National Championship Discussion: The Tiger Bowl

Ive enjoyed watching and backing LSU all year long. Really fun team to watch and glad I picked up on how much fun it was to watch them early on.

But, I don't think people realize how good Clemson is. And to comeback vs. another team that I think is very good in Ohio State is impressive.

LSU will get there's but I don't expect them to move the bal lup and down the field with ease like they have in previous games. And if Clemson gets a couple stops, can LSU stop them on defense?

I think people are really looking past Clemson bc LSU is the flavor of the month.
 
Dollaz said:
Ive enjoyed watching and backing LSU all year long. Really fun team to watch and glad I picked up on how much fun it was to watch them early on.

But, I don't think people realize how good Clemson is. And to comeback vs. another team that I think is very good in Ohio State is impressive.

LSU will get there's but I don't expect them to move the bal lup and down the field with ease like they have in previous games. And if Clemson gets a couple stops, can LSU stop them on defense?

I think people are really looking past Clemson bc LSU is the flavor of the month.
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There's no doubt. The line is hugely inflated, and I couldn't bet LSU in this situation, but part of me just feels that it is their year.
 
This line may be, or probably is, inflated. The other possibility is that the last few LSU lines were woefully short and terrible, which would render all of the hypothetical lines for this game, as of three weeks ago, moot. Had the Georgia line been two touchdowns instead of one, had the Oklahoma line been 3 touchdowns instead of two these “value” based picks and discussion would have sounded exactly like they do today, and they would have lost all the same.

Clemson could cover or win this game and it wouldn’t be a shock, but if you’re taking that side you’re probably much better off capping whether, or how, they’re going to score 34-40 points instead of simply saying the line can’t possibly be correct.
 
Feels like this is LSU’s year. Clemson will be right back here next year with Lawrence. Tons of scenarios where Clemson can cover but I think LSU wins the football game. Ohio St showed you can move it on Clemson....this isn’t last years defense. Coach O gonna raise the trophy tonight. And I like Over 68 b/c LSU doesn’t know how to slow it down even with a lead.
 
Either way, this should be a blast. Kind of an overcast, muggy, damp day which feels more like October than January. But the kids are “sick” today and will be going in late tomorrow so we can make the most of it.
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I screwed up and bet OVER 70 weeks ago. I thought line would move to 73 or so. No way to hedge this that I see. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

I think the score will be something akin to 40-35, 42-35 (either way), but the steam on Under has me concerned
 
M.O.T said:
This line may be, or probably is, inflated. The other possibility is that the last few LSU lines were woefully short and terrible, which would render all of the hypothetical lines for this game, as of three weeks ago, moot. Had the Georgia line been two touchdowns instead of one, had the Oklahoma line been 3 touchdowns instead of two these “value” based picks and discussion would have sounded exactly like they do today, and they would have lost all the same.

Clemson could cover or win this game and it wouldn’t be a shock, but if you’re taking that side you’re probably much better off capping whether, or how, they’re going to score 34-40 points instead of simply saying the line can’t possibly be correct.
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Would it really be surprising if Clemson scored 35?
 
The favorite is 0-7 ATS in the last 7 'ship games.

Dabo's Tigers 8-2 ATS as a dog the past 5 seasons.

Lang on Clemson +5 for 200 Dimes.
 
It's been seven years since I joined. And I still don't get the obsession with Brandon Lang. It's been fifteen years since Two For the Money came out. Fifteen years ago.
 
Lang is the Tout King, period.

It wouldn't be a gambling forum without mentioning his name.

Key to this guy is he's a better dog player than a favorite player.

So if he's on the dog, no worries but if he's on the favorite, run.

Therefore Clemson is not a fade Lang scenario.
 
Ryno14 said:
You like LSU, Em?
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Sitting on the fence right now, so 50/50.

Clemson has a ton in their favor by the 'gambling' numbers but they aren't 'historic' this season whereas LSU kinda is.

Books slowly releasing their propaganda...

Image
 
Dollaz said:
Would it really be surprising if Clemson scored 35?
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I could hear an argument for and against and probably be convinced either way. But regardless of whether or not they can do it, that is where the focus should be more so than what Clemson did last year or what you thought about LSU 16 weeks ago.
 
Seems like every twitter "sharp" and bookmaker has Clemson + the points but all the sites that post the fake percentage of bets say LSU is getting more action. In a game like this with tons of action I think it is all meaningless. Line moving from 6 to 4.5 and 69 to 66.5 is certainly noteworthy but I still like LSU to win.
 
M.O.T said:
I could hear an argument for and against and probably be convinced either way. But regardless of whether or not they can do it, that is where the focus should be more so than what Clemson did last year or what you thought about LSU 16 weeks ago.
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Not to quote myself but just to follow up. It’s not that a Clemson pick is crazy. It’s just that with all of the analysis I’ve heard, and all I’ve heard here even with what I consider one of the best collection of cappers on the net, no one is breaking down the actual matchup. How and why is Clemson going to score all of these points? How and why are they going to slow down LSU’s offense? There’s been a lot of talk about the line being wrong and last year’s Clemson beating a juggernaut. But I haven’t seen a lot of talk about what Clemson is going to do four hours from now with their 2019 team against this 2019 LSU team.
 
For example, how are they going to use Simmons? Roaming the secondary to clean up the mismatches, or in the box to try to disrupt Burrow’s timing? Both? It seems like they typically choose one or the other, but will either make a difference?
 
I think its reasonable to say that Clemson has a better defense. They have playmakers on defense in Okudah and Simmons (possible top 10 picks). It's not a complete shutdown defense, but it's a pretty good one. (Got abused by Ohio State a little bit).

But, Clemson has a great offense and they are going up against a team that is not a stout defense (LSU defense better than its raw numbers). Bama put up 541 yards and 41 points on the LSU defense and I think Clemson is as good of an offense as Bama with a better QB. Florida is a decent offense and they put up 457 and 28 points. Oklahoma was a good offense so that is one that can be pointed out. What other offense was a good offense? (Im not a buyer of the Georgia offense)

LSU has a great offense and a historic QB. They will move the ball but I don't see them easily carving up the Clemson defense. And I have no faith in LSU being able to hold Clemson under 31.
 
M.O.T said:
For example, how are they going to use Simmons? Roaming the secondary to clean up the mismatches, or in the box to try to disrupt Burrow’s timing? Both? It seems like they typically choose one or the other, but will either make a difference?
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Im not sure there are a lot of mismatches in the Clemson secondary. But, if I was them, I would put Simmons on the running back and try to limited his targets.
 
bones said:
I screwed up and bet OVER 70 weeks ago. I thought line would move to 73 or so. No way to hedge this that I see. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

I think the score will be something akin to 40-35, 42-35 (either way), but the steam on Under has me concerned
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Let it ride and then cash your ticket.
 
M.O.T said:
Not to quote myself but just to follow up. It’s not that a Clemson pick is crazy. It’s just that with all of the analysis I’ve heard, and all I’ve heard here even with what I consider one of the best collection of cappers on the net, no one is breaking down the actual matchup. How and why is Clemson going to score all of these points? How and why are they going to slow down LSU’s offense? There’s been a lot of talk about the line being wrong and last year’s Clemson beating a juggernaut. But I haven’t seen a lot of talk about what Clemson is going to do four hours from now with their 2019 team against this 2019 LSU team.
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There were a couple of great breakdowns on The Athletic that spell out strategies for both teams
 
Dollaz said:
I think its reasonable to say that Clemson has a better defense. They have playmakers on defense in Okudah and Simmons (possible top 10 picks). It's not a complete shutdown defense, but it's a pretty good one. (Got abused by Ohio State a little bit).

But, Clemson has a great offense and they are going up against a team that is not a stout defense (LSU defense better than its raw numbers). Bama put up 541 yards and 41 points on the LSU defense and I think Clemson is as good of an offense as Bama with a better QB. Florida is a decent offense and they put up 457 and 28 points. Oklahoma was a good offense so that is one that can be pointed out. What other offense was a good offense? (Im not a buyer of the Georgia offense)

LSU has a great offense and a historic QB. They will move the ball but I don't see them easily carving up the Clemson defense. And I have no faith in LSU being able to hold Clemson under 31.
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Okudah plays for Ohio St.
 
Dollaz said:
Im not sure there are a lot of mismatches in the Clemson secondary. But, if I was them, I would put Simmons on the running back and try to limited his targets.
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Regardless of whether I agree or disagree at least that’s the line of thinking that should be taking place.

Personally I don’t think any team can cover LSU’s 3 receivers without help over the top or underneath, and then that leaves you exposed to Moss and Edwards-Helaire.
 
Two games stand out to me in LSUs log, the Texas and Florida games. Both teams racked up over 500 yds against LSU and took them deep into the 4th before the game got away from them. I remember the FLA game there were guys wide open and rbs blowing past defenders so I think the LSU defense can be had. Like others mentioned it feels like destiny for LSU and their offense has just been a juggernaut lately but te two aforementioned teams were able to hold them to lots of fgs.

Clemson still has the NC experience so I think they'll hang with them all game. Take the points.

BTW the action is split 60/40 if u wanna believe Vegas.
 
Da Hoss said:
Two games stand out to me in LSUs log, the Texas and Florida games. Both teams racked up over 500 yds against LSU and took them deep into the 4th before the game got away from them. I remember the FLA game there were guys wide open and rbs blowing past defenders so I think the LSU defense can be had. Like others mentioned it feels like destiny for LSU and their offense has just been a juggernaut lately but te two aforementioned teams were able to hold them to lots of fgs.

Clemson still has the NC experience so I think they'll hang with them all game. Take the points.

BTW the action is split 60/40 if u wanna believe Vegas.
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Why would a game from 4 months ago stand out to you? Things change, teams evolve, etc.
 
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