hugh613
Pretty much a regular
:cheers3:
NBA Playoffs...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Sorry for the delay.
Let me first preface, this is a daily learning process. I fully believe it is easier to profit at NBA using Live betting as either your go-to or a supplement. I also think it might be much easier in the playoffs than in regular season(too many variables) but who really knows. I used it a lot in the regular season for 4th quarter unders and it hit more often than not.
Here is my example of playing with the total. I'll look at last nights game between Cleveland and Toronto.
First and foremost, know your starting point. That would be the total of the game before it tips off. We'll use the widely avail number of 214 for last night.
Second, have a gameplan. As you saw by me taking the Cavs 1q tt over I already was expecting some points early, and hopefully often. I will say, in today's NBA I am looking for unders more than overs. That may sound unreal but that is the thing, you have to adjust to each game.
Third, if I can I watch how the total is moving for most of the game to get a feel. Last night we had a 110 point first half on a 114 game total. Really, nothing out of the ordinary but then the floodgates opened early in the third. That game total started rising and rising...
* I try and project numbers I want both pre-game and during the game. Adjust on the fly...
* You obviously more times than not want the best of the number..your not taking under 214 whatsoever live here unless something crazy had happened.
Okay, now, I have a perfect situation imo. The scoring has really never had a drought and we are in the middle of the third-ish. I fully believe you will always see one 'lower' quarter or something close to it. So, even though it feels like this game is going to hit 230-240 with no problem I need to remember the law of averages here...
Live Bet Under 225
Live Bet Under 227.5
Live Bet Under 230
Live Bet Under 232
Live Bet Under 234
Now, how you bet those is up to you. It is all feel to me, start a little smaller and hope it keeps rising and risk a little more each time.
Now, remember the game total is 214, I feel the 'cap' is going to be 234. That is just astronomical to go over by 20 points. This is more prone to happen in regular season than playoffs imo. That is just an educated guess from experiences this season. I think this one hit 236 at one point. I had enough invested though.
The end of 3rd saw the first slow-down and at the start of the 4th the Live total was 222.5. I could only dream that to be honest to get there that quickly. Remember, live betting stops somewhere between 5 mins and 7:30 depending on what book you use.
Now, in this instance, I see a blowout and we are due for an average qtr if not lower of scoring. I make decisions now of whether I want to middle this for all, some or none.
I played over 222.5 for 40% of my unders. I think at worst it will cover my lower two and maybe this is just a bad 4th and it goes way under.
What happened in this game was the last 6 minutes had 30 points. That is a lot in a blowout. I would guess 20-25 usually here. I didn't plan on winning all the bets but want to profit...so...with the 125-103 final we hit 228 total points...
Win on over 222.5
Win on under 233.5, 232 and 230.
Got hooked on 227.5 and lost 225.
Sometimes you don't even try to middle. I feel fortunate to have hit 8 or 9 middles these playoffs but the games have worked out that ways.
So to sum up...
-Follow the scoring
-Get value
-Don't get greedy
-Take your medicine if it just keeps going over or under(depending on how you played it)
If your looking for an Over example, look no further than Game 5 of Utah and Clippers.
Moneylines is simple.
I want + money both ways.
This is much easier said than done.
Obviously the closer a game is to 'pickem the better.
This is another one where you 'have to take your medicine'. Last nights Rockets-Spurs game is a good example. When one team never leads at all your kinda screwed. You take a loss or hope to be able to buy off.
I want + money both ways.
This is much easier said than done.
Obviously the closer a game is to 'pickem the better.
This is another one where you 'have to take your medicine'. Last nights Rockets-Spurs game is a good example. When one team never leads at all your kinda screwed. You take a loss or hope to be able to buy off.
Quick thoughts for tonight...
This is the classic spot you bet on the Bullets. I still think they can win this series, albeit not like I did before the match started. Here is my contra to think about tonight...
Washington could easily be up 2-0 in this series and it should be 1-1. The first game they shot right out of the gate but simply could not sustain anything in 4th with that unreal Celtics 3-point shooting. The loss of Morris hurt as well. The other night was a tough one because they controlled the game and held Boston at bay for awhile. After a 4th quarter run by the C's it seemed like the Wiz had taken control back but they went into the shitter and couldn't execute late. Plus, lil Zeke was brilliant, obviously. That is a tough slate to bounce back from.
Now, Boston is coming off two emotional victories. This is a perfect throwaway game for them if they get down early.
It is very interesting to me.
My 'prop' head says play Beal tonight but I swore off prop bets, we call it the 'Curse of Klay'.
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Out west, no idea yet. I am working on a potential pregame play though.
This is the classic spot you bet on the Bullets. I still think they can win this series, albeit not like I did before the match started. Here is my contra to think about tonight...
Washington could easily be up 2-0 in this series and it should be 1-1. The first game they shot right out of the gate but simply could not sustain anything in 4th with that unreal Celtics 3-point shooting. The loss of Morris hurt as well. The other night was a tough one because they controlled the game and held Boston at bay for awhile. After a 4th quarter run by the C's it seemed like the Wiz had taken control back but they went into the shitter and couldn't execute late. Plus, lil Zeke was brilliant, obviously. That is a tough slate to bounce back from.
Now, Boston is coming off two emotional victories. This is a perfect throwaway game for them if they get down early.
It is very interesting to me.
My 'prop' head says play Beal tonight but I swore off prop bets, we call it the 'Curse of Klay'.
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Out west, no idea yet. I am working on a potential pregame play though.
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for the response. Unfortunately, I don't think my brain's wired to work that way where I can process that much information in such a limited amount of time (which ways the number moving, which way is it likely to go, etc), especially with something like football where I have to keep track of 'key' numbers et al... That and not really disciplined enough to see the game all the way through if things start going south (the 'cash out' option they have on bet365 has probably cost me more than I care to admit).
Probably not a bad idea to turn your thoughts into its own thread just so it gets some more exposure and maybe some more discussion.
:shake:
Probably not a bad idea to turn your thoughts into its own thread just so it gets some more exposure and maybe some more discussion.
:shake:
I saw the game and was half-laughing at some of the shots and turnovers but man...
http://deadspin.com/some-basketball-stuff-bradley-beal-did-last-night-1794873507
http://deadspin.com/some-basketball-stuff-bradley-beal-did-last-night-1794873507
Thoughts through Friday...
Washington and Boston
Good response by the Bullets the other night. You had to figure they would come out strong, my fear was that they were deflated but they were not. It was basically a throw away game for the Celtics and they knew it. Little Zeke wasn't too aggressive and I almost think Stevens was glad to see them look like hot garbage. The intensity is there with these teams and it should be a great rest of the series. The Oubre suspension will show up more in Game 4, which I expect to be a dogfight.
This was a classic live betting under as we got some great numbers going into a blowout 4th quarter.
Toronto and Cleveland
I wanted to give up my 'no props' oath on Demar last night but they pulled them anyways due to Seasoning Salt factor. This series was obviously never going to be much of a fight. The Cavs looked a little lackadaisical for 2+ quarters but then took control versus a team with limited options offensively. I'll look for a reasonable live number tomorrow or short ML.
This was an interesting betting game for me. I posted my Cavs play. I wanted that number and wanted it before we found out injury situation. I kept it and kept it and then once it went to 2.5 before the game I straight up maxed it out. I figured Seasoning Salt was playing at this point but he didn't. My intention then was to try and middle this somewhere 7 points and more. After the late first half run I was kinda screwed I felt and willing to buy off a lot when it got back to 2.5 or 3. I did that for 60% of the bet in the third quarter and that is right when Cleveland started their run. I already had an over taken in 2nd half and tried middling the last of my Cavs bet with the Raps as well(dumb move). Anyways, I ended up winning around 1.9 units so it is basically like I had the original bet. I was busy last night so was unable to divide full attention to the game to be quite honest and that is tough to be trying to finagle numbers.
Rockets and Spurs
I have been a firm believer that the Spurs win this series. Obviously with the injury last night was unbettable either way. I saw all the Rockets love and they have the 'sex' appeal but that doesn't win games all the time. The three-point shooting has regressed to where I thought it would. Game 1 was a bit of fool's gold for the impression everyone gets of this series. Now, I don't want to go saying that this is an easy Spurs series win(although I believe they will win it) but we need a true 'barometer' game to decide. We have had two blowouts and another game controlled by the road team. I think we get a 'true' game 4 and that will tell us a lot more of what to expect for a potential best of 3 coming up.
*Look at our refs. A game with fewer fouls favors the Spurs and I believe the opposite in a game with more whistles.
I was a Spurs backer before the series started. I have yet to make a series or game bet. I somehow had under 220 and over 202.5 last night before the 6 min mark of 2nd quarter and that was all I saw before the very end. I should have waited till halftime after the intitial under as the 2h was going to play to an over at some point. Oh well, juiced out on it. Nothing more, nothing less.
Jazz and Warriors
Nothing really to get surprised about in the first two games. I want to say that Utah is playing into the Warriors hands but the game was closer by doing that instead of their milk the shot clock style. Who knows? We now go to the best HCA in the NBA where the Jazz could easily be 0-3 these playoffs entering tonight. I literally have no idea what to expect. I want to say they can give them a good game and that the Warriors escape late. I also think they see what their NBA Finals match up padnuh out East did last night and they have that type of game(more from the beginning though as far as controlling). This is just a good game to watch and see and get a better number Live.
Washington and Boston
Good response by the Bullets the other night. You had to figure they would come out strong, my fear was that they were deflated but they were not. It was basically a throw away game for the Celtics and they knew it. Little Zeke wasn't too aggressive and I almost think Stevens was glad to see them look like hot garbage. The intensity is there with these teams and it should be a great rest of the series. The Oubre suspension will show up more in Game 4, which I expect to be a dogfight.
This was a classic live betting under as we got some great numbers going into a blowout 4th quarter.
Toronto and Cleveland
I wanted to give up my 'no props' oath on Demar last night but they pulled them anyways due to Seasoning Salt factor. This series was obviously never going to be much of a fight. The Cavs looked a little lackadaisical for 2+ quarters but then took control versus a team with limited options offensively. I'll look for a reasonable live number tomorrow or short ML.
This was an interesting betting game for me. I posted my Cavs play. I wanted that number and wanted it before we found out injury situation. I kept it and kept it and then once it went to 2.5 before the game I straight up maxed it out. I figured Seasoning Salt was playing at this point but he didn't. My intention then was to try and middle this somewhere 7 points and more. After the late first half run I was kinda screwed I felt and willing to buy off a lot when it got back to 2.5 or 3. I did that for 60% of the bet in the third quarter and that is right when Cleveland started their run. I already had an over taken in 2nd half and tried middling the last of my Cavs bet with the Raps as well(dumb move). Anyways, I ended up winning around 1.9 units so it is basically like I had the original bet. I was busy last night so was unable to divide full attention to the game to be quite honest and that is tough to be trying to finagle numbers.
Rockets and Spurs
I have been a firm believer that the Spurs win this series. Obviously with the injury last night was unbettable either way. I saw all the Rockets love and they have the 'sex' appeal but that doesn't win games all the time. The three-point shooting has regressed to where I thought it would. Game 1 was a bit of fool's gold for the impression everyone gets of this series. Now, I don't want to go saying that this is an easy Spurs series win(although I believe they will win it) but we need a true 'barometer' game to decide. We have had two blowouts and another game controlled by the road team. I think we get a 'true' game 4 and that will tell us a lot more of what to expect for a potential best of 3 coming up.
*Look at our refs. A game with fewer fouls favors the Spurs and I believe the opposite in a game with more whistles.
I was a Spurs backer before the series started. I have yet to make a series or game bet. I somehow had under 220 and over 202.5 last night before the 6 min mark of 2nd quarter and that was all I saw before the very end. I should have waited till halftime after the intitial under as the 2h was going to play to an over at some point. Oh well, juiced out on it. Nothing more, nothing less.
Jazz and Warriors
Nothing really to get surprised about in the first two games. I want to say that Utah is playing into the Warriors hands but the game was closer by doing that instead of their milk the shot clock style. Who knows? We now go to the best HCA in the NBA where the Jazz could easily be 0-3 these playoffs entering tonight. I literally have no idea what to expect. I want to say they can give them a good game and that the Warriors escape late. I also think they see what their NBA Finals match up padnuh out East did last night and they have that type of game(more from the beginning though as far as controlling). This is just a good game to watch and see and get a better number Live.
Nothing off the bat today...
If for some reason Cavs are at a good number, perhaps.
Lean Boston but can't pull trigger. I think it is a tight one.
Late game will tell us a lot. I think Houston gets the win to make a best of 3 but no way would I lay those points.
Busy day for me so no time to play but here and there if I do...
Back tomorrow...Happy Sunday:shake:
If for some reason Cavs are at a good number, perhaps.
Lean Boston but can't pull trigger. I think it is a tight one.
Late game will tell us a lot. I think Houston gets the win to make a best of 3 but no way would I lay those points.
Busy day for me so no time to play but here and there if I do...
Back tomorrow...Happy Sunday:shake:
Tonight I am starting with this and will move things around as I see fit if possible...
Houston +5.5 -110
Houston ML +190
Obviously one of my main goals would be to see Houston start hot and have a nice size lead in the latter stages of first quarter or early second quarter. If that happens, I should be able to get plus money on both ML's.
The spread play is my lean here as well and hopefully I can keep that play or perhaps find a middle or whatever. I'll be able to watch this whole game so that will make things much easier.
Obviously of the Spurs come roaring out of the gate and never are losing ats after the first handful of minutes I'll take my two units and tuck my tail between my legs(aka, 'take my medicine').
I still think this series is wide-open but you have to keep an open mind for each game and situation.
Houston +5.5 -110
Houston ML +190
Obviously one of my main goals would be to see Houston start hot and have a nice size lead in the latter stages of first quarter or early second quarter. If that happens, I should be able to get plus money on both ML's.
The spread play is my lean here as well and hopefully I can keep that play or perhaps find a middle or whatever. I'll be able to watch this whole game so that will make things much easier.
Obviously of the Spurs come roaring out of the gate and never are losing ats after the first handful of minutes I'll take my two units and tuck my tail between my legs(aka, 'take my medicine').
I still think this series is wide-open but you have to keep an open mind for each game and situation.
Well,
Last night was, um, interesting.
Through the live bets I did I ended up at +0.21 for the night. If the Rockets would have won that would have been a healthy amount more. Actually the best case was a Rockets win by 1, but that's why we cannot have nice things.
Tonight should be interesting. This series is chippy and fun. The games in Washington were a blowouts. I am sure the Bullets feel they should be up 3-1 or so in this series but here we are. I expect the Celtics to take some frustration out tonight but maybe the Bullets can use that game 6 experience in Atlanta as well as the first 3 quarters of each game in Boston so far as good mojo. We'll see. Busy day for me late afternoon on, so I'll just hope to maybe find something small to play ingame. I won't be forcing anything though.
Enjoy the game, hopefully it is a good one.
Last night was, um, interesting.
Through the live bets I did I ended up at +0.21 for the night. If the Rockets would have won that would have been a healthy amount more. Actually the best case was a Rockets win by 1, but that's why we cannot have nice things.
Tonight should be interesting. This series is chippy and fun. The games in Washington were a blowouts. I am sure the Bullets feel they should be up 3-1 or so in this series but here we are. I expect the Celtics to take some frustration out tonight but maybe the Bullets can use that game 6 experience in Atlanta as well as the first 3 quarters of each game in Boston so far as good mojo. We'll see. Busy day for me late afternoon on, so I'll just hope to maybe find something small to play ingame. I won't be forcing anything though.
Enjoy the game, hopefully it is a good one.
edou1x
Pretty much a regular
i've just discovered this guy, interesting articles for NHL/NBA
https://www.professormj.com/pages/free-nba-picks-for-may-10-2017-by-professor-mj
https://www.professormj.com/pages/free-nba-picks-for-may-10-2017-by-professor-mj
No prop bets for me but if I had to make just one prop bet tonight...
OVER
[TABLE="class: lines"]
<tbody>[TR="class: linesRow"]
[TD]Wed 5/10[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]4369 I.Thomas FT's made over 8½[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_96" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> +105 [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD]8:00PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]4370 I.Thomas FT's made under 8½[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_96" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> -135 [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
OVER
[TABLE="class: lines"]
<tbody>[TR="class: linesRow"]
[TD]Wed 5/10[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]4369 I.Thomas FT's made over 8½[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_96" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> +105 [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesRowBot"]
[TD]8:00PM[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]4370 I.Thomas FT's made under 8½[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_96" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); text-size-adjust: none;"> -135 [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Hulu
#3DownNation
So back 7-10 days ago we were discussing live betting and you prolly see me mentioning 4th quarter unders quite a bit so far in the playoffs. I When I say that, it could mean taking a number in 3rd quarter, between quarters or somewhere early in the 4th before Live betting comes down.
Last night was the perfect example. This much I know going in between the Wizards and Celtics...
-I want a blowout for a rather easy opportunity later
-Scotty Brooks doesn't ride starters too long and Washington bench is already below-average
-Boston has a lot of solid players on their bench but not too many guys who will light it up late.
-3 quarters of solid scoring already
Well, I wasn't able to watch much of the game last night working and whatnot. Plus, I was more interested in the Game 7's in the NHL. So, I kinda took my time. Once it became apparent to me that it was going to be around a 15-20 point game entering the 4th I started tracking the Over/Under...
At the end of 3q's it was 221.5. I honestly wasn't totally happy with this number and thought maybe the Wizards tried to push starting the 4th before giving up. So, I decided to hit refresh for the next 5-10 minutes. I finally started to see 224,224.5, 225 and 226 pop. The 4th started out with a bang scoring-wise. Well, this makes me even more confident as we have not had a drought period for the most part(washington 1q about it). I went to submit at 226 and it actually went to 227 as I hit submit. I took it for a standard unit. It never got higher so I let that ride. The 'closing' live number was 224 around the 5:30 mark of the game. I would have entertained a middle if it was 5.5 or more but that wasn't enough for me.
Now, the contra could have happened and we had a very slow start to the 4th quarter and I might have lost my value. This most likely would have made it a no play.
But, we got lucky and we'll take it.
Now, back to getting the best of that number. It landed on 224, and looking at the play by play later on I see Oubre missed a 3 at the buzzer which would have pushed the bet.
Hey, the ole SEMCON way "Without luck, I'd never lose"
Last night was the perfect example. This much I know going in between the Wizards and Celtics...
-I want a blowout for a rather easy opportunity later
-Scotty Brooks doesn't ride starters too long and Washington bench is already below-average
-Boston has a lot of solid players on their bench but not too many guys who will light it up late.
-3 quarters of solid scoring already
Well, I wasn't able to watch much of the game last night working and whatnot. Plus, I was more interested in the Game 7's in the NHL. So, I kinda took my time. Once it became apparent to me that it was going to be around a 15-20 point game entering the 4th I started tracking the Over/Under...
At the end of 3q's it was 221.5. I honestly wasn't totally happy with this number and thought maybe the Wizards tried to push starting the 4th before giving up. So, I decided to hit refresh for the next 5-10 minutes. I finally started to see 224,224.5, 225 and 226 pop. The 4th started out with a bang scoring-wise. Well, this makes me even more confident as we have not had a drought period for the most part(washington 1q about it). I went to submit at 226 and it actually went to 227 as I hit submit. I took it for a standard unit. It never got higher so I let that ride. The 'closing' live number was 224 around the 5:30 mark of the game. I would have entertained a middle if it was 5.5 or more but that wasn't enough for me.
Now, the contra could have happened and we had a very slow start to the 4th quarter and I might have lost my value. This most likely would have made it a no play.
But, we got lucky and we'll take it.
Now, back to getting the best of that number. It landed on 224, and looking at the play by play later on I see Oubre missed a 3 at the buzzer which would have pushed the bet.
Hey, the ole SEMCON way "Without luck, I'd never lose"
Game 6 in Houston hurt as I had S.A. pegged all series but seeing those ML's I tried to get cute in the game. I hit under in 4th, per usual in a blowout but still took a loss.
Actually middled last night with Boston +5 and Washington +2.5 but played only a unit both ways as I missed most of the game...lost a small total there as well...just finally got to watch the ending this morning...
We need a few days off before Game 7 there to kind of get a better feel for each teams emotions...
Played this just now...I said before playoffs GSW in 5 but I'll take the value here as I think 4 is attainable and there will be some opportunities to hedge a bit if need be...
WCF's-Series to end in 4 games +300 1.50-4.50 units
Actually middled last night with Boston +5 and Washington +2.5 but played only a unit both ways as I missed most of the game...lost a small total there as well...just finally got to watch the ending this morning...
We need a few days off before Game 7 there to kind of get a better feel for each teams emotions...
Played this just now...I said before playoffs GSW in 5 but I'll take the value here as I think 4 is attainable and there will be some opportunities to hedge a bit if need be...
WCF's-Series to end in 4 games +300 1.50-4.50 units
hugh613
Pretty much a regular
Hmm... I don't have much doubt that the Warriors advance, but not sure about a sweep. After all, remember all the hype on opening night about the Big Four, and the Spurs rolled in and put an end to that pretty fast. Admittedly, a few of the variables have changed, namely Tony Parker being out and the injury to Kawhi Leonard, but have to think the Spurs can at least win one of the games in San Antonio, if not steal one in Oakland. After all, the Warriors haven't really been tested to this point: rolled a Blazers team that plays zero defense, and exposed the Jazz as a team with neither offense nor defense. Same could be said of the Spurs, I suppose, but still...
Good luck ~BAR.
:beer4:
Good luck ~BAR.
:beer4:
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I like SA tt under 100. GL
gl to you wise.
H.R. Pufnstuf
Pretty much a regular
LOSS.
Noles4life
Pretty much a regular
Any # u have in mind u will be looking for
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