NBA ML dogs 2.1

[redbearde]

Okay,

initially I liked the Raptors yesterday. But news of getting Pau Gasol and getting rid of Kwame Brown has got to make the Lakers happier. At least Kwame won't be playing tonight. Not sure how that helps or hurts the backdoor cuts the Raptors love, but I do think it will HELP the perimeter defense the Lakers will need.

having said all that, the only play I could consider on this game at this point is either an over (205ish seems fair to me), or the Lakers ML. I happen to think 240 is a bit more than fair. Gotta give that some thought, especially with the Lakers historic winning rate of what...17 and 5 against the raptors? If any pair of guards outside of detroit can guard the raptors' guards, it'd be Fish and Kobe.

....Clippers.

I would love to play the clippers. problem. Half the team is injured. That's not an overstatement. At the end of the Hawks game, the Clips were down to 6 healthy players. SIX.

problem is that the fucking T'wolves are, well, the twolves.

linewise, at least, the Clips won and covered as 6pt faves at home against the twolves in december, and it's certainly of value to see them at +6.

but it's the t'wolves.

still...gotta consider it at 220.

Pacers at +150ish is garbage.
76ers at 170ish is garbage (in fact I'm considering the Magic chalk)

Heat at +150ish is interesting...especially against the Nets, but the Heat players keep dropping like flies. It's looking like Dwayne Wade will play tonight:

http://www.miamiherald.com/594/story/402622.html

but is that enough to overcome the individual styles of the Net big 3?

....I dunno. I'd prefer to have 2:1, but now that Wade's been announced as playing there's no way I see that.

Kings at +120 is garbage. I'm almost certainly going to play the Hornets' chalk.

The Bobcats at 3.5:1 to 4:1 seems like reasonable value to me, but I'm not sure I want to try fading the Warriors at home.

Knicks? I think not. Portland won't shoot that poorly again.

so I'm lookin at:

Lakers +240
Clippers +220
Heat +150ish
Magic chalk
Hornets chalk

not sure if/what I'll play, tho.

 

[divol]

I like your plays, all but Hornets and Heat.
My top three ML are Knicks, Lakers and Clips (if we are talking about the dogs of course).
Kings could have been a good option if it was 1:2 and the same for the Wizards.

 

[redbearde]

why do you dislike the Hornets as a play tonight?

the kings have dogshit for value at +120 at best.

The bullets DO play well at home, Caron should be back, and the Jazz have been shitty on the road....still, 2:1 would be stellar there. I somehow doubt we see that...

 

[redbearde]

Antonio Daniels is good to go tonight....that's something.

 

[SportsNut]

Lakers could have that wounded dog value being so shorthanded for this one and raps off a huge blowout.

Dont like LAC at all. First if Kaman and Maggs sit out again the key to LAC is clearly Thorntons play and well Minny can throw alot of forwards at him and like vs Char early fould could trouble could kep the youngster from making a difference. Whose better the banged up Clips or banged up or Bulls?? We saw what Minny did to them. The meeting in LAC earlier I had LAC and they didnt win that game till late and the final is misleading. It was back in the days of Minny playing real good for 3 quarters and looking like the Knicks in the 4thquarter!

I do think the Knicks HAVE A TON of value!

First thing is Randolph playing his old team . Second is Roy's injury. Now he wil play through it but he has said it hurts , not good for PORT. Third is look at PORT season schedule see any patterns??

L3
W4
L5
W1
L4
W13
L1
W4

Then the ROAD TRIP came...

L,W,L,W,L,W,L,L, W,L

So past 10 games 4-6 SU. They have 1 pt wins vs ATL and 2 pt OT win vs ATL. Plus beating NJ and Miami who might be worse then NYK certainly not better. Go back 6 games and they could be 0-6 if not for the ATL wins. How do they come out after chokcing away the game vs Cleveland?? We see alot of young teams just not show up mentally after blowing a game.

On paper tough to take but Blazers are not playing well with there best player HURTING. The Knicks have almost beat GSW and LAL but almost doesnt pay. When everyone thought they would lay down vs Utah they fought and hung around. Tonight is 4th in 6 but tmrw i worse 5th in 7 spot. A must win for NYK?? Real close to it IMO. Randolph wants to say FUCK YOU to PORT management and McMillan no doubt in mind.

 

[SportsNut]

I'll take Sac as a home pup as they are 8-3 ATS this season. NO is not healthy with Pargo starting and chucking. Its not that they lost to GSW its how they lost. Most of NO damage was done at home during there surge..beat Hou w/o Mac and the slumping Spurs which was there GOY in many ways since SA has long owned them. Home team 10-1 ATS l 11 meetings....

 

[divol]

why do you dislike the Hornets as a play tonight?

the kings have dogshit for value at +120 at best.

The bullets DO play well at home, Caron should be back, and the Jazz have been shitty on the road....still, 2:1 would be stellar there. I somehow doubt we see that...

I see Martin party on Pargo tonight and Hornets without Ely, Jackson and Peterson got too high line in the beginning.

 

[redbearde]

thanks for the thoughts guys. you've definitely given me pause on the Hornets.

 

[redbearde]

caron's not playing tonight. I still think the bullets have value at 2:1, but I won't be on them. I do have the

lakers at +252.84

 

[redbearde]

Clippers +250

 

[redbearde]

I do think the Knicks HAVE A TON of value!

First thing is Randolph playing his old team . Second is Roy's injury. Now he wil play through it but he has said it hurts , not good for PORT. Third is look at PORT season schedule see any patterns??

L3
W4
L5
W1
L4
W13
L1
W4

Then the ROAD TRIP came...

L,W,L,W,L,W,L,L, W,L

So past 10 games 4-6 SU. They have 1 pt wins vs ATL and 2 pt OT win vs ATL. Plus beating NJ and Miami who might be worse then NYK certainly not better. Go back 6 games and they could be 0-6 if not for the ATL wins. How do they come out after chokcing away the game vs Cleveland?? We see alot of young teams just not show up mentally after blowing a game.

On paper tough to take but Blazers are not playing well with there best player HURTING. The Knicks have almost beat GSW and LAL but almost doesnt pay. When everyone thought they would lay down vs Utah they fought and hung around. Tonight is 4th in 6 but tmrw i worse 5th in 7 spot. A must win for NYK?? Real close to it IMO. Randolph wants to say FUCK YOU to PORT management and McMillan no doubt in mind.

you make a LOT of very good points here. I think I might be able to get 3:1 if I wait around for a little while,

 

[redbearde]

Heat +140

 

[redbearde]

Lakers +252.84
Clippers +250
Heat +140
Knicks +290

I am impatient. that's my card. I have sympathy for the Bullets. No bet. GL tonight, gentlemen.

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks RED and GL ! I guess what I was trying to say and illustrated it more then making it clear was its better to fade a GOOD team when they are struggling abit rather then picking a "due" spot when there playing well..Ports not playing there best , Roy is hurt , NYK has been competitive and has the Randolph angle...will it workout I sur hope so but a nice spot to"gamble" I think

Its better to fade say the Yanks when they are 5-5 L10 games rather 10-0 .

On another note fucking Canisus ML would have been nice ! Up 27 at half catching 7 today ! Funny how my book offered all the CBB MLs except that one.

I am pretty much rooting for all the LATE GAME ML DOGS..:cheers: