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NBA ML Dogs 11.14 look ahead discussion...

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
these are largely my own musings. I would love feedback.

Milk @ Atlanta

DuY has an interesting thought about how the Hawks will be emotionally busted up after they folded up early against what should have been a tired Sonics club. Seattle squeaked out the victory. I'm not sure what to make of this from a side standpoint; I think either team has a good shot at the win. Both of these teams will be fresh off of not playing since saturday, and both teams will want to score early and often. I'm leaning toward an over play here...depending on the number. I expect a total score between 210-214, and whether or not I play this game depends on the numbers I see at pinny and Cris. If it's at 205ish, I'll take over.

Denver @ Miami

Denver is in the midst of a road trip, and Wedensday at Orlando will be 4th in 6. However, the Nugs have Monday off before hitting the court at Miami. I still think Miami is generally out of shape - I'll think this for another month or so, I guess - and I think Denver can run and shoot all around this bunch. There's also a good inside presence with Camby even though Kenyon Martin would be nice to have against Shaq (is he playing?). I am concerned about Denver's ability to cover Wade, course this is always a cocnern.....but between Najera's middle linebacker ability and (believe it or not) Julius Hodge's defensive skills....he does have some....Denver might just be able to hold him to a less than superhuman point total - don't rip me too hard on Julius Hodge.....he can't shoot worth a manfuck, but he can play obnoxious tight defense. I wouldn't say Carmelo can match Wade shot for shot, but the guy can make some spectacular plays. I expect Miami to be favored, and if I can get a tolerable ML dog, I'll take the road nuggies against the Heat...yet again.

Charlotte at New Orleans

New Orleans just finished a west coast road trip...Golden state - LOSS, Portland - LOSS, off, Los Angeles Clips - LOSS, off, Home hosting Charlotte. The hornets are probably still mentally tired from that trip (though not so much physically), though they've had a day off at home. Charlotte's been losing, too, but except for the Celtics game which went down to the last second shot by a rookie in OT, they haven't really been close. They've also had a day off between games...til tomorrow when they play AT San Antonio. I will be watching this game because I think the matchup should be exciting. Sean May sucks, though, so Charlotte will be playing 4 on 5 when his useless ass is in there. Both of these teams like to go inside and score 40+ buckets in the paint, and those are games I really enjoy. Except for the excessive use of Sean May, I see a lot of similarity between these teams. Both have young and able PGs in Paul and Felton, and there are some great forwards (not Sean May) that pound the ball on the inside. Both like to position well for rebounds instead of getting a head start back on defense. Neither team has an all star sort of player like Dwayne Wade, Lebron, Kobe, or Carmelo. Again, depending on the number I might play either team as a dog. I think the Hornets are a bit better due to having Chris Paul and not having Sean May. So I might take a shorter number on the Hornets (especially at home) than I would on the kitties. I might need 150 or more for Charlotte and 130 or so for NO/OKC. I have no idea what this line will look like, so I'm not making any predictions.

Portland @ Minnesota

Twolves play off 2 days off. Portland has Monday off. Portland has gotten way too fucking comfortable with attempting the miracle comeback. They're winning so far this year, so the value on them might not stay as consistent as it was last year...but the Twolves seem to be doing the same ol same ol. Just because you have Kevin Garnett on your team doesn't mean you can perpetually keep your head all up in your ass instead of in the game. The Blazers start a long roadtrip tonight, and I expect they'll come out and try particularly hard to get going on the right track. They'll have to get Randolph a lot of touches to see if they can both get him good points, but also get KG in a bit of foul trouble. I would expect Minny to be favored here, but I'm not so sure they should be. They keep cycling through quality players up there, but they can't seem to put together a cohesive unit. After seeing Sacramento play, I honestly don't understand how the hell this team beat the Kings. Kevin Martin is fucking incredible. Anyway, Portland matches up well with this bunch except for the KG, but if Minny relies on KG instead of team play and ball movement, Portland will almost certainly win even though Garnett will get 40pts. I would like over 180 for Portland, ut I would probably play it over 140.
 
Chicago @ Dallas

I don't give a fuck. I have no idea what the hell is going on with Dallas, so unless someone comes up with about 6 very good reasons to play this game, I'm just going to move on. Reason #1 might be Ben Wallace. I'm open to others.

San Antonio @ Houston

San Antonio has had 2 days off after playing the Knicks on Saturday. Houston beat down the Heat and then have a day off Monday. Okay, San Antonio won by 9. That's great. But this is the NY Knicks who suck absolute ass so far this year, and the Spurs WERE ahead by 20 in that game....then with 3 minutes left the Knicks pulled within 1 at 92-93. Sure, the knicks still lost because, well, they suck, but this was not a great outing for the Spurs. It wasn't another day off as we mnight expect, and after that sortof scare, you know they got back into practice with some vigor, and I expect they'll want to make something of a statement for themselves in this Houston game. Houston just finished utterly crushing the Heat. They're on a 4 fame win-streak. Yao and McGrady are both playing some great ball, and the addition of that duke defensive cheating fucker Shane Battier will only help for defending Timmy and/or a driving guard like Ginobli and Parker. I respect the spurs (4 game winstreak themselves), but I think the edge goes to the rockets this time. Unless I get 160, though, I'm not sure i can play the Rockets this game. And I'm not so sure they'll offer that.

LA Clippers @ Utah.

Utah had 2 days off. Clippers are having a 5 day vacation if you include the crushing victory over the Hornets. They won't be able to do that to the Jazz. I will likely do nothing with this game. If I can get a significant number for the Clips, I still may not be able to take it. The Jazz are pretty damned dominant at home. overinflated balls my ass....I do think the Clips will have trouble dominating the inside against boozer & co. ......if Utah is inexplicably the dog, then I'll be on that.

Toronto @ Golden St

Shoot. Out. Toronto is also in dire need of a win, and they can absolutely manage one here. What i do will depend on the number...GSW isn't dependable themselves, so it may be quite a short number, but I think 2:1 or better isn't asking for too much, and if it's there, then I'll take it.

bout time for todays games to start. GL on your bets folks.
 
I caught 209. Now watch it hit 205.

Okay, I have the following:

Milk/Hawks Over 204 (+103)
Nuggets +178
Bobcats +7 (-101)
Trailblazers +300
Toronto/GSW Over 209 (-110)

GL to us on the GSW game.
 
redbearde, very good insight on these games tomorrow. Well I'm in total agreement with you on Denver and Portland, I've played them too.

I'm still in fade Miami mode in the right spots at least until Jason Williams comes back. It's pretty clear that most of the time Wade is having to do much himself. Denver has won 3 of the last 4 against the Heat, including 2 within a week in December last year. I think the Nuggets have "found themselves" (for now) with the two road wins and are in good shape to keep it going here. Wednesday against Orlando might be another story though.

I have the same feelings about Minnesota. They're one of the teams I always love to fade. Portland is pretty impressive so far this year, especially Randolph averaging 27 a game. So this one represents definite value at +300. Recent history between these teams favors the Blazers as they've beaten the Wolves 3 times in a row, including one at Minny last year. The Blazers ML is certainly the only play to make on them since most of the time when they lose on the road they get blown out. So even if I played underdog spreads I wouldn't play Portland +8. I think they either win or go down by double digits.

Updated ML dog record after Sonics win tonight: 13-19 +3.54 units

Tuesday plays so far:

Denver +178
Portland +300
 
I'm actually considering Chicago for tomorrow, redbearde. Also, Toronto and maybe San Antonio as a short dog. I'll see where that line moves.

Alright, gotta hit the sack but I'll be back tomorrow to talk more about rest of the games tomorrow.
:shake:
 
I agree with Portland ml but would back it up with Portland plus points first half. This avoids the fourth quarter fouling and I looked at the last 10 home games that Minn won last year and it appears from that that they only cover first half and then win as a small spread favorite or getting plus points in first half. gl
 
Paul OWNS Felton... he is Felton's daddy it's not even close. No one on CHA can stay in front of Paul... I love the Hornets tomorrow... They have the bodies to to contact the bigs on CHA easily...

Like everything else...
 
DuY! said:
Gl.

BTW, NEne Is questionable as well. Think denver will have a hard time containing shaq.

That's what Najera's unquestionable linebacker skills are for. If nothing else he can rabbit punch the big guy in the nuts.

:shake:
 
Inspekdah said:
Paul OWNS Felton... he is Felton's daddy it's not even close. No one on CHA can stay in front of Paul... I love the Hornets tomorrow... They have the bodies to to contact the bigs on CHA easily...

Like everything else...

I don't have any delusions about Charlotte beating the Hornets. And I agree, Paul is better than Felton. 7 pts is a lot, though, and I think perhaps the kitties can keep it within that number.

If I lose this one and win the other 4, I'll be happybearde.

'an_horse'
 
tuck321 said:
I agree with Portland ml but would back it up with Portland plus points first half. This avoids the fourth quarter fouling and I looked at the last 10 home games that Minn won last year and it appears from that that they only cover first half and then win as a small spread favorite or getting plus points in first half. gl

I don't understand. Once again, slower, and with pictures so my drug induced stupor doesn't cloud it all up.

.....adowhat now?
 
macdamn said:
I'm actually considering Chicago for tomorrow, redbearde. Also, Toronto and maybe San Antonio as a short dog. I'll see where that line moves.

Alright, gotta hit the sack but I'll be back tomorrow to talk more about rest of the games tomorrow.
:shake:

buddy I need to hear your reasoning on Chicago. I only have the 1 reason so far....need 5 more.

As for San Antonio........wtf? a Dog? Now I don't know what to do with that. It's like seeing Portland favored by 6. MY WORLD IS TOPSY TURVY!!!!!
 
oh, my record in the NBA...

ML dogs: 13-17, 43.33%, +6.76 units.
had I played spreads, 18-12, +4.8 units.

30 is statistically significant, and I'm much closer to 40% than the insane 80% I started with. Hope no one tailed me on the losing streak....in any event, the wins and losses seem to have settled into reasonable right now. Won 2 of my last 6. I hope to get at least one tonight.

GL guys. Win some money today.
 
dont worry About That streak:

i cant imagine That ANYONE was Tailing YOU For ANY reason.





naturally Just Giving You some Friendly shit.

Anyway -- Good luck with Tonights session. And keep in mind:

THE CLEAR HAS NO ENGRAMS.





'an_horse'
 
Redbearde, re Chicago I see the line is down to +158 from +200. At +200 I was considering them but at 158 I think I'll pass.
But my main reason for liking them was their rebounding performance against Indiana. They outrebounded the Pacers 51-28, including 24 offensive boards. This allowed them to take 16 more shots. So they had a poor shooting night at 38% yet still won by 9 points. That's pretty impressive to me. It shows they are capable of winning despite not playing well, thanks to Wallace and Deng working in the paint. Now you can argue that outside of O'Neal that Indiana is pretty soft in the frontline but still, rarely do you see that type of rebounding differential in a game.
But they have been pretty up and down so far this year, so maybe best to lay off of the Bulls until we see them gain some consistency. And at 158 I think I'll pass today.:shake:
 
Spurs as a dogg is odd... must be overreaction to what Houston did to Miami. Now they return home... where they aren't necessarily any better than on the road if you look at year's past... Knicks played a relatively early game against NYK on Sun and starters got plenty of rest... I like them here alot. Mcgrady has been slumping... and imagine Yao won't have the same dominance on Popavic as he has the teams he's recently faced.
 
eames is most excellent at maintaining my humility. ;)

Macdamn, at 2:1, I guess maybe the bulls would be a consideration........not at 160 for me tho.

Inspekdah, thanks for your thoughts. I'm going to have to get over my mystified moment before I wager anything on them, but better than even money on the spurs, when they're not on a B2B, is always something for me to take a good hard look at.
 
eames said:
dont worry About That streak:

i cant imagine That ANYONE was Tailing YOU For ANY reason.





naturally Just Giving You some Friendly shit.

Anyway -- Good luck with Tonights session. And keep in mind:

THE CLEAR HAS NO ENGRAMS.





'an_horse'


Not even a Seahawk named Engram?
 
The hoops world might well consist of Two Groups:

Those who Take A SANANT with points Anytime Anywhere

And Those who dont.

For what its worth: im in The Former Group.

At The same Time:


SANANT is 3-2 ATS in its L5 As dog.

SANANT is 5-5 ATS in its L10 As dog.

SANANT is 10-10 ATS in its L20 As dog.


For what its worth.



'an_horse'
 
I betchya they usually have significant personnel issues that make them dogs in those games...

I have heard of none for today. Am I deaf, or is something odd in the world?
 
Adding:

Toronto +221

I was going back and forth on this one, but I read BAR thread and he's on it, so I'll go ahead and give the Raptors a shot. The fact that Jason Richardson is questionable won't help the Warriors cause.

Red, I'm looking at the Spurs as well as the Jazz. If either gets high enough I may play them. Don't know why the Spurs line is moving but for the Jazz I think it's because AK-47 might not play. :shake:
 
I'll take the Craptors, too. Spurs down to 106...phooey. Macdamn, did you fuck up my number...? hahahaha


Raptors +221
 
fuckin raptors just totally fell apart in the 4th.

1-2 ML dogs today. Pushed on the overs. BOTH.

ML dogs: 15-19, 42.42%, +6.54 units.
had I played spreads, 19-14, +3.6 units.

Gotta wait til tomorrow to do any analysis of Wednesday games...too grouchy right now.

I did win some good money on that football game, so it's a real good day...but my NBA picks sure were marginal as all hell.
 
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