NLDS/ALDS Playoffs Discussion

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
Would like to start some talk about the playoffs as I've pretty much checked out on the day-to-day grind.

Any matchups you think favor a certain team? I'm looking to go against LAD and TOR, HOU if they get there but I have a feeling they won't

thoughts welcome :shake:
 
This year we will see some new blood: Cubs, Mets and Jays.. Good chance I will be against the Royals in some sort of fashion 8-13 in the month of September and what was a large lead for AL's beast record has sputtered to 2 games that pen, which was a huge strength for them, has begun to sputter. Holland has a wonky elbow and would not be surprised to see him go on DL eventually or end his season early luckily they have Davis who is pitching lights out, I think Cueto is playing hurt as he hasn't looked that great all season

Regarding Jays: They have the right club house guys for a team that is going to break their post-season drought. Although it will be a first for a lot of these guys, they have guys who have been there: Martin, Donaldson, Pennington, Price, Beuhrle, Tulo who are ALL clubhouse guys and leaders. What used to be the voice of the Dominicans has changed since Martin/Donaldson got there and changed even more after the Reyes trade. I know Vegas/Toronto fans think they should be WS favs and it's possible it's all about getting hot at the right time (Tulo timing can be huge, resting 3/4 of September and hopefully back for round 1. Concerns I do have is Osuna who is a fastball pitcher and when he gives up a hit/homer he reaches back to throw his FB from 94 to 99 and often misses or becomes a cockshot for hitters who take it yard again, but overall the pen. I know they have been one of the best since AS break but man they can be shaky at times.
 
The two teams that I want to fade in the NL would probably be matched up together if things ended today and they are LAD/NYM...Mets on a great run but I'm not sure that rotation will last especially if they are removing Harvey from it on IP limits...then you have Syndeergaard who has pitched alot in his first year and DeGrom is quickly if not surpassed his previous IP totals..Jeurys Familia isn't much of a closer either.
 
I think tejas can surprise, that rotation is coming to and Beltre woke up finally....regarding yanks, that rotation is a mess
 
No understanding of a Toronto fade.
more of a price thing, I think, but let's say Jays are lined -170 with price in game 1 against any team in the AL...well it's a lot harder to back -170 in the playoffs with the perception of youth on the jays team + Price's playoff resume..I get where G is coming from
 
Yeah, I don't trust the Blow Jays pen to deliver a WS title, but it along with their batting is good enough to win a series or 2. Also don't like a team so dependent, like the Yankees, on the long ball @playoff time.

------

Holland is done for the season; Wade is the Royals new closer. Saw a live game of theirs awhile back, graphic came up about how their shutdown pen guys were getting caned at that point in that particular month (August, from memory). 2 solid seasons of work/pressure seems to be taking its toll. This season they're playing as the hunted, not the hunter.

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Don't think the Cardinals have the bats to justify their inevitably being overpriced. Winner of the Pirates/Cubs playoff game will be my pick to win the NL.
 
Pirates are going to miss Kang, but still think they have a good shot to come out of the NL. Toronto is the obvious pick in the AL, and for good reason. I think Texas is the second best team in that league right now. Whoever catches Houston will beat the Yankees in the AL wildcard game.
 
No understanding of a Toronto fade.

If Tulo is back I wholeheartedly agree with this. Four weeks for a fractured scapula is pushing it though. If no Tulo it wouldn't surprise me to any of the AL qualifiers make it through.

The NL may have the five best teams and one of them will be out after one game. It's easy to look at StL and go nah, not enough offense, too many injuries, whatever, but they seem to overcome everything, they're experienced and they don't lose at home. If Molina is back anywhere close to 100% I think they'll win it all. If he's not then the NL is as wide open as the AL. Gonna be a great post season.
 
Everyone talking about fading dodgers.

That's usually a good thing.

I think rangers won't last long.
 
Jeurys Familia isn't much of a closer either.




You can't be serious.

I've watched every inning of every Mets game this season and I can say quite confidently that Familia might have the best stuff on the back end of any pitching staff in the bigs. You want to question the bullpen? I get that, but Familia has been a huge reason for the Mets success.
 
I'll also add that I think Harvey put that innings limit controversy quietly to bed this afternoon. That probably will get lost on the Sunday morning Sportscenter.
 
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The New York Yankees are optimistic injured right-hander Masahiro Tanakawill return to the rotation before the end of the regular season. The only question now remains when.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi indicated the club is targeting a return for Thursday, at the latest, which would line up Tanaka for the potential Oct. 6 wild-card game on regular rest.
"That's something we have to decide on how he feels," Girardi told reporters Sunday's finale versus the Chicago White Sox. "I know everyone wants an answer, but it's really not that simple because of his value to us moving forward."
Tanaka, meanwhile, remains sidelined with a right hamstring injury suffered while running the bases earlier this month during interleague play. He reported feeling good after completing a throwing session on flat ground Sunday, but was hesitant to proclaim himself ready to return.
"I'm not ready to talk anything about that yet. As for now, for me, I'm just happy with the way I'm progressing."
The Yankees, who lead the wild card by 4 1/2 games over Houston, continue their pursuit of a playoff appearance Monday when they host the Red Sox for four games in New York.
Toronto`s magic number to clinch the AL East is four.
 
Yeah, I don't trust the Blow Jays pen to deliver a WS title, but it along with their batting is good enough to win a series or 2. Also don't like a team so dependent, like the Yankees, on the long ball @playoff time.

------

Holland is done for the season; Wade is the Royals new closer. Saw a live game of theirs awhile back, graphic came up about how their shutdown pen guys were getting caned at that point in that particular month (August, from memory). 2 solid seasons of work/pressure seems to be taking its toll. This season they're playing as the hunted, not the hunter.

------

Don't think the Cardinals have the bats to justify their inevitably being overpriced. Winner of the Pirates/Cubs playoff game will be my pick to win the NL.

hunted vs hunter is definitely a thing, but Holland should have ceded that closer role to Wade Davis a long time ago and Yost was basically grooming Davis for the role this season giving him save chances far more often than just when Holland had worked three days in a row. Herrera sliding into the 8th is still nasty as ever, then they have a lot more out there as well as a great combination of catching the ball and not striking out. I'm hoping they get matched up with TOR and get a decent price tag if TOR wins the pennant thanks to those bats...

Also, would caution people on backing the Cubs because they have been one of the most fortunate teams in baseball this year. They beat me on their RSW total, but came back in so many games with a bad bullpen and at one point in September had the lowest BA in the league yet were 20+ games over .500. The pitcher batting 8th stuff is so stupid, will look to be against that team until they're eliminated, but not sure I want to be against the god that is Jake Arrieta right now

If Tulo is back I wholeheartedly agree with this. Four weeks for a fractured scapula is pushing it though. If no Tulo it wouldn't surprise me to any of the AL qualifiers make it through.

The NL may have the five best teams and one of them will be out after one game. It's easy to look at StL and go nah, not enough offense, too many injuries, whatever, but they seem to overcome everything, they're experienced and they don't lose at home. If Molina is back anywhere close to 100% I think they'll win it all. If he's not then the NL is as wide open as the AL. Gonna be a great post season.

not sure we can count on Yadi, but I think we're underselling how deep that bullpen is. They can hit well enough to win games and though most teams in the playoffs have a solid bullpen, I think they're one of the most likely to keep a lead if they get one to the 5th/6th

You can't be serious.

I've watched every inning of every Mets game this season and I can say quite confidently that Familia might have the best stuff on the back end of any pitching staff in the bigs. You want to question the bullpen? I get that, but Familia has been a huge reason for the Mets success.

Familia was damn good against me this year

The New York Yankees are optimistic injured right-hander Masahiro Tanakawill return to the rotation before the end of the regular season. The only question now remains when.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi indicated the club is targeting a return for Thursday, at the latest, which would line up Tanaka for the potential Oct. 6 wild-card game on regular rest.
"That's something we have to decide on how he feels," Girardi told reporters Sunday's finale versus the Chicago White Sox. "I know everyone wants an answer, but it's really not that simple because of his value to us moving forward."
Tanaka, meanwhile, remains sidelined with a right hamstring injury suffered while running the bases earlier this month during interleague play. He reported feeling good after completing a throwing session on flat ground Sunday, but was hesitant to proclaim himself ready to return.
"I'm not ready to talk anything about that yet. As for now, for me, I'm just happy with the way I'm progressing."
The Yankees, who lead the wild card by 4 1/2 games over Houston, continue their pursuit of a playoff appearance Monday when they host the Red Sox for four games in New York.
Toronto`s magic number to clinch the AL East is four.

that sounds like a huge risk, but then again who else would they want to start that game? Sucks that the season is now basically see what decent staff exists at the end of the year instead of a best talent thing
 
Wainwright officially joining the BP this year for the playoff run...that could be nasty..
 
Royals look like absolute shit lately....trying not to read too much into it. I lived in St Louis in 2006 when the Cards crapped their way down the stretch and were playing so bad that new Busch Stadium was half empty in September....and they won the series.

Its almost 100% going to be Royals/Rangers. Ventura/Hamels game 1 at the K next Thursday. Royals cant hit a changeup at all from a lefty (see numbers v John Danks).
 
ALDS/NLDS Discussions

I know there's a wild card discussion, but let's start with the series we know and we can add:

BJs/Rangers
Mets/Dodgers


I'm hoping game 1 in Toronto will feature Price/Gallardo....Jays are 4-2 against the Rangers this year, both losses have come against Gallardo who has kept them off balance.... should be interesting the price...then game 2 should be Stro Show/Hamels

City will be buzzing, but first playoff appearance since 1993...tighter grips possibly, but enough club house guys who have been there: Martin, Donaldson, Price, Pennington, Tulo etc.
 
ROYALS FANS UNITE LETS DO THIS


Who does KC want to face....NY or HOU? Royals won 2/3 at home v Yanks and lost 2/3 @ Yanks. Pineda went Sunday so he'd throw game 2 Friday....who would throw a Game 1 for NYY right now? Probably Severino, then Pineda, then Tanaka G3.

Houston has McHugh for a Game 1.
 
I am no Royals fan, but many friends are so I've taken an interest, and my thoughts.

KC are much better when they perceive themselves as underdogs, and that's tough to do when you finish with the one seed. But there's a path...need NYY to win the WC, Yanks vs Royals gives them the opportunity to play the us against the world card no matter how true it is. Obviously Houston would be the complete opposite.

Toronto were Vegas faves to win the WS a couple weeks ago, I don't know the current odds...but facing Toronto in the ALCS would be much more desirable than Texas. Kauffman just isn't hitter friendly, and KC defense isn't either, but they can still play the perceived underdog role against the Jays.

Then, STL or LAD in the series, obviously both teams would give built in motivation. I really think KC thrives off the underdog label and they'll have to manufacture it this year. But there are opportunities.
 
Looked at WS odds this morning, think it goes Toronto-SL-LAD-KC as far as champ chalk goes, but it's all fairly close among those teams.
 
I think mild rooting, or maybe avid rooting against, is going to pollute my handicapping of these playoffs, so I should probably tread lightly. Got a few teams I love to hate in here, Yanks, Mutts, Dodgers ...
 
From NY Post:

The Matt Harvey drama isn’t over, yet.

The Mets star pitcher was a no-show at the team’s Tuesday workout, according to general manager Sandy Alderson.
Alderson did not wish to comment further until he knew the reason for Harvey’s absence. But Alderson said the workout was mandatory and, to his knowledge, Harvey was the only Mets player not to show.
 
Can somebody please post probables once they are known

TOR/TEX
G1 Price v Gallardo
G2 Stroman v Hamels
G3 Estrada v ?
G4 Dickey v ?

I'm assuming Lewis is 3 and Holland or Perez is 4, then back to the G1 starters
 
Can somebody please post probables once they are known

TOR/TEX
G1 Price v Gallardo
G2 Stroman v Hamels
G3 Estrada v ?
G4 Dickey v ?

I'm assuming Lewis is 3 and Holland or Perez is 4, then back to the G1 starters

Rangers arent announcing G3 till Friday I think they said, but my guess is you're right, maybe they go back to Gallardo if down 2-1 in G4
 
Rangers arent announcing G3 till Friday I think they said, but my guess is you're right, maybe they go back to Gallardo if down 2-1 in G4

yeh, not sure about Holland given he is only just come back.

I want to run the correct score through a simulator. Might have to throw in assumptions in teams don't announce
 
Cardinals have palpably paid the price for playing injured players in G 2: both Molina & Holliday have allowed extra bases due to their physical handicaps.
 
Very interested in LAD g3.

NYM bats don't deserve to lay $0.80 and Anderson can keep them quiet. Emotions aren't always a good thing, also not sold on how Harvey will perform in his first playoff start.

Expecting a similar lineup to what Collins used vs Kershaw, so:
Granderson 9
Wright 5
Yo 8
Murphy 4
d'Arnaud 2
Duda 3
Cuddyer 7
Flores 6

On the other side for LAD I would really hope Crawford doesn't lead off:
Kendrick 4
Seager 6
AGon 3
Turner 5
Ethier 9
Crawford 7
Grandal 2
Pederson/Kike 8

Seems like Don may try something different again and I don't like the LL twice, but that's tough to project.

In terms of bullpens, I definitely don't want to be trailing and see clippard/familia, but if it's close and we get in a battle I don't mind a big pricetag with Jansen at the end as he doesn't blow saves. Not a huge hatcher fan/I think he sucks, but I've always liked Peralta and Howell's been great this year
 
Wow, Anderson unseen by NYM

EDIT: yahoo sucks but only granderson and cuddyer have seen him in that projected lineup.

On the other side, Rollins has two HR in 19 AB vs Harvey so I wonder if they sit Seager and start him. Utley also with a dinger, but I can't imagine his appeal nullifies a full suspension
 
Agree with you that Mets are too high at ~180 but I still have no interest in backing Anderson, the weakest starter in this series. Gut feeling is the Mets win it and we get to see if deGrom can best Kershaw again with Kershaw pitching for their season.
 
Agree with you that Mets are too high at ~180 but I still have no interest in backing Anderson, the weakest starter in this series. Gut feeling is the Mets win it and we get to see if deGrom can best Kershaw again with Kershaw pitching for their season.

Mets already announced Matz is G4 starter. Degrom pitches G5
 
Oh for some reason my phone was showing a total of 5.5 for the cards/cubs


Cards TT over is 2.5 over -115.... id go under
 
Wind:
WSW 20 mph
ssw.gif

<tbody>
[TD="bgcolor: #E0E0E0, colspan: 12, align: left"] St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs – 5:07 CDT - Wrigley Field Air Density Index: 63 [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f0f0f0, align: center"]Time:[/TD]
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[TD="align: center"]Temp:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]71°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]72°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]71°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]70°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]68°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]66°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]64°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]62°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]60°[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]Humidity:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]36%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]33%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]32%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]33%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]38%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]42%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]45%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]48%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]50%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]Feels like:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]77°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]77°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]76°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]70°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]68°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]66°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]64°[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]62°[/TD]
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[TD="align: center"]Condition:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Partly Cloudy[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]Clear[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]Precip%:[/TD]
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[TD="align: center"]Wind:[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]WSW 17 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]WSW 20 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]WSW 21 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]WSW 20 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]W 16 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC, align: center"]W 17 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]W 16 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]W 17 mph[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFFF, align: center"]WNW 16 mph[/TD]

</tbody>
 
[TABLE="class: tableOdds, width: 1180"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]MLB - 10/12/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct"][/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]10/12/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="margin-left: 11px; margin-top: 7px;" type="checkbox">
10/12

4:05 PM


927 TOR-R Dickey
928 TEX-D Holland (L)
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 13074
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 58%
42%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 67%
33%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 65%
35%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 58%
42%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -135/+125
9.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -145/+134
9.5o-110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -150/+135
10
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -148/+136
9.5u-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -145/+130
9.5u-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -136/+135
9.5o-111/+109
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -169/+145
9.5u-105
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -139/+129
9.5o-120
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="margin-left: 11px; margin-top: 7px;" type="checkbox">
10/12

6:05 PM


923 STL-M Wacha
924 CHC-J Arrieta
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 15239
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 22%
78%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 40%
60%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 29%
71%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 23%
77%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7
-240/+210
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5u-113
-212/+194
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5u-120
-221/+196
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7o-130
-213/+193
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5u-115
-230/+190
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 7.5u-111/+107
-200/+197
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5u-120
-238/+195
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7.5u-120
-215/+195
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: info"][/TD]
[TD="class: team"]
<input id="myg" style="margin-left: 11px; margin-top: 7px;" type="checkbox">
10/12

8:35 PM


921 LAD-B Anderson (L)
922 NYM-M Harvey
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 10549
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 17%
83%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 39%
61%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 59%
41%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 33%
67%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 6.5
-160/+145
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 6.5o-125
-160/+147
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7u-125
-171/+151
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 6.5o-125
-160/+146
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 7u-120
-165/+145
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 6.5o-123/+121
-154/+153
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 6.5o-125
-179/+15
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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RL then ML, right NBA? If so, looks like the people like TOR and NYM but the lines are dropping
 
The MLB replay rule could very well have screwed over Kansas City. Such a terrible use for replay

but stealing 3rd with 2 outs is just plain stupid, idc how fast you are
 
They HAD to steal 3rd there, no debate. He absolutely wasn't going to get thrown out barring that garbage, and KC hasn't been close to touching the curve ball. That was the one way to put pressure on them to throw it. They had to manufacture that run.
 
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