In your theory, Baker would have went 3 to the Jets so they would not have gotten him at 4. Gettelman had rated Barkley as best player he has ever scouted other than Peyton Manning. Do you know how good Barkley is? He runs, catches, returns kicks and can pass pro. He's a better runner in pro system playing closer to the line of scrimmage he did his freshman year compared to his last two years. Someone cited he had 38 rush yards vs OSU this past year, but he scored two TDs, one a kickoff for TD and you are forgetting what he opens up for pass game getting all of the focus and his pass pro is off the charts. As a freshman he ran for 200 yards in a pro system at OSU with a shitty o line. A++++ character....Plus its NY, his jersey sales will fly off the chain.
The just wait on RB theory is overplayed. Kareem Hunt is an outlier and Zeke lead the league in rushing 2 years ago and would have again if not for his suspension. Its ok to take a big time back early if he is an elite talent. Rams don't sniff playoffs without Gurley and I'd bet Jags don't score enough to make it far in playoffs last year with out Leon Fournette. Some QBs who didn't go top 10 off top of my head who were or are pretty damn good include Brady, Rodgers, Marino, Dak, Deshaun Watson, Russ Wilson, Kurt Warner, Flacco, Ben, Brees and the list goes on and on.
To think you MUST take a qb top 5 to have a chance is falling on your sword. I would like to see the bust rate of top 5 or 10 QBs who were successful vs being not. Outside of Trent Richardson the backs seem to be hitting like Faulk, Peterson and more recnently Zeke Fournette and Gurley....many believe Barkley is better than all of them.
My point about Barkley is not about whether his talent is necessarily there, it is that the value of the #2 pick in the draft is monumental and to waste it on a RB is absolutely stupid IMO.
And regarding Barkley's greatness at PSU, here is my response.
Is he going to be returning kicks in the NFL? The most idiotic and unimportant stat in evaluating college talent is "all purpose yards" JFC, that is ridiculous. Name me one stud RB returning kicks right now. Reggie Bush did it for a while, but I'll get to him in a minute. I think he is ENORMOUSLY overrrated and is now going to a team with no entire right side of the offensive line.
If this guy who was basically awarded the Heisman in September was so overwhelming, why exactly did he have only 5 100-yard rushing games last year (also 1 100-yard receiving game). I'm not buying because his return yards were so draining that he couldn't perform as a #1 RB vs. the likes of Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland, Rutgers and Pittsburgh.
But let's look at some other guys who were top 5 NFL RB picks...here is the list going back to 2000:
2017 - Jagauars - Fournette (undecided, but a good rookie year)
2016 - Cowboys - Zeke (and a HUGE part of this goes that stud Dallas O Line...don't forget Murray won the 14 Rushing title behind them like Zeke won his 16 title)
2012 - Browns - Trent Richardson (need I say more)
2008 - Raiders - Darren McFadden (another do-everything back)
2006 - Saints - Reggie Bush (most similar prototype to Barkley and had an insanely better college career)
2005 - Dolphins - Ronnie Brown
2005 - Bears - Cedric Benson
2005 - Bucs - Cadillac Williams
2001 - Chargers - Tomlinson (legit HOF'er)
2000 - Ravens - Jamal Lewis (probable HOF'er)
Here is a link to the NFL Draft Value chart
http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php
Take a look at how valuable that #2 pick is and what teams need to give up in order to get there. And this morning on the radio, Gettleman was quoted as saying there wasn't any consideration to moving out of the #2 pick.
I think the kid is hugely overrated and now will be playing with a 37-year-old QB, no right side of an O-Line and a prima-donna WR playing under a new offensive system. Bad, bad fit.
And regarding the Jets pick, I've been on here before and saying "Anyone but Baker". I would have been fine with Darnold or Rosen. But Baker at 1 is another colossal fuck-up IMO, but the Browns gonna Browns.