November 2016

hugh613

Pretty much a regular
YTD: 10-9-1, +0.10

Tuesday:

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11/1/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 710 Miami Heat* -3½ -110 vs Sacramento Kings

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*90's month... Anyways, bad spot for the Kings (B2B with travel from Atlanta, 3rd game in 4 nights, and 5th game in the past 7 days) heading into American Airlines Arena where they're 3-11 ATS their last 14 trips, and going up against a Heat team looking for their first win of the season at home.

Thought about the overs at Quicken and Moda as well, but the early start time in Cleveland coupled with the Rockets screwing me over (or, more to the point, under) the other night made me hesitate on that on, and the Warriors... who knows what the deal is with them. Kind of like the proverbial tortoise and the hare, only the hare is still doing just enough to get it done to start the season. Might take a while for them to earn my trust. Also interested in the Jazz team total under which should check in at around 88.5 (Utah's only topped that number once in their last six vs. the Spurs), but meh... San Antonio haven't really put 4 solid defensive quarters together yet so, with a number that low, all it takes is that one abnormally high scoring quarter to screw you over.

Good luck.

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I'm no good with NBA regular season but situational game in Cleveland...there's a World Series game 6 within steps, hard to know what the mindset is there. Guessing some of the Cavs team will hightail it over once the game is over, and how many fans will be in the arena in the second half? Just food for thought.

Get it hugh.
 
Thanks kj. They actually moved the start time up to 6:00 PM EST to accommodate Game 6, with some of the guys saying they were heading over to Progressive (which is right next door) after the game. As for the attendance, apparently they'll be showing the game on the big screen at the Q after the Cavs game is over, so don't have to worry about a mass exodus.

I just pray tip makes it through tomorrow night (between the heavy boozing and high cholesterol grilled cheese sandwiches he loves so much, this might be what finishes him off...)
 
Ya I saw the time change, just more or less wondering about the psychological effects...are the Cavs even in the game mentally? Who really knows, they're supposed to be pros but we all know they're all in the same fraternity. Could be one of those "just get it over with" type games I would think.
 
Adding:

11/1/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 715 Utah Jazz* Under 87½ -110 vs San Antonio Spurs

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Thanks Metallica.
 
YTD: 11-10-1, +0.00

Wednesday:

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11/2/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 504 Charlotte Hornets* -12½ -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers
11/2/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 Dallas Mavericks/Utah Jazz* Under 189½ -110

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*Impressive feat being twenty two bets into the season and be exactly dead even, SMH... And, as per usual, my first bet comes through, my leans come through, but the add on falls flat on its face. Not even sure what to call this anymore, because "the season of poor judgment" doesn't really have any cache to it...

Anyways, Sixers off a demoralizing loss to the Magic up against a well rested Hornets team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against them last season, with wins by counts of 25, 20, 15 and 9. Plus, Joel Embiid's supposed to have the night off tonight, so there goes their most dynamic weapon on offense. Seems like a surefire loss for their first game on the road this season. As for Mavs/Jazz, Utah pretty much blew their offensive load last night, so the odds of one of the poorest shooting teams in the league managing to pull that off two nights in a row seem fairly minimal. Also, the Jazz at home typically play at the slowest pace in the league, while the Mavs themselves are usually in no hurry to get it up court either (their pace numbers so far a bit out of whack having played Indiana once into OT and Houston twice). Have a few leans as well, but meh... I'm in no mood to watch them go 5-0 while my actual bets go up in flames, so...

Also, I completely forgot about it yesterday, but I made a spreadsheet detailing days rest for those that are interested. Nothing fancy, but it's the full schedule with each team's days rest heading into their respective matches (B2B, 3 in 4, 4 in 5, etc...) Thought about adding in time zone changes as well, but that seemed a little too elaborate. And again, as much as I tried to avoid it, I can't guarantee 100% there aren't a few mistakes along the way (I picked out games at random to back test it, but you never know), so I'd say use it more as a guide than as gospel.

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*Impressive feat being twenty two bets into the season and be exactly dead even, SMH... And, as per usual, my first bet comes through, my leans come through, but the add on falls flat on its face. Not even sure what to call this anymore, because "the season of poor judgment" doesn't really have any cache to it...

Anyways, Sixers off a demoralizing loss to the Magic up against a well rested Hornets team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against them last season, with wins by counts of 25, 20, 15 and 9. Plus, Joel Embiid's supposed to have the night off tonight, so there goes their most dynamic weapon on offense. Seems like a surefire loss for their first game on the road this season. As for Mavs/Jazz, Utah pretty much blew their offensive load last night, so the odds of one of the poorest shooting teams in the league managing to pull that off two nights in a row seem fairly minimal. Also, the Jazz at home typically play at the slowest pace in the league, while the Mavs themselves are usually in no hurry to get it up court either (their pace numbers so far a bit out of whack having played Indiana once into OT and Houston twice). Have a few leans as well, but meh... I'm in no mood to watch them go 5-0 while my actual bets go up in flames, so...

Also, I completely forgot about it yesterday, but I made a spreadsheet detailing days rest for those that are interested. Nothing fancy, but it's the full schedule with each team's days rest heading into their respective matches (B2B, 3 in 4, 4 in 5, etc...) Thought about adding in time zone changes as well, but that seemed a little too elaborate. And again, as much as I tried to avoid it, I can't guarantee 100% there aren't a few mistakes along the way (I picked out games at random to back test it, but you never know), so I'd say use it more as a guide than as gospel.

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Good Luck hugh, A slight minus so far this year. The books seem to be on there game early this year. The numbers seem to be there more times then not. Had the Under for the first half in the Utah game last night and they shot 75% and 7/8 from 3 land in the first Q almost fell off the chair when I click on and seen a 38 1stQ score for them. Played Boston -3 and Dallas +5 last night for today. Busy all had to go see my daughter's new house bearing gifts. lol So I missed the Utah # but now I have a rooting interest and it's get'em Wednesday.
 
YTD: 13-10-1, +2.00

Thursday:

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11/3/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 705 Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves* Over 208½ -120

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*Thanks Grind, Metallica (tonight's vid is for you bud) and Paulie. And yeah Paulie, I know what you mean. When I look at the games in advance, I visualize a number in my head, and go from there. Only problem this season is that the numbers usually aren't anywhere close to what ends up getting posted. Take for example the Denver/Minnesota total. I lined it in my head at around 204.5, maybe 205 (real scientific, I know...) and up pops a 209. Now, obviously, the linesmakers are a little smarter than me, but that's what keeps throwing me off when you see me mention leans (the numbers don't jive, so then I get all messed up). Anyways, as for the total at Target Center, the matchup page over at Covers has about 5000 trends supporting the over (okay, more like 20), and Denver really seems to have no interest in playing defense, so the T-Wolves should get theirs, while Towns is going to have his hands full dealing with both Nurkic and Jokic, so won't be surprised to see this land in th 220's. Also, I bet this before I saw Will Barton was ruled out (sucks, but what can you do), so hopefully either Jamal Murray or Jameer Nelson can step up in his absence.

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I don't usually get too bent out of shape over these things, but what the fuck was that shit? 6 points the last 3 minutes and Thibodeau puts the game in the hands of Nemanja Bjelica the last two possessions. Fucking idiotic...
 
YTD: 13-11-1, +0.80

Friday:

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11/4/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 503 Charlotte Hornets* -6½ -110 vs Brooklyn Nets
11/4/2016 8:35 PM NBA Basketball 513 Portland Trail Blazers* -1½ -110 vs Dallas Mavericks
11/4/2016 9:05 PM NBA Basketball 515 San Antonio Spurs/Utah Jazz* Under 186½ -110

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Adding:

11/4/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 517 Golden State Warriors* Over 62½ -110 vs Los Angeles Lakers for 1st Half

*One way to look at it would be to say it's a letdown spot for the Warriors after last night, and with this being a B2B/3 IN 4 situation, the intensity won't be there to start the game. Another way to look at it would be to say the pressure's off after back to back blowout wins, and that the starters let loose in the 1H and enjoy the 2H from the bench against a team allowing a league high 59.8 points in the 1H this season.

Of course, there's a reason why I'm hovering around the zero mark, so either or...

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Thanks Botanical.
 
Hey glad we hop on spurs under I will take the push was looking for that hook great call on blazers
 
Thanks Botanical - don't thank me, thank Joe Ingles for missing that free throw at the end of the Jazz game. Anyways, having a tough time nailing anything down for tonight. The way I usually do it is to look at the schedule, zero in on games I like, and then if the stats fit the narrative, go with that. Doesn't seem to be quite that easy with regards to tonight. Even the one bet I like a lot, the Orlando team total under (which should be 103 from the looks of it), is kind of compromised with John Wall being out (it's been nine games since Orlando broke the 100 point barrier against the Wizards). Have to decide how much Wall is worth to the line defensively. Also like the overs in Indiana, Atlanta and Milwaukee, but I'll have to wait until I get home to look at those closer (total in Indiana opened 4 points higher than the game in Chicago last week, so that's usually a tell, Harden and Howard props could be golden tonight, and only thing holding be back at BMO is my dislike and distrust of both the Kings and Bucks).

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YTD: 15-13-1, +0.60

Saturday:

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11/5/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 708 Orlando Magic* Under 103½ -110 vs Washington Wizards

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YTD: 16-13-1, +1.60

Sunday:

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11/6/2016 12:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 Utah Jazz/New York Knicks* Under 195½ -110

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*Early start time coupled with a million trends supporting the under at MSG. Hayward being back kind of a wash as whatever spark he provides on offense should be cancelled out by his play on defense. Leaning towards the Blazers, although Conley's status might cause the spread to spike once it gets lined. And definite on Raptors (I'm guessing anywhere between -7.5 and -9.5 depending on the status of Rudy Yag) as Kings on B2B/3 In 4/5 in 7 and just looking to get this disastrous road trip over and done with.
 
Adding:

11/6/2016 12:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 Utah Jazz/New York Knicks* Under 92½ -110 for 1st Half
11/6/2016 3:35 PM NBA Basketball 503 Portland Trail Blazers* -3½ -110 vs Memphis Grizzlies
11/6/2016 6:05 PM NBA Basketball 506 Toronto Raptors* -9½ -110 vs Sacramento Kings
11/6/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 509 Denver Nuggets* Under 101½ -110 vs Boston Celtics
11/6/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 510 Boston Celtics* -7½ -110 vs Denver Nuggets

*Almost always a disaster when I bet this many games, but what can you do...

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hey hugh....good luck this season....good to have tunes back in the thread....fwiw...brad focused on d in the practice sessions between games as he feels that the c's are out of position and not paying attention to the detail as they should....if they listen it bodes well for your under...
 
Thanks BJ. Yeah, the Celtics defense has been atrocious (to put it mildly) to start the season but at least part of the blame can be attributed to injuries (Horford, Smart, Olynyk, Crowder) and having rotations not accustomed to playing with one another and, like you said, not having the proper spacing on the floor. Hopefully Olynyk's back tonight (looks 50/50 at the moment) to help out on the glass. As for the Nuggets, that Denver offense has just vanished the last 5 quarters (14 in the 4th quarter against Minnesota, 86 in the game against Detroit). Part of that can be attributed to Will Barton's absence (more so the Pistons game where they shot 33%), but a lot of that has to go on the shoulders of Emmanuel Mudiay. Yeah, I know he's still a kid, plenty of upside, blah, blah, blah... but learning on the job like this isn't helping him or his team. What other starting PG in the league could put up numbers as atrocious as this (27.1 FG%, 20.0 3P%, 3.4 Assists Per Game) and still start every night?

Anyways, thanks for the well wishes BJ, and hope to see you sharing your insights this season (provided you're not too busy jetting around the country, LOL...)

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Adding:

11/6/2016 12:05 PM NBA Basketball 501 Utah Jazz/New York Knicks* Under 101½ -110 for 2nd Half

*Always nice to start the day out in a hole (fucking Jazz suck so much fucking ass...)

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Sorry to see this. I like Denver a lot. They made 0 effort last game very clearly remembering the 21 point home loss. GL
 
Adding:

11/6/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Milwaukee Bucks* Under 49½ -110 vs Dallas Mavericks for 2nd Half

*Apparently Emmanuel Mudiay read my post ripping into him... Just an all around disaster today.

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Thanks tuck - I'm sorry to see it too...
 
so much for brad stressing d....jeez!!!....who the heck is mudiay? i'm pretty sure he isn't considered an offensive threat

c's 2h whatever the number
 
YTD: 18-19-1, -3.00

Monday:

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11/7/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Houston Rockets/Washington Wizards* Over 216½ -110
11/7/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 708 Oklahoma City Thunder* -5½ -110 vs Miami Heat
11/7/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 714 Golden State Warriors* -17½ -110 vs New Orleans Pelicans

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Thanks kj and BJ.
 
Adding:

11/7/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Houston Rockets/Washington Wizards* Over 111½ -110 for 1st Half
11/7/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 706 Philadelphia 76ers* Under 44½ -110 vs Utah Jazz for 1st Half

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*Essentially double dipping on the Wizards total (and we all saw how well that worked out in the Utah game yesterday afternoon) but, let's face it, if the scoring isn't there in the 1H, odds are it won't be there in the 2H (Houston's scoring averages dip from 62.0 PF, 57.5 PA in the 1H to 46.0 PF, 50.7 PA). Plus, elevated pace helps shooters like Wall and Beal, so let's hope the scoring's there in the 1H... And speaking of the aforementioned Jazz, I'd say they owe me for yesterday's spiral down the rabbit hole (Emmanuel Mudiay apparently read my post yesterday, why not Quin Snyder?) For all the scoring in yesterday's game, there actually wasn't much pace, just poor defense (and a lot of free throws). Whether or not the combo of Favors and Gobert can contain Embiid remains to be seen, but the Sixers offense is fairly anemic as is (plus there's bound to be some hangover effect to start the game after the Cavs debacle - the best they could do was get the ball into Gerald Henderson who couldn't even get away a shot?) Plus, the Sixers have played the Jazz four times the past two seasons, racking up 1H totals of 32, 42, 33 and 45 in the process. Think Utah hunkers down in this one after that poor defensive showing against the Knicks.

0-5, here I come...

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Adding:

11/7/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 711 Detroit Pistons/Los Angeles Clippers* Under 197 -110

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*Clippers top rated defense in the league (#1 DRtg at 90.7, #1 PPG at 90.7, #2 FG% at 40.9%) up against a top five defense in Detroit (#4 DRtg at 95.5, #2 PPG at 93.0, #3 FG% at 41.0%). First game of a road trip vs. first game of a homestand and a million trends supporting the under. Should finish 120-117...

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Just peeking ahead to tomorrow night, what a sad looking slate of games. The 'obvious' one would be the Lakers at only -4.5 (expect it to steam to at least -6 by tipoff). Not sure if it's a trap, the books overvaluing Dallas, or undervaluing Los Angeles. Either way, I'll jump on it before the end of the night. Also liking the Blazers quite a bit although, as I mentioned at the start of the season, I'm a bit biased in that regards. Safer option might be the Portland team total over at around 112.5 as the Suns with a league worst 113.3 PPG, and allowing a minimum 111 in six of their seven games. Or maybe just the over period as the Blazers aren't exactly a defensive juggernaut either. And Denver/Memphis seems like an under to me (or, at the very least, one of those games that just manages to sneak over). I guess I'll sleep on it...
 
YTD: 22-21-1, -1.20

Tuesday:

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11/8/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 503 Minnesota Timberwolves* -150 vs Brooklyn Nets for 1st Half
11/8/2016 8:05 PM NBA Basketball 505 Denver Nuggets/Memphis Grizzlies* Under 201 -110
11/8/2016 10:05 PM NBA Basketball 507 Phoenix Suns/Portland Trail Blazers* Over 218½ -110
11/8/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 512 Los Angeles Lakers* -4½ -110 vs Dallas Mavericks

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*Pretty rare for me to make a ML bet, but the T-Wolves have been leading at the half in four of their five games thus far, which is fairly odd considering they're 1-4 on the season (+9.2 in the 1H, -8.0 in the 2H). Don't trust them enough to be laying a full 4 on the road, but their perimeter defense has been good at limiting their opponents chances from outside, which has been the Nets go to so far this season, so if the tone isn't established in the 1H, odds are it won't be in the 2H either, so...

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Thanks BJ. Apparently a Tom Thibodeau defense doesn't look as good when you don't have a Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah or Luol Deng on your team. And, of course, 8-14 from the FT line to lose the 1H by a point...
 
Thanks BJ. Apparently a Tom Thibodeau defense doesn't look as good when you don't have a Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah or Luol Deng on your team. And, of course, 8-14 from the FT line to lose the 1H by a point...

painful....I was right there with you....need them to fold in the 2nd
 
Adding:

11/8/2016 10:35 PM NBA Basketball 509 New Orleans Pelicans/Sacramento Kings* Under 103½ -110 for 1st Half

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Thanks BJ.
 
*Just going off a trend I saw over at Scores And Odds - on nights like these, it's pretty obvious there's no point in me trying to handicap anything...

NBA
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(509) NEW ORLEANS @ (510) SACRAMENTO | 11/08/2016 - 10:35 PM

Play UNDER NEW ORLEANS on the first half total in Road games first half of the season
The record is 7 Overs and 29 Unders for the last three seasons (+21.30 units)
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*Just looking ahead to tomorrow night, a few games to think about: pretty good bounce back spot for the Pistons after the thrashing at Staples. Detroit dominates the H2H trends (20-8 ATS), and if Tyson Chandler sits out again, that could be huge for Andre Drummond. Based on what I saw tonight, MIN/ORL seems an obvious over (watch the T-Wolves dominate the 1H. Fuckers...) ATL in a good spot with the big win against Cleveland, and Chicago looking ahead to Miami the next night. Jazz/Hornets seems like an under, although that'll depend on the number (I'm thinking 191-194). Spurs in a big bounce back spot. And Warriors, maybe (Mavs in a B2B/3 IN 4, so line should be around -14,-15.5 I would think). Better option might be Warriors 1H (-9.5?)

Hopefully turns out better than the way tonight's looking (Suns/Blazers limping to the finish line...)
 
*Just looking ahead to tomorrow night, a few games to think about: pretty good bounce back spot for the Pistons after the thrashing at Staples. Detroit dominates the H2H trends (20-8 ATS), and if Tyson Chandler sits out again, that could be huge for Andre Drummond. Based on what I saw tonight, MIN/ORL seems an obvious over (watch the T-Wolves dominate the 1H. Fuckers...) ATL in a good spot with the big win against Cleveland, and Chicago looking ahead to Miami the next night. Jazz/Hornets seems like an under, although that'll depend on the number (I'm thinking 191-194). Spurs in a big bounce back spot. And Warriors, maybe (Mavs in a B2B/3 IN 4, so line should be around -14,-15.5 I would think). Better option might be Warriors 1H (-9.5?)

Hopefully turns out better than the way tonight's looking (Suns/Blazers limping to the finish line...)

I don't know about the Warriors. Bogut and Barnes scare me.
 
90's Month Continues...

YTD: 24-24-1, -2.90

Wednesday:

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11/9/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 707 Utah Jazz/Charlotte Hornets* Under 193½ -110
11/9/2016 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 709 Philadelphia 76ers* Under 99 -110 vs Indiana Pacers
11/9/2016 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 712 Atlanta Hawks* -2½ -118 vs Chicago Bulls

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Thanks wowjhh.
 
*I would say about the only solace I take in this miserable start to the season is that it seems the other respected members of the forum have gotten off to slow starts as well (nbafan, emkee, Lex, divol, etc...) For that matter, seems like it's slow going all around as some of my old friends from Covers are having a rough go as well (PapaShango, canadiantruth, etc...) I don't know, maybe we should start posting imaginary lines and prices as well until business picks up...

Hopefully start kicking into gear at some point...

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