NBA Week 4 11/19-

lifesallover

Pretty much a regular
YTD 16-10-1 Spread+Totals, 2-0 ML Parlays.

Small plays tonight, so I don't love any plays, but I like a few.

Seattle Sonics @ Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 (.5unit)
I think the Grizzlies are a much better team, I think they are just starting to gel, and could be dangerous this year. Yag has come out strong, and would be my pick for Most Improved Player so far. Navarro is solid, as Rod_Steel stated, he needs to be in the starting lineup, Although i don't know if they can, I'm not sure if he is good enough to run the point, I don't think you can take out Miller -he's struggled early, which is befuddling, because he had a solid summer playing in the Fiba Games. Either way he needs to get more then 17 minutes a game he's been getting. Last two games he's gotten 30-33 minutes and has produced. I still don't buy into the Sonics. Looks like Milicic is not going to be playing, but I don't think it's a big loss considering Sonics bigs aren't going to kill you, Wilcox is underrated, but they have enough depth to cope.

Portland Trailblazers +2 @ Charlotte Bobcats 1Quarter. (.5Unit)
Charlotte is not a strong 1st quarter team, coming out of the gates slowly. I think only twice have the lead after the first quarter. When Portland plays well, they usually are tight games from the start. Honestly this game shouldn't be touched, but it's my only televised game and would like a little something. Portland is gonna switch some things up, and slow the game down, this first quarter is pivatol. Are they going to continue to hang their heads, or will they see this as a possible victory and turn things around. Portland can still win this game, but I have a weird feeling either the Blazers win are lose by 12+. This is just a play for interaction.

Portland Trailblazers @ Charlotte Bobcats Under189 (.5Unit)
Simply put, the Blazers are going to try and slow things down, I expect this game to be played in the mid 80's, consensus on staying back to rebound (Nate is emphasizing this), with everyone crashing the boards, they won't get out and run. And should Charlotte press (like they should, and has proven to be very successful the last couple days), they should throw the offense out of rhythm.

If Blazers are tight at the half, I will be looking to make a play, this first half will tell the story of the game, I think.
 
hard to gauge SEA for that game, and I agree Darko is no loss. And so much for averaging 100 every night from Por's camp.

BOL lifes:cheers:
 
hard to gauge SEA for that game, and I agree Darko is no loss. And so much for averaging 100 every night from Por's camp.

BOL lifes:cheers:


hahaha no shit, I feel like a real dbag to because I was pumping up that information telling everyone about their new tempo, they've ecplised 100 twice all year, haha. It's a shame this season is such a wash, because I think a healthy Oden would change this ballclub so much, and with his athletic ability and rebounding, uptempo would be an option, but he's not and it's not. So we'll see what they come up with the rest of the way:23_29_107v:
 
Blazers cover the 1Q spread 23-24. The under is going to be close, one of the teams is gonna have to go on a nice drought.
 
Well in the final 3 minutes the Blazers have outscored the Bobcats 2pts to 1. Blazers gave up several offensive rebounds down the stretch. They looked dejected, no play on 2 half, if anything it'd be a play on Charlotte.

Side note, Josh McRoberts trailblazers 2nd round pick, out of Duke (hometown Charlotte) made his NBA Debut with about 30seconds left in the half, his introduction, OOOOH Steve Blake halftime halfcourt three point buzzer beater. I digress, McRoberts has his named called, and the crowd gives it's best effort all night as far as enthusiasm, and boo'ed him in unison. Blazers outscore the Cats 5to1 in the final three minutes. Whether or not the blazers use the slumping pg's final second heave as motivation, is debatable. No play for me, I'll have to look at the line, if anything lean to charlotte. 35-39Char.

Under is lookin great halfway through.
 
The Under is absolute bullshit. Can't even believe that lost, I am speachless. Halftime score is 36-40. That's 76 points combined for both teams. Under should be in a bag right, two of the worst offenses in the NBA, both of them struggling. They scored 69 points combined in the 4th alone. What a bunch of bullshit, I'm glad it was a small wager, cause I would've hit the roof otherwise. Unbelievable, Portland couldn't score, couldn't hold on to the ball the final 3 minutes, down double digits with less then 2 minutes to go, and they keep fouling. I'm lost right now, it looked like money in the bank the entire game, the flow felt like it was a sure thing. Yuck, I'm glad tomorrow is tuesday, and I still gotta little something left in the baggy:bong:

1-1 so far, with memphis up 20, lets watch them :crap_on_face: at center court.
 
Couple things to note for myself incase I forget in the morning.
Denver, is already played for 1unit, for every reason everyone else has stated. And the books keep throwing huge chalk on denver at home and they keep covering.

Kind of like Atlanta at home +7 to the spurs. The Hawks are 3-2 at home, including wins over Phoenix and Dallas. Their troubles have been on the road, a plague for many young teams. They can get up for the home games, but haven't put it together on the road, so they can sneak up on elite teams at home. I think there's potential for a SU win, with SA maybe looking ahead to Orlando, and for the fact that the hawks have done it before, makes +7 pretty appealing right now.

Also, if hawks DO win SU, maybe a nice fade the following night flying half way across the country for a game against Wade and company after a nice win in NJ. Chance for a let down, off a nice win then heading on the road where they're 0-4 on the season.

I'd like to say I like Toronto getting points at Dallas, but I have no grasp of that team.


Only play in right now is Denver -8.5, I got a bad line, but I think they win DD anyway. Will wait til the morning to see what happens with the line on the ATL game. BOL
 
Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets -8.5 (1 Unit)
Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets -2 1st Quarter (1 Unit)
Bulls will be without Deng, and Nuggets have been tough on opponents in the pepsi center. This game has been talked about a lot, so nothing new to say. I do worry about the frontcourt depth with Martin out, gonna be a lot of Klieza and Najera.

Phoenix Suns -4.5 @ Sacramento Kings 1st Half (1 Unit)
Suns have been crushing people in the first half. So I'll keep riding it, I love this play a lot more if Bell is in to gaurd Martin. Kings are improving, and should make a game of this, but I think the Suns jump out them early.

San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks +7 (.5 Unit)
A lot of points for the home team, one that has knocked off Dallas and Phoenix already on their court. Back home off a couple rough losses, they'll want to reestablish the tone at home.

Milwaukie Bucks +6.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (.5 Unit)
Still not sold on the Cavaliers, Bucks have a pretty solid 5, think they give the Cavs everything they can handle.

ML Parlay: Wash, GSW, Den, Pho, .5unit to win a little under .75

BOL tonight
 
Wow, don't think I could ask for much more on the night. 4-1 one lines, and 1-0 on ML Parlay on the night, with the loss coming from the hawks. Tomorrow should be a trainwreck, the idea of my having back2back good days is not likely. 22-11-1 YTD Spreads/Totals, and 3-0 on ML Parlays.

Heat at -8 and Celtics at -10, or too much chalk for me to swallow, I'll be laying off.

Does Washington play better as a team without Arenas? Their past 4 or so games is pretty weird, granted talent hasn't been the steepest. Charlotte is not bad, and Felton looks a little better then I had anticipated preseason.

I love playing Memphis, I think they are as good as Toronto. Im not sure public perception has changed from last year. I don't think Toronto is as good as they were last year, and I think Memphis is a lot better then they were. I like Memphis as a small favorite.

I like Orlando here, they managed to avoid a let down in NO against a solid team, though CP3less.

Denver is tempting again, LAC is a joke without Maggette and Mobley, period. They do not have the offense to keep up with Denver, I think the Nuggets can set the number if they want to.
 
Alright, hoping I don't go 0-4 tonight, lol.
Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 (1.5 Units)

Denver Nuggets -6 @ LA Clippers (1 Unit)

LA Lakers -1.5 @ Milwaukie Bucks (1 Unt)
Complete tail of Killa, I'm sold

ML Parlay: Char, Houston-2, Mia, Pho, Den, risking .5unit to win 2units.

No write ups for now, GL tonight everyone
 
I think the whole board is on about the same 4 or 5 picks. This board will either be dead and dejected, or poppin bottles, tonight will be feast or famine for sure. GL tonight abcs
 
Wow LAL and Memphis come up empty handed. 0-3 right now, needing Denver to come through so I don't go into turkey day on an 0-4 streak.
 
Tomorrow should be a trainwreck, the idea of my having back2back good days is not likely.


Too bad I didn't fade myself. 0-3 Spreads 0-1 ML Parlay, what a stinker of a day. 22-15-1 YTD and 3-1 on Parlays. I'll overdose on stuffing tomorrow, and hope to forget about tonight.
 
Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trailblazers -5 (2 Units) (edit, got it at -5, not 5.5)
This is a game Portland can and needs to win. I hate the idea of laying this much chalk with Portland, it's a recipe for disaster, I know. But Portland is a better team, with or without Artest. Who is questionable for this game. So is Udrih who has been quietly having a decent season. Portland off their first home loss to the Nets. I think Portland is going to finally be over that Philly game. I believe they have been showing all the right signs, blow huge loss, get blown out, play tight for a half a game and lose it down the stretch, and then lose a back and forth tight ball game. And now they win tonight, Portland is a different team at home, and they can beat up inferior teams. The 5.5 worries me as anything is possible in a blazer game, but I see a ten point win. Of the four blazer wins, 3 of them are by 8 or more, and of course, all at home.



<LI class=more>Trail Blazers are 8-26-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite.By no means is this a play of trends, haha. But sometimes you feel something, as much as a trend tells you otherwise. So we'll see, if not, it's a loser.
 
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Memphis Grizzlies +13 @ San Antonio Spurs (1 Unit)
I like this Grizzlies team, and so I'll continue riding them. They let down big Wed against Toronto. But I'm still impressed, 13 is a lot of a points. That's all I got

New Jersey Nets -3 @ Seattle Sonics (.5 Unit)
Nets are not that bad of a team, and Sonics are bad.

Houston Rockets -1 @ Miami Heat 1Q (.5 Unit)
Like the rest of the board, I like Houston, but with everyone on it, I'm worrisome. I'll take a stab at the 1q though.

BOL Everyone.
 
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Another poor showing. Like Washington +6 at Memphis at first glance, but my book doesn't have lines up yet. 1-2-1 on the night. 23-17-2 YTD
 
BAR no doubt.
Orlando -7.5 2 Units
Washington +5.5 1 Unit
Orlando/Miami Under 181 3 Units (if it goes up, I'll hit it some more)
New Orleans Hornets -2

Thats it for now, boom or bust
 
Wow, pulled the trigger wayyy to early on on the under 181, it's up to 187 now 3 more possessions losts, I would hit it again but I have no more money in the bankroll haha, looks like I'll sweat it out, little bummed right now.
 
I've just been using my college football profits, and what I'm trying to do is either get 1k and cash out, or get it down to zero. BetUS is a pretty shitty book, and the lines always come out late, but I'd like to get rid of the one and then move on. So I'm not really concerned, I just would like one or the other to happen haha. Seems like I have a great day and get within about a hundred 150, and then follow it up with a stinker and fall way below. Sighh

My under was a disaster, actually felt really good about it, envisoned like a 92-78 type score, boy was I off. :suicide: Atleast Orlando did cover. Memphis is beating up on Washington. Would like Atlanta to get their shit together and win this game to complete the parlay.
 
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>12/22/06</TD><TD class=datacell>NJ 95 - LAL 99</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 203</TD><TD class=datacell>-1.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>35/84</TD><TD class=datacell>34/71</TD><TD class=datacell>35-45</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/26/06</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 99 - NJ 93</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL -4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 191.5</TD><TD class=datacell>1.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>37/82</TD><TD class=datacell>35/72</TD><TD class=datacell>39-42</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>03/17/06</TD><TD class=datacell>NJ 92 - LAL 89</TD><TD class=datacell>Push -3</TD><TD class=datacell>U 189</TD><TD class=datacell>0.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>36/79</TD><TD class=datacell>34/70</TD><TD class=datacell>31-42</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11/27/05</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 96 - NJ 102 (OT)</TD><TD class=datacell>NJ 2.0</TD><TD class=datacell>O 192.5</TD><TD class=datacell>-4.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>32/95</TD><TD class=datacell>34/77</TD><TD class=datacell>48-49</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>02/09/05</TD><TD class=datacell>NJ 103 - LAL 104 (OT)</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>O 198.5</TD><TD class=datacell>4.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>36/89</TD><TD class=datacell>36/84</TD><TD class=datacell>38-51</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>01/28/05</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 103 - NJ 109</TD><TD class=datacell>NJ 3.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 193</TD><TD class=datacell>-2.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>37/89</TD><TD class=datacell>43/81</TD><TD class=datacell>55-28</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>03/07/04</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 94 - NJ 88</TD><TD class=datacell>Push -6</TD><TD class=datacell>U 183</TD><TD class=datacell>0.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>36/81</TD><TD class=datacell>36/88</TD><TD class=datacell>45-50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>02/29/04</TD><TD class=datacell>NJ 83 - LAL 100</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 192</TD><TD class=datacell>-14.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>32/77</TD><TD class=datacell>39/83</TD><TD class=datacell>39-49</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>01/24/03</TD><TD class=datacell>LAL 83 - NJ 89</TD><TD class=datacell>NJ 7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>U 197.5</TD><TD class=datacell>1.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>34/84</TD><TD class=datacell>35/79</TD><TD class=datacell>46-43</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>





Thats 1 time in the last 9 meetings between these two teams has been by a margin of 7 or more. 1 time, who knows, maybe todays the day it's number 2.

Also like the fact that Kristic is out, he's been horrible, complete disappointment. Hopefully Sean Williams will be able to get some bigger minutes
 
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Nets were a winner, 1-0 on the night. 27-19-2 YTD.

So far tonight I'm on Magic -4.5 @ Portland for 3units, and Washington +12 @ Dallas for 1 unit. Got my eye on a few more, we'll see.
 
Plays for the day so far:
Orlando Magic -4.5 @ Portland Trailblazers (3 Units)
Far superior team. The Blazers are a tough beat at home, but the word is out. I don't see how the Magic don't win by 10 here, Howard should have a field day against the Blazers frontcourt, nothing less then 15 rebounds. Just don't see Portland standing a chance tonight. It worries me that this play is so public, I may buy a unit off for Portland at +7 closer to tipoff. Play almost feels to easy.

Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors o55 1st Quarter (2 Units)
Should be a shootout, plan and simple, line is already up to 60 or I would add another. Couple worries, GS coming back from a long road trip (where they did well) now they play one home game, and hit the road again. Although it is only up to Sacramento, it's a concern.

Washington Wizards +12 @ Dallas Mavericks (1 Unit)
It appears the Wizards are playing better as a team without Arenas. However I worry that they may now be realizing how nice it is to have someone to give the ball to who can rack up 30. They played really well initially and then lost their last two. I still think 12 is a lot of a Mavs team to lay that hasn't been all that impressive

Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.
Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall

Now, with that said, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Mavs win by 20, they are capable of it; they simply haven't shown it this year.

Phoenix -5.5 & Over 228 Parlay (.5unit to win a little over 1 unit)
Having second thoughts about this one, GSW +6 has a little more value, high scoring game, could go either way, could be close. Oh well .5unit and it's already locked in.

ML Parlay of the Night: Orl and Utah: 1unit to win .85 Unit. Both road favorites, but I don't see either one losing.

Still looking at Dal/Wash Over206.5, Utah-6, Sac+7, LAC+7.5


BOL Tonight fellas.
 
Decided to buy a unit off Magic with Portland+7. Washington is up 47-45 at halftime, would like to see the Jazz get this W though.:4_6_202v:
 
Today was profitable, wish I wouldn't have bought off a unit from the Magic game, but hindsight.. 3-0 Spreads (+6units) 0-2 Parlays (-1.50units). YTD 30-19-2 Spreads/Totals, YTD Parlays 4-3.
 
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