NFC Championship: Buccaneers vs. Packers Discussion Thread

Johnnyonthespot said:
I love Rodgers as much as anyone, but glance at their schedule, they beat hardly anybody that good and got crushed by tampa. I dont know how good GB really is
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its fair but I think we can make reasonable assumptions. Not to mention the fact packers only good team tampa beat and some guy I never heard of on a crappy Washington offense moved up and down field on that vaunted d. I think might have to get used to this next few years, packers bout to reel off bunch of nfc champ or SB trips, the nfc north besides them startling to resemble the afc East during Brady’s run and all the best young qbs and better teams reside in the afc now. Don’t think it a coincidence Brady choose the nfc, if he can continue defying the aging process I think these the best 2 teams for next few years in nfc. Maybe only niners finding a way to get a qb breaks that up or Brady finally hitting the wall that has to come at some point!
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I love Rodgers as much as anyone, but glance at their schedule, they beat hardly anybody that good and got crushed by tampa. I dont know how good GB really is
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Win at NO and obv destruction of TEN was impressive but the complete dismantling of that SF defense on the road, even though they were down a bunch on defense, was the most impressive game for me.
 
2daBank said:
its fair but I think we can make reasonable assumptions. Not to mention the fact packers only good team tampa beat and some guy I never heard of on a crappy Washington offense moved up and down field on that vaunted d. I think might have to get used to this next few years, packers bout to reel off bunch of nfc champ or SB trips, the nfc north besides them startling to resemble the afc East during Brady’s run and all the best young qbs and better teams reside in the afc now. Don’t think it a coincidence Brady choose the nfc, if he can continue defying the aging process I think these the best 2 teams for next few years in nfc. Maybe only niners finding a way to get a qb breaks that up or Brady finally hitting the wall that has to come at some point!
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I hear ya bigger picture.

Heincke is no rookie, and was prolific passer at OD. He played well. TB still won. That was a nervy game. They should be looser here, only dudes that wont be loose will be TB dbs, they will be a lil scared.

Devine White is an X factor.
 
KJ said:
Win at NO and obv destruction of TEN was impressive but the complete dismantling of that SF defense on the road, even though they were down a bunch on defense, was the most impressive game for me.
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i dunno any one game matters to me, I’m mostly of the belief if you go thru a nfl schedule, win the one seed, and have best point differential along the way, while just looking good to me with scheme and talent I believe you have proven yourself to be very good. Plus we know Rodgers is awesome, adams is awesome, they have a strong Oline and backs (even without left tackle), and have at least a few good pass rushers and solid secondary. I’m of the opinion lafluer is right there with Mcvey and Shanny as a creative offensive guy but I dunno if everyone does? I think we know they good and really good at worst, they were here last year and yea got physically whipped but I wish niners woulda been healthy this year cause they have shown me in other games I believe they have fixed that issue.

The loss to vikings was a bigger issue to me than the Bucs loss, but that was nov 1st, no Jones, no Lazard, scantling was banged up I believe and it a div opponent. I’m over it now cause I think the way they didn’t let titans control them w run game kinda made me feel better bout cook doing it once.
Johnnyonthespot said:
I hear ya bigger picture.

Heincke is no rookie, and was prolific passer at OD. He played well. TB still won. That was a nervy game. They should be looser here, only dudes that wont be loose will be TB dbs, they will be a lil scared.

Devine White is an X factor.
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I don’t really think at this point in a nfl season it does much good to try and pick apart how good wins were so that fair too. You get to this point in a nfl year with home field or in this game, tops in all kind of good categories, with a scheme and players we know good it makes no sense to me to question if they good based off schedule, of course they are. We know all 4 these teams good, I think kc performances this year could cause argument but we know they good even tho they didn’t cover a spread for 2 freaking months and counting!
 
2daBank said:
I just don’t see how that week 6 game favors Bucs defense in this game, especially early against the team we know the best early? That blowhard skip Bayless who does nothing but cream about Brady and “Tompa Bay” won’t shut up bout how Bowles blitzing effecting Rodgers last time and it baffles me he think it a good thing he “knows” Bowles coming at him again and early!! You gotta be shitting me!! Please god let Bowles play that same blitzing defense early on and let me watch lafluer and Arron have all the answers cause it exactly what they preparing to beat, amd they proven to be the best in that preparation!! I’m banking on the thing ppl like about Tampa defense happening which feels pretty likely, or at least what Bucs backers want to see. We just couldn’t disagree more on what gonna happen if they play that same defense!!

I honestly think it more likely packers up big late than lose 1st half, I’m not as confident they win and cover but I certainly can see a scenario where they do get out and their pass rush the ones feasting in 2nd half, but Brady scares me late, not early tho! We know Brady, early in these games he wants to run the ball and feel his way into the game! We seen it a dozen plus times in his career!! I’m shocked you think it sounds contrarian but makes me love it even more, which always scares me! lol
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This game sucks to be honest. Sure I like Tampa but only because its the playoffs. If it was the regular season I sure I could find 3 to 5 spots that I would bet on before I got to this game. My big wagering is over until next week, but If not the 5 seeded Bucs then I will probably look at the total in the SB. This is not a game I am excited for betting wise.
 
spottie2935 said:
This game sucks to be honest. Sure I like Tampa but only because its the playoffs. If it was the regular season I sure I could find 3 to 5 spots that I would bet on before I got to this game. My big wagering is over until next week, but If not the 5 seeded Bucs then I will probably look at the total in the SB. This is not a game I am excited for betting wise.
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somehow I’ve gotten more excited than maybe I should be but only 1st half cause I do think I have a strong enough case, full game I agree. Both teams good, Tom the goat and has weapons, Rodgers not real far behind him other than resume and that cause Tom had hoody and Rodgers had a outdated moron till last year. There not a ton of difference, we all know why we like one or the other, I think packers being in year 2 is a advantage cause as I’ve said I think Brady and Bucs be better next year if he continues holding up. We might see this game 2 years in a row. Nfc not very deep.
 
I could make a case for the packers schedule to be very soft as well. Does that matter here, maybe not. I want to see if the packers play a team with an offense and defense, so far this season that has not happened in my opinion. Maybe the loss early to the bucs but again this game is vanilla from a betting perspective.
 
spottie2935 said:
I could make a case for the packers schedule to be very soft as well. Does that matter here, maybe not. I want to see if the packers play a team with an offense and defense, so far this season that has not happened in my opinion. Maybe the loss early to the bucs but again this game is vanilla from a betting perspective.
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understand that, I was trying to make the point schedule means nothing to me at this point for any these teams, we know these the best 4 teams this year and you right it makes it pretty tough.
 
spottie2935 said:
I hope unders this week. The SB I love over!!! I want low scoring games for a well balanced total for the SB
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totally agree w that, there no chance I’d bet the nfc under but not like I’m pounding over either. im playing packers 1st half, maybe 1st qrtr, prob a parlay with over but it ain’t gonna break me.

im not sure if both games were 10-3 this weekend (which we know ain’t happening) still think no matter the SB matchup it gotta be 56 doesn’t it? Assuming everyone’s weapons a go.
 
packers played 3 "quality " playoff team all on the road : INDY loss Tampa loss and New Orl win. Now at home. GB at home pretty much play dog shit teams or teams with only 1 strong side of the ball. Example Tennessee. Strong running game but poor D they blew them away. Loss to the Vikings but throw that game away one bad game doesnt matter much in a long season.
 
spottie2935 said:
packers played 3 "quality " playoff team all on the road : INDY loss Tampa loss and New Orl win. Now at home. GB at home pretty much play dog shit teams or teams with only 1 strong side of the ball. Example Tennessee. Strong running game but poor D they blew them away. Loss to the Vikings but throw that game away one bad game doesnt matter much in a long season.
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they were smoking colts at half right?
 
spottie2935 said:
28-14
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that game was so strange cause they got out like they usually do but they only ran the ball 15x w backs (Rodgers had few runs I guess),, pack have averaged 32 attempts all year and that game was pretty typical early for them. Was Indy run d so good 15 rushes and with a lead they were discouraged? I actually gave them credit for the Indy game cause how they looked but I don’t understand why they wouldn’t have given those backs way more touches?
 
2daBank said:
that game was so strange cause they got out like they usually do but they only ran the ball 15x w backs (Rodgers had few runs I guess),, pack have averaged 32 attempts all year and that game was pretty typical early for them. Was Indy run d so good 15 rushes and with a lead they were discouraged? I actually gave them credit for the Indy game cause how they looked but I don’t understand why they wouldn’t have given those backs way more touches?
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Kind of the same thing we are faced with this week right. Which team has their head on straight?
 
I wrote off the second half as strange but it isn’t untypical of packers at all. Huge point differential in 1st half, more than 8 of the 9 a game they win by, and next to none in 2nd. That why I like 1st half and why I say I think Tampa in game might have some great numbers.
 
2daBank said:
I wrote off the second half as strange but it isn’t untypical of packers at all. Huge point differential in 1st half, more than 8 of the 9 a game they win by, and next to none in 2nd. That why I like 1st half and why I say I think Tampa in game might have some great numbers.
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You might be right but do you think this is the ultimate bet? or just your best chance to win a toss up close matchup?
 
The superbowl provides me more data that i feel safer with then this game. This to me is just taking the 5 seed with a great QB and WR's but they gotta play.
 
Feb 7 Sun 2021

4:30 PM
1101Tampa Bay Buccaneerspk
-110		O 54½
-110
1102Buffalo Billspk
-110		U 54½
-110
4:30 PM
1103Tampa Bay Buccaneers+3
-120		O 55½
-105
1104Kansas City Chiefs-3
+100		U 55½
-115
4:30 PM
1105Green Bay Packers-2
-115		O 54½
-110
1106Buffalo Bills+2
-105		U 54½
-110
4:30 PM
1107Green Bay Packers+2
-110		O 55½
-110
1108Kansas City Chiefs-2
-110		U 55½
-110
 
the lines are tight because they know the Chiefs are not the dynasty. I would argue that the playoff game last year for the Chiefs were pretty easy. Texans Titans and 49ers. All those had great seasons in 2019 but overall not the best teams year over year
 
spottie2935 said:
the lines are tight because they know the Chiefs are not the dynasty. I would argue that the playoff game last year for the Chiefs were pretty easy. Texans Titans and 49ers. All those had great seasons in 2019 but overall not the best teams year over year
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This season same thing Browns and Bills. but they going to face a balanced team in the Super bowl if they make it
 
spottie2935 said:
You might be right but do you think this is the ultimate bet? or just your best chance to win a toss up close matchup?
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I think packers 1st half is better than a toss up. Would I even have noticed it in the reg season? Most likely not cause I’m obviously searching way more here and usually don’t spend enough time on nfl to even look at. Do I think it the ultimate bet? I dunno, prob not but my history is such that im often better off tossing a play I like too much cause I’m prob missing something, especially in nfl! I think it by far the best play here right now but I do think if that comes to fruition there might be way more value on Tampa in game then cause I assume that numbers won’t reflect what we know to be true about packers amd about Brady being the best 4th qrtr big game player ever.
 
spottie2935 said:
packers played 3 "quality " playoff team all on the road : INDY loss Tampa loss and New Orl win. Now at home. GB at home pretty much play dog shit teams or teams with only 1 strong side of the ball. Example Tennessee. Strong running game but poor D they blew them away. Loss to the Vikings but throw that game away one bad game doesnt matter much in a long season.
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Taysom Hill fumbled in GB territory in 4th and screwed it all up.

www.espn.com

Packers 37-30 Saints (Sep 27, 2020) Play-by-Play - ESPN

Play-by-play action for the Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL game from September 27, 2020 on ESPN.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

The TEN win at home was good spot, it was outlier and I throw it out, haha
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Taysom Hill fumbled in GB territory in 4th and screwed it all up.

www.espn.com

Packers 37-30 Saints (Sep 27, 2020) Play-by-Play - ESPN

Play-by-play action for the Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints NFL game from September 27, 2020 on ESPN.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

The TEN win at home was good spot, it was outlier and I throw it out, haha
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lol. I didn’t give them much credit for saints or even look at recap cause brees wasn’t playing and who cares bout dome w no fans? Prob gave them more for titans but ultimately I don’t think it matters much who ya play after 16 and a playoff game you gotta be a certain amount of good and I don’t think we look at any the 4 as flukes.
 
cubsker said:
i'll point out that the pack were without several starters for that Vikings loss.
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yea I did as well, plus it a div game. Pats tended to lose one to a garbage afc East team every year. Doesn’t mean much to me other than I got scared anytime a team controlled packers on the ground but as I’ve said more than once I think they have shown pretty capable vs several hot running backs the last month.
 
2daBank said:
lol. I didn’t give them much credit for saints or even look at recap cause brees wasn’t playing and who cares bout dome w no fans? Prob gave them more for titans but ultimately I don’t think it matters much who ya play after 16 and a playoff game you gotta be a certain amount of good and I don’t think we look at any the 4 as flukes.
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You have 2 of the best qbs of all time. Rodgers MVP and more confident looking than TB12. Arians is an aggressive beast and I back him more than Lafleur. How do the interior lines matchup? Can Rodgers be pressured? I see Devin White pissing him off.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
You have 2 of the best qbs of all time. Rodgers MVP and more confident looking than TB12. Arians is an aggressive beast and I back him more than Lafleur. How do the interior lines matchup? Can Rodgers be pressured? I see Devin White pissing him off.
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so we obviously disagree on coaches but I don’t think any of us pointing to some huge coaching edge either way as a reason for any play, right? Lafluer way too soon to even have a concrete overall opinion on imo, could def turn out I been too high on him. What I do think is accurate for whatever reason he unquestionably one the better script designers for his 1st 15-20 plays against a given defense which obviously plays big into liking 1st half. Conversely I think it very fair to question his in game play calls/adjustments as the game gets deeper. I don’t think he a poor decision maker on being conservative or risky, or I don’t recall ever being offended by his decisions like tomlin (and many others) do to me when they punt from inside opponents territory in a 5 yards or less and trailing situation!! I don’t hate Arians, he not as buttoned up as I prefer, dunno why you can’t be “no risky no biscy” and still demand your team plays clean?!? But whatever, again just personal preference, like lafluer I can’t point to any particular hugely offensive to my senses decisions about going or kicking late in games so don’t think we have a situation either side could lean on hoping for terrible decisions late. That my Very long way of saying pick your poison there, dont think comes down to a coaching mismatch, but I do think laflour has a strength that plays nicely into my bet, lol.

Part 2 much more relevant imo, I can’t say no Tampa can’t get pressure cause Bucs did a great job confusing pack w scheme and blitzes to get matchups they wanted and won them in week 6, left tackle went out that game as well but now he gone for year anyways, think the interior line played their worst game leaving holes bucs got thru free and getting beat one on one. Overall I think even without their all pro left tackle packers line is still incredibly strong, with him they as good as anyone, love the center who hugely important to get the protections figured out up front, one guard a all pro and another is pretty good imo. None them played well week 6 but I’d expect they be way more prepared for the blitzing this time. I certainly don’t think this group a weakness by any stretch plus I’d expect packers just have a better overall plan to protect and attack the pressure.
 
KJ said:
Totals for all four SB matchups opened 57, 57.5, 58, 58.5...obviously been bet down but those are insane. Sign of the times.
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I think after a dreadful 10-3 Patriots win 2 years ago and last seasons under cashing as well. I’m just riding a hunch that there is going to be fireworks. As it looks all the Qb’s left can make this happen. Certainly not a number I am in love with but maybe it’s balanced or slightly unbalanced action to the under and the number decreases.
 
I'd like 4, but that wont happen unless I pay up or wait in game. I'm going to make bets on Bucs ats and prolly GB tt under. I havent made them yet, but unless I get hit upside the head with something, that's how I am going to roll. Rodgers been smiling waaaaay too much. ML too. Let's go.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I can't get the KC/TB game out of my head. If anyone can shred a secondary it's Rodgers. I think it all comes down to the trenches, whichever team can run more efficiently and get qb pressure will probably win.
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That game was a joke. If they didn't go into the "KC 2nd half shell" they drop about 47. Other than the 1st possession at no point did Tampa have a chance to tie or take the lead. At home. With every weapon on the field.
 
Like I said earlier, I made my play and heavy (by my standards). People seem pretty entrenched on their sides on this one and I am one of them. There's literally no stat you could give me that would have me on Tampa. Best of luck to everyone this weekend.
 
spottie2935 said:
I think after a dreadful 10-3 Patriots win 2 years ago and last seasons under cashing as well. I’m just riding a hunch that there is going to be fireworks. As it looks all the Qb’s left can make this happen. Certainly not a number I am in love with but maybe it’s balanced or slightly unbalanced action to the under and the number decreases.
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think ya gotta assume the over gonna be hugely popular no matter where they put it with all these potential great matchups. Not that some sharp money won’t bring it down a tick but can’t imagine it be much. I feel like a very large percentage of SB’s start pretty slow scoring wise in the 1st qrtr. Obviously risking getting a even worse number if teams come out smoking but I think that another thing that may present more value live in game betting. Actually even if they have a hot scoring start would live total get that much higher? That huge number implies lots of scoring from the jump. I agree it be very tough to not like over regardless the matchup but especially if you correct and Tampa in that game id almost for sure wait and look to play it live considering Brady slow start history.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I'd like 4, but that wont happen unless I pay up or wait in game. I'm going to make bets on Bucs ats and prolly GB tt under. I havent made them yet, but unless I get hit upside the head with something, that's how I am going to roll. Rodgers been smiling waaaaay too much. ML too. Let's go.
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he smiling cause he knows he fixing to carve them up!!
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
He has lived a mostly charmed life. I need pressure, he needs to get hit, and a break or two. . .
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I think only way Tampa d gives them problems is if Suh is a beast, which is certainly possible. I might join ya’ll in game if the early going goes the way I hope and expect anx im confident gonna cash 1st half, lol.
 
2daBank said:
I think only way Tampa d gives them problems is if Suh is a beast, which is certainly possible. I might join ya’ll in game if the early going goes the way I hope and expect anx im confident gonna cash 1st half, lol.
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I think Devin White will be best defensive player on field and will open even more eyeballs. He is a killer. The TB defense is peaking.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
I think Devin White will be best defensive player on field and will open even more eyeballs. The TB defense is peaking.
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he is a beast but in all fairness you could say the exact same thing about the packers d peaking. Those 2 guys they brought in last year wernt getting the same kind of pressure they did last year until recently. I know one them smiths lead the league in pressures last year and looks to be getting back to that form. They have another kid that was a fairly high draft pick few years back that never did much who has been a totally different guy all a sudden last 2-3 games, can’t think of his name for the life of me tho? I really hope there some snow showers as I think lambeau notorious for teams struggling with footing and that would really be problematic for Tampa’s d imo.
 
2daBank said:
he is a beast but in all fairness you could say the exact same thing about the packers d peaking. Those 2 guys they brought in last year wernt getting the same kind of pressure they did last year until recently. I know one them smiths lead the league in pressures last year and looks to be getting back to that form. They have another kid that was a fairly high draft pick few years back that never did much who has been a totally different guy all a sudden last 2-3 games, can’t think of his name for the life of me tho? I really hope there some snow showers as I think lambeau notorious for teams struggling with footing and that would really be problematic for Tampa’s d imo.
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I completely agree!

I'm playing under now too bro. This game will be a real football game. No mismatch. Defenses will set tone is my hope. I like Brady as dog. Cant wait
 
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