redbearde
Pretty much a regular
these are largely my own musings. I would love feedback.
Milk @ Atlanta
DuY has an interesting thought about how the Hawks will be emotionally busted up after they folded up early against what should have been a tired Sonics club. Seattle squeaked out the victory. I'm not sure what to make of this from a side standpoint; I think either team has a good shot at the win. Both of these teams will be fresh off of not playing since saturday, and both teams will want to score early and often. I'm leaning toward an over play here...depending on the number. I expect a total score between 210-214, and whether or not I play this game depends on the numbers I see at pinny and Cris. If it's at 205ish, I'll take over.
Denver @ Miami
Denver is in the midst of a road trip, and Wedensday at Orlando will be 4th in 6. However, the Nugs have Monday off before hitting the court at Miami. I still think Miami is generally out of shape - I'll think this for another month or so, I guess - and I think Denver can run and shoot all around this bunch. There's also a good inside presence with Camby even though Kenyon Martin would be nice to have against Shaq (is he playing?). I am concerned about Denver's ability to cover Wade, course this is always a cocnern.....but between Najera's middle linebacker ability and (believe it or not) Julius Hodge's defensive skills....he does have some....Denver might just be able to hold him to a less than superhuman point total - don't rip me too hard on Julius Hodge.....he can't shoot worth a manfuck, but he can play obnoxious tight defense. I wouldn't say Carmelo can match Wade shot for shot, but the guy can make some spectacular plays. I expect Miami to be favored, and if I can get a tolerable ML dog, I'll take the road nuggies against the Heat...yet again.
Charlotte at New Orleans
New Orleans just finished a west coast road trip...Golden state - LOSS, Portland - LOSS, off, Los Angeles Clips - LOSS, off, Home hosting Charlotte. The hornets are probably still mentally tired from that trip (though not so much physically), though they've had a day off at home. Charlotte's been losing, too, but except for the Celtics game which went down to the last second shot by a rookie in OT, they haven't really been close. They've also had a day off between games...til tomorrow when they play AT San Antonio. I will be watching this game because I think the matchup should be exciting. Sean May sucks, though, so Charlotte will be playing 4 on 5 when his useless ass is in there. Both of these teams like to go inside and score 40+ buckets in the paint, and those are games I really enjoy. Except for the excessive use of Sean May, I see a lot of similarity between these teams. Both have young and able PGs in Paul and Felton, and there are some great forwards (not Sean May) that pound the ball on the inside. Both like to position well for rebounds instead of getting a head start back on defense. Neither team has an all star sort of player like Dwayne Wade, Lebron, Kobe, or Carmelo. Again, depending on the number I might play either team as a dog. I think the Hornets are a bit better due to having Chris Paul and not having Sean May. So I might take a shorter number on the Hornets (especially at home) than I would on the kitties. I might need 150 or more for Charlotte and 130 or so for NO/OKC. I have no idea what this line will look like, so I'm not making any predictions.
Portland @ Minnesota
Twolves play off 2 days off. Portland has Monday off. Portland has gotten way too fucking comfortable with attempting the miracle comeback. They're winning so far this year, so the value on them might not stay as consistent as it was last year...but the Twolves seem to be doing the same ol same ol. Just because you have Kevin Garnett on your team doesn't mean you can perpetually keep your head all up in your ass instead of in the game. The Blazers start a long roadtrip tonight, and I expect they'll come out and try particularly hard to get going on the right track. They'll have to get Randolph a lot of touches to see if they can both get him good points, but also get KG in a bit of foul trouble. I would expect Minny to be favored here, but I'm not so sure they should be. They keep cycling through quality players up there, but they can't seem to put together a cohesive unit. After seeing Sacramento play, I honestly don't understand how the hell this team beat the Kings. Kevin Martin is fucking incredible. Anyway, Portland matches up well with this bunch except for the KG, but if Minny relies on KG instead of team play and ball movement, Portland will almost certainly win even though Garnett will get 40pts. I would like over 180 for Portland, ut I would probably play it over 140.
Milk @ Atlanta
DuY has an interesting thought about how the Hawks will be emotionally busted up after they folded up early against what should have been a tired Sonics club. Seattle squeaked out the victory. I'm not sure what to make of this from a side standpoint; I think either team has a good shot at the win. Both of these teams will be fresh off of not playing since saturday, and both teams will want to score early and often. I'm leaning toward an over play here...depending on the number. I expect a total score between 210-214, and whether or not I play this game depends on the numbers I see at pinny and Cris. If it's at 205ish, I'll take over.
Denver @ Miami
Denver is in the midst of a road trip, and Wedensday at Orlando will be 4th in 6. However, the Nugs have Monday off before hitting the court at Miami. I still think Miami is generally out of shape - I'll think this for another month or so, I guess - and I think Denver can run and shoot all around this bunch. There's also a good inside presence with Camby even though Kenyon Martin would be nice to have against Shaq (is he playing?). I am concerned about Denver's ability to cover Wade, course this is always a cocnern.....but between Najera's middle linebacker ability and (believe it or not) Julius Hodge's defensive skills....he does have some....Denver might just be able to hold him to a less than superhuman point total - don't rip me too hard on Julius Hodge.....he can't shoot worth a manfuck, but he can play obnoxious tight defense. I wouldn't say Carmelo can match Wade shot for shot, but the guy can make some spectacular plays. I expect Miami to be favored, and if I can get a tolerable ML dog, I'll take the road nuggies against the Heat...yet again.
Charlotte at New Orleans
New Orleans just finished a west coast road trip...Golden state - LOSS, Portland - LOSS, off, Los Angeles Clips - LOSS, off, Home hosting Charlotte. The hornets are probably still mentally tired from that trip (though not so much physically), though they've had a day off at home. Charlotte's been losing, too, but except for the Celtics game which went down to the last second shot by a rookie in OT, they haven't really been close. They've also had a day off between games...til tomorrow when they play AT San Antonio. I will be watching this game because I think the matchup should be exciting. Sean May sucks, though, so Charlotte will be playing 4 on 5 when his useless ass is in there. Both of these teams like to go inside and score 40+ buckets in the paint, and those are games I really enjoy. Except for the excessive use of Sean May, I see a lot of similarity between these teams. Both have young and able PGs in Paul and Felton, and there are some great forwards (not Sean May) that pound the ball on the inside. Both like to position well for rebounds instead of getting a head start back on defense. Neither team has an all star sort of player like Dwayne Wade, Lebron, Kobe, or Carmelo. Again, depending on the number I might play either team as a dog. I think the Hornets are a bit better due to having Chris Paul and not having Sean May. So I might take a shorter number on the Hornets (especially at home) than I would on the kitties. I might need 150 or more for Charlotte and 130 or so for NO/OKC. I have no idea what this line will look like, so I'm not making any predictions.
Portland @ Minnesota
Twolves play off 2 days off. Portland has Monday off. Portland has gotten way too fucking comfortable with attempting the miracle comeback. They're winning so far this year, so the value on them might not stay as consistent as it was last year...but the Twolves seem to be doing the same ol same ol. Just because you have Kevin Garnett on your team doesn't mean you can perpetually keep your head all up in your ass instead of in the game. The Blazers start a long roadtrip tonight, and I expect they'll come out and try particularly hard to get going on the right track. They'll have to get Randolph a lot of touches to see if they can both get him good points, but also get KG in a bit of foul trouble. I would expect Minny to be favored here, but I'm not so sure they should be. They keep cycling through quality players up there, but they can't seem to put together a cohesive unit. After seeing Sacramento play, I honestly don't understand how the hell this team beat the Kings. Kevin Martin is fucking incredible. Anyway, Portland matches up well with this bunch except for the KG, but if Minny relies on KG instead of team play and ball movement, Portland will almost certainly win even though Garnett will get 40pts. I would like over 180 for Portland, ut I would probably play it over 140.
