National Championship Discussion: Clemson vs Alabama

All my bets so far are on the offense so far. 1Q over 13.5. Clem 1H over 13.5. Renfrow over 41.5 receiving yards.
 
Bama -3 1h. Don’t know what it’s at this year but think it’s bama 1h ats is almost perfect
Might have been addressed already in the thread
 
I’m feeling pretty torn on this game. Seems like a lot of people like Bama to win but not cover.
 
Ryno14 said:
I’m feeling pretty torn on this game. Seems like a lot of people like Bama to win but not cover.
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I think that's a pretty good sign that we have 2 evenly matched teams. I agree that based on PR, this game should maybe be Alabama -3, but maybe even PK. But no way the books could leave themselves open to that much exposure on people betting Alabama, so the line is what it is. As a fan, I would be disappointed if another team became the first 15-0 national champion, and would also be crazy if what many consider Saban's best team during this run, didn't win the championship
 
gps_3 said:
I think that's a pretty good sign that we have 2 evenly matched teams. I agree that based on PR, this game should maybe be Alabama -3, but maybe even PK. But no way the books could leave themselves open to that much exposure on people betting Alabama, so the line is what it is. As a fan, I would be disappointed if another team became the first 15-0 national champion, and would also be crazy if what many consider Saban's best team during this run, didn't win the championship
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We would all be crushed for you.
 
Hate to say it, but I think the playing field is just going to be a disaster tonight....kids will be slipping everywhere......another black eye for the Pac12
 
I heard guys on the radio, with a live shot this morning , saying there were fans pointed at the field.
They bring in a copter and you'll know it's serious.
 
I assume poor field helps the under but could also hurt defensive backs in coverage, no?
 
Did you mean another team?

They played in 2016 and Car scored 46, but at home.

They played in 2017 and Car blew them out @ SF 23-3
 
I couldn't resist the Irv Smith props either....I hit O2.5 and O30.5 (catches and yards) and sprinkled some first TD +1800 on him as well to see if they can all come in on the first drive....lol
 
bamabradley2424 said:
Irv smith over 28.5 receiving yards is straight money. Probably gonna be on over 2.5 receptions large too
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Well I've found 24.5 receiving yards for Irv. So max betting that one. Josh Jacobs over 79.5 rushing receiving will be a play. Also really like Najee Harris over 39.5 rushing yards. If the field is somewhat sloppy to bad he will be a factor with his size at 6-2 225-230. Also he is on a mission to have a great game since he is back home in cali. I see him having at least a decent game here
 
Should have clarified... yes, the 2016 SB.

I think the field can still be had for big plays because the defense faces the same obstacles... but you're going to see a ton of slipping tonight.

Oh, and the Red Box bowl was played there a week ago.

The game was 0-0 for 40 minutes
 
I didn't notice the dang juice on the 24.5. So I'm going with the other book at 28.5. Juice was -165 for 24.5 and -120 @28.5
 
Bubbalicious said:
They put down a new field after the Red Box and it has been covered by a tarp when rain each square foot weighs 24lbs from a farm 30 minuts away
BOL gang
Licious
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Putting down a new field won’t help much with slippage. The grass itself can’t possibly be rooted fully in such a short time period. The grass will look better, that’s about it. We’ve seen it time and again when they re-sod a field, and it does nothing but “pretty it up” a bit.
 
Inspekdah said:
Should have clarified... yes, the 2016 SB.

I think the field can still be had for big plays because the defense faces the same obstacles... but you're going to see a ton of slipping tonight.

Oh, and the Red Box bowl was played there a week ago.

The game was 0-0 for 40 minutes
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Thanks.


And as far as the RedBox Bowl. That could have been played on Mars and the score would have been 0-0 after 40 minutes. That score had nothing to do with the field/location.
 
B.A.R. said:
Thanks.


And as far as the RedBox Bowl. That could have been played on Mars and the score would have been 0-0 after 40 minutes. That score had nothing to do with the field/location.
Click to expand...

Certainly didn't help the Ducks speed.
 
KJ said:
Using historical data is lazy at best in a major event.
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To quote a smart man, "You and I cap differently," and "To each his own." What up KJ!;) How are you feeling today, Mondays amirite? Cheers dude. Yo, check this out (and as KJ smartly points out - take it for what it's worth, small sample size and all).

scoring defense and o/u in the postseason
The data I had available from sdql (L13 seasons) contained 23 postseason games in which both defenses allowed 30 or fewer combined ppg. Those 23 games went 16-7 to the over (.696) and 16-1 when the winning team eclipsed 24 points. My number says that Alabama and Clemson have allowed an average of 29.1428571429 combined ppg this season - which fits that situation and unnecessarily disregards the concept of significant figures! (so round to 29 if you feel more comfortable)

ANYWAY I think the game sees between 60 and 66 points, with most of the scoring in the 4Q. That ain't nothing earth-shattering, so take it for what it's worth (because it's just my best guess)! I'm backing Clemson and betting the over. Also, when the dog won straight up the games went over the total all five times. Have fun tonight and remember to always bet emotionally with your hearts.
:cheers2:​
 
austinhous said:
To quote a smart man, "You and I cap differently," and "To each his own." What up KJ!;) How are you feeling today, Mondays amirite? Cheers dude. Yo, check this out (and as KJ smartly points out - take it for what it's worth, small sample size and all).

scoring defense and o/u in the postseason
The data I had available from sdql (L13 seasons) contained 23 postseason games in which both defenses allowed 30 or fewer combined ppg. Those 23 games went 16-7 to the over (.696) and 16-1 when the winning team eclipsed 24 points. My number says that Alabama and Clemson have allowed an average of 29.1428571429 combined ppg this season - which fits that situation and unnecessarily disregards the concept of significant figures! (so round to 29 if you feel more comfortable)

ANYWAY I think the game sees between 60 and 66 points, with most of the scoring in the 4Q. That ain't nothing earth-shattering, so take it for what it's worth (because it's just my best guess)! I'm backing Clemson and betting the over. Also, when the dog won straight up the games went over the total all five times. Have fun tonight and remember to always bet emotionally with your hearts.
:cheers2:​
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Good stuff.

I was looking at the prop bets for a 66 point final as well as 73 point final.

+575 and +400 don't do it for me though.

Thanks for posting!
 
I feel you. 5D has two different wagers that say the final tally will be between 57 and 70 points, with the cleavage between 63/64. That pretty much cuts my prediction in half and I'm not placing two seperate wagers on it, so I'm abstaining from betting those as well. I'm still hoping to find a 4Q "highest scoring quarter" prop, though - usually find those in live betting.
 
My buddy at the game said the field looks good and seem to have the right cleats. He also isn't near sober ( but not drunk) so use that as you wish. I'm live or nothing but think Bama wins 31-23 fwiw. GLTA and hope they give us a good one.
 
captjohn67 said:
My buddy at the game said the field looks good and seem to have the right cleats. He also isn't near sober ( but not drunk) so use that as you wish. I'm live or nothing but think Bama wins 31-23 fwiw. GLTA and hope they give us a good one.
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Thx for the update.
 
The note about the 24 lbs per sq ft was to point out no rooting possible just deep heavy green chunks
They make it espicslly fir fields in grow innplastoc
So I read I am no farmer
Bama-3
Over 28
First half
Tailed above with Irv catches and yards thanks for a great year of sharing info and thoughts
 
Bubbalicious said:
The note about the 24 lbs per sq ft was to point out no rooting possible just deep heavy green chunks
They make it espicslly fir fields in grow innplastoc
So I read I am no farmer
Bama-3
Over 28
First half
Tailed above with Irv catches and yards thanks for a great year of sharing info and thoughts
Click to expand...
Good luck!
 
This spread should be around a FG when you decipher all that's in front of you.

That big Lawrence kid is as a legit an NFL QB I've seen but at the end of the day Alascamma rolls.

Eat a crank, Dabo.
 
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