NBA Playoffs...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
I was tempted right away to lay 3 tonight when the line opened fwiw...
I expect that I will get a better number ingame...
If I had to predict the game...
Boston comes out solid, running good after that great series.
Cleveland comes out a little rusty.
Cleveland takes control
Boston emotion wears off from that 16 day(
) series.
Cavs win in the 2nd half.
Now,
I don't want to get carried away with Game 1.We have a good scenario here. Boston isn't going up 2-0 in this series whatsoever. This is almost the good game to play initially (or live) for a base unit and if it loses, so be it and double up time in game 2(ML I would think).
Basically, if you play it right, you almost for sure will win money on the first two games in Boston.
I expect that I will get a better number ingame...
If I had to predict the game...
Boston comes out solid, running good after that great series.
Cleveland comes out a little rusty.
Cleveland takes control
Boston emotion wears off from that 16 day(
) series.Cavs win in the 2nd half.
Now,
I don't want to get carried away with Game 1.We have a good scenario here. Boston isn't going up 2-0 in this series whatsoever. This is almost the good game to play initially (or live) for a base unit and if it loses, so be it and double up time in game 2(ML I would think).
Basically, if you play it right, you almost for sure will win money on the first two games in Boston.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Agree totally. Only way we see the Cavs leave Boston winless is a serious Lebron injury in the 1H tonight. Other than that, at least 1 win is pretty much guaranteed.
Also considering Celtics 1Q or 1H. Clevelands MO is to hang early and finish late. I've seen that movie many times.
In the immortal words of D8...crush bookies!
Also considering Celtics 1Q or 1H. Clevelands MO is to hang early and finish late. I've seen that movie many times.
In the immortal words of D8...crush bookies!
Adding: Furnaces
H.R. Pufnstuf
Pretty much a regular
Sometimes you just gotta keep it simple BAR. we all knew this would be ugly. Cavs every game
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
We'd then have a 9 day break between the last conference final game and the start of the Finals.
And then the Finals last 19 days...
Yes, 19 fricking days.
We are looking at 4 more weeks for each team to win 6-7 more games.
jdoggoakley
Pretty much a regular
same could be said about Klay tomorrow...and the All-NBA-Team snub added in
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Klay is the 1 player since KD was signed who willingly took a lesser roll.
Yeah, he doesn't seem to get too flustered but after 6 minutes or so of no FGA's he will fire up a bad shot out of a bit of frustration I believe. One other thing I noticed the two games in S.A. is the guy simply cannot buy a call when he goes to the basket. I can remember a handful of times he stopped after a play just staring in disbelief at the officials and I do not blame him.
Hopefully for the Dubs he is content for 4-7 more games. They very well might need one of his magic quarters sometime though.
Going back several pages to discussing live betting...two examples...
-I have stated that one of the biggest things I look for is unders in the 4th quarter at some point(this could be late third or early 4th...generally in blowouts or games where the first 3 quarters all sailed over). Well, I also said the Spurs style in blowouts is to keep scoring and pushing. Well, this showed a bit in this past series. The only game it didn't of the last 3 was Game 3. That was a game where the first 3 quarters were just a scoring bonanza. Just something to keep in mind for next year...
-Cleveland in Game 4 was the easiest live bet in sometime. I will say, I got lucky. I took a small stab on a Cle 1q tt over that lost without a chance and I never saw the score till late 2nd quarter. I was unable to make a play at halftime but once I was able to get -2 for the game with 22 minutes left it was a Top Unit + play. The situation was perfect. They are off an epic fail in Game 3 at home playing against a team that is over matched but had played 3-4 straight quarters of good hoops. Things were going to change. That is not that many possessions to overcome in the NBA in today's league which had the highest pace in 26-27 years. So now, you got the best team in the conference that was ~15 point favorite laying a bucket with almost half the game to go... In the words of the 'Mandlebaums'...It's Go Time!
-I have stated that one of the biggest things I look for is unders in the 4th quarter at some point(this could be late third or early 4th...generally in blowouts or games where the first 3 quarters all sailed over). Well, I also said the Spurs style in blowouts is to keep scoring and pushing. Well, this showed a bit in this past series. The only game it didn't of the last 3 was Game 3. That was a game where the first 3 quarters were just a scoring bonanza. Just something to keep in mind for next year...
-Cleveland in Game 4 was the easiest live bet in sometime. I will say, I got lucky. I took a small stab on a Cle 1q tt over that lost without a chance and I never saw the score till late 2nd quarter. I was unable to make a play at halftime but once I was able to get -2 for the game with 22 minutes left it was a Top Unit + play. The situation was perfect. They are off an epic fail in Game 3 at home playing against a team that is over matched but had played 3-4 straight quarters of good hoops. Things were going to change. That is not that many possessions to overcome in the NBA in today's league which had the highest pace in 26-27 years. So now, you got the best team in the conference that was ~15 point favorite laying a bucket with almost half the game to go... In the words of the 'Mandlebaums'...It's Go Time!
Game 5 at Boston should be the closeout game. The last I looked it was -10 or so. Factoring in the injury plus the closeout factor this is about right. That is still a tough number to lay in a road game regardless of how things went up at TD last week. I'd love to see the line get to -3 or so LIVE in the first half but I doubt that happens. We'll see though. I'll be looking for 3 high-scoring quarters hopefully.
Time to get ready for the Finals. :shake1:
Time to get ready for the Finals. :shake1:
I decided one other approach for tonight.
I am starting with Cleveland -9.5 -110 for 2.00 units
I've seen enough of a sample size of how the LIVE number moves with these huge road favorites. I think I will have a better chance to play this to start and perhaps get a middle? Or maybe I keep it? I would say I'll at least try and middle half of the bet and go from there...
Obviously a TORRID start from the Celtics would not be good for me but that doesn't kill everything...
I feel pretty good at being able to not lose more than vig on this bet at the worst and perhaps make 2-4 units off it...
Still will be looking at total as game goes obviously...
I am starting with Cleveland -9.5 -110 for 2.00 units
I've seen enough of a sample size of how the LIVE number moves with these huge road favorites. I think I will have a better chance to play this to start and perhaps get a middle? Or maybe I keep it? I would say I'll at least try and middle half of the bet and go from there...
Obviously a TORRID start from the Celtics would not be good for me but that doesn't kill everything...
I feel pretty good at being able to not lose more than vig on this bet at the worst and perhaps make 2-4 units off it...
Still will be looking at total as game goes obviously...
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Smokes that expensive now?
I think that is the 'cap' for this total...I am getting 27.5 more than closing number...have to bet it...and obviously will look for a middle...
H.R. Pufnstuf
Pretty much a regular
Would you still take it at 240??
Yeah, I would....that is just taking the 2nd half under basically
I like to wait usually till later in a game but had to go early on principle...
Who knows..we could see a game where there is like 40 points in first half of third and I start getting nervous...
I have a few different middle goals here...we'll see what happens...
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