SB Nation
Five days before the national title game between Clemson and Alabama kicks off, the Crimson Tide are around a 6-point Vegas favorite. General sentiment I’m seeing on Twitter is that the Tigers will be lucky to stay that close, even though gamblers moved the early line a little bit in Clemson’s direction. It appears Alabama has beaten a lot of fans into assuming another blowout like we saw in the 2017 semifinals between these two schools (a 24-6 Bama rout).
The numbers agree with the people actually laying the money, however. ESPN’s FPI separates the two teams by merely 0.3 points and gives Alabama only a 52 percent chance of winning; S&P+ is nearly as bullish on Clemson’s chances, putting the Tigers only 1.0 adjusted points per game behind the defending champs, which also projects to about a 52 percent win probability.
Better yet, if you’re a Clemson fan: if we look only at Clemson’s last nine games — i.e., the games in which quarterback Trevor Lawrence was both the starter and healthy — the Tigers’ S&P+ rating rises to plus-30.2 adjusted points per game, 0.6 points ahead of the Tide. Granted, if we look only at the games in which Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa was most healthy, we see a similar bump.
But while our heads always assume Bama’s going to win any game easily, the spreadsheets suggest otherwise
