NBA 2008-09, Week 3 thread...

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 6-6, -$150
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 51-44-2
#1 picks: 9-5

Totals: 47-50
#1 picks: 2-12
=====================================

Day 15:

Top 5 Sides went 4-1 for the first time, so I feel like I may be getting close to coming out of this early slump (heck, not like 6-6 is a total disaster)...Also ending that #1 totals losing streak will hopefully propel me into some further winners there...We'll see...Wish I would have bet my top 2 sides last night, though, as they were easy winners...Still 4 games with no lines...Once they come out, if I like a total, I will bet it tonight after snapping that streak last night...

I have to jump on a game now though...Not sure where the line will move...It may go down to 4, but I personally think it'll hit 5, maybe go off at 5.5...

BET:

Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers -4.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Philly has been a totally different team at Home than on the Road thus far, but the situational spot here is in the Sixers' favor...They have the motivational edge...They just got thumped last THUR on TNT in Orlando after they were thrashed even worse the day before in Miami...They have 4 days to stew over that 2-day debacle...Philly came into this season with a lot of hype thanks to the signing of Elton Brand and they are clearly not living up to expectations...Philly may not be as good as some of the hype they received in the Preseason, but they certainly cannot be as bad as their 2-4 start...Often, it is faulty NBA handicapping logic to say that "The Knicks just beat Utah by 8 on Sunday, so how won't Philly beat them by at least that much since Philly is the better team (despite the records) as Philly destroyed NY by 29 points earlier in the season?"...The fact of the matter is, and it is important to remember this, that NBA teams are never as good or as bad as their last game played...

Another factor that cannot be ignored is Utah playing without Deron Williams...They have risen up without him, starting the season 5-0 (before losing to the Knicks on Sunday), and this is common in the NBA to see a team rise up for a spell to counteract the loss of a star player...But you can only rise up so long before the loss takes effect...Also keep in mind that Utah beat Denver at Home (without Melo playing for the Nuggets), they beat the 1-6 Clippers in a home-and-home, and then they beat Portland and Oklahoma City at Home...A lot of factors working against Utah, while Philly has 4 days rest and have got to be steaming after 2 bad losses...Motivational edge to Philly...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

 

[JPicks]

Not sure it'll matter in the end as he'll probably have limited minutes, but Deron is expected to give it a go tonight. I know the Jazz wouldn't put him out there unless he was 99.9% good to go. He is the franchise and all. Not saying I don't like the play though as I think it's the right side with or w/out him.

GL brew.

 

[Satyr]

GL Brew :cheers:

 

[brewers7]

Thanx...

I guess I shouldn't try and anticipate line moves all the damn time and just wait for the lines to come out...Hate having a "bad" number AND giving -110 juice to boot...Of course, injury report says he's out another 2 weeks and now he's going to go...Remember, never trust the injury reports...But in all honesty, I like Philly whether he plays or not...There is still the "Fade the team whose star player is returning from injury" angle on my side, plus, the situational spot is what draws me the most to Philly here...

Sides:

#1 Phi -4.5
#2 Min +6
#3 NY +4.5
#4 Chi -4
#5 Dal -6
#6 Milw +12
#7 Char +2.5
#8 Sac +7.5

Totals:

#1 Sac un 196.5
#2 Min ov 206
#3 Phi un 189.5
#4 Milw ov 189.5
#5 Chi ov 187
#6 Dal ov 198
#7 Char un 197
#8 NY un 197.5

--------------

Running late today...

First 2 bets ever at Matchbook...Won't be my last...I am liking this book...

I deliberately gave up 1/2 a point to get positive juice on both...

Adding 2 bets:

Level 1 -- Detroit/Sacramento under 196.5, laying $250 to win $252.50 -- This is a "chart-play" for me, pure and simple...DET had 5 Overs to start the season and then went Under last time out, so that 5-game Over streak should reverese it self for a game or two...And SAC also had 4 straight Overs before an Under last time out, so you can pretty much cll this a double-chart play...Doesn't hurt that Martin is OUT for SAC, and I also expect DET to start playing some defense and get back to what they do best...I am hoping tonight is the night for that...

Level 1 -- Minnesota/Golden State over 206, laying $250 to win $257.50 -- The Warriors Have gone over all 3 games at Home, while going Under all 4 Road games (in regulaton, there was an OT-aided Over)...Minny can run with their personnel, so when you look at the game they played at SAC 4 days ago, the total was 230 and the pace was fast (168 shots and 56 FTs attempted)...Again, with the energy at Oracle, I expect a frenetic pace for this game...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL... <!-- / message -->

 

[Marlo]

Good Luck Brewer.

 

[brewers7]

Quick random thoughts:

The Atlanta game has not moved from 10.5 even though I see (on covers) that 66% of the people are picking ATL (I would love to know how many bets are on ATL)...

The Lakers have 60% of the public (and I certainly call the covers/wagerline folks public with a capital P-U-B-L-I-C) and yet that line has gone from 1 to 1.5, a reverse line move...

I have to give credit to the Swedish Professional capper that I talked to every day for 2 years who pointed this out to me, the "rule" is you take the favorite every time the public is on a dog at a percentage of 60% or higher...

What this is telling me, beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Celtics and Hornets are the plays tonight, and possibly strong plays...

Now these plays aren't necessarily as strong early in the season if my memory serves me correct, so I may not even bet either one (as i will bet another game), but to be frank, it's hard not to bet Boston and New Orleans seeing these numbers...

ATL has that trend working for them where the they (Atlanta) play the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season (Boston) for the first time this season, so the play is Atlanta...HOWEVER, the situational spot, I think, favors Boston as ATL is coming off a tough game last night and they are also 6-0 on the season, while BOS is 6-1 and I think the Celts may want to send this team a message tonight to let them know, possibly emphaticly, who IS the best team in the East...It is also the first time ATL is going on back-to-back nights...

Lakers also had a tough game last night and showed a lot of emotion in the 4Q as they came from behind to beat Dallas...Trevor Ariza, who I mentioned 2 weeks ago as a HUGE, huge bench player for the Lakers now that he is healthy and he showed just how BIG he is with 13 points, 6 boards and 3 steals, playing almost 29 minutes, key minutes, quality minutes for LAL...First time LAL is on a back-ender against a quality team...Hornets should have something to prove tonight...
<!-- / message -->

 

[wizardofodd]

the "rule" is you take the favorite every time the public is on a dog at a percentage of 60% or higher...


Brew, I use that alot in NFL and NBA. On top of that, what I also add in is if the public is playing a road dog at higher that 60%.

 

[Marlo]

Quick random thoughts:

The Atlanta game has not moved from 10.5 even though I see (on covers) that 66% of the people are picking ATL (I would love to know how many bets are on ATL)...

The Lakers have 60% of the public (and I certainly call the covers/wagerline folks public with a capital P-U-B-L-I-C) and yet that line has gone from 1 to 1.5, a reverse line move...

I have to give credit to the Swedish Professional capper that I talked to every day for 2 years who pointed this out to me, the "rule" is you take the favorite every time the public is on a dog at a percentage of 60% or higher...

What this is telling me, beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Celtics and Hornets are the plays tonight, and possibly strong plays...

Now these plays aren't necessarily as strong early in the season if my memory serves me correct, so I may not even bet either one (as i will bet another game), but to be frank, it's hard not to bet Boston and New Orleans seeing these numbers...

ATL has that trend working for them where the they (Atlanta) play the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season (Boston) for the first time this season, so the play is Atlanta...HOWEVER, the situational spot, I think, favors Boston as ATL is coming off a tough game last night and they are also 6-0 on the season, while BOS is 6-1 and I think the Celts may want to send this team a message tonight to let them know, possibly emphaticly, who IS the best team in the East...It is also the first time ATL is going on back-to-back nights...

Lakers also had a tough game last night and showed a lot of emotion in the 4Q as they came from behind to beat Dallas...Trevor Ariza, who I mentioned 2 weeks ago as a HUGE, huge bench player for the Lakers now that he is healthy and he showed just how BIG he is with 13 points, 6 boards and 3 steals, playing almost 29 minutes, key minutes, quality minutes for LAL...First time LAL is on a back-ender against a quality team...Hornets should have something to prove tonight...
<!-- / message -->

Brew good luck with whatever you decide tonight, but I wouldn't use Wagerline as my tool for public %.

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 8-7, +$85
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 53-50-2
#1 picks: 9-6

Totals: 55-50
#1 picks: 3-12
=====================================

Day 16:

Totals went 8-0 last night and my #1 total has now won twice in a row...I expect it to win 4 in a row before losing again...Tough choice for me tonight between Miami Over and SA Under tonight (pick below)...The Sixers have me baffled right now...I need to stay away from them...However, I see 72% on Toronto tonight and that line has not budged from 5.5...tells me Phillly is the play...Also, there is a "rule" where brewers7 was on a team one game too early, so you take that team the next time out, and since I bet Philly last night and lost, that definitely makes them the play tonight (remember I bet the Clippers last week and they didn't cover and then they beat Dallas their next time out)...Also, the Clippers are a "chart-play" for me (I think I'll post a link to my chart tonight or tomorrow), whereby they had a NC6 streak to start the season, now Covered last time out, so many times, streaks like this will immediately reverse themselves for a spell...I already talked about the reasons why Boston and New Orleans are games where you either take those teams or don't bet the game at all...Very hard for me not to bet the Mia over and SA under coming off a good totals night, but I'll pass...

Sides:

#1 Hou +3.5
#2 LAC -7.5
#3 Bos -10.5
#4 NO -1.5
#5 Phi +5.5
#6 Memp -4.5
#7 OKC +7
#8 Mia -1.5
#9 Was +4.5
#10 NJ +1.5
#11 SA +2.5

Totals:

#1 SA un 181
#2 Mia ov 189
#3 NO un 196.5
#4 Hou un 199
#5 Phi un 185
#6 Memp ov 205
#7 Bos ov 184.5
#8 LAC un 195
#9 OKC ov 187.5
#10 NJ un 200
#11 Was un 196




BET:

Level 1 -- Houston Rockets Pick (+137), laying $182.50 to win $250 -- Taking the Rockets moneyline here as I like taking good teams coming off 20+ point and especially 30+ point losses...Houson got thrashed by the Lakers by 29 last time out at Staples, despite jumping out to a big league in the game...This should be all the motivation they need here...HOU has lost 3 of their last 4...Houston, on paper, is the better team...Look at who PHOE has beat this year...SA, who is very slow out of the gate and hve a losing record, NJ, IND, MILW & MEMP, who all have losing records...PORT is 4-3, the only team with a winning record they have beaten...HOU has faced BOS, LAL and DAL...PHOE barely beat MEMP at Home last time out...I like the Rockets in this bounce-back spot after their 2H melt-down at Staples last time out...


Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->

 

[tuck321]

Possible. Think one examples was unfortunate however. Suns Grizz game was a major sandwich between the Brewer win for Coach and this game. Suns could have dialed in any number. Instead they created a situation where they had not covered a spread before playing this game.

 

[brewers7]

Brew good luck with whatever you decide tonight, but I wouldn't use Wagerline as my tool for public %.

Well, I let my subscription to sportsinsights expire 2 years ago, so what would be the best alternative?...

 

[brewers7]

Random thoughts:

DEN at CLE (line CLE -5.5, 200) -- LeBron must be sick and tired of losing to Melo...5 straight and 8 of 10 overall...LeBron on an absolute tear as CLE has won 5 straight (3-2 ATS) with 4 straight Overs...Denver doing just fine, thank you, without Iverson as Billups has come aboard, and despite struggling (shooting 28% in 3 games with DEN), the Nuggets are 3-0 SU & ATS since Billups and McDyess (who hasn't played yet) came over...DEN Under their last 2 games, but they were against MEMP & CHAR and the pace of both games were extremely slow...Nuggets go to Boston on Friday, so this is a tough 2-day stretch...Looks like a stay-away game for me...

DAL at CHI (no line) -- DAL has lost 3 straight and Josh Howard is questionable as of now...The Mavs have had success in CHI, winning 8 of their last 9 trips into the Windy City...Will the Mavs have a slight let-down after playing the Lakers very tough at home last time out?...Bulls have lost 2 straight Home games, going Over both games...DAL Over their last 3...Kinda lean to the Bulls and the Over right now, but this may be another no-play...

DET @ GS (no line) -- Stuckey questionable for DET (although I read somewhere he won't play) and Maggette questionable for GS...Pistons started with 5 Overs and now have 2 straight Unders...GS Over all 4 Home games and Under all 4 Away games (in regulation, there was 1 OT-aided Over)...GS Over in the 1Q every home game...DET has gone Over 6 of their 7 games in the 3Q...Depending on the line, I think this can be an Under, but I would take the 1Q Over as again, I compare GS Home games to SAC Home games this year so far, and although DET pushed in the 1Q against SAC at SAC last time out, the pace was an Over pace, DET just shot terrible in the 1Q (7-for-23 from the field and 3-6 from the FT line)...SAC had 24 shots and 3 FTs in that 1Q...And as we know, GS Home games have had frenetic paces in the 1Q...DET has shown a propensity to get sucked in to the up-tempo style at times so far, although if they need to, they will slow it down and go to a half-court set like they did in the 4Q against SAC...And GS games, Home and Away, have been very slow-paced in the 4Q more often than not, with yet another example last time out vs. Minny...These totals are both teams combined:

1Q -- 50 shots, 7 FTs
2Q -- 41 shots, 17 FTs
3Q -- 50 shots, 7 FTs
4Q -- 35 shots, 13 FTs

And GS has had many low-scoring 4Qs this season, going Under in the 4Q 7 of 8 games...So to me, this game should go Over in the 1Q & 3Q and Under in the 4Q, while the 2Q is a toss-up, but I'd take it Under...

DET won and covered both gams last year h2h vs. GS, winning by 7 at GS, although GS had covered 11 of the previous 12 meetings before last season...

DET may have a look-ahead to the Lakers, who they play on Friday at Staples...

If I have a bet, it'll be on this game...
<!-- / message -->

 

[JPicks]

GSW 1st qtr over and 4th qtr unders have been unreal this year. I'm happy to say that I did lose the only 4th quarter that happened to go over. See no reason not to play both again today.

Thanks for the great thread as well. Much appreciated.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx and GL...

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 9-7, +$335
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 56-58-2
#1 picks: 10-6

Totals: 64-52
#1 picks: 4-12
=====================================

Day 17:

Totals went 9-2 last night after an 8-0 night the night before as the Sides have gone in the tank the same 2 days, but the money play won last night (#1 side)...Last 6 bets are 5-1...I realize I am playing it careful, but I feel like I am close to breaking out, and then you'l see more bets and some Level 2 bets...

Random thoughts already posted...I really, really want to bet Det/GS over 50.5 in the 1Q, but will pass, only because Detroit has had some slow-paced 1Q's...It is very hard for me not to bet it with GS going Over every 1Q so far this year at Home, but with 153 days left in the regular season, there'll be plenty of opportunities to get some wins...


Sides:

#1 Chi Pk
#2 Det -4.5
#3 Den +7

Totals:

#1 Chi ov 200.5
#2 Den ov 199
#3 Det un 199.5


=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[tuck321]

They have said Stuckey is being saved for the lakers. GL

 

[brewers7]

Quick random thoughts:

Despite 5 games not even having lines out yet, there are 4 totals jumping out at me already...Question is, how mnay do I bet?...

Spurs/Rockets at 172, although it looks like it might slide up a point or so, but I think it'll come back down...I want to bet this right now, but I'll wait till I wake up and see if it gets to 173 or 173.5 first...My dumbest non-bet of the year last time out when they were my top total Under against Milwaukee 2 days ago...My logic was simple: The Knicks/Spurs game the night before finished at 172, and we're talking the D'Antoni up-tempo Knicks and they were way Under, scoring 172, so how the hell were the Bucks and Spurs even going to get anywhere near the Vegas line of 181.5??...And I make it my #1 total and don't even bet it...Dumb...Now we have Houston and the Vegas total is 172...Same question: How does this get to 172??...These 2 teams h2h have gone Under 22 of the last 28 meetings, 7 of 8 and 11 of 13...Skip their last meeting where they scored 197 late last season (where they decided to run around at a fast pace for some reason on a Sunday afternoon) and these 2 teams have gone Over 176 just once in the previous 19 meetings (not including March 30, 2008)...Now there's no Parker or Ginobili...How do we get to 172 here?...

Despite the fact that the Thunder stink and they had plenty of Unders early on (opened with 4 straight Unders), their pace has been quick almost every game...They simply couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat...But notice they are improving their FG% a bit and have gone Over 3 of 4 and this could be a shot-fest at MSG, it's just a matter of how many are going in...Like the Over...

Pistons/Lakers 4 straight Unders h2h, and this has Under written all over it...Lakers MUCH improved defensively with Bynum and Ariza healthy...With their height, it's tough to get second chances against them as they clean up the boards...Lakers are #1 in the league in rebounds per game and 2nd (behind Philly) in Rebounds-per-game differential...Lakers 2nd in the league in FG% allowed...Detroit is in the middle of the pack in rebounds per game, but they are 3rd in Rebounds-per-game differential, right behind LAL...Just don't see this game hitting 190 and the total is 193 right now, destined to drop, IMO...

Phoe/Sac another total I will consider, on the Over of course...PHOE was 1st in the league in FG% before hitting a slide starting with the game at CHI...Suns shot just 37.6% vs. HOU last time out and I do expect them to break out of their little shooting slump against SAC, who is 25th in FG% allowed...PHOE is 19th...And as far as FG% on offense, these teams are 1st and 2nd in the league (Phoe 1st and Sac 2nd)...Might look at a 1Q Over... <!-- / message -->

 

[spiderman]

Love the analysis! Keep it coming, you are a great help to myself!

 

[Marlo]

Good luck with what you decide Brewer

 

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...Chickening out as usual, for now, only 1 play...

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 9-7, +$335
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 58-59-2
#1 picks: 11-6

Totals: 65-54
#1 picks: 4-13
=====================================

Day 18:

Random thoughts already posted...I like my top 6 totals, don't like any sides, really...Interesting how totals are jumping out at me now after that wasn't the case the first 2 weeks and now the sides are not jumping out t much after doing so the first 2 weeks...I just cannot bring myself to bet 3-to-6 games yet...We'll see how my top 6 totals do tonight and if they do well, then maybe I'll start pulling the trigger more...I really don't know why I am not betting the SA game Under again, I blew it last time and it looks like free money again, but I'll just stick with the #1 total...Matchbook didn't have a lot of different options for lines tday from what I saw, so I had to bet the freaking -110 juice...


Sides:

#1 Was +6.5
#2 Dal -1.5
#3 Memp -4.5
#4 LAL -9.5
#5 Char +4
#6 Phi +1
#7 Port +7
#8 OKC +8.5
#9 Den +10
#10 Atl -3.5
#11 Sac +4
#12 SA +6

Totals:

#1 LAL un 194.5
#2 SA un 173
#3 OKC ov 209
#4 Sac ov 20
#5 Dal ov 198
#6 Was ov 196.5
#7 Char un 178.5
#8 Memp ov 189.5
#9 Den un 197
#10 Atl ov 191
#11 Port un 191
#12 Phi ov 197.5

BET:

Level 1 -- Detroit/L.A. Lakers under 194.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Lakers MUCH improved defensively with Bynum and Ariza healthy...With their height, it's tough to get second chances against them as they clean up the boards...Lakers are #1 in the league in rebounds per game and 2nd (behind Philly) in Rebounds-per-game differential...Lakers 2nd in the league in FG% allowed...Detroit is in the middle of the pack in rebounds per game, but they are 3rd in Rebounds-per-game differential, right behind LAL...I also think there is the potential for the Lakers to blow this team out, which would lend credence to the Under...After seeing Biedrins (center from GS) more or less having his way in the middle last night against Detroit, I wonder how they are going to stop Bynum and Gasol...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

 

[brewers7]

ADDED BET:

Level 1 -- Houston/San Antonio under 173, laying $260 to win $250 -- With the suspension of PG Rafer Alston, I can no longer pass on this under...Again, my logic is simple: The Knicks/Spurs game finished at 172, and we're talking the D'Antoni up-tempo Knicks and they were way Under, scoring 172, so how the hell do the Rockets and Spurs reach 173?....These 2 teams h2h have gone Under 22 of the last 28 meetings, 7 of 8 and 11 of 13...Skip their last meeting where they scored 197 late last season (where they decided to run around at a fast pace for some reason on a Sunday afternoon) and these 2 teams have gone Over 176 just once in the previous 19 meetings (not including March 30, 2008)...Now there's no Parker or Ginobili for SA and no Alston for HOU...BOTH starting point-guards missing tonight...Under...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

With Nash suspended for PHOE, I am also changing that pick to an Under, so the list now goes like this for the totals:

Totals:

#1 LAL un 194.5
#2 SA un 173
#3 OKC ov 209
#4 Dal ov 198
#5 Was ov 196.5
#6 Char un 178.5
#7 Sac un 205
#8 Memp ov 189.5
#9 Den un 197
#10 Atl ov 191
#11 Port un 191
#12 Phi ov 197.5 <!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

No Kirilenko, Okur and Deron Williams for utah tonight and no Jason richardson for CHAR...

How does this game NOT go Under?...

 

[nropp11]

good luck man, pullin for you.

 

[brewers7]

good luck man, pullin for you.

Thanx and GL to ya, sir...

ADDED BET:

Level 1 -- Utah/Charlotte under 180, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- With Kirilenko, Okur & Deron Williams OUT for Utah and Jason Richardson is OUT for Charlotte...CHAR Under 4 straight and 6-of-7 overall and Utah is Under 3 straight now...Any time a star PG is out (Williams for Utah) I immediately look to the under...Cannot help but take this one...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Quick random thoughts:

GS at the Clips, and the Clips are 3-point chalk...I'd like to think I know something about the NBA, so I have to ask myself why is this line only 3 points?...Why?...I don't believe in power ratings, never in my life have even looked at them, I don't make my own lines, but I do look at a game and have a number in my head the split-second before noticing the actual line...3 was not the number that popped into my brain the micro-second before my brain digested what my eyes saw on the computer screen, and that was a -3 next to the Clips...Again, why?...What the hell has GS proven thus far?...Yeah, I realize the Clips are brutal thus far (1-7 overall and 1-5 at Home SU & ATS for both), but Thomas came back last game and they should be able to put this together any moment...You're going to tell me Baron Davis won't be motivated as all hell to play against his former team?...Yeah, GS has beaten them 3 straight and 4-of-5 SU, but the Clips stunk last year and GS was good the past 2 seasons...I don't get it...My sides have stunk the last 4 days, but what am I missing here?...May have to bet that side just because I feel Vegas has unknowingly insulted me here, we'll see, but I almost certainly will bet the 1Q Over...GS has gone Over in the 1Q all 5 Home games, and are 2-2 to the Over in the 1Q, but their last 2 have gone Over...7-2 to the Over this season...And h2h here, the last 7 have gone Over in the 1Q, with 6 of them hitting 60 and the other 54, which will ALL be Over the 1Q total when released SAT morning (I estimate it at 51.5 or 52)...Also 7 of the last 8 and 6 straight games at Staples between these 2 teams have gone Over in the 1Q, with all 7 hitting at least 54 (6 of those also hit 60+)...

4 games on SAT have the 4-games-played-in-5-days trend, my favorite, which I have personally tracked for more than 12 years...But like any trend, you need to also look and see if the situational spot also matches up with what the "automatic play" is...Whenever you have a game where one of the teams is playing their 4th game in 5 nights, you always take the away team...That is the "automatic" pick, if you decide to just ignore the situational spot(s), which I do not do...There are 3 types of 4-of-5 plays...

1 -- the Away team is playing their 4th-in-5 nights, Home team is not
2 -- the Home team is playing their 4th-in-5 nights, Away team is not
3 -- Both teams are playing their 4th-in-5 nights

Most years, #3 is the strongest 4th-in-5 play, then #2, then #1...But certainly NOT every year...#3 though, is generally very strong...I do remember either #1 or #2 had a bad season a few seasons ago, but #2 is usually the stronger of those two...

Anyway, according to the "automatic" plays, you would:

Fade ATL
Fade Philly
Take Utah
Fade Milwaukee

But looking at those 4 games, had ATL beat NJ Friday night, I definitely would have taken NJ on SAT...But with the NJ win, I generally go the other way on the back-end of a home-and-home series, so this is probably a stay-away game for me...

At first blush, I agree with the Fade Philly after they expended all that energy last night, erasing a 25-point deficit after 1Q to come back and win...Now they have to travel further than OKC, who lost at NY last night...

I cannot take Utah here...They are too banged up and CLE is hot...Stay-away for me...

I can surely and probably will fade Milwaukee here...Depends on the line and I am sure it will be about 7.5, which would make it tough...But Boston off a loss have been incredible since the Big 3 got together last season...BOS is 12-5 ATS following a loss since KG & Allen came to town...MILW coming off an OT-win last night at MEMP...Celts the play...

Oh, and off-topic, a friend of mine who is very good at NCAAF likes Baylor -9 and Miss St. +22 SAT in college foots...FWIW...
<!-- / message -->

 

[JPicks]

Love reading those thoughts. I saw you posted something about the 4/5 angle a week or so back, but was going to ask you if you wouldn't mind posting them again so I certainly appreciate it. Also agree with your thoughts about the line in LA for the early game tomorrow. My worry about the 1st quarter is the early start for both teams. No research done, but I'm always gun shy on early start overs. GL tomorrow.

 

[SportsNut]

On the FRI totals had the same ones as you and really same logic except the Utah / Charlotte one. Had the over 179. Utah is actually fairly deep and not having Williams isnt that big of a concern because the team has gotten somewhat used to playing w/o him. Tons of young possibilities on Utah with Price , Brewer , Koufos , and vets Knight , Korver and Harpring . Charlotte has Matt Carroll and May now playing so the loss of the quality players hurt but these teams actually have guys who can fill in . Of course it took a crazy 4th Q to get it but just a comment about the roster makeups..

Also agree on the situational plays but wouldnt rush to back ATL even in the home and home spot . ATL started fast and chances are when the nearly won @ Boston they won over bettors who think they will bounce back after comsecutive losses. Just think they are fatugued and need a few days to gather themselves....

Great stuff and GL.:cheerslike Baylor as well )

 

[SportsNut]

One other thing wasBobcats at home 1st H so far think they are 4-0-1 and very strong in the 2nd Q . Usually lose the 1st and come back strong in the 2nd Q to win the 1st H.....

 

[JPicks]

Quick random thoughts:

GS at the Clips, and the Clips are 3-point chalk...I'd like to think I know something about the NBA, so I have to ask myself why is this line only 3 points?...Why?...I don't believe in power ratings, never in my life have even looked at them, I don't make my own lines, but I do look at a game and have a number in my head the split-second before noticing the actual line...3 was not the number that popped into my brain the micro-second before my brain digested what my eyes saw on the computer screen, and that was a -3 next to the Clips...Again, why?...

Sportsnut--Does this remind you of a book that you read in the last year? I sent brewers a PM insisting that he should read Blink. Reading the bolded part makes me laugh when thinking about the book. You have to check it out brewers.

 

[SportsNut]

Sportsnut--Does this remind you of a book that you read in the last year? I sent brewers a PM insisting that he should read Blink. Reading the bolded part makes me laugh when thinking about the book. You have to check it out brewers.

Oh yeah. The book that helped realize I am not crazy and can trust my instincts w/o being able to verbalize why or how. Very good read ...

 

[O-State]

GL Brewer

...Did San Antonio just beat Houston with a D-League roster and Tim Duncan?

My boy Koufos is averaging 14 a game already. I really think he could be a better player than Okur. More athletic, longer, just as much range, maybe better of dribble, and most importantly, he can block shots. Not a great shot blocker, but Okur really didn't possess that at all and Koufos was really good at that in college.
I think if he puts his mind to it he can board just as well as Okur. My problem is him and his mom were pissed off at Matta for putting him at a center in college. Jerry Sloan will be cussing up a John Deere fire storm if Kosta is tentative and wussy about getting inside and mixing it up. I think Kosta can board and block and do some things, although still weak for a normal center, but what he will not be good at is posting up back to the basket.


----koufos mom and dad are both short in height. His dad was maybe 5-6, a fat wide little Greek man who had duck feet.

I honestly believe Koufas was injected with growth horomones. My cousin had leukemia and was treated by Koufas dad in Akron. The chemotherapy was hormones. This was this guy's specialty. I'm just saying.

Unfortunately Koufas dad ended up passing of cancer himself when Kosta was young.

 

[nropp11]

brew thoughts on pacers +6.5???????

thanks bro

 

[brewers7]

Thanx guys, appreciate the thoughts...

I will look for that book online and get it...If you & SportsNut liked it, I'll have to read it...

Neil, as far as the Pacers +6.5 go, I have just gotten to my pc (meetings all morning, catching a break now, but I am busy till I close up shop around 5 EST), but I will look at the game at some point...My first-blush look produced a "no opinion" to my brain in less than a second...

Be back as I may bet this GS game, looking at it a little more before deciding whether do bet the side, total, 1Q total or any combintion...

 

[brewers7]

BETS:

Level 1 -- Golden State/L.A. Clippers over 51.5, 1Q, laying $275 to win $250 -- Already talked about this one...GS has gone Over in the 1Q all 5 Home games, and are 2-2 to the Over in the 1Q, but their last 2 have gone Over...7-2 to the Over this season...And h2h here, the last 7 have gone Over in the 1Q, with 6 of them hitting 60 and the other 54, which are ALL be Over the 1Q total for today...Also 7 of the last 8 and 6 straight games at Staples between these 2 teams have gone Over in the 1Q, with all 7 hitting at least 54 (6 of those also hit 60+)...

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Clippers -2.5, laying $250 to win $260 -- Just a gut-shot play here...Line looks off to me, but what do I know...Came down 1/2 a point even after opening at 3...Clips are horrible right now, but they have good players...It is just a matter of them coming together with this talent and they have everyone back now...GS is not as good, nowhere as good as last season...I mean, Harrington, Baron Davis and Ellis were all starters last year and none of them are as of now, and in fact, Baron Davis will be playing against GS tonight and he is the type of player who can will a team to win sometimes and today may be a day for him to do just that...

I will have all picks coming (running late with meetings today) and probably 2 more bets (stepping out a bit today)...


Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 10-9, +$57.50
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 64-65-2
#1 picks: 11-7

Totals: 73-58
#1 picks: 4-14
=====================================

Day 19:

Random thoughts already posted...I like my top 3 sides a bit today, 1 in action already and the Clips have pretty much choked this one away...I hate admitting Vegas knows more than I do...Doesn't mean i cannot beat them, though, in the NBA, year after year...My top 3 sides have not had a 3-0 day since Day 5 and have been 2-1 just twice in the last 10 opportunities...It means I am due, but being "due" doesn't guarantee a blessed thing...

My profit margin would be bigger had I used reduced juice from the get-go this season, and I will have a write-up some time very soon to show how much bigger your profit margin is wih reduced or no or positive juice, even giving up 1/2 a point or a point...

Sorry for lateness today, but we had presentations and meetings today and anyway, if I go 1-3, then that'll be a good thing for everyone who missed...


Sides:

#1 OKC +10.5
#2 Bos -9
#3 LAC -2.5
#4 NJ +10
#5 Port -1
#6 Hou -2
#7 Utah +10.5
#8 Ind +6

Totals:

#1 LAC ov 202
#2 Port ov 193
#3 Utah ov 191
#4 Bos un 182.5
#5 NJ ov 195.5
#6 Hou un 181
#7 OKC un 189
#8 Ind un 202.5


BET:

Level 1 -- Oklahoma City Thunder +10, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- I lost some value here by being in meetings all day today (oh how I miss doing this full-time -- maybe again some time soon) so I have to take the 10 points and hope they don't lose by 11 or 12, which are lines i could have had this morning...Philly has owne this recent h2h match-up, but they are 1-2 SU & ATS in back-enders and OKC is 2-0 ATS in back-enders...Philly came from behind to erase a 25-point deficit after the 1Q last night to win at Indy, and then had to travel further than OKC did from NY to get to Philly...I'll take the points here, hoping this isn't a break-out game where Philly kills them by 20+...

Level 1 -- Boston Celtics -9, laying $250 to win $267.50 -- Already mentioned how BOS is 12-5 ATS after losses since Garnett & Allen joined the team last season...up the boards...MILW off an OT-win last night...MILW got Under the number at BOS 8 days ago, but if Boston feels like playing tonight, they'll win by 15+, without breaking too much of a sweat...Now, will they feel like playing?...After a loss, I'll take a shot and say, yes...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Yeah, I love this stuff, it's a passion, but I'd love it a lot more if I got some wins...OKC will be a loss as it looks like this should have been a day with one play, but I'll take my first 2H bet of the season and risk a really bad night:

BET:

Level 1 -- Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I really hate that juice, but Matchbook selection not good for 2H lines...CLE is, I believe 3-0 ATS in the 2H when trailing at the half at Home (I took a really quick look, but I like them anyway because I believe there is some value here as they only need to win this game by 3 to cover this 2H line...Just look at their 2H's this season at Home when trailing and you'll see why I took them, not to mention that they are being out-shot 52% to 42% in the 1H, which will hopefully reverse in the 2H...

GL...
<!-- / message -->

 

[Satyr]

Good luck tonight Brewers. Great thread. :shake:

 

[brewers7]

Couldn't post for a while, site was down or slow or something, which is good in one way because it means there are lots of folks looking on here...

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 12-12, -$195
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 67-70-2
#1 picks: 11-8

Totals: 78-61
#1 picks: 5-14
=====================================

Day 20:

Running late today...Picks will be posted next, but TOR was my #1 side and the under was my #3 total...Will post all picks shortly...One bet only unless a good 2H opportunity presents itself...Sides are horrible right now, will have to wait for a good spot before betting sides again (although my top 3 will probably go 3-0 today with no bets after 0-3 last night betting all 3)...

Had I bet reduced/positive juice from Day 1, I would actually be even or have a tiny profit at this moment with my 12-12 start, which is a very important point that I will talk about either tonight or tomorrow...I have chopped off over $100 or over 33% of my juice losses away though, by starting at MatchBook when i did...More later on that topic...

Sides:

#1 Tor -3.5
#2 Det +2
#3 Char +6.5
#4 Dal -2
#5 Min +9
#6 SA +2.5

Totals:

#1 Dal ov 214.5
#2 SA un 180.5
#3 Tor un 186
#4 Det ov 197.5
#5 Min ov 201.5
#6 Char ov 188
<!-- / message -->

BET:

Level 1 -- Dallas/New York over 214.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- Line really hasn't moved at all...Knicks way Over 2 in a row and Dallas has gone Over 4 of 5 and maybe the up-tempo stuff Rick Carlisle had talked about coming into the season is kicking in now (after going 3-of-4 Under to start the season), kind of the same way CLE had toyed with the idea of being more up-tempo (and also started 3-of-4 Under before going 6 straight Over)...We know D'Antoni's Knicks are nothing less than up-tempo, so hopefully the Mavs get sucked in and we have a shoot-out...I thought about betting the 1Q, 1H and Game totals all Over, but if they throw up bricks every quarter, that would be just what I need, an 0-3 day on one game...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

Quick random thought:

Of course, yesterday, the Raptors jumped out at me at -5 as being way too low a line coming off 2 losses against Miami, a team that Spreadbeater has said over and and over again has no inside game...Ok, well, Toronto clearly does...That line jumped out at me the same way my Clips -3 did the day before against GS, but the Clips got buried and I took a loss there...

And speaking of the Clips, I want somebody to stop me right now...Just stop me...Get a gun, point it at me and beg me not to bet the Clippers tonight...

Yes, I like the f*cking Clippers again...WTF is a matter with me?...

This has prompted me to do something I haven't done in over 15 years and that is, to create a chart and puts a row for every NBA team on it, and then create a Sides column and a Totals column and track my ATS record for EVERY team, sides and totals...It's a good tool I haven't used in quite a while now...It shows you what teams you are seeing well, and which ones you are not...

But also, let's look at the Clippers blowout loss to GS (121-103) on SAT...

Rookie Anthony Morrow (for GS), in just his 4th NBA game, scored 37 points (15-for-20 from the field, 4-for-5 from trey land, 3-3 on FTs) and grabbed an impressive 11 boards (being a 6-5 guard)...He played 41+ minutes...Nellie must be creaming in his pants after that game...Another astounding athlete that fits perfectly in his system...

Morrow had only played 3 games in his career before that game, totalling 40 minutes, and had 23 total points and 5 boards in thos 40 minutes on 9-for-19 shooting from the field, 3-for-7 from trey land and 2-2 on FTs...All off the bench, while SAT was his first start...

So was this an anomaly?...A one-time Jordan-esque performance that burned the Clippers?...

Should I just take the damn Clips here?...SA is back-to-back for the 2nd time since losing Parker and they lost to MILW at MILW the last occurrence...

The Clips will have the better team, by far, on the floor tonight, on paper...But these games aren't played on paper, they're played on those HD TV sets...

I better hurry though if I am going to do this, as I am losing value quickly...I was going to bet it last night at -2, but wanted to sleep on it, and now it's at 2.5, on the verge of going to 3...I think the Clips win this by at least 8, and in fact, I wonder to myself if this is a coming-out party for the Clips?...We'll see...

I may have to bet this one... <!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 13-12, +$55
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 72-71-2
#1 picks: 12-8

Totals: 80-65
#1 picks: 6-14
=====================================

Day 21:

Random thoughts already, posted...Thout I was taking the day off, but upon further review, I am taking the Clips...Sides finally broke out with a 5-1 day yesterday...Was able to get -106 juice at MatchBook as this line rises...Picks will be posted in an hour or so as I have an errand to get to now...

BET:

Level 2 -- Los Angeles Clippers -2.5, laying $795 to win $750 -- Talked about this one already...More I think about it, the more I love this play...First Level 2 bet of the year...2nd back-end of a back-to-back for SA since the Parker injury and they lost at MILW in this spot before...The Clips CLEARLY have the better team on the floor tonight...It is also a 2nd example (hopefully) of the rule where "brewers7 was on a team one game too early"...I bet the Clips last week and lost the bet, then decided to pass on them next time out in a good spot because I was pissed at taking them the time before, and of course, the Clips won easily...I won't let my growing bias against betting this team stop me a 2nd time as this is another good spot for the Clips...Just a matter of time before this talent comes together and puts forth a big game...Tonight may the night...They could win this by 15 or 20...I just hope they win by 3...

First Level 2 bet of the season...This means that at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll and at Level 2, I am betting to win 5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message -->
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

 

[nropp11]

-2.5, thats better, lol.

gl man.

 

[brewers7]

-2.5, thats better, lol.

gl man.

Man, when I am rushed for time, the typos increase 10-fold...Geez...

 

[Blue_Chip]

First level two play! BOL tonight, brewers.

 

[brewers7]

Thank you, sir...

For the record:

Sides:

#1 LAC -2.5
#2 OKC +8.5
#3 Phoe +1

Totals:

#1 LAC un 175.5
#2 OKC un 183.5
#3 Phoe un 196 <!-- / message -->

 

[Marlo]

Brewer looks good, I hope you hit on the Clips tonight.

 

[nropp11]

circus trip :moose:

 

[Blue_Chip]

I don't think I've won a Clippers bet in two years. Oh well...