NFL Playoffs Lookahead Discussion

[GWarner27]

Figure we can get some scenarios and futures talk going as we know the 6 AFC teams and 4 of 6 NFC.

I have GB -3 @DET, though it may be a bit higher than that as public sentiment is all over GB. Tonight's performance can swing things certainly, but a win doesn't matter for the division.

Don't think DEN gives OAK a win, so that means if KC beats SD they win the division and get a bye.

PIT is clearly NE's biggest threat and I think they can go into Foxboro and win.

Washington looks like they'll run into a bunch of NYG backups so a DET loss tonight likely puts them into the playoffs as the tie actually helps them beat out the two 9-7 North teams. TB looks like they'll win, but that'll put them 9-7 and likely out.

NE is a huge favorite all of a sudden so that must mean MIA is sitting Ajayi and possibly Alonso to get him healthier as he missed the ARI game a few weeks ago due to injury. Can they afford not to give Moore reps? I think he needs to play, but obviously losing him and using their 3rd-string would be disastrous

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Figure we can get some scenarios and futures talk going as we know the 6 AFC teams and 4 of 6 NFC.

I have GB -3 @DET, though it may be a bit higher than that as public sentiment is all over GB. Tonight's performance can swing things certainly, but a win doesn't matter for the division.

Don't think DEN gives OAK a win, so that means if KC beats SD they win the division and get a bye.

PIT is clearly NE's biggest threat and I think they can go into Foxboro and win.

Washington looks like they'll run into a bunch of NYG backups so a DET loss tonight likely puts them into the playoffs as the tie actually helps them beat out the two 9-7 North teams. TB looks like they'll win, but that'll put them 9-7 and likely out.

NE is a huge favorite all of a sudden so that must mean MIA is sitting Ajayi and possibly Alonso to get him healthier as he missed the ARI game a few weeks ago due to injury. Can they afford not to give Moore reps? I think he needs to play, but obviously losing him and using their 3rd-string would be disastrous

Pitt's D has been kind of a sieve on the road, but I guess they could win a who-has-the-ball-last shootout.

 

[GWarner27]

NE has been better defensively lately, but they're not great and a lot has been said about the PIT defense improving lately as well

 

[Zeke]

I don't get why the Pats don't have #1 seed wrapped up. If they lose & Oakland wins next week they will both have identical records overall, division & conference. Is the next tie breaker something that could put Oakland on top?

 

[hugh613]

I don't get why the Pats don't have #1 seed wrapped up. If they lose & Oakland wins next week they will both have identical records overall, division & conference. Is the next tie breaker something that could put Oakland on top?

I think it's strength of schedule, but I could be wrong.

 

[Zeke]

I assume the higher the number on SOS the tougher the schedule. If so the Pats apparently had the 2nd easiest SOS behind Miami. I don't get that when the other teams in Seattle's division combined have as many fucking wins as the Pats. How does Seattle not have the easiest SOS?

 

[hugh613]

Seems like kind of an iffy tiebreaker to me. I would think some combination of MOV and SOS would be more fair given how many times the Pats led wire to wire and how many times the Raiders had to come from behind.

 

[Zeke]

1. Head to head
2. Division
3. Common opponents
4. Conference
5. SOV
6. SOS

Without looking maybe Oak has the common opponents over them cause conference would be the same & Pats must have SOV sewn up.

 

[emkee]

Playoffs are a toss-up, flawed team with the less flaws wins.

 

[Capaholic]

NE has been better defensively lately, but they're not great and a lot has been said about the PIT defense improving lately as well

I agree they have been better. But I caution people that Their last four offensive opponents were SF, Balt, Denver and Jets

23,25,26 and 30 ranks by FO

Think about that. SF was the best of those four.

 

[GWarner27]

feel that and thought the same

 

[Zeke]

Cap - as a Pats fan that crosses my mind every weekend.

However they were able to hang 30 on one of the NFL's "elite defenses". I pegged Baltimore as a fraud all season but if they are the litmus test the Pats offense passed. Two of Balti's TDs were gift wrapped.

 

[GWarner27]

Just spitballin, but PIT +3.5 @ NE in the AFC Champ? I think I'm taking PIT anything above 3

 

[nbafan88]

I would like to know big ben's playoff road stats compared to home. In the regular season the difference is night and day


tom Brady absolutely owns the Steelers and I don't see the pats scoring less than 4 TDs.

 

[jk16]

Never take the Lions.

 

[Gandolf]

Just spitballin, but PIT +3.5 @ NE in the AFC Champ? I think I'm taking PIT anything above 3

You'll get it. That line would be more like 6-7.

 

[GWarner27]

seems high but i won't complain

 

[Gandolf]

I would like to know big ben's playoff road stats compared to home. In the regular season the difference is night and day


tom Brady absolutely owns the Steelers and I don't see the pats scoring less than 4 TDs.

They had that big run from the wildcard spot in 2005 that skews the overall numbers a bit.

After 2005 he only has three road games and two neutral field games:

2008 Super Bowl - 21-30, 256 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int, 93.2 rating (before the GW drive he was 15-22, 173 yds, 0 TD, 1 Int, 72.7 rating) 20 points on offense

2010 Super Bowl - 25-40, 263 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int, 77.4 rating - net 18 points of offense (threw pick 6)

2011 at Denver (vs Tebow) - 22-40, 289 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int, 75.9 rating - 23 points of offense

2015 at Cincinnati (vs McCarron) - 18-31, 229 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int, 92.0 rating - 18 points of offense

2015 at Denver (vs Sheriff) - 24-37, 339 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int, 94.3 rating - 16 points of offense

Career passer rating of 94.1 only exceeded once in five.

 

[Capaholic]

Just spitballin, but PIT +3.5 @ NE in the AFC Champ? I think I'm taking PIT anything above 3

I'm not saying I'm super connected or anything but a guy I know and trust in the desert said all things remaining the same it would open NE 6.5/7 against Pitt

NE -10 against KC. Not sure on Oakland yet. Carr would have been around 10.

FWIW

 

[D-Woww]

If GB and Detroit conspire to tie Sunday night itll be the best thing that ever happened in football

 

[GWarner27]

Goodell would probably look the other way

 

[GWarner27]

or suspend Tom Brady

 

[twinkie13]

I think it's strength of schedule, but I could be wrong.

they
really do this in the NFL?

I see it is last, but wow if that ever came down to it

 

[Zeke]

Twink it's far from last, there are several below it, I only listed the top 6. Not even sure what strength of victory means, net points or victories verse solid opponents.

 

[hugh613]

Twink it's far from last, there are several below it, I only listed the top 6. Not even sure what strength of victory means, net points or victories verse solid opponents.

"Strength Of Victory" is the combined winning percentage of the teams you have beaten, whereas "Strength Of Schedule" is the combined winning percentage of the teams you have played.

Like I said though, MOV seems like a slightly better barometer given how many come from behind wins the Raiders had to pull off.

 

[D-Woww]

That kind of sucks...so a team could play pittsburgh in a random big ben injury week & beat landry jones & get lots of credit for that

 

[aplous]

I dont see how Pitt would ever get NE off the field especially in NE. Flacco moved the ball at will at Pitt. I know Baltimore knows them Pitt well and every game is different but that Pitt D doesnt scare anyone.

 

[GWarner27]

i'm not sure NE's does either, but in today's league with all the questionable calls and better ratings from tight games plus my sick attraction to plus-signs...

I do expect NE to completely unleash Dion Lewis in the playoffs as they seem to have been holding back with him and only doing it in bursts. That is scary

 

[Gandolf]

#1 seeds on are a 3 year Super Bowl streak. Would think we are due for a lower seed or two.

Before that the seeds getting to the big game:

2012
#4 Balt- Beat #5, then #1, then #2
#2 SF - Bye, beat #3 and #1

2011
#4 NYG - Beat #5, then #1, then #2

2010
#2 Pitt - Bye, beat #5 and #6
#6 GB - Beat #3, then #1, then #2

2009 - Both #1s (Indy, NO)

The last #5 seed to make the Super Bowl? 2007 NY Giant Killers

The last #3 seed to make the Super Bowl? 2006 Indy Colts

 

[GWarner27]

when did they switch to the re-seeding? That's a big deal to help the 1-seed

BC where you at

 

[KJ]

They've been re-seeding awhile. Only way the Cards hosted the NFC ship game in '08 was 6 seed Eagles knocked off 1 seed Giants

 

[nbafan88]

Update thread title?


current spreads for wild card weekend

Raiders @ Texans -3/37
Lions @ Seahawks -7/43
Dolphins @ Steelers -10/47.5
Giants @ Packers -4.5/44.4

 

[GWarner27]

surprised HOU is favored all the way up to 3, but the OAK "display" today was disastrous

think the only thing worth looking at for me is NYG, especially if those CBs are all out

 

[Lareux]

when did they switch to the re-seeding? That's a big deal to help the 1-seed

BC where you at

2002

 

[nbafan88]

That Giants packers game is gonna be something else. Cannot wait. I will not be touching the game in any way whatsoever.

 

[Gandolf]

I see forecasts in the teens for Green Bay, 20's for Pittsburgh, mid-30s for Seattle with possible rain, and the usual 70 in Houston.

 

[Capaholic]

I wanted to fade Oakland, Houston, Detroit and Seattle come playoff time.... Lovely ...

Lean Miami and Pack

 

[cogenman]

I see forecasts in the teens for Green Bay, 20's for Pittsburgh, mid-30s for Seattle with possible rain, and the usual 70 in Houston.

They just said single digits now in GB. Gonna be cold. Although I think both QB's can handle it.

 

[CrimsonK]

View attachment 41854

 

[Pyppurs]

 

[dudleysdad]

Really like Atlanta to make the super bowl