NCAAF 18/19 Bowl Thread

M.W. said:
Meaningless exhibition game? It means just as much as any of the other games he played.
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I was the same way before... Now I have just been relegated to it. This will start seeping into the regular season more and more.
 
The problem with football is something we all love. The risk/reward consideration generated by the violence of the sport. The players have to have a reason to risk their bodies. It‘s like the Pro Bowl. They won‘t risk themselves for something meaningless. At least in the NFL the coaches can appeal to paychecks (also incentives to get x amount of yards or whatever) but these are kids with their whole probably non-professional lives ahead of them. Fuck risking my future to play in the toilet bowl!
 
Dont you think Dungey will get drafted or at least signed afterwards?

As far as Army/Houston....how will Houston stop Army without Oliver and no motivation? Army should average 6+ ypp with some long runs....Hou should have success through the air, but as u said....play calling and motivation may not be there....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Dont you think Dungey will get drafted or at least signed afterwards?

As far as Army/Houston....how will Houston stop Army without Oliver and no motivation? Army should average 6+ ypp with some long runs....Hou should have success through the air, but as u said....play calling and motivation may not be there....
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I've been told by a former Syracuse staff member that Dungey's medical history is so bad that it's borderline negligent they still allow him to play football. I think that will exclude him from draft consideration but I could see a team using him like Taysom Hill with the Saints, if he can stay healthy. He's never played a full season.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
The problem with football is something we all love. The risk/reward consideration generated by the violence of the sport. The players have to have a reason to risk their bodies. It‘s like the Pro Bowl. They won‘t risk themselves for something meaningless. At least in the NFL the coaches can appeal to paychecks (also incentives to get x amount of yards or whatever) but these are kids with their whole probably non-professional lives ahead of them. Fuck risking my future to play in the toilet bowl!
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But you could say the same thing about every game.
 
“A group of Gophers football players is expected to be suspended for the program’s appearance in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit on Dec. 26, sources told the Pioneer Press on Tuesday.

This appears to stem from an off-the-field issue after Minnesota beat Wisconsin 37-15 in the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe on Nov. 24.

The Gophers have not held availability for media since they were awarded a spot in the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field on Dec. 26. Minnesota (6-6) will play Georgia Tech (7-5) in the first bowl appearance at the U for second-year head coach P.J. Fleck.”

From Twin Cities Pioneer Press
 
NC State/Texas A&M Under 58.5 -107 (1 unit)

I'm getting off the total. Their OC and playcaller was just hired by App State as HC. Still a chance that Finley could sit, although unlikely. Prefer to just be invested in Texas AM side.
 
AliShaheed said:
Where do you think this line closes at?

I like UF but debating whether I need to jump on it now.
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My thought was not 10, so I went ahead and played. Both teams likely to have some players announce they will skip the game, that will have a role as well. Patterson is playing for UM, so that is great news for UF backers.
 
Surprised you like Wake, what's the thinking? W/o Henderson the value is only greater for Memphis imo, not sure how many (if any) times they have the ball they don't score a TD against that defense. Going to be speed on no speed, and yes I like White more than many, but I expect 55+ from el Tigres.

What you thinking here?
 
KJ said:
Surprised you like Wake, what's the thinking? W/o Henderson the value is only greater for Memphis imo, not sure how many (if any) times they have the ball they don't score a TD against that defense. Going to be speed on no speed, and yes I like White more than many, but I expect 55+ from el Tigres.

What you thinking here?
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I think Wake defense played significantly better down the stretch. If they can duplicate their efforts from the NC State and Duke games, in particular, would likely be enough for a pretty resounding win. I am unable to say much about White other than I think he is absolutely dreadful. I think he's as good a college QB as Lynch was an NFL QB. Here were my thoughts from twitter:

Wake v. Memphis (-5/73.5) Starting w coaching turnover for Memphis. DC just left for NAU HC, OC just left for Aub OC, and TE coach just left for Tulane OC. Norvell still calls plays on offense so prob not a huge deal here. DC wasn't very good at his job so unsure the impact there (My note - he's now staying to coach). Personnel-wise, I don't have any info that isn't publicly available, but I would be very surprised if Darrell Henderson doesn't declare for draft and sit out this game (My note - he's out) . Just use Bryce Love as a recent cautionary tale, cost himself millions, (though that wasn't his main motivator) Assuming Henderson sits, Taylor is plenty capable, but it's impossible to replicate what Hendo has been doing. You lose the main thing that makes your offense excellent and you are left with a really bad QB and a long time for Wake to watch tape and formulate the simple plan. Wake has been playing better down the stretch. They didnt do enough to keep themselves from being ranked amongst the worst defenses in America, but they did show vast improvement, particularly along the DL, where theyve always been talented, but underperforming. Tempo is going to be the highest of any bowl game and both defenses aren't very likely to really shut down the either offense. Memphis bowls every year, this will be fourth in row for seniors, 0-3 so they will want this one. Wake third in row, 2-0 L2. Should be motivated. One area where I think Wake could improve is more reps for Newman at QB. He is still green but his natural ability is tremendous. There is a chance Greg Dortch could declare and skip bowl which would hurt them, but WR is prob Wake's deepest position, even if he's a rare talent. I haven't played anything on this game (My note, I took +5) but I'm considering taking Wake. It hit +6 recently and that is where resistance seems to come. I'll keep chewing on what i wanna do and eyeing Henderson's status, that could push me over the top. I'll go with Wake 38-35.
 
Funny the way you feel about Brady White seems to be about how I feel about the WF run defense (MW has a helluva write up on it) and facing exactly the wrong team to disguise that and I do think Taylor goes off. Should see tons of points no doubt, I'm big on MEM but will tap out the team total once I get it.

Thanks for the response, GL this season.
 
CrimsonK said:
I think Wake defense played significantly better down the stretch.
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State took Wake lightly, and Duke's season is generally over if and when they beat UNC, so I would put much stock in those performances. The Henderson thing, however, is probably a big deal.
 
CK curious have you ever given out confidence pool picks? Would love to see what you have if you dont mind to take a little time. I believe ranked 1-41 (41 being most confident they win outright) Also 40th bowl is Alcorn St and NC A&T & 41st is the National Championship game we do for fun!. If not i completely understand, figured id atleast ask man and appreciate it as i bet quite a few of us do these fun pools! Best of luck in bowl season!
 
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Bossman71 said:
CK curious have you ever given out confidence pool picks? Would love to see what you have if you dont mind to take a little time. I believe ranked 1-41 (41 being most confident they win outright) Also 40th bowl is Alcorn St and NC A&T & 41st is the National Championship game we do for fun!. If not i completely understand, figured id atleast ask man and appreciate it as i bet quite a few of us do these fun pools! Best of luck in bowl season!
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I did last season, through a website that I do some writing for, but havent done one this season. Really wish I could help out but I've got pretty much all my football time already allocated to other stuff before the holidays. I'm spending several hours every day right now profiling CFB players and forecasting how they will translate to the NFL for fantasy football purposes. It's a major grind, so I dont have much extra to give. Maybe I can help more next year, good luck!
 
Oh man. Just noticed you grabbed that early under 64, bad beat. 14-7 at half, fuck. Books cleaned up on that one, bet down to 52 & goes over the opener. I thought my 52 was safe, shouldve bought off at half, oh well.
 
Guys I don't want to speak for CK, but from just following him this season I've realized he is always on top of his plays. Normally he has info none of us have seen. He's gracious enough to give us all lots of insight and we know he stays super busy. I would bet my entire bankroll that if he changes his mind on a play he will post about it.
 
askias said:
Hey CK, do you still like that ASU under even though it's moved up to 54? Thanks.
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I do. I haven’t seen any info that has changed my opinion, just a disagreement with the market. If memory serves, this hasn’t been an uncommon trend on ASU games.
 
Just a general thought in regards to bowl games, ten years ago or so it was my strongest area of the season. Not sure why. Maybe it was a product of matchups that weee easy to cap or just a bunch of positive variance. Bowl season has increased in difficulty for me over the past several seasons. As exciting as it feels to bet on every game, it’s just not the best plan for me to make money, which is what I want to do. I imagine I’m going to have more lines move against me in bowl season than what I’m accustomed to. It really doesn’t bother me too much. My goals are more modest this time year, most my damage has been done. I’ll likely be looking to find edges in the prop market from this point onward. As 5P indicated, if I get any info that would lead me to change my play, I will do my best to post it in as timely a fashion as possible. Hope everyone enjoys the games today, hopefully I can find some props and will post if I do!
 
It isn't just you.

Bowl season was like 'September' all over again back 10-15 years ago.

Times change.

Looking forward to the props.

Good luck and Happy Holidays.
 
Just saw the total drop and saw weather in Bahamas. If it holds, looks like a good edge for Toledo and their rush offense against FIU rush defense. If this is a ground game, it favors the Rockets big time and likely protects their poor secondary. Toledo enough quality at WR too that they can win 1 v1 if it's sloppy and create explosives.

Toledo -5.5 v. FIU -108 (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Just saw the total drop and saw weather in Bahamas. If it holds, looks like a good edge for Toledo and their rush offense against FIU rush defense. If this is a ground game, it favors the Rockets big time and likely protects their poor secondary. Toledo enough quality at WR too that they can win 1 v1 if it's sloppy and create explosives.

Toledo -5.5 v. FIU -108 (1 unit)
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Agree with most of your analysis with one exception. As I remember the field, it is a grass field that will be a quagmire after two days of thunderstorms dumping downpours on the field. Not sure there will be any explosive plays, particularly in the passing game. Thanks for your insight on the game.
 
Bout time to fire up that weather thread if I can get to it in a bit. Looked thru Thursday games on Saturday but didn't make it to Friday, although not really a big fan that far out of forecasts in general. Sounds like this should be a decent storm, prolly need to check out the Thursday game again as well.
 
CrimsonK said:
Just saw the total drop and saw weather in Bahamas. If it holds, looks like a good edge for Toledo and their rush offense against FIU rush defense. If this is a ground game, it favors the Rockets big time and likely protects their poor secondary. Toledo enough quality at WR too that they can win 1 v1 if it's sloppy and create explosives.

Toledo -5.5 v. FIU -108 (1 unit)
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Agree 100 percent with this...especially with winds over 25+ mph...gonna be tough to throw
 
Forecast has changed for Thursday. Rain shouldn't start until Friday so shouldn't have a quagmire. Still looks bad for gameday.

Kentucky +7 v. Penn State -115 (1 unit)
 
MNGophs said:
CK - Thoughts on Marshall? Seeing other at CTG lining up for USF. Thanks.
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Twitter thoughts:

Marshall @ USF (+2.5/55.5) Notice the @ instead of v. Yep, USF rewarded with a bowl trip to their home stadium. What a collapse down the stretch for USF. 7-0, ranked and then finish on five-game-skid. Fourth bowl in row for USF, playing at home. Where is motivation?USF avg 29 ppg but in the 5 game skid they scored 36, 15, 23, 17, 10. Marshall has second best defense of the group, somehwere in middle seems like a fairly optimistic output forecast for USF against a Marshall def that allows 22 PPG. USF may be without QB Blake Barnett again. Their collapse down the stretch has coincided with his injury. They will have a new OC as massively overrated Sterlin Gilbert will be the new HC at McNeese. USF rush defense is bottom 25 and pass defense is average. Theyve allowed 27+ in last 6 games. Remedy for bad Marsh off. The issues for Marshall start at QB. Theyve tried two guys this year and both have been very disappointing. QB shouldnt have to do much here though as they should have lotta success running it. They are avg rush off and below avg pass off. Good for the matchup. With USF having QB issues, they will want to rely on their ground game. Problem is, Marshall has an elite rush defense, raw top 10 statistically. They arent bad in the secondary, they just get tested there more than they do against run. Holliday is v good bowl coach, 5-0 SU+ATS. Third bowl game in past four years for Marshall's seniors. I think they have to be the more motivated team, considering USF is playing at home in a meaningless game. WR Tyre Brady will be drafted and has said he will be playing for Marshall in the game. Thats very significant. The other good news is that Marshall may be getting Tyler King back at RB (My note - still ?) , who has been sorely missed. He's very dynamic and could have a field day against this defense. Marshall has ST and big coaching edges. I havent bet Marshall (My note, now I have) and I'm still plotting how I want to approach it. There are some props I could see getting my attention, I could be convinced to take a USF team total under with a likely first time play caller in Shaun King (Yep, of Tulane and Bucs). Weather is now going to impact the game with it being wet and sloppy, thats a huge edge to Marshall. (My updated weather note) I'll go with a 30-17 Marshall win.
 
Haven't looked today but sustained rain all day was forecast. Be later before I get into it if any updates.
 
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