NFL Pre Season Discussion

RBD said:
Inspekdah:
"Fade angles are often better than play on angles."

Exactly!

I've been advising this for years to new bettors but I think my words fall on deaf ears.

Let's look at it from a bettor and a trend POV.

For bettors, what do we know?
We know that most of them lose, estimates have it as high as 95%.
We know that most of them visit forums to find picks to tail, not to post their own picks.
And what do they always look for?
A winning bettor to tail.

The saying "needle in a haystack" comes to mind.

It's much easier to find someone steadily losing at a 46% rate or worse than it is to find someone winning at a 54% rate or better. (And this is even more difficult at most forums, where they let people post fake records. Again, glad I found CTG.)

For trends, here's my take on it.
If winning at sports betting was simply a matter of jumping on winning trends, more people would win.
Bettors see a guy on a run, let's say 13-2, and they're hot to jump on his next pick. But you know when the value on that guy was?
15 games ago.
A win percentage of 86% is unsustainable.
Odds favor reversion toward the mean.

Whenever I'm asked about jumping on streaks here's what I suggest: if you've already played a couple games and banked some money on it, ride the streak until it loses. But if you haven't been riding it don't jump on it.

I'm not saying it's always wrong to jump on a streak.
I never say my way is the right way or wrong way. I just say what I've seen from experience, and what works best for me.

Bettors sometimes have tunnel vision.
They're so invested in looking for that 10-5 guy that they miss the 5-10 guy who is just as valuable - you just fade him. It's the same W %.

In fact, when I'm running games through the 8-10 different methods I use for identifying a bet to make I prefer finding the 5-10 stat rather than the 10-5.
YES, the numbers are the same but I prefer to ride the Fade because it seems to me that winning streaks end sooner, but losing streaks can last longer (just ask the Chicago White Sox.)
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You made some great points to think about.
 
wasn't able to post or play thu games cause was at cancer center all day as theresa had lot of appointments and started new treatment. felt bad leaving her cause she was nervous so missed out on both those unders i liked a lot. oh well, some things more important!

mostly under leans tonighg but i do like the 1st half over 19.5 in the houston/steelers game. i assume we see plenty of Fields and mills in 1st have. not sure if stroud gets a series or 2 but that be a added bonus!

anyone know if pennix heslthy? gotta like atl 1st half if he gonna be playing!


actually lean over and of course ravens! they have emery jones lurking to play qb i assume a good part the 2nd half and think he could show out in preseason. eagles have pickett as a backup, i could see him having a solid preseason. i suppose playing ravens laying -2 makes most sense.
 
2daBank said:
wasn't able to post or play thu games cause was at cancer center all day as theresa had lot of appointments and started new treatment. felt bad leaving her cause she was nervous so missed out on both those unders i liked a lot. oh well, some things more important!

mostly under leans tonighg but i do like the 1st half over 19.5 in the houston/steelers game. i assume we see plenty of Fields and mills in 1st have. not sure if stroud gets a series or 2 but that be a added bonus!

anyone know if pennix heslthy? gotta like atl 1st half if he gonna be playing!


actually lean over and of course ravens! they have emery jones lurking to play qb i assume a good part the 2nd half and think he could show out in preseason. eagles have pickett as a backup, i could see him having a solid preseason. i suppose playing ravens laying -2 makes most sense.
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Supposed to be Penix/Heinecke for ATL tonight, no reason to not take them for the game

Fins have Mike White/Skylar Thompson so will never have the better QB in the game
 
KJ said:
Supposed to be Penix/Heinecke for ATL tonight, no reason to not take them for the game

Fins have Mike White/Skylar Thompson so will never have the better QB in the game
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No Rourke? They just signed him and I would think they'd want to see what he has to see if they can trade/move on from Heineke. If that's the case that's a big drop off vs. guys who have started NFL games.
 
No Russ, Fields expected to play a series or two. Don't think this is a game where is shows his legs off. Kyle Allen who blows is next up and UCF Plumlee should play at least 1+ quarter.
 
Inspekdah said:
No Rourke? They just signed him and I would think they'd want to see what he has to see if they can trade/move on from Heineke. If that's the case that's a big drop off vs. guys who have started NFL games.
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Haven't seen anything about Rourke, if he's playing then I agree. Have only seen Penix/Heinecke as of this morning
 
I've seen Will Grier do work as a 3rd and now he's a 4th?

McKee is pushing Kenny for the #2 job?

Jalen will see a drive or two?

All vs. Josh Johnson as a 1 (I liked him as the Ravens 3/4).

Running into a pre-season train but I don't think that was Harbaugh necessarily but having a DEEP QB room with similarly types of talents.

Eagles will be played.
 
Good thing Drake Maye isn’t penciled as day 1 starter because Milton might be putting some pressure on that spot. Pats D looked strong all around but will be interesting to watch the QBs play it out this preseason.
 
KJ said:
Supposed to be Penix/Heinecke for ATL tonight, no reason to not take them for the game

Fins have Mike White/Skylar Thompson so will never have the better QB in the game
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atl 1st half where i'm at, no interest having any part 4th qrtr when god knows who playing for both sides!
 
s--k said:
Good thing Drake Maye isn’t penciled as day 1 starter because Milton might be putting some pressure on that spot. Pats D looked strong all around but will be interesting to watch the QBs play it out this preseason.
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surely we didn't take much from those games last night? they were the definition of just check out 3rd/4th stringers and get the game over with! lol. gotta think they roll w brissett for at least 6-8 weeks?? what's the point of having a guy like him if you planned on starting the rookie which be dumb imo.
 
@2daBank right it is Brissett. Which was my point. If they were throwing Msye into the fire, if he were to struggle out the gate all the talk would be for Milton, fans/press. So it’s good they have Brissett to get it going.
 
Inspekdah said:
@2daBank Pennix is healthy I guess and been doing great work with the 2s.

I have no idea what to expect in the 2h so 1h seems like a great play
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yea unless im playing a straight under i def prefer 1st halves this week cause the 4th a total guess of bums who prob be cut in 2-3 weeks! cept i do love ravens full game assuming it outta be emory jones big part the 2nd half and think he could put on a show vs bums!
 
i honestly didn't do enough reading so lot of guessing for me on these games just hoping i'm right on who gonna play. i won't be this sloppy on 2marro games or next week, theresa just got really sick on this new treatment so i been spending lot my time taking care of her. think she starting to feel a bit better, plus i got sams zanny bars to mix with her pain meds to get her some sleep! she was up all night and she does not do well without sleep! lol. got her to sleep today and she kept some food down, hoping she sleeps for next several hours with the drug buffet i gave her! give me some time to cap 2marro's games a little better! lol.
 
im gonna start having to factor in the cost of keeping her sedated so i can cap games as part my profit margin!! lmao
 
Late post but ended up playing Texans -160 to win 8u.

Mills and Keenum moved the ball easily. Second preseason game. Do not like Steelers 2 and 3 QBs tonight.
 
2daBank said:
yea unless im playing a straight under i def prefer 1st halves this week cause the 4th a total guess of bums who prob be cut in 2-3 weeks! cept i do love ravens full game assuming it outta be emory jones big part the 2nd half and think he could put on a show vs bums!
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Bunch of trends of seen favoring over in the PHI/BAL game for preseason from players to coaches to new scheme for Philly. Emory Jones shouldn't hurt that. I like it tonight.
 
stroud to dell, that gonna happen a lot this year! now cmon fields, you want the job you need to put up a score this drive.
 
dumb fuck tomlin should have challenged that, it was 1st down. god his in game desicions are trash! this drive should still be going. dumb mfer!
 
i saw 12 year old boys and u17 year old girls playing flag football last week who all would have made that throw! smith actually made great play call and that loser qb missed him. he should be cut 2marro
 
so 1st half woulda cashed over had allen hit that wide open dude in end zone!! instead need another td in last 4 min. best case would prob be steelers go 3 and out or allen throws a pick then mills punches one more in. so pissed, between tomlin not challenging then that scrub missing wide open td and this 1st over over cashedcessyZz
 
no clue why texans wasted a minute before getting into score mode? chalk up the 1st absolutely right side play that loses this preseason. lol. fuck. had tomlin simply challenged a obvious 1st down steelers get at least a fg that drive. then allen misses the easy td, steelers shoulda had 10 minimum. texans coulda went over themselves if they let mills run the complete 2 min drill. that was a shitty 1st half over to lose cause it was without a doubt the right play. oh well, on to next.

if ravens go into half tied love their chances to win, philly had qb edge all half, confident emory jones wins 2nd half and ravens start working on new preseason win streak!
 
Rourke is horrible.

I expected more offense out of Eagles to be honest.

Steelers are who we thought they were!
 
Inspekdah said:
First play:

Patriots -6 -125. I see lots of juiced 6.5s and some 7s. Took the best 6 I could find.

9 units risked to win 7.2

1u parlay with 20% boost

Patriots -6
Browns ML
Texans ML
Eagles ML

+920
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This is live with Browns ML, but I’ll likely add spread. The best QB room in the X but just looking to see projected snaps.

2-0 with Pats and Texans so far.

Bengals should hold on to any lead they get from Joe and Jake.

But I’m a pre season degen and I need to see if I can make a play on the 12 and 1 o’clock games.
 
Patrick9 said:
very nice on NE

but Harbaugh 15-1 SU in week one preseason is scary
I think the under is more the play here. They also will play in reg season
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1-0

Why didn't Harbaugh go for 2 and the win?

LVR -3 (heavy juice) and running with all that steam

maybe it's the Pavlov's dog in me, even though it's only the preseason, but I can't lay more than the FG
 
Inspekdah said:
All about finding QBs who can produce after the starters sit/come out of the game.
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It's why this thread is so great, it's like day trading because micromanaging the product is really not fun for me

That said I know the science involved, just not interested enough in it like you guys are and it's insanely appreciated
 
Bigger thing about this stuff is now these teams are practicing together all week anymore and I'm much more interested in Wed/Thur type stuff out of practice than when they actually meet up for the game at the end of the week. I have tried to do a tad more digging into the midweek practices since there is so much more emphasis on those
 
KJ said:
It's why this thread is so great, it's like day trading because micromanaging the product is really not fun for me

That said I know the science involved, just not interested enough in it like you guys are and it's insanely appreciated
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I'm not great at capping sports like many here.

My best results are in preseason, and when teams are tanking/nothing to play, trying to find good fade angles. This forum a few years back had some great spring training bases, too.

I picked up doing well in X about 15 years ago when I was really into fantasy and had apps that gave me info on depth charts and notes about snaps, etc.

And if you watch enough college and X you get a feel for who can move the ball vs. who can't.
 
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Jordan Love and starters expected to play for GB and we still see 5.5s and 6s out there....

DTR and Huntley are the best of preseason football.

Just hope Winston doesn't throw 3 pick 6s.
 
Inspekdah said:
I'm not great at capping sports like many here.

My best results are in preseason, and when teams are tanking/nothing to play, trying to find good fade angles. This forum a few years back had some great spring training bases, too.

I picked up doing well in X about 15 years ago when I was really into fantasy and had apps that gave me info on depth charts and notes about snaps, etc.

And if you watch enough college and X you get a feel for who can move the ball vs. who can't.
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To that point, you've known me long enough to know I'm much more comfortable fading x than betting on y

Thing with Spring Training and XFL or whatever is I want to fade everything lol
 
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