National Championship Discussion: The Tiger Bowl
- Thread starter B.A.R.
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PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
This is the exact line of thinking that has cost bettors a metric ton from that game until today betting against LSU. LSU had multiple defensive starters on suspension and were very thin in both the secondary and at LB. DELPIT played on very wobbly wheels and up 3+ scores a lax approach set in coming out of halftime. Plumlee will reek havoc under Kiffin for years to come. If you haven’t accepted that the defensive effort in that one half up 20+ against an amazing talent was an outlier you are destined to throw away money one last time versus LSU. To appease BAR I’ll try to leave it alone but it’s truly mind blowing that a game and a half carries so much weight while 8 others versus extreme team talent get thrown aside. For the past two weeks it was that Hurts would run for 250+. Not to mention our most versatile and dependable LB will be back for the ship (See above - Divinity). Very Disappointed Clemson isn’t at least +4 or more but under a TD has to be laid in a game with so much at stake in a building that so many of our players have already won multiple titles in while in high school. Joe’s quick release and next level game intellect will neutralize any pass rush and if Venables is dumb enough to bring those blitzes the Under has zero chance unless Clemson can’t score on our handicapped elementary school defense 44 - 27 Bayou Cats. Running the home state product relentlessly may limit Joes touches but TOP does not equal points. And I’ll go ahead and say it while I bet on Ohio State my heart wanted Clemson to win. Call me Trader Joe if you must I’m just sharing relevant facts that I hope minimize the amounts of losses incurred based on stale, uninformed and useless information that gets recycled week after week by supporters that leave the game bamboozled and BROKEnhearted. GEAUX TIGERS! P.S. BAR I aim to be respectful and quieter until the season has ended with yet another SEC champion remains as the last men standing. #SorryNotSorry
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PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
A good exercise for all would be to list the 100 yard rushers vs LSU this year. My guess is PlumLee and ........maybe one more. Maybe
takeit
THE Wife
Great post.
Why did you bet OSU but want Clemson to win? Is it safe to assume you will be on LSU minus the points? If so, how high? I am on them for anything under 10.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Najee had about 150. Would’ve had near 200 if he’d had more than 3 touches in 1H. Sark gonna Sark though
takeit
THE Wife
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Playing any under at this point in an LSU game seems like capping suicide.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
thankfully I learned my lesson before October was over
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Yet it will hit this time.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
I must admit I submitted bowl pools and was Clemson/Under up until the week of the game. I consistently overthink plays and it costs me 90% of the time. As for the desired opponent IMO Ohio State was the most talented team on both sides of the ball. Despite the at times questionable calls I still believe OSU lost that game by not being more open and creative offensively. The last drive showed that Clemson could’ve been driven on throughout if OSU wasn’t so determined to run with a hobbled stud RB. CLEMSON had the experience edge at QB and that likely made the difference. In essence, I think LSU matches up better with Clemson. They appear to need to blitz to get to the QB vs OSUs ability to disrupt with their DL without blitzing. Joe has gotten the ball out quickly and actually does better vs the blitz. The run all over LSU angle may be true when trailing by 2-4 scores but I don’t recall the run d being as big a liability as outsiders seem to believe. The suspensions throughout the season are ignored and what you will face now is the starting defense minus maybe one original starter that missed most of the year at S. I’ve thrown out the Auburn game since it occurred based on the sloppy field conditions. They did get pressure and played great D but ignoring the role the field played cost many when they played Georgia. I was all over Georgia because I knew they were overvaluing Auburn (who was limited by Nix - most of the season). I can’t commit to a number I’ll lay vs Clemson but up to 7 feels safe at this point given Clyde is able to play at 90+%. I’m just a fan that factors in the variables that matter IMO. I’m not making excuses I’m just sharing what I’ve seen as the season has played out. To say I was not impressed by last nights game doesn’t tell the full story. I just don’t see Clemson holding LSU Under mid 30s to mid 40s without a sizable turnover difference. Personally, I hope Clemson does go the pound the run game route as I have great faith in a healthy fully available LSU defense.
takeit
THE Wife
Great post - thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts!
Just discussed this last night. Imagine if they hadn't wasted a half+? LSU still better but would have been a tight one.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
I respect those stats and points of view. However, I contend you are facing a much different defense when trailing by double digits. The old NFL prevent mindset is the best comparison with obvious variables that don’t match up exactly but should get the point across. If JOE didn’t answer score for score the majority of the time then yes we would’ve found ourselves in some much tougher situations. I would guess Najee found room to run cause we were willing to give up yards and let time burn versus giving up 80 yard bombs in seconds As we did late in tht game. I’m more interested in the results of teams that came out running and just ran in down our throat from start to finish. If you score a TD on every possession and keep Joe on the sideline throughout we are in a very tough spot. I just don’t recall seeing anything close to that this season. Florida and Texas mixed run with lots of passing and outside of Auburn were the only games I recall being in jeopardy for more than a quarter to a half.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
How many back to back Champs? How many went to final season after winning it all and won?
Miami, USC Bama stick out me as losses. Bama only team recently to pull it off?
So hard to win two in a row. And Clemson just went through a war with OSU. Don’t this Clemson team overall on par with last two teams that won it all. As of today, think they get exposed in the dome.
Miami, USC Bama stick out me as losses. Bama only team recently to pull it off?
So hard to win two in a row. And Clemson just went through a war with OSU. Don’t this Clemson team overall on par with last two teams that won it all. As of today, think they get exposed in the dome.
Have already played LSU TT O37 -125. 2unit bet. I didn't see anything from Clemson's D that leads me to think they'll stop LSU's offense. Fields knee wasn't 100% and he wasn't a huge RPO run threat and Dobbins hurt his ankle during the game - think that is the only thing that slowed OSU down - and they're own dumb plays, dropped passes, etc. Haven't trusted LSU's D since Vandy hung 38 on them early the season. LOL. I know LSU has a different offense than OSU but just don't see Clemson getting pressure on Burrow without blitzing and that will add up to LSU scoring a lot. My guess is Clemson will match and we'll have a shootout.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
Would love to see the breakdowns by half. Ole Miss we know was due to 3+ score lead at half and lack of depth and mobility of the safeties as well as several starters suspended.
Vandy - Again numerous defensive starters suspended and VERY early in the season. That game was a huge outlier that was probably played in an attempt to stay healthy and get over with. Never a threat. But sad they were allowed to score at will.
Auburn could’ve easily been a loss. Nix if competent and poised should’ve at least scared us beyond the score. His passes were not even in play for most part. He was avoiding turnovers but also giving his WRs no chance to make plays. Best D we faced by far and the offense sputtered with horrendous sloppy field condition. Just look at the 4th and less than one we decided to forego a FG and let Joe attempt a QB sneak and his feet slid sideways almost a yard as the grass just tore away from the saturation. The gifted knee down muffed punt by Stingley in their red zone that was reviewed and stood was a large part of their offense. Auburn D Line caused fits and with a veteran QB we likely lose that one.
Bama very easily may have given the game away with the late first half attempt to keep up with our O/Joe resulting in a pick that was cashed in for a TD with less than a minute to go until halftime. Tua and I guess Najee combined for a games worth of offense in the second half down 3 scores and made a blowout result in a 5-6 point game.
The theme is no one to my recollection
lined up and ran the ball at us out of the gate and had success with getting ahead and controlling more than a quarter or so. In theory it sounds great but you can only score 7-8 points a possession. 3-4 minutes later you’re tied up and have to repeat and not miss a score or you will be trailing.
Shoutout to Miss State. They went with this strategy and ALMOST made it through the first half. MAybe a turn over spawned it but I had written off a decent size first half ticket with under 3 minutes to play. It may have been 9-7 LSU and I was holding -11 first half. LSU finally scored a TD and State made a mistake and within 2 plays Joe hit Chase (I’m assuming) down the sideline to quickly (less than 90 seconds/2 TDs) turn that ticket into a winner. Almost perfectly executed by state but they go to half down 10+ and never come close to recovering. Night Folks. Do some digging. We trailed Texas briefly and Florida for almost a half but every attempt thus far has been futile. It’s really easy stop Joe from completing 8 out 10 passes and run clock killing drives that all end in TDs. That’s all it takes to sidetrack destiny. GEAUX TIGERS!
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Why is this game on 13th instead of 6th?
Clemson has to get pressure with 4 and have three lock down corners with elite ball skills to hold LSU to low 30’s. Haven’t dug in enough yet but my assumption is they don’t have those things.
Maybe Burrow is a lowly backup at the almighty tOSU, but he’s a first round pick with elite accuracy throwing to three first round pick WRs, with a versatile enough RB and TE to cause problems on their own.
Maybe Burrow is a lowly backup at the almighty tOSU, but he’s a first round pick with elite accuracy throwing to three first round pick WRs, with a versatile enough RB and TE to cause problems on their own.
aplous
Donkey Hater
Burrow’s pocket presence is the best I’ve seen in a long time. He moves so well to avoid the rush and find angles to make throws. I have no doubt they move it very well against Clemson especially if 22 is a full go.
The job that OSU corners did against Higgins and Ross was amazing. Wade being tossed changed the game so much.
The job that OSU corners did against Higgins and Ross was amazing. Wade being tossed changed the game so much.
I tried to explain how the Vanderbilt game played out in a post earlier this year. If you’re banking on that game as a data point you’re better off just handing your money over.
First and foremost, the game was over in the first quarter as LSU rolled up a 28-7 lead and about 280 yards of offense, even after Vandy took the opening kickoff and drove for a score.
Vanderbilt also scored two defensive touchdowns, one at the end of each half, both of which were long after the outcome had been decided. Ahead 38-10 with under a minute in 2Q, Burrow and Edwards-Helaire fumbled an exchange without contact from the defense and Vandy recovered in the end zone. With under two minutes remaining in the game and trailing 66-31, Vandy pick sixed the backups.
LSU played this game without 5 of its top 6 DL (every starter was out), without OLB Chaisson, and lost another starting OLB during the game. The DL starters were DE Fehoko, NG Evans, and DE Thomas. Fehoko is a backup who plays a lot of snaps in the current 6 man rotation. Evans is a freshman #3 NG who started because the top two were out and he hasn’t played a meaningful snap in at least 8 weeks. Thomas was a reserve DE who started because both starters and the other backup were out. He isn’t even on the team any more because he was so far down the chart once everyone returned.
Not only was the LSU defense not healthy for most of the first two months of the season, when they did start to get healthy it was the first time most of them were on the field together and it took a while to figure out who they are and what they wanted to do. Even with that, Alabama is the only team who has had any success while the game was competitive, and even they were behind by three touchdowns at halftime.
First and foremost, the game was over in the first quarter as LSU rolled up a 28-7 lead and about 280 yards of offense, even after Vandy took the opening kickoff and drove for a score.
Vanderbilt also scored two defensive touchdowns, one at the end of each half, both of which were long after the outcome had been decided. Ahead 38-10 with under a minute in 2Q, Burrow and Edwards-Helaire fumbled an exchange without contact from the defense and Vandy recovered in the end zone. With under two minutes remaining in the game and trailing 66-31, Vandy pick sixed the backups.
LSU played this game without 5 of its top 6 DL (every starter was out), without OLB Chaisson, and lost another starting OLB during the game. The DL starters were DE Fehoko, NG Evans, and DE Thomas. Fehoko is a backup who plays a lot of snaps in the current 6 man rotation. Evans is a freshman #3 NG who started because the top two were out and he hasn’t played a meaningful snap in at least 8 weeks. Thomas was a reserve DE who started because both starters and the other backup were out. He isn’t even on the team any more because he was so far down the chart once everyone returned.
Not only was the LSU defense not healthy for most of the first two months of the season, when they did start to get healthy it was the first time most of them were on the field together and it took a while to figure out who they are and what they wanted to do. Even with that, Alabama is the only team who has had any success while the game was competitive, and even they were behind by three touchdowns at halftime.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
LSU was not in prevent in the 2nd half. Most have forgotten this due to events, but Alabama with a healthy Tua is every bit LSUs equal on offense. Only game all season that Stingley looked like a freshman.
Something to chew on... Just in general... How many points does Clemson score vs OU and the same for OSU be OU if the seeding were different? (This is not to slight LSU you guys...I know it will be taken that way). Before and after the game I would have said 48-56 with either team. There was this weird myth going around about the OU defense going into the game.
scdoggy
Moderator (Honorary)
Good thoughts Johnny.... i agree with what you have in post 49, but if the Bucks executed better and got tds instead of Fgs, that game woukd have been out of reach.
Disagree on the under. If Etienne has success, it will open up the passing game. They can chew a little clock, sure but in the end, they are going to have to score and score a lot to keep up in this one.
Disagree on the under. If Etienne has success, it will open up the passing game. They can chew a little clock, sure but in the end, they are going to have to score and score a lot to keep up in this one.
I assume they would have scored however many they wanted to in order to win the game comfortably. But does that mean they blow through their established TT in the first half while still holding OU right on their mark in a non competitive game?
ETA: I know a lot of people are thinking there’s a huge over reaction to Saturday’s result but at least one or two offshore sites had LSU as a 2-3 point favorite in hypothetical championship games last week, so it isn’t that big of a reversal.
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Hahahahaha
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Bro I know Lawrence can compete. I’m laughing that he said Tate Martell and the backup QB stuff.
It was at 2:30 AM but that ain’t even that late/early for Hunt lol.
Just to echo MOT a bit. This narrative of Clemson scoring at ease on LSU.....I don’t see it.
This obviously isn’t Oklahoma here, trust me I get that.
The time off from now to the 13th would normally make me a tad nervous as LSU has been smokin hot lately but Burrow is just an unflappable
No disrespect but if you had a gun to my head and told me to pick playing Ohio St or Clemson, I’d pick Clemson.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Same myth going about LSU defense I think BAR.....
The defense does have holes. Ideally there would be another pass rusher to compliment Chaisson and another safety to both free up some flexibility for Stevens/Delpit and kick Vincent down to the dime, so it isn’t difficult to see this going over. But it also isn’t difficult to see the differences between now and earlier in the season and that it may now be good enough for LSU to be favored in two weeks.
Winner of Ohio State/ Clemson was supposed to be slight Fav vs. LSU according to many book directors. Everyone is drinking the LSU kool-aid.
Game reninds me of USC vs. Texas, when USC came in averaging 50+ a game in 2005.
Sharp,,post
Awesome matchup...
Can see both arguments...think my favorite angle and anticpated prop is Burrow rushing yards. Brady going to spread them out and use CEH for dumpoffs and Burrow is going to get a lot of ground yards as a result. If the number is reasonable, that's definitely going to be a play I make on this game.
Can see both arguments...think my favorite angle and anticpated prop is Burrow rushing yards. Brady going to spread them out and use CEH for dumpoffs and Burrow is going to get a lot of ground yards as a result. If the number is reasonable, that's definitely going to be a play I make on this game.
That’s an element that exists but hasn’t been needed or used often. Most of his running has been on scrambles to extend drives but they did use the option game a couple times when they needed to ice the win at Alabama. This is a great angle if you think Clemson will mix it up enough to slow down the usual stuff.
Nailed it, @M.O.T I think Venables is going to have the horses Bama didn't have to give Burrow different looks and to counter that (much like TLaw did), I think you see JB9 on more designed runs as a way to move the offense as we know the spread and CEH catch game is something Clemson is looking for.
Aranda and Venables ... cannot wait to see how they adjust both on the fly and at halftime here. Excited as I have been for a while for this matchup.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
Around what # would you consider A lot?
Be careful for what you wish for in wanting to play one over the other. Clemson will go toe to toe all night long. I agree with whoever said it's suicide to take an under with these two. On turf and back to back number 1 picks at qb. The skill sets on both offenses are just too good.
This Oklahoma game is getting way too much overreacting. Every sports book on the planet had ohio state and Clemson as a fave prior to Saturday. And both by more than 3 points. For it to flip like that shows what they needed for the money to be split.
This Oklahoma game is getting way too much overreacting. Every sports book on the planet had ohio state and Clemson as a fave prior to Saturday. And both by more than 3 points. For it to flip like that shows what they needed for the money to be split.
This isn’t correct, several had LSU as a small fave over one or both.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
Lol maybe YOU ARE crazy! I know that I am! Your assessment on a likely score is very realistic though. LSU has scored 36 or more in all but the Auburn game and 40+ in 10 or 11 of their games to date. I’ve see many suggest running and controlling TOP will be Clemson’s
key to victory. I hope they do that and blitz a lot as a LSU backer.
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
Can understand where you're coming from but I still think they can be had Williams (auburn), Vaughan (vandy), plumlee and ealy (piss) all eclipsed the 100 mark and a few others 60+... But none of the teams LSU faced had someone like Lawrence who helps open up the run game for etienne alot and keeps them honest with that RPO.... and I think 2/3 (uga/auburn come to mind) of the teams they faced this year were in top 50 for rushing offence....we'll
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
yep I saw -3 for LSU against "any team"
