National Championship Discussion: The Tiger Bowl
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Line is holding pretty steady, up to -6 last time I looked.
I see all the good things about both teams and both coaching staffs and both look unbeatable to me.
Anyone have any strong feelings on side or total?
I see all the good things about both teams and both coaching staffs and both look unbeatable to me.
Anyone have any strong feelings on side or total?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I didn’t even consider the lay-off and I have it more in the 63-64 range. I don’t see Clemson defense just being shredded. Obviously nobody gonna shut down the LSU offense but to think they gonna simply do whatever they want all game is crazy to me.
Sure Clemson d-line is much weaker than last year but their corners are great which gives Venables the ability to do lot of different things with pressure and coverages. You know he gonna throw the kitchen sink at them and show burrow a bunch of looks he never seen before!!
On the other side i think Clemson will use their offense to help the d. I fully expect Etienne to have a monster game. LSU gonna have to account for Lawrence in the run game after seeing film of the osu game and being aware of how they were gashed by ol piss qb on the ground. Should give Clemson a numbers advantage in the run game imo. Even if they do pay extra attention to Lawrence running ability not sure they can fully stop it, they play primarily man which gives running qb more space. I have very little doubt Clemson will look to chew up some clock. I have this around 34-30.
I agree. Maybe getting it a bit higher live but that's just sounds like a very unhappy Monday night.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Those offenses are what giving us such a high freakin number. I just think the defenses have become a afterthought and they both pretty solid units who prob have grown tired of all the talk being about the offenses.
Neither team has really seen many really good defenses imo. LSU played Uga who has a nasty d but their offense gave them no help whatsoever, auburn held them to low 20s but they have a far better front than Clemson. Outside osu Clemson really hasn’t faced any good defenses. I’d just be surprised if this game was played into the upper 30s low 40s.
Neither team has really seen many really good defenses imo. LSU played Uga who has a nasty d but their offense gave them no help whatsoever, auburn held them to low 20s but they have a far better front than Clemson. Outside osu Clemson really hasn’t faced any good defenses. I’d just be surprised if this game was played into the upper 30s low 40s.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
certainly best of luck to you. I won’t be invested in the total pregame at all.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I actually hope it starts a little slow and maybe I can have a chance to play a live over and get a decent middle.
Betting public overwhelmingly siding with LSU
Bettors continue to place money on LSU to beat Clemson and win the College Football Playoff National Championship, increasing bookmakers' liabilities nationwide.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
Looking forward to seeing 4 quarters of aggressive offensive football from LSUs offense. The total hasn’t factored that in and by the end of the 3rd quarter it will be obvious.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
LSU has played aggressive offense into the 4th quarter of every game I’ve watched them play this season.
Yeah, it was interesting having the starters in and still going tempo in the 4th quarter vs Oklahoma.
No idea. If it touches 7... You'll see it get hit right back down IMO.
Burrow played one play in the 4th quarter against Oklahoma on a drive that began in the 3rd.
With that said I don’t necessarily agree with the premise by PNG. They played in the 4Q against Ole Miss and Alabama to keep them at arms length, or beyond in the case of Ole Miss. But at other times Burrow being in and throwing 5 yard hitches while snapping the ball with under 10 seconds isn’t really aggressive either compared to how they play the rest of the game.
Also a note on the defense. They haven’t faced a drive in the second half of a game with less than a two possession lead since October (3Q Auburn). The injury issues early in the season have been noted and it’s been pointed out how they’ve allowed points late in the season also. Focus and intensity issues aren’t a positive, but game situation likely played as much, or more, of a factor than anything else later in the season.
Clemson will have some success on offense because they’re really good as it is and they also should have enough weapons to take advantage of an LSU guy or two still playing out of position. But it won’t come easy and it won’t be because the LSU defense is a scrub unit along for a ride on the Burrow train, as has been implied throughout the season.
Clemson will have some success on offense because they’re really good as it is and they also should have enough weapons to take advantage of an LSU guy or two still playing out of position. But it won’t come easy and it won’t be because the LSU defense is a scrub unit along for a ride on the Burrow train, as has been implied throughout the season.
I said it then and I'll say it again. It was foolish he was out there after the first series of the 2nd half. They kept going uptempo with Brennan in the 4th quarter. That's all that's being noted.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
LMAO. I guess I should’ve said it will be nice to see first half Joe deep into the second half. Obviously, I don’t want it to be too deep but both teams scoring in the 40s will not be a surprise. Neither team reaching 40 will be much more shocking. This will not be a short football game.
He was out there for one additional drive beyond that and all but two snaps with Brennan in the 4th quarter were with less than 5 seconds on the play clock, and one of those two was still with less than 10 seconds. That’s not uptempo by any definition, which is with the general theme I’ve attempted to point out throughout this thread.
For the last 6-7 weeks some folks have talked themselves into a position on LSU based on a perception and set of facts they’ve created in their mind that don’t actually exist in real life. I’m simply trying to point out the inaccuracies and misconceptions so that folks don’t throw money away based on something that isn’t real.
I have zero problem with uptempo in the 4th. I'm not saying they were going ultra fast but they certainly were not sitting on the clock to get the game over. I hate when teams change their style too early in a game (I was one of the few who had no problem with the Falcons staying with their offense vs Patriots). Anyways, good luck to your team.
I don't even consider them crazy tempo. They are kinda like OKLA with the slow no huddle tempo. I'll try and find coverage of it because I was discussing with 2 other people at the time... That's all. If they truly took the clock under 2 seconds each time then my apologies.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
A year ago Clemson destroys an arguably better team in Bama (than LSU this year) and goes undefeated and now is almost dogged a TD. Crazy.
And I say that comparison based on LSU playing on par with multiple teams this year who ended up being so so at best in Texas, Florida, and Auburn.
And I say that comparison based on LSU playing on par with multiple teams this year who ended up being so so at best in Texas, Florida, and Auburn.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
While I agree that both those teams last year were better than this year’s LSU, that doesn’t matter because what made that Clemson team truly special is gone. If they had that DL this year, they could do what no team was able to LSU. If Clemson is going to win tomorrow, they’re going to have to match LSU score for score and get a stop or two when they absolutely have to
That same Clemson team a year ago played on par with a couple of so so teams. It didn’t mean anything in January. Just like this year’s Clemson playing on par with a so so North Carolina won’t mean anything tomorrow either.
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crawdads
Fairway to Heaven
You on Clemson?
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Why isn’t the line moving?
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
It’s being bet hard and fast every time it moves to 7 and vice versa down below 6 from very deep pockets (sharp groups). The line has moved a lot (both the side and the total) over the past week. It’s stuck between 5.5 and 7 and 68.5 and 70. If you’re into +EV Clemson +6 provides 3-4 free points at minimum. The public is on LSU clearly which is not comforting. The Total is another story. Will take a lot of things to allow it to go under. Including a lopsided game that isn’t likely to happen.
down to -5 now
JohnnyGambler
Kevin Warren Fan Club Founder
What book?
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Its offscreen, you cant bet there.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
No, that's actually incorrect. Clemson won every game Lawrence stared and finished by 20+.
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It’s correct by the transitive property, teams are static logic that was previously posted.
Did you make it here for the game?
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
No, I didn't. Had to go Kansas City last week and couldn't finish my billing in time. There's a pot of money in my IOLTA account, but I can't draw it down until I send out the invoice, so my wife thinks we're too tight on cash to do it. I imagine I'd run into people from the old days (I dated the state treasurer's daughter for a bit) and wind up with tickets at face value or better, but I still have too much work and billing to do.
Nobody can “predict” the outcome of sporting events. As a gambler, it’s all about finding value in the line - or at least it is for the successful gamblers. Unfortunately, the vast majority of gamblers, including myself, can’t do this successfully in the long run, because we fall in to the the trap of trying to “predict” outcomes too often and get emotionally attached.
This line would be 3 if it weren’t for the Oklahoma rout, which too much stock is being put into by most people. At 5.5 or 6, everyone, yes everyone, should be playing Clemson. Win or lose, it’s the only play to make in this game, regardless of what anyone thinks they can predict. A 2.5 or 3 point inflation is a giant inflation gap in the world of sports betting. This all comes down to line value, and this line is inflated.
Remove emotion....remove what you think of LSU’s offense or Clemson’s defense, remove your annoyance of Trevor Lawrence’s hair or your love for LSU’s cheerleaders. It’s as simple as this...you bet Clemson. If it wins, that’s fantastic. And, if it loses, you move on and do the exact same thing next time in this kind of betting scenario because these are the types of opportunities that the wise gamblers don’t pass up on.
(in my opinion)
This line would be 3 if it weren’t for the Oklahoma rout, which too much stock is being put into by most people. At 5.5 or 6, everyone, yes everyone, should be playing Clemson. Win or lose, it’s the only play to make in this game, regardless of what anyone thinks they can predict. A 2.5 or 3 point inflation is a giant inflation gap in the world of sports betting. This all comes down to line value, and this line is inflated.
Remove emotion....remove what you think of LSU’s offense or Clemson’s defense, remove your annoyance of Trevor Lawrence’s hair or your love for LSU’s cheerleaders. It’s as simple as this...you bet Clemson. If it wins, that’s fantastic. And, if it loses, you move on and do the exact same thing next time in this kind of betting scenario because these are the types of opportunities that the wise gamblers don’t pass up on.
(in my opinion)
A+ post.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
The 1%ers
Here are several of the LV bookmakers predictions for the game (including two ctg alumni)
National Championship predictions: Oddsmakers nearly unanimous on who will cover spread
BetIndiana News reached out to oddsmakers for their predictions on Monday night’s College Football National Championship game between Clemson and LSU.
betindiananews.com
Looks like crawdads has arrived into town. View attachment 45060
