan adopted unanimously by the playoff Board of Managers—university presidents and chancellors representing the ten conferences that manage the event.
Each of those ten Football Bowl Subdivision conferences is expected to at least double the annual revenue that had been received under the BCS arrangement. The higher payments are a result of the increase in overall revenues from the playoff.
While annual revenue distributions will fluctuate from year to year based on the sites of the playoff semifinals and national championship game, and the gross revenue from all games, all conferences will gain significantly.
Revenue from the playoff will accrue to the conferences and to the independent institutions. There are four components to the distribution: (1) A new allotment that provides revenue to conferences based on the number of teams meeting the NCAA’s then-existing Academic Progress Rate (APR) for participation in a post-season football game, (2) a base share, (3) a share allocated for participation in one of the games and (4) expenses for participating institutions.
“The College Football Playoff will include the top four teams, but every conference will benefit under the new arrangement. This approach rewards those teams that are part of the event and is fair to all the conferences and independent institutions that participate and make the College Football Playoff possible. It really will be a big win for all,” said Bill Hancock, Executive Director of the playoff.
The following estimates of the CFP revenue distribution are based on preliminary calculations for the 2014-2015 season and are only approximate projections of potential revenue distribution from each component:
(1) Each conference will receive $300,000 for each of its schools when the school’s football team meets the NCAA’s APR for participation in a post-season football game. Each independent institution will also receive the $300,000 when its football team meets that standard.
(2) Each of the 10 conferences will also receive a base amount. For conferences that have contracts for their champions to participate in the Orange, Rose or Sugar Bowl, the base combined with the full academic performance pool will be approximately $50 million for each conference. The five conferences that do not have contracts for their champions to participate in the Orange, Rose or Sugar Bowls will receive approximately $75 million in aggregate (full academic pool plus base), which the conferences will distribute as they choose. Notre Dame will receive a payment of $2.3 million if it meets the APR; the other three independents will share $922,658.
(3) A conference will receive $6 million for each team that is selected for the semifinal games. There will be no additional distribution to conferences whose teams qualify for the national championship game. A conference will receive $4 million for each team that plays in a non-playoff bowl under the arrangement (in 2014-2015, the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach Bowls).
(4) Each conference whose team participates in a playoff semifinal, Cotton, Fiesta or Peach Bowl, or in the national championship game will receive $2 million to cover expenses for each game.
Additionally, certain conferences in the Football Championship Subdivision conferences will receive $2.25 million in aggregate.
For informational purposes, following is the revenue distribution for 2014, the final year of the Bowl Championship Series:
* Base share to each of the six automatic-qualifying conferences: $27.897 million;
* Share to the four conferences without automatic qualification, in aggregate: $13.168 million;
* Share to Notre Dame: $2.319 million;
* Share to each other independent institution: $100,000;
* Share to a conference or independent institution for each team selected at large: $6.3 million.

</article> </section>
 
I still can't grasp TCU being ranked ahead of Baylor. In every organized sport in the world where the teams are divided into divisions or conferences or whatever, at every level, the very first tie-breaker, every time, is head to head record. CFP committee has to be praying one of them loses this weekend.

I would put FSU #1 because they are the only team with a zero in the L column. All this "game control, FPI, etc" is just something the media came up with to talk about why teams are overrated or underrated. My only issue with FSU is that we have yet to see them play anything even resembling a complete game where they come close to maximizing their potential. Sure, it could happen in the playoffs. But of the other teams, we have seen them all play a "great" game. Sometimes several. Just not confident FSU has it in them at this point. After 12 games, you kind of are what you are. I could see them beating any of the 4. I could see them losing to any of the 4. I don't know that there is any team in the top 10 that deserves to be a DD fave to any of the other top 10 on a neutral
 
gps_3 said:
I still can't grasp TCU being ranked ahead of Baylor. In every organized sport in the world where the teams are divided into divisions or conferences or whatever, at every level, the very first tie-breaker, every time, is head to head record. CFP committee has to be praying one of them loses this weekend.

l
Click to expand...

Not sure why you're shocked. The exact same thing happened in 2008---in the Big 12 to boot. Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head yet Oklahoma was sent to the BCS Championship over Texas when both had one conference loss
 
Capone said:
Not sure why you're shocked. The exact same thing happened in 2008---in the Big 12 to boot. Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head yet Oklahoma was sent to the BCS Championship over Texas when both had one conference loss
Click to expand...

Having a committee full of humans was supposed to fix that.
 
Capone said:
Not sure why you're shocked. The exact same thing happened in 2008---in the Big 12 to boot. Texas beat Oklahoma head-to-head yet Oklahoma was sent to the BCS Championship over Texas when both had one conference loss
Click to expand...

Wasn't there a three way tie that year? Texas tech beat Texas, who beat Oklahoma, who beat Tech?
 
Capone said:
Yeah, the original poster is off his rocker.
Click to expand...

Hilarious considering what we have going on in Ferguson and those who support the thug who robbed a store and attacked a cop. That's off the rocker brah.

Whoever is not named Alabama and FSU are going to get it handed to them. The bottom half of the final 4 have lost to Arizona and Baylor.

I see a major issue coming up with a lack of competitive games on New Years Day. It could be similar to what Bama did to Notre Dame a couple years ago in the title game.
 
gps_3 said:
Wasn't there a three way tie that year? Texas tech beat Texas, who beat Oklahoma, who beat Tech?
Click to expand...


Oklahoma beat Tech. Texas beat Oklahoma. They ended up taking Oklahoma because they had the highest BCS ranking
 
wiseplayer said:
Hilarious considering what we have going on in Ferguson and those who support the thug who robbed a store and attacked a cop. That's off the rocker brah.

Whoever is not named Alabama and FSU are going to get it handed to them. The bottom half of the final 4 have lost to Arizona and Baylor.

I see a major issue coming up with a lack of competitive games on New Years Day. It could be similar to what Bama did to Notre Dame a couple years ago in the title game.
Click to expand...

You could be right, but you said there would be DD favs, which is not the same as having non-competitive games.

And again, FSU isn't in the top 2 right now, and unless Ore or Bama lose, it looks like they won't be in the Top 2.
 
Capone said:
How's that working out?
Click to expand...

Well we won't know until the final ranking is released next week...and if Baylor beats KSU, they very well may jump TCU and it will work out.

You very well may be right though, and it may not work out, as many think it should, with the head to head result. We shall see next Sunday night I guess.
 
Lareux said:
You could be right, but you said there would be DD favs, which is not the same as having non-competitive games.

And again, FSU isn't in the top 2 right now, and unless Ore or Bama lose, it looks like they won't be in the Top 2.
Click to expand...

They're in my top 2 and if the spreads aren't double digits then I'll be hammering the favs.
 
wiseplayer said:
They're in my top 2 and if the spreads aren't double digits then I'll be hammering the favs.
Click to expand...

There won't be DD faves (very, very much more than likely), and if you're really going to hammer the favs, you may very well be betting against FSU.

If FSU plays either Bama or Oregon, they will be the dog. And if they somehow play TCU/Baylor, the line is going to be damn close to a pick.

Seems you have FSU rated a whole lot higher than anyone else who's weighed in (especially those that matter). I'm not saying you're wrong...we'll know when the games are played ultimately.
 
And if I'm any of those teams I'd be much more worried about playing TCU than Baylor, by a ton.
 
This site might explode if tOSU gets in. As if they wouldn't deserve it.
 
kjohnson109 said:
They need two more teams and a championship game, but there will never be a title game if they actually play everyone in conference, regardless of whether you agree with their decision to not give Baylor the tiebreaker. With 10 teams, a title game would always ensure a rematch, which is against the very reason conference title games exist in the first place.
Click to expand...
by this logic though, they shouldnt leave it up to committee and declare Baylor the Champ correct?
 
As I've said for about 30 years, there should be a 16-team playoff. Like every other division of college football, like every other sport.
 
twinkie13 said:
by this logic though, they shouldnt leave it up to committee and declare Baylor the Champ correct?
Click to expand...

Even if they declared Baylor the champ the committee could still have TCU in the playoff instead of Baylor.
 
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