NFC Championship: Buccaneers vs. Packers Discussion Thread

I know you said you thought sone jitters or whatever were involved in the Washington game but I can’t imagine it bodes well they let 2 wrs and the tight end get off pretty good vs them. Certainly makes me like packers chances of exceeding that. I’m pretty confident Valdez-scantling or Lazard gets them on a deep shot or 2, I lean to Valdez-scantling this week as being the guy who could make them pay over the top for the blitzes, targeting him in several dfs lineups along with adams of course, with some tonyan sprinkled in as well. I’m using kelce as a flex in all my lineups then used either tonyan or brate as my te. I do like brate, little bit little Scotty Miller, and maybe fornette as I assume brady will be going to those guys underneath quite a bit as I don’t think packers secondary will let evans or Godwin get off much and we know how Brady loves those type of possession guys so he can get ball out his hands quick!
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
TB just played the #2 and #3 pass defenses. GB is 15
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can’t argue the numbers but I’d take packers pass defense right now over Washington’s all day every day and it not even close imo. Talking bout schedules washigton defensive numbers were absolutely boosted by playing the nfc least imo. Recall seeing a breakdown of skins while back and their numbers against the East compared to other teams they played were glaring.
 
Packers run d not so much but I don’t think it even arguable packers have a better secondary than Washington’s, and honestly when they clicking I don’t think the pass rush is that much worse.
 
dg84 said:
Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but teams attempting to win their 3rd straight road game in the playoffs are 4-13 SU all-time.
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dont recall seeing it here but I was aware the numbers in those spots were not good for road team. Pretty strong number that I think absolutely more relevant than lot of trends.
 
packers one the few teams I’ve kept a pretty solid home field edge for this season even without fans as I think the grass at lambeau gives them a edge, they allowing decent number of fans this week I believe, so this line basically says they even on a neutral? I don’t think they are.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
TB just played the #2 and #3 pass defenses. GB is 15

TB is #5

Vea has been out since 10/8
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Are these rankings DVOA? Just wondering cause those rankings have become hard to access now for some reason. DVOA is a great metric. It accounts, among other important things, for opponent quality.
 
2daBank said:
I know you said you thought sone jitters or whatever were involved in the Washington game but I can’t imagine it bodes well they let 2 wrs and the tight end get off pretty good vs them. Certainly makes me like packers chances of exceeding that. I’m pretty confident Valdez-scantling or Lazard gets them on a deep shot or 2, I lean to Valdez-scantling this week as being the guy who could make them pay over the top for the blitzes, targeting him in several dfs lineups along with adams of course, with some tonyan sprinkled in as well. I’m using kelce as a flex in all my lineups then used either tonyan or brate as my te. I do like brate, little bit little Scotty Miller, and maybe fornette as I assume brady will be going to those guys underneath quite a bit as I don’t think packers secondary will let evans or Godwin get off much and we know how Brady loves those type of possession guys so he can get ball out his hands quick!
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I‘ve seen you make the claim that x or y quarterback did well because he was relatively new and not a lot of film was out on him yet. Why not make this claim also for Heinicke?
 
detroit187 said:
The way to attack GB is through the middle. The way to attack TB is on the permitter.
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But GB likes the inside run. Curious to see if they stick with that, or plan more outside runs. Also curious how much Vea is in there, and if effective off long layoff.
 
dg84 said:
Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but teams attempting to win their 3rd straight road game in the playoffs are 4-13 SU all-time.
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Oakland Raiders. 1980-81 Season
Won @
Houston (1)
Cleveland (2)
SD (3)
Won SB VS Eagles.

Sorry. I Just Remember It Well... Hahaha
:shake:
 
2daBank said:
packers one the few teams I’ve kept a pretty solid home field edge for this season even without fans as I think the grass at lambeau gives them a edge, they allowing decent number of fans this week I believe, so this line basically says they even on a neutral? I don’t think they are.
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im on the under only. AB is out and that makes a difference to me. Packers probably win and cover. Tampa was horrible last season and didnt add enough to get past this GB team maybe brown could have had a big game to make this a better game but now this limits Bradys weapons. With Tampas mediocre run game we'll see if Tampa can get the job done. In the superbowls most recent history there have been little if any 3 seed or higher in the SB, I toght Tampa might had a chance to change this but I am not a buyer here anymore.
 
Montana kiosk took GB to o27.5/-145 with under +105, I went under again.

Played u52/+100

Yesterday kiosk gave me opp at +6/-145 so I parlayed with a UFC winner.

GL everyone. Give me a good game. That's all I ask.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Montana kiosk took GB to o27.5/-145 with under +105, I went under again.

Played u52/+100

Yesterday kiosk gave me opp at +6/-145 so I parlayed with a UFC winner.

GL everyone. Give me a good game. That's all I ask.
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GL johny!

I hear NY wants to do their own books and mirror this kiosk thing.

How does that work? Where are these things located?1
 
I will say this and I know it sounds ironic.

Aaron Rodgers is not a cold weather QB.

He's always looked miserable to me in the cold. Keeps his hands in his warmers longer than most, etc.

They made it to the SB the one year playing on the road.
 
spottie2935 said:
im on the under only. AB is out and that makes a difference to me. Packers probably win and cover. Tampa was horrible last season and didnt add enough to get past this GB team maybe brown could have had a big game to make this a better game but now this limits Bradys weapons. With Tampas mediocre run game we'll see if Tampa can get the job done. In the superbowls most recent history there have been little if any 3 seed or higher in the SB, I toght Tampa might had a chance to change this but I am not a buyer here anymore.
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i agree AB is a big deal, not real sure how healthy evens is either? i mean i know he good to play but if he still nicked up the cold is gonna make everything leg related tighter during game. bucs just need another year with all these pieces and how to best run the offense,, as of now im still not sure how dedicated to the run game? i think they could be a good run team but dont think it a run game ya can trust currently and against a pettine defense who prefers playing nickle and dime majority of the time i think it absolutely be in teams best interest to have 2 te, 2 wr sets and pound it at them, just not sure tampa is capable of doing that and sticking with it.. jones another one that obviously gonna play but dealing with a bunch of injuries the cold not gonna help, believe he got dinged up again during the saints game last week. i expect bucs passing game is gonna feature a lot of brate, miller, and one the backs on the short stuff, i like packers chances to be able to cover the big name wrs while getting pressure on longer developing routes..
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I‘ve seen you make the claim that x or y quarterback did well because he was relatively new and not a lot of film was out on him yet. Why not make this claim also for Heinicke?
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i dunno,, either im lazy, it didnt suite my argument, lol (i dont think that it as i really try to find the good and bad for both sides), most likely cause i think i almost always talk about limited film on a player when it a mobile qb who not only presents a different set of problems but teams often run completely different plays/offenses for those kind of guys. namely with a guy like Hurts all a sudden the zone read and wrinkles off that became much more prevalent.. ultimately it not like what washington was able to do offensively a very big part of my argument or had anything to do with liking packers, i was just running out of things to point out after writing so much on this game during the week! and we kept getting on the competition level argument, nothing more to it but that certainly a fair point you bring up..
 
Inspekdah said:
I will say this and I know it sounds ironic.

Aaron Rodgers is not a cold weather QB.

He's always looked miserable to me in the cold. Keeps his hands in his warmers longer than most, etc.

They made it to the SB the one year playing on the road.
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True, but that run included a wild card game at Philly & a championship game at Chicago.
 
Inspekdah said:
GL johny!

I hear NY wants to do their own books and mirror this kiosk thing.

How does that work? Where are these things located?1
Click to expand...

Thanks spek. GL today

I will hit you up later about kiosks. The odds mostly blow but is convenient if you can pick winners. Kiosk 1.0 had so many bugs it stressed me out. The new ones have no problems
 
Antoine Winfield out today. Big.

James Palmer


1h

There was early optimism, but the lengthy on field workout showed Antoine Winfield (ankle) won’t be able to go today sources tell me. He’s out.
 
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2daBank said:
i agree AB is a big deal, not real sure how healthy evens is either? i mean i know he good to play but if he still nicked up the cold is gonna make everything leg related tighter during game. bucs just need another year with all these pieces and how to best run the offense,, as of now im still not sure how dedicated to the run game? i think they could be a good run team but dont think it a run game ya can trust currently and against a pettine defense who prefers playing nickle and dime majority of the time i think it absolutely be in teams best interest to have 2 te, 2 wr sets and pound it at them, just not sure tampa is capable of doing that and sticking with it.. jones another one that obviously gonna play but dealing with a bunch of injuries the cold not gonna help, believe he got dinged up again during the saints game last week. i expect bucs passing game is gonna feature a lot of brate, miller, and one the backs on the short stuff, i like packers chances to be able to cover the big name wrs while getting pressure on longer developing routes..
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the need another year and better players in certain key positions. Like I said AB could have had a huge game and that alone could have made a huge impact on this game. Maybe one of the Tampa play makers might have a huge game but I am just sitting out. Under only and hope for the best.
 
spottie2935 said:
the need another year and better players in certain key positions. Like I said AB could have had a huge game and that alone could have made a huge impact on this game. Maybe one of the Tampa play makers might have a huge game but I am just sitting out. Under only and hope for the best.
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i had a pretty strong feeling after seeing AB leave last week even if he played in this one he wasnt gonna be close to his most effective self.. i really dont think they need much in the way of adding players, if jones healthy i think him and fornette make a good enough backfield, not real sure he all that healthy today either. strongly believe as long brady continues to defy the age gods this team with a entire offseason and normal camp be good enough to be right back here next year with a better chance to go to the SB.
 
2daBank said:
i had a pretty strong feeling after seeing AB leave last week even if he played in this one he wasnt gonna be close to his most effective self.. i really dont think they need much in the way of adding players, if jones healthy i think him and fornette make a good enough backfield, not real sure he all that healthy today either. strongly believe as long brady continues to defy the age gods this team with a entire offseason and normal camp be good enough to be right back here next year with a better chance to go to the SB.
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if they elevated their pass rush and running game tampa wount be a 5 seed and GB might be road dogs
 
KJ said:
Not sure there, have a feeling NO makes a splash move to replace the noodle
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they in cap hell, I think they sold away their future a little trying to make a run with noodle. I don’t understand how cap works enough to know but when I hear they 90 mil over amd it gonna drop kinda make me assume they won’t have lot of room to do anything like that?
 
2daBank said:
they in cap hell, I think they sold away their future a little trying to make a run with noodle. I don’t understand how cap works enough to know but when I hear they 90 mil over amd it gonna drop kinda make me assume they won’t have lot of room to do anything like that?
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Curious how much they gain by Brees retiring and you know there will be cuts, probably move a piece in trade

Not familiar with their cap situation
 
KJ said:
Curious how much they gain by Brees retiring and you know there will be cuts, probably move a piece in trade

Not familiar with their cap situation
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yea I’m clueless how it all works, I just have heard they more over the cap than anyone. I thought this was end of brees deal so assumed they were 90 mil over without him, but again they have way smarter ppl than me who manipulate and look like flat out cheat the damn thing I have no understanding of.
 
This ESPN win probability model is built by monkeees.

According to ESPN's Win Probability model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning by going for it on fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.
 
Frank Costanza said:
(Probably) not a TD if he runs w/ 2 DBs there.

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yea I’m not sure if he scores. Initial reaction was yes, then after watching few more times I’m not sure, I think if he heads to pylon it be close, depends whether his wrs notice and turn to block. Either way I think he has to take off there, if nothing else he gets down to about the 2 yard line and they most likely go for it on 4th instead that asinine decision to take a meaningless fg!!
 
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