NBA ML dogs 12/31-1/3

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
what I'm lookin at for tomorrow...

A play on the Bulls would be great, but 2.5? that sucks ass for value. If folks bet up the Magic, then I may well play the Bulls, but I want at least 1.5:1, and I'd rather have another quarter on top.

pacers and bobcats
:36_11_6:

bucks and pistons - not with my money...might as well wipe my ass with it.

Warriors @ Rockets - Warriors a dog. okay. sure. With T Mac out, I'll very likely take a shot on the Nelson's guys. The rockets haven't changed their stripes after big wins at memphis and hosting toronto. Warriors have won the last 3 meetings including AT houston as a 7.5pt dog last year.

so yeah...again, at 1.5:1, I'll take it. more is better.

Blazers @ Jazz - yes. Not sure what my options for value will be, but I expect 3:1. I think I should get more than that. and if AK47 gets in the lineup, then Portland will get even better numbers, but my guess is he sits out another.

Raptors...not fading the hornets right now. ferget it.

Twolves @ Clippers - here's a winnable game for each team. I love taking the underdog in shit-team games. Al Jefferson might be able to go point for point with Kaman....who knows? if I can put together a 4 game card, then this'll be one of em.

76ers @ sonics.......I can't imagine the sonics being favored, but if they are, then I'll definitely be on the 76ers.

no line yet because the statuses of Durant and Wilcox are both up in the air.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/clubhouse_Injuries.aspx?sport=NBA&majteam=SEA

Chris Wilcox left Saturday's game with 2:07 left in the third period because of a sprained left knee and did not return. His status also is uncertain. "I just hope it's nothing serious because I want to be able to help my teammates. I am going to get X-rays tomorrow, so hopefully everything will come back negative tomorrow and I'll be back on the court," Wilcox said.

Kevin Durant's status is uncertain for Monday's home game against Philadelphia after he left Saturday's contest with a finger injury. "I just ran into somebody and sprained my finger. It was kind of hurting more than it usually does," Durant said. "I wanted to play but our trainer just wanted me to sit out for the rest of the game." X-rays were negative, but Seattle held Durant out the final three quarters as a precaution.
Click to expand...

My guess is Durant plays and Wilcox doesn't. In any event, I think the 76ers will win the game.
 
so I'm lookin at

Bulls
Warriors
Blazers
Timberwolves

and the 76ers depending on what they do with the line.

The Bulls and Warriors are more the "I expect them to win" style, and the Blazers and T'wolves are more the "hey, let's take a shot at this value" style.
 
thanks. I like em too.

Well, I couldn't lay off em even as a fave.

76ers pk -115

and I have offers up on the others.
 
bulls never got up to where I wanted it, so I didn't play it. phooey.

I do have Portland at 274.5. Good thing, too, cus the line is up to 3:1 now.

damnit.
 
thanks.

not sure how when I have an offer for GSW at 154...and the close recorded at SBR is -156........I still somehow don't get a matched bet.

feeling kinda hosed by that...
 
yeah. a sweep the wrong way is tough to eat.

heh.

hey, it's been a good week. I shoulda made for damned sure I had GSW. alas.
 
big card on wednesday. we'll see who's still hung over.

some things that strike me initially...


-6 is too low for the Magic hosting the Nets. Maybe the Nets are getting healthy, and maybe the young guys in the middle will be able to contain Dwight. But as usual for the magic, the key is whether or not they hit their 3s. If they do, then they'll win by 20. If not, then they may win by a bucket, or they may lose. Very unlikely that Orlando gets blown out at home, and I'm not too keen on laying chalk nowadays in general......so no play for me.

pistons @ washington
:36_11_6:

bulls as a dog, I'll play. The bobcats haven't shown shit imo that warrants them being a fave here.

Hawks @ Cavs....abcs will like this. at 2:1, I'll be all over the hawks. I do think Lerbon will want to play well after the holiday, but who the fuck knows if the rest of the team will bother. and who knows? maybe Larry Hughes will show up for the other team. again.

Grizzlies @ Pacers - honestly, I don't see why the pacers are this big of a fave, and I'll probably play the ML dog. I'd do it the other way in Memphis, too. +7 ought to yield something like 280 or 300......and while I'm not sure I'll see that, I don't think I can let 3:1 go by without giving it a try between these two. Neither is playing well right now, and I like the dog in these. .....course it worked out so well for me on Monday with the Twolves...
:hang:

Rockets @ Celtics - Cs will win. Rafer may sit out, so a play on the under may well be absofuckinglutely necessary.

Bucks @ Heat - oh please oh please give me another team as a dog in Miami. PRETTY PLEASE.

Kings @ Knicks - normally I'd say that since starbury is playing and crawford dinged up that this would be an autofade, but Jamal is apparently feeling better, and obviously Artest is out for a while......so I'll probably lay off this one unless it gets stupid high. And it likely won't.

Blazers @ Twolves - -5 is a lot of road chalk. except that the timberwolves will be playing in this game. How much sucking will minny do? will they suck enough to lose by 4, or will they suck enough to lose by 34? again? who knows?

Warriors @ Mavs - revenge or does Nelson just HAVE the mavs number? I rather think this is a game the Mavs might turn their season around with. If they lose it, then I think they'll lose a lot more games soon afterward.....

76ers @ Jazz - :down2:

Hornets @ Clippers - not at 4.5. not enough.

so I'm lookin at:
Bulls
Hawks
Grizz
Bucks
Warriors

Bulls and Bucks would be what I think is the better team, and the others are value shots I might take. The Hawks might just be the better team, too, but abcs would know more about that.

:cheers:
 
Grizzlies +240

this is GARBAGE. Should have 40 cents more, damnit, but the dog seems to hold interest in this one...
 
Mavs have the revenge already. we'll see what they do this time.

Warriors are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Dallas.
Warriors are 22-5-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
Underdog is 21-6-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Golden State

Warriors +201.88
 
against the queens without artest, I think perhaps they should. course if the line keeps rising, I may have to play the ML out of general principle.
 
Looking like an outstanding night tonight Red. Your hard work being rewarded!

:tiphat:
 
always nice to get rewarded. Sorry about the Kings, bro. The Knicks are apparently capable of looking like the Twolves on any given night, too.

just gotta remember that I don't try necessarily to pick winners as much as I try to pick lines with value in case they win.

that's why I kick myself so hard when I get 280 on the blazers and the line shoots up to 350.....

anyway, 3 wins already. definitely a great night. If GSW wins, then it'll be even better.

:smiley_acbe:
 
after last night's great night, I was thinking of taking tonight off, but after this line kept going up....I gotta seriously consider taking Portland tonight.
 
Portland is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Trail Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
Trail Blazers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.

Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

Interesting... I have liked the Bulls recently. They've been playing better, but they still have bouts of No Scoring, and they really did rely on the Bobcats sucking themselves off last night in 2H.

Since Christmas, they have won 3 of 5, but do recall that this was against Charlotte, New York, and Milwaukee. Granted, they played quite well against the Magic and came up short in OT, and they got spanked by the Bulls on the 26th.

Last night, Roy and Aldridge both played almost 38 minutes each.

Bulls starters played this many:

G Kirk Hinrich 36:54
G Chris Duhon 22:30
F Joe Smith 24:21
F Luol Deng 37:10
C Ben Wallace 36:49
Ben Gordon played 36:36

one thing folks might have missed in thoughts on this game is that it's 4th in 5 for both teams, and both teams traveled after last night. But get this, Portland actually had less travel going from Minny to Chicago (400 miles) than Chicago did going from Charlotte to Chicago (750 miles).

nonetheless, it'll be a tough game for either side, and getting odds with what I think is the better team is the way I like to bet. Still, the line is going up, and I'm thinking I'll wait for a while longer.
 
there's also this:

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/basketball/bulls/724291,CST-SPT-bullnt03.article

''Over the last three games we've established somewhat of a rotation,'' Boylan said. ''Maybe right now we're playing guys a little too much, maybe too long. We talked about that when I took over, that some of the main players were going to have to play longer minutes because our season is starting to slip away a little bit and we need our main guys to come through."
Click to expand...

maybe in a 4th in 5 the extra minutes will catch up to em.

in any event, I like the value. up to 165 at MB now...
 
one major stat that I see in Chicago's favor is the rebounds, especially offensive rebounds.

Portland 9.9 offensive rebounds per game
Chicago 13.8 offensive rebounds per game

thing is........with the FG% looking like this:

Portland 46.1%
Chicago 41.9%

perhaps that explains the rebounds...heh.
 
Portlands big are soft. They will stand outside and shoot jumpers. Thus not many offensive rebounds. Aldridge, Jones and Frye live on the perimeter they are allergic to the paint. Only one who boards is Pryzbilla
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
since Skiles got kicked to the curb, CHC's shooting % is 46.4
Click to expand...

against milwaukee, ny, and charlotte, don't you think anyone's would be? They did shoot well against Orlando, but the Magic shot better, and they barely got over 40% against the Spurs (34/83).

so perhaps the last 5 games are skewed a bit?

and perhaps not. It's an odds thing to me. I try to make it worthwhile to take a bet rather than to win every one. What do you think fair value on this one is?
 
i dont know , but i'm sure he surrendered to a leathermask and a whip
while sporting high heels showing off his painted toenails............
 
red - CHC scored 91 @Charlotte with Skiles, 109 @Charlotte without him. His exit definitely helps that team's internal energy, so irrespective of opponent I'd expect their numbers to get better.

I put forward my thoughts on this game I BAR's thread. Portland is 4-10 on the road, and has a long trip coming up in the middle of this month. CHC is the 1st of 8 Eastern road games they're to play in total in Jan. (they are 5-6 vs the East, 13-7 vs the West) and I'll guess at best they go 3-5 SU (even 2-6). I personally don't expect anyone to make money blindly betting them. No team has a performance arc last forever in the NBA. Lulls always follow peaks, and Portland's schedule in the near future is very conducive to furnishing that lull off their long winning streak.
 
spockgato said:
i dont know , but i'm sure he surrendered to a leathermask and a whip
while sporting high heels showing off his painted toenails............
Click to expand...

why YES!

I just saw it on the Hallmark channel. he was screaming for PENIS in Japanese while pretending to be a Korean in 1951.

:tiphat:
 
san antonio/denver have combined for 9 straight unders .
last 10 meetings have not gone over 196 .

any ideas on this one rebearde ?
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
red - CHC scored 91 @Charlotte with Skiles, 109 @Charlotte without him. His exit definitely helps that team's internal energy, so irrespective of opponent I'd expect their numbers to get better.

I put forward my thoughts on this game I BAR's thread. portland is 4-10 on the road, and has a long trip coming up in the middle of this month. CHC is the 1st of 8 Eastern road games they're to play in total in Jan. (they are 5-6 vs the East, 13-7 vs the West) and I'll guess at best they go 3-5 SU (even 2-6). I personally don't expect anyone to make money blindly betting them. No team has a performance arc last forever in the NBA. Lulls always follow peaks, and Portland's schedule in the near future is very conducive to furnishing that lull off their long winning streak.
Click to expand...

With skiles they scored 101 @ NY on the 14th. Without him they scored 100.

I read your thoughts in BAR's thread. and I'm not blindly betting them - I only do that on even days of the month.

I don't try to predict when a team's win streak will end or when their lull will be. I try to figure the likelihood of a win today and then compare the amount I get back for it. That's why I bet the warriors last night. I thought they had better than 2:1 chance at it...yet boy did they lose. In this case, at worst, I think the blazers have a 45% chance at a win, and I think they're the better team.

I'm not saying, "the blazers will win" here. I'm saying I like the odds I have on it.

so, what do you think fair value on the blazers is here?

2.5:1? 3:1?

more?
 
spockgato said:
san antonio/denver have combined for 9 straight unders .
last 10 meetings have not gone over 196 .

any ideas on this one rebearde ?
Click to expand...

we dunno if Ginobli's going to play.
we dunno how effective he is if he does play with the brace on his finger.
we dunno how interested the Nugs will be in defense tonight (opponents' lack of D effort is the only reason the Spurs break 100 - they don't try).

we dunno if we're looking at a jumpshot fest or a layup trackmeet.

this is one of those that I just refuse to bet on. If anything, I might do the ML dog, but the key guy coming off the bench is a staple. Imagine Chicago without Ben Gordon. I want to see Manu play before I take a shot on the Spurs......

GL if you do it, and I promise to scowl at whatever you bet so you'll win it.

;)
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
with Skiles at New York they scored 78
without him at New York they scored 100
Click to expand...

look, if you're going to use that sort of reasoning, it's better to not ignore the rest of the information.

10/31/2007 at New Jersey L 112 - 103 L (1½) O (187) Recap
11/02/2007 vs Philadelphia L 96 - 85 L (-8½) U (189½) Recap
11/03/2007 at Milwaukee L 78 - 72 L (-4) U (193) Recap
11/06/2007 vs LA Clippers L 97 - 91 L (-8) U (194½) Recap
11/08/2007 vs Detroit W 97 - 93 W (-1) O (182) Recap
11/10/2007 vs Toronto L 101 - 71 L (-6½) U (190) Recap
11/15/2007 at Phoenix L 112 - 102 L (8½) O (204) Recap
11/17/2007 at LA Clippers W 92 - 73 W (-3) U (187½) Recap
11/18/2007 at LA Lakers L 106 - 78 L (5½) U (197½) Recap
11/20/2007 at Denver L 112 - 91 L (8½) O (201½) Recap
11/24/2007 at New York L 85 - 78 L (-2½) U (186½) Recap
11/25/2007 at Toronto L 93 - 78 L (4½) U (184½) Recap
11/27/2007 vs Atlanta W 90 - 78 W (-5½) U (182½) Recap
12/01/2007 vs Charlotte W 111 - 95 W (-7½) O (183) Recap
12/03/2007 vs Dallas L 103 - 98 L (3) O (188) Recap
12/05/2007 at Charlotte W 91 - 82 W (-1) U (186) Recap
12/07/2007 at Detroit W 98 - 91 W (8) O (183½) Recap
12/08/2007 vs Boston L 92 - 81 L (5½) U (184) Recap
12/11/2007 vs Seattle W 123 - 96 W (-8½) O (192) Recap
12/12/2007 at Indiana L 117 - 102 L (2) O (198½) Recap
12/14/2007 vs New York W 101 - 96 L (-10½) O (187½) Recap
12/18/2007 vs LA Lakers L 103 - 91 L (-2) U (202½) Recap
12/19/2007 at Washington W 95 - 84 W (5½) U (196½) Recap
12/21/2007 at Boston L 107 - 82 L (9½) O (181) Recap
12/22/2007 vs Houston L 116 - 98 L (1½) O (183½) Recap
12/26/2007 at San Antonio L 94 - 79 L (9) U (186) Recap
12/28/2007 vs Milwaukee W 103 - 99 L (-6) O (191½) Recap
12/30/2007 at New York W 100 - 83 W (-2½) U (190½) Recap
12/31/2007 vs Orlando L 112 - 110 W (3) O (196) Recap
01/02/2008 at Charlotte W 109 - 97 W (-1) O (190½) Recap
Click to expand...

and if your point is having something to do with it being AT new york, then you should know that the bulls are at home tonight.
 
I figured if I had a competitive game going into the 4th Q, then I'd be in damned good position - the blazers have finished games well pretty much all year. Of course it's not perfect, so they may very well lose.

but I thought the blazers had a lot better than a 30% chance to win, and that chance skyrockets if they keep it close going into the 4th.

:shake:
 
spockgato said:
san antonio/denver have combined for 9 straight unders .
last 10 meetings have not gone over 196 .

any ideas on this one rebearde ?
Click to expand...

I have a new idea on this one. Ask someone competent to answer it. Man...
2:17 to go in the 3rd and it's 55-56.....CRAZY.

heh...I hope you played it, spock.
 
redbearde said:
and if your point is having something to do with it being AT new york, then you should know that the bulls are at home tonight.
Click to expand...

it was, as I could have provided CHC's score vs CHA at home as well, but only made their at Charlotte comparisons. Those were were the only 2 games they've played since Skiles departure that had venue specific comparisons available to games before/after Skiles demise. So the fact the Bulls were at home tonight was irrelevant to my intention of showing their improvement under the same venue specific conditions.
 
okay. I see. And I do see improvement, but not enough. They need a low post player. Obviously Joe Smith is a stud, but they need a bruiser that can actually get a few buckets down low (Wallace doesn't count) so they can get some open outside shots. That's the gunshot wound in their scheme right now.

Also, the team was improving before they canned skiles. From november 27 to december 22, they were 7-6 with 2 losses to boston and even a win over detroit.

since they canned skiles and before tonight, they had 3 wins against the bucks, the knicks, and the bobcats. They've also lost to the spurs, the magic....and now the blazers.

they needed to win this one, Joe Smith played like an all star (Ben Gordon was amazing as usual), and the rest of the team made their brilliance turn into the team shooting 41.3% from the field and 16.7% from the 3pt line.

that's pretty much their year's average from the field. and they really did need to get this win if they're going to approach being a good team this year.
 
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