National Championship Discussion: The Tiger Bowl

PNGFROM2003 said:
Lol maybe YOU ARE crazy! I know that I am! Your assessment on a likely score is very realistic though. LSU has scored 36 or more in all but the Auburn game and 40+ in 10 or 11 of their games to date. I’ve see many suggest running and controlling TOP will be Clemson’s
key to victory. I hope they do that and blitz a lot as a LSU backer.
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I'm definitely crazy. No disagreement. I disagree with that assessment. But hey it's just my opinion. Clemson will always start methodical and try to wear you down, but teams better be ready for those 29-7 runs they go on. Just don't see that in this one because lsu will score especially if they play at the high pace.
 
M.O.T said:
This isn’t correct, several had LSU as a small fave over one or both.
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No, it is correct. As of last week both were still favored in lookaheads. LSU moved to a favorite when Circa released in the 3rd quarter of the Oklahoma game. They released 5.5 I believe and it got bet down to 3.
 
Guys, two weeks ago these hypothetical lines both had bucks and Clemson favored. Circa, dimes, everywhere. Then in the first half of ou all of a sudden lsu went to - 3. It's hypothetical anyways. Moot point now.
 
HUNT said:
Bar is my line guy. Dude watches these like a hawk.
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It definitely was dropping since two weeks ago. I think at one point I saw Clemson at 1 or 1.5 maybe Christmas Eve ? Fwiw, I don't blame them for moving it whatsoever.
 
I said this last night and I want to reiterate....the most impressive thing about LSU is that they never drop balls and win every single 50/50 ball it seems. That is HUGE. Clemson gonna need to win a few of those battles, no doubt.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah hunt gets enough screenshot texts from me showing lookaheads of anything... Prolly too many.
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... for the record, @HUNT asked for you to limit the screenshots you send him of your looking head while in the shower...

Stick to the numbers @B.A.R. , lookahead is meant for only pointspread numbers....thanks. :shake:
 
B.A.R. said:
No, it is correct. As of last week both were still favored in lookaheads. LSU moved to a favorite when Circa released in the 3rd quarter of the Oklahoma game. They released 5.5 I believe and it got bet down to 3.
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5D had LSU as a favorite at one point, and trying to search for articles related to the hypothetical is difficult today now that the actual has been released, but I did find one that said fanduel had LSU over Ohio State.
 
M.O.T said:
5D had LSU as a favorite at one point, and trying to search for articles related to the hypothetical is difficult today now that the actual has been released, but I did find one that said fanduel had LSU over Ohio State.
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I'm sure places like FD did... I honestly only look at the main offshores and circa. The new books in the states vary so much at this point so I don't concern myself ... I'll believe ya there. The gap had closed in the last few weeks with some PR ratings and frankly to get joe blow to bet this game properly you had to instill LSU as a favorite. People already think the line is too low ... which is good...drive it up to 7...pleeeease.
 
HUNT said:
Clemson getting no credit. Lawrence is damn warrior. It will be much easier for Lawrence to throw on LSU than Tosu...Burrow had a great year, but he's always the backup to haskins, martell and would have been to fields in my eyes.
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Fake news. I like the LSU secondary more.
 
crawdads said:
LSU's Grant Delpit wins Jim Thorpe award, honored as college football's top DB

Not to mention Stingley was also a first team all american DB as well.
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Awesome. Bama d was amazing last year too. We can do this all day.
 
Looking at the total... If this is a 20-30 point blowout like many are projecting the thing is ..LSU will keep starters in most of the way and even with a backup QB run tempo in the 4th quarter of a blowout. That would be a concern for any pregame or live unders.
 
crawdads said:
Time of possession means nothing to LSU. They score on 5 or 6 play drives.
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LSU doesn’t necessarily have to win the TOP game but if the other team is successful enough it can limit possessions.

Florida’s offense played out of their mind and kept the ball for like 38 minutes, the issue was LSU averaged 10 ypp and still scored 42. If you couple what Florida did on offense with a few stops from the defense and limiting big plays that’s the recipe. But knowing it and being able to do it are two different things.
 
HUNT said:
Don't give a fuck who wins, or care. Just saying there will be points.
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Same. Clemson is basically an SEC school.
HUNT said:
Awesome. Bama d was amazing last year too. We can do this all day.
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Yup. That's what message boards are for. Debate.

Burrow seems to be destined to win, almost inevitable. The team's sole focus has been this game.

With that being said Dabo is running on a heater, and Lawrence is a prodigy. Clemson was very fortunate to win the other night, either they played their stinker of a game, or maybe they aren't as good as we thought. We will know soon. Still not going to be surprised if LSU hangs 40 or 50 on them and wins by DD. Chase Jefferson and Moss are as good as NFL teams skill players.
 
I don’t think many are projecting a 20-30 point blowout.

ETA: I don’t think you can play the under unless you expect Clemson to snap the ball with under 10 seconds on every play, while still being efficient and within striking distance the entire game. This game could easily fly over even with LSU winning by 14-17.
 
crawdads said:
Same. Clemson is basically an SEC school.


Yup. That's what message boards are for. Debate.

Burrow seems to be destined to win, almost inevitable. The team's sole focus has been this game.

With that being said Dabo is running on a heater, and Lawrence is a prodigy. Clemson was very fortunate to win the other night, either they played their stinker of a game, or maybe they aren't as good as we thought. We will know soon. Still not going to be surprised if LSU hangs 40 or 50 on them and wins by DD. Chase Jefferson and Moss are as good as NFL teams skill players.
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Now this I agree with.

Fun debate.
 
HUNT said:
Truly expect Clemson to start slow. But they'll get theirs.
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If you can get one of those 4Q totals ahead of the game that would probably be worth it. Worst case is one or the other is ahead comfortably and looking to start the celebration, but both offenses should scrap to the end and can put up some garbage time scores.

On the opposite end of the spectrum they’re trading blows in the 4th and neither can stop the other, especially with the defenses tiring and the adrenaline having worn off.
 
HUNT said:
Of course you do because you're an sec slappy. I'm objective.
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CRAZINESS - CONFIRMED
Side Note: Officiating aside - Has Day been destroyed for not going for 2? At worst, the game should’ve went to Overtime. Not to mention, the offensive boondoggle that was the OSU 2nd half olaycalling. He gave that game away!!!!
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
CRAZINESS - CONFIRMED
Side Note: Officiating aside - Has Day been destroyed for not going for 2? At worst, the game should’ve went to Overtime. Not to mention, the offensive boondoggle that was the OSU 2nd half olaycalling. He gave that game away!!!!
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Dude for the 100th time... I'm a michigan fan. And, I bet Clemson live.
 
HUNT said:
Dude for the 100th time... I'm a michigan fan. And, I bet Clemson live.
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What’s that have to do with your consistent extreme anti-SEC bias/hate? As for the Clemson live bet......CONGRATS! Did you know Day would give the game away? Clemson had about as much to do with winning that game as Hawaii did versus BYU.
And yes I was on the “wrong” side of both. Still shocked at the lack of outrage with Day’s math abilities. Even Les Miles threw his TV when OSU kicked that extra point up 1 in the 4th quarter.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
What’s that have to do with your consistent extreme anti-SEC bias/hate? As for the Clemson live bet......CONGRATS! Did you know Day would give the game away? Clemson had about as much to do with winning that game as Hawaii did versus BYU.
And yes I was on the “wrong” side of both. Still shocked at the lack of outrage with Day’s math abilities. Even Les Miles threw his TV when OSU kicked that extra point up 1 in the 4th quarter.
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No sec bias. Clemson points man. Read what I'm betting. Over Clemson. No idea who wins.

Also had lsu multiple times against ou which scarf and bar can confirm. Hate even bringing that up but just no sec bias.

Bucks blew that game man. They did. Just see flaws in lsu d is all.
 
I will say I do think big ten is better overall conference top to bottom. But that's too be determined.
 
HUNT said:
No sec bias. Clemson points man. Read what I'm betting. Over Clemson. No idea who wins.

Also had lsu multiple times against ou which scarf and bar can confirm. Hate even bringing that up but just no sec bias.

Bucks blew that game man. They did. Just see flaws in lsu d is all.
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Definitely can confirm .. game bet and live 1h bet at 7-0 (-13.5) were in the words of someone else "big bets" among others... (I'll even credit his live under 97.5).
 
Lsu and bama are amazing programs. It's awesome and I'm envious of the year lsu is having as a michigan fan. Best of luck to both Clemson and lsu. Let's have a great final with no injuries. Gonna be fun. Enjoy it @PNGFROM2003 and @twinkie13, @crawdads and @M.W. .. Just never know when you will be in a position like this again.
 
I’m leaning Clem but LSU seems to jump on everyone. I’m planning to bet Clemson pregame for 1/4 my planned wager and then add to it if LSU scores first or takes the lead at some point in the 1H. If anybody likes LSU I would consider taking them in the 1Q or 1H.
 
C-MAN said:
Line sitting at 5.5 at my book. Does it close closer to 4 or 7?
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My guess is 4. It will be interesting to see if metrics based heavy hitters pull it back as much as those recency based pickers have steamed it up.

Would be interesting to see some combination of the two. I think Connelly said LSU is the top SP+ team if only games from October forward were included in the calculation. You obviously can’t just ignore a third of the season but it goes along with some of what we’ve discussed here. I assume it would help Clemson’s rating as well.
 
HUNT said:
No sec bias. Clemson points man. Read what I'm betting. Over Clemson. No idea who wins.

Also had lsu multiple times against ou which scarf and bar can confirm. Hate even bringing that up but just no sec bias.

Bucks blew that game man. They did. Just see flaws in lsu d is all.
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What flaws do you see? Please elaborate. There are a few games where they are up 30+ and they call off the troops and give up meaningless scores. They also score in 5 to 6 plays so their defense is on the field a lot.
 
LSU Scoring Drives the last 3 games. I haven't seen an SEC offense like this ever. Will be very curious about what Clemson does to slow these guys down.
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crawdads said:
What flaws do you see? Please elaborate. There are a few games where they are up 30+ and they call off the troops and give up meaningless scores. They also score in 5 to 6 plays so their defense is on the field a lot.
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Bama with an unhealthy Tua, Auburn with a terrible Nix that game almost won, GA had no offense..all WRs hurt, Ole piss moved the ball with two qbs, and two rbs, played against KJ jefferson, Arkansas, a backup at the time, Trask throw all over them in a tie game at half, Texas...do I need to go on..these are flaws....regardless of injuries or not. I'll give you TAMU..the d was great, and I'll give you Oklahoma. Didn't even include Texas and Vandy...
 
crawdads said:
What flaws do you see? Please elaborate. There are a few games where they are up 30+ and they call off the troops and give up meaningless scores. They also score in 5 to 6 plays so their defense is on the field a lot.
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Like MOT said, sure we would rather Todd Harris there and some other lineman, but I really think the LSU D thing is blown out of proportion a bit.

Like when Jacoby Stephens, who actually didn’t have that bad of coverage on Lamb on the long TD pass, LSU was caught a bit with Lamb in the slot.
Obv rather have Vincent or Flott in nickel or dime( I didn’t see the WR set on the other side) but that’s the kind is shit they need to do
 
HUNT said:
Bama with an unhealthy Tua, Auburn with a terrible Nix that game almost won, GA had no offense..all WRs hurt, Ole piss moved the ball with two qbs, and two rbs, played against KJ jefferson, Arkansas, a backup at the time, Trask throw all over them in a tie game at half, Texas...do I need to go on..these are flaws....regardless of injuries or not. I'll give you TAMU..the d was great, and I'll give you Oklahoma. Didn't even include Texas and Vandy...
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Auburn had 16 total first down and scored 20 points in large part to a couple of turnovers. UGA scored 10 including a meaningless 4th quarter touchdown.

They gave up a lot against Bama, if that means they have flaws. So be it.
 
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