NFC Championship: Buccaneers vs. Packers Discussion Thread

Johnnyonthespot said:
I completely agree!

I'm playing under now too bro. This game will be a real football game. No mismatch. Defenses will set tone is my hope.
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ugh, while we both agree with the defenses I still can’t bring myself to go there or even get off the over, it just be a parlay piece for me tho, another thing I might look to play more in game or at half if game plays out how I been preaching I think it go early, lol.
 
It's going to be 7-3 at the half or something and you will notice late steam on Bill under. That will be the signal to hit that over again.

Let's go
 
KJ said:
2h GB tt over if it plays out like that

Universe is saying time to pass it on. Puff. Puff. Pass.
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packers are gonna come strong and start fast like they always do! Im way more worried bout the 2nd half but I do think if packers get the lead Brady might be the one taking sacks! God I’m dying for mahomes vs Rodgers! I could live with bills vs packers just cause I think packers for sure win that game which is what I want! I’ve all a sudden become a huge Rodgers fan again, pretty sure it was just mike McCarthy I didn’t like, poor Dak, he should take any contract north of 100 mil and 30 a season he can get right now before he has to play a entire year in that outdated bums system.
 
2daBank said:
packers are gonna come strong and start fast like they always do! Im way more worried bout the 2nd half but I do think if packers get the lead Brady might be the one taking sacks! God I’m dying for mahomes vs Rodgers! I could live with bills vs packers just cause I think packers for sure win that game which is what I want! I’ve all a sudden become a huge Rodgers fan again, pretty sure it was just mike McCarthy I didn’t like, poor Dak, he should take any contract north of 100 mil and 30 a season he can get right now before he has to play a entire year in that outdated bums system.
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I know you're on 1h Pack

I like 2h Pack IF it's close at HT. Sorry, no Brady/Arians/whatever are going to persuade me against ARod in Jan at Lambeau in the clutch. This seems to get a ton of overthinking.
 
KJ said:
I know you're on 1h Pack

I like 2h Pack IF it's close at HT. Sorry, no Brady/Arians/whatever are going to persuade me against ARod in Jan at Lambeau in the clutch. This seems to get a ton of overthinking.
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I think packers gonna win as well. Just seems silly not to take them in the 1st where they been the strongest team by a mile this season, just the cherry on top that Brady is pretty notorious for starting slow in these type games. I could absolutely see a scenario where if I’m right bout 1st half the Bucs forced into throwing a lot and packers pass rush kicks Brady’s ass! I’m not totally confident in that but I could def see it!
 
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2daBank said:
I think packers gonna win as well. Just seems silly not to take them in the 1st where they been the strongest team by a mile this season, just the cherry on top that Brady is pretty notorious for starting slow in these type games. I could absolutely see a scenario where if I’m right bout 1st half the Bucs forced into throwing a lot and packers pass rush kicks Brady’s ass! I’m not totally confident in that but I could def see it!
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I simply don't think Tampa are that good and will probably play some alt lines

Not sure where Tampa gets stops although Bowles is a great play caller but this is the wrong QB to blitz like mad imo
 
Basically I liked packers and have for some time, if I didn’t have the 1st half option I’d be playing them full game also. Just scares me way more having to lay that fg and the hook for game even tho I think they win by a td or more.
 
KJ said:
I simply don't think Tampa are that good and will probably play some alt lines

Not sure where Tampa gets stops although Bowles is a great play caller but this is the wrong QB to blitz like mad imo
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lol: crazy I was just posting that deep down I don’t even expect this to be all that close, great minds and all!

someone was trying to tell me today they thought Bowles might play back and try to force long drives this game but I don’t see it, really not in his nature and I agree packers will slice them up if they bring the kind of pressure they did the 1st time. The only reason I can’t totally dismiss that theory is for some mind boggling reason he did lay back in zones against the saints and let brees carve them up in that Sunday night disaster. That freaking baffles me still!! That said we saw what packers do to a excellent defense who plays back last week, they methodically amd surgically pick you apart until you come up then Rodgers rips you over the top, something I think they do in reverse this week. I think they take shots early to get Tampa back then proceed to pick them apart.

I know everyone wants to point out who packers have played or havnt but I just dunno how you watch that offense and think there a weakness? I sure don’t see it. I will concede it puzzles me they often fall off quite a bit in second half, guess at this point lafluer is way better scripting against a team than on the fly in game changes/play calling? His early plan coming into games is second to none tho!
 
2daBank said:
lol: crazy I was just posting that deep down I don’t even expect this to be all that close, great minds and all!

someone was trying to tell me today they thought Bowles might play back and try to force long drives this game but I don’t see it, really not in his nature and I agree packers will slice them up if they bring the kind of pressure they did the 1st time. The only reason I can’t totally dismiss that theory is for some mind boggling reason he did lay back in zones against the saints and let brees carve them up in that Sunday night disaster. That freaking baffles me still!! That said we saw what packers do to a excellent defense who plays back last week, they methodically amd surgically pick you apart until you come up then Rodgers rips you over the top, something I think they do in reverse this week. I think they take shots early to get Tampa back then proceed to pick them apart.

I know everyone wants to point out who packers have played or havnt but I just dunno how you watch that offense and think there a weakness? I sure don’t see it. I will concede it puzzles me they often fall off quite a bit in second half, guess at this point lafluer is way better scripting against a team than on the fly in game changes/play calling? His early plan coming into games is second to none tho!
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Tampa are a 5th place team in the NFC for a reason. GB are a 1st place team.

The overthink is insane. They're worse than Seattle. They're worse than NO. They might be a little better than Washington if they played 10 times. They're....ok.
 
KJ said:
Tampa are a 5th place team in the NFC for a reason. GB are a 1st place team.

The overthink is insane. They're worse than Seattle. They're worse than NO. They might be a little better than Washington if they played 10 times. They're....ok.
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not sure I agree with that. I think they only a 5th place team because the fact they had to learn on the fly. As I’ve mentioned a few times, I think if Brady continues to defy logic and his body holds up I’d expect them to be really scary next year with another season and a real off season together. Kinda like where packers are right now in lafluer system, imo that the biggest difference in this game, packers are absolutely tuned into the system while Bucs need another year to figure out what they are. AB not playing either and I think that is a real thing, figuring out where he fit in was a big part their second half success, let’s not fool ourselves and pretend that offense was even good last week! They didn’t score 1 point when they started a drive in their own territory!! I think it odd nobody brings this up?

if this was saints coming in I’d lay 7-8 with packers without any hesitation.
 
KJ said:
GB defensive TD might be in play
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the great Tom Brady did throw about 3 balls that absolutely shoulda been picked off last week, just more that wasn’t talked bout about that win. I heard someone I respect call the saints win one the more fraudulent results in playoffs they can remember! I have or had no respect for saints to begin with so I dunno bout that but hard to argue if brees doesn’t hand them the ball and saints don’t drop or fail to get feet down on Brady’s should been picks that the Bucs only score bout 6 points!
 
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2daBank said:
the great Tom Brady did throw about 3 balls that absolutely shoulda been picked off last week, just more that wasn’t talked bout about that win. I heard someone I respect call the saints win one the more fraudulent results in playoffs they can remember! I have or had no respect for saints to begin with so I dunno bout that but hard to argue if brees doesn’t hand them the ball and saints don’t drop or fail to get feet down on Brady’s should been picks that the Bucs only score bout 6 points!
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Don't think the team total under hasn't been harvesting this week in my head. I don't know where they match up well offensively anywhere.
 
KJ said:
Don't think the team total under hasn't been harvesting this week in my head. I don't know where they match up well offensively anywhere.
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i absolutely think AB being out a issue, little Scottie might make a play but he ain’t ab! Evans and Jones still nicked up, you think that their injuries will feel better in the cold? I know my issues with my knee the cold makes it worse!
 
2daBank said:
i absolutely think AB being out a issue, little Scottie might make a play but he ain’t ab! Evans and Jones still nicked up, you think that their injuries will feel better in the cold? I know my issues with my knee the cold makes it worse!
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Be surprised if they hit 17 but I'm also surprised how many people like Tampa

I think this is a mismatch, regular season revenge only makes it better
 
KJ said:
Be surprised if they hit 17 but I'm also surprised how many people like Tampa

I think this is a mismatch, regular season revenge only makes it better
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well that doesn’t bode well for my over lean. Lol. I think I’d be surprised if bucs didn’t hit 20, they did score 24 on the rams! I was just surprised when I looked and saw packers have held 5 of last 6 to less than 20!
 
2daBank said:
well that doesn’t bode well for my over lean. Lol. I think I’d be surprised if bucs didn’t hit 20, they did score 24 on the rams! I was just surprised when I looked and saw packers have held 5 of last 6 to less than 20!
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Yeah I don't like over here, kinda think if Bucs win it's Bowles d, not Arians o but that's a QB that should beat the blitzing
 
Are we totally convinced Bucs will stick with the run game and have success with it? I feel like they been very wishy washy! They need a offseason and more time together imo, just like packers did in this same spot Tampa is in this year. It was fine for packers when things worked out but they didn’t have the time together to have answers. I see a lot of Bucs in year one with Brady.
 
KJ said:
Yeah I don't like over here, kinda think if Bucs win it's Bowles d, not Arians o but that's a QB that should beat the blitzing
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I think it Tom’s offense more than arians most the time these days. Just more the reason I think they need another year. Brady will absolutely get beat up if they run Arians no risky no biscy offense much!
 
One concern i have is while Gronk looks like a crippled old man running routes he is still a very good blocker and I think the 2 te sets a little problematic for pettine who doesn’t like playing base defense, packers d way better in nickel or dime which why they been vulnerable to run games. As I’ve mentioned I do like that packers have seen a bunch of hot running games the last month and been pretty good limiting them.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
My options for value with Montana book are often limited. I like u27.5/-105. Going to hit it today but I kinda think line might get a little more juicy tomorrow.
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Love me some under 27.5 like they're begging for that 28 over money. I don't think it sniffs that.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
My options for value with Montana book are often limited. I like u27.5/-105. Going to hit it today but I kinda think line might get a little more juicy tomorrow.
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is that the packers team total I assume? Not even gonna mention how much I hate it! (Or did I? Lol). Lucky for you I’m wrong all the time! Lol
 
KJ said:
Oh shit Bucs tt is u23.5 -104

Usually wait for game day but just hit that shit like Greg Hardy
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where you think it be? Packers is 27.5, total is 51. Rest points gotta be Bucs. They basically always add up to the total, give or take a point.
 
KJ said:
I know you're on 1h Pack

I like 2h Pack IF it's close at HT. Sorry, no Brady/Arians/whatever are going to persuade me against ARod in Jan at Lambeau in the clutch. This seems to get a ton of overthinking.
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1000%
 
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Capaholic said:
That game was a joke. If they didn't go into the "KC 2nd half shell" they drop about 47. Other than the 1st possession at no point did Tampa have a chance to tie or take the lead. At home. With every weapon on the field.
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Exactly. I just remember thinking they were straight up pretenders at that point. They didn't play another winning team out of the bye. Recency bias has many thinking this is a legit very good defense but that secondary is still trash! Devin White is a beast but unless TB is getting to the qb all day it won't bail out the coverage.

I severely underestimated how bad Brees arm was last week. Honestly I didn't even think it would be a concern- LoL. This TB secondary hasn't been tested in the playoffs but they definitely will tomorrow. If TB played out of the 2 te set and just ran the ball down GB's throat like the Ravens would I think they'd have a better shot. Just don't see Arians doing that.

At this point I think the total is right on and it all comes down to game flow. GB-170 full game is the only wager I've made. Might be ingaming/2ndh when I see what's going on.
 
Weather looks to be a non-issue.

Temps in the upper 20's, chance of precip and wind speeds both in the single digits by kickoff.
 
Yeah, you and me both. I loaded up on the under 51 when it came out thinking it would drop when I saw the long range forecast.
 
Tampa Bay defense looked very good last week but let’s not forget New Orleans attempted probably 1 pass over 15 yards all game and it was a TD. Brees was no threat to throw the ball down the field. Different animal this week. I have seen this Tampa Bay defense struggle mightily this year. I think Green Bay will have success.
 
C-MAN said:
Tampa Bay defense looked very good last week but let’s not forget New Orleans attempted probably 1 pass over 15 yards all game and it was a TD. Brees was no threat to throw the ball down the field. Different animal this week. I have seen this Tampa Bay defense struggle mightily this year. I think Green Bay will have success.
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I like Bowles as a DC, can't ask for someone to be more aggressive on defense than him but this is the wrong matchup for that. TB will have to outscore GB imo and I don't think they can.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Which surprises me more to see him on punt coverage last weekend v. the Saints, especially when they broke those two long ones at the beginning of the game.
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no shit, I had family over for dinner during that game so I wasn’t paying a great deal of attention, that is strange. I’m assuming he was more a blocker and containment guy and wasn’t running all way down field after the returner?
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
The only game TB gave up more than 27 was game 1
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this would be where I turn the competition level argument on if I wasn’t dismissing it the other way, lol, not really. I believe as I said bout packers I don’t think that holds much water once we get thru a entire season, they all play 16 nfl teams and had to win a playoff game or 2!


you missed one tho, I believe chargers scored 31 and that was in 3 quarters as a typical lynn team they didn’t score in the 4th! Lol. Then falcons scored 27 twice the last 3 weeks when we think Bucs defense been peaking! Rams and kc both hit 27 as well, so not as if they really shutting offenses down, other than kc don’t think any the other teams who have hit 27 against them can come close to matching packers offense. Rams in particular shouldn’t be scoring 27. I would excuse atl doing it in one of the 2 games but both in a 3 week span a little much imo. Washington scoring 23 without scoring in 1st qrtr and throwing for over 300 yards with a backup (who I know you said was pretty good) and limited pass catching weapons was a little much for my taste considering they only hit or exceeded that number a few times in the season.
 
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