My Underdogchance Projected NHL Lines

Underdogchance

Underdogchance

Pretty much a regular
I am new on CTG, so before I start, I will say Hello to everyone :tiphat:
I like statistics and sports, especially NHL and MLB and I want to share my projected lines with you.

My math model contain:
*overall & current form
*goalie performance (for this line, goalie must be the same as listed below, if not, line will change)
*Offensive strength (shots, efficiency & team skill, goals)
*Defensive strength (shots against, goals against, blocked shots)

My math model doesn't contain:
*injuries

It is possible, that I will not post projected lines every day, because I have full time job + family and sometimes simply can not find the time for it, but will try to post lines as much as possible

I will use one topic for my projected lines.

SUNDAY - 21/2/2016

Pittsburgh (Fleury) -130
Buffalo (Lehner)+130

Chicago (Crawford) -101
Minnesota (Dubnyk) +101

Detroit (Mrazek) +139
NY Rangers (Lundqvist) -139

Tampa Bay (Bishop) -105
Carolina (Lack) +105

Calgary (Hiller) +207
Anaheim (Andersen) -207

Colorado (Varlamov) -111
Vancouver (Miller) +111

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
Last edited:
Possible pick:
Anaheim Ducks (-1.5)

impressive streak: Ducks are 26-1 against Flames at home and 21-0 in last 21 games at home.
 
Welcome to the site, Underdogchance. Great first post and thanks for sharing this with everyone. Best of luck today. :cheers3:
 
Underdogchance said:
Possible pick:
Anaheim Ducks (-1.5)

impressive streak: Ducks are 26-1 against Flames at home and 21-0 in last 21 games at home.
Click to expand...

Question on your numbers above, how far off the posted line do you need to be to consider a team a play? You have Anaheim ~13% off market and are looking at -1.5.
 
kdog said:
Question on your numbers above, how far off the posted line do you need to be to consider a team a play? You have Anaheim ~13% off market and are looking at -1.5.
Click to expand...
Good question

In the past I wanted to create a model, which will predict the games and find the edge, value. However, I think the big factor to become very good handicapper is intuition. When I was younger I wanted to create model, who will predict games and find the edge, value. I think it is not enough, when I become older and older, I knot it is true.
I think combination of everything (statistics and models, intuition, experience, good informations, game by game analysis,...) will make a good handicapper. I am in sports business for almost 20 years. I lived 4 years only from betting and right now, this is just my passion or if you want - a hobby. I like to win games, I like to predict games and excitement, I like to play with the numbers and at the end of the day if is possible to make some money.

Most of the people like sports and they can find good informations but I believe most of them don't have any mathematical model to predict starting raw lines and compare them with bookmakers lines. I want to share my projected lines with people and some of them may find something useful.

So back to your question.
I don't have strict rule how big has to be the value/edge to become my official play, because I will always include all other factors, which are not included in my math model and at the end my intuition and experience have a big role. Why? Because my math model is not perfect, i think it is good, but not close to perfect. I know it. It gives me raw picture what can happen and where is the edge. I also rarely go against my odds.

I also don't like to play games with odd lower than -130. In those cases I will take puck line. I also try to minimize my plays per day. Right now I play 1 game per day. Even if I lose, I have next day to make better selections. In the past when i played 10 games for example in MLB and went 1-9 it was hard...
 
Days between games - rest days. 0, 1, 2, 3, 4+
--------------------------
Win% - wins/games played
GF/g - goals per game
GA/g - goals per game against
G diff - (GF/g - GA/g)
SF/g - shots per game
SA/g - shots per game against
SHOTS diff - (SF/g - SA/g)
--------------------------------

NHL Season 2015/2016:
[TABLE="width: 313"]
<colgroup><col><col span="4"></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]0 days[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1 days[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.455445545[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.524404086[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.534653465[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.684449489[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.759075908[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.598183882[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.224422442[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.086265607[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28.669967[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.90011351[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.85808581[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.59023837[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-2.188118812[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.309875142[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2 days[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]3 days[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.494652406[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.483870968[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.614973262[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.559139785[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.655080214[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.548387097[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.040106952[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.010752688[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.18983957[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]28.91397849[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.36898396[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.8172043[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.820855615[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.903225806[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4+ [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.457943925[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.785046729[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.728971963[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.056074766[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.91588785[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.35514019[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.560747664[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

-------------
NHL since 1/8/2005
---------------
0 days rest (total of 4574 NHL games)
[TABLE="width: 130"]
<!--StartFragment--> <colgroup><col width="65" span="2" style="width:65pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 65"]0 days[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.454306952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.643856581[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.912330564[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.268473983[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.10975077[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.79033669[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.68058592[/TD]
[/TR]
<!--EndFragment--></tbody>[/TABLE]

1 day rest (total of 13291 NHL games)
[TABLE="width: 130"]
<!--StartFragment--> <colgroup><col width="65" span="2" style="width:65pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 65"]1 days[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.509517719[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.772402378[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.734632458[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.037769919[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]30.07034836[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.6754947[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.39485366[/TD]
[/TR]
<!--EndFragment--></tbody>[/TABLE]


2 days rest (total of 4897 NHL games)
[TABLE="width: 130"]
<!--StartFragment--> <colgroup><col width="65" span="2" style="width:65pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 65"]2 days[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.519297529[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.79477231[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.676740862[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.118031448[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.96589749[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.63059016[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.335307331[/TD]
[/TR]
<!--EndFragment--></tbody>[/TABLE]

3 days rest (total of 1376 games)
[TABLE="width: 130"]
<!--StartFragment--> <colgroup><col width="65" span="2" style="width:65pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 65"]3 days[/TD]
[TD="width: 65"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.497819767[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.805959302[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.725290698[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.080668605[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.88444767[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.47674419[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.407703488[/TD]
[/TR]
<!--EndFragment--></tbody>[/TABLE]


4+ days rest (total of 1200 games)
[TABLE="width: 130"]
<!--StartFragment--> <colgroup><col width="65" span="2" style="width:65pt"> </colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD="width: 65"]4+ [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]W%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.4925[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.828333333[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.7975[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.030833333[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.9475[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29.75083333[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SHOTS diff[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.196666667[/TD]
[/TR]
<!--EndFragment--></tbody>[/TABLE]

It looks like the teams play the best with 1 or 2 days off between games.
 
Underdogchance said:
Possible pick:
Anaheim Ducks (-1.5)

impressive streak: Ducks are 26-1 against Flames at home and 21-0 in last 21 games at home.
Click to expand...

Hope you played the Ducks, my friend. Very nice call and that was a great stat. I'm kicking myself because I thought I was a 7 pm PST start...
 
Note: goalie must be the same as listed below, if not, line will change

MONDAY - 22/2/2016

Columbus (Korpisalo) +152
Boston (Rask) -152

Arizona (Domingue) +199
Washington (Holtby) -199

Nashville (Rinne) -104
Montreal (Condon) +104

San Jose (Jones) -125
St Louis (Elliot) +125

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
WISEGUY36 said:
Interesting Data . Thanks for posting :shake:
Click to expand...
:cheers3:

I like Montreal today.
Nashville is just 12-17 on the road and Montreal is tough place to play,they are 3-6 in last 9 games and Montreal will play hard, especially after that with Subban and Therrien and a win against Philadelphia gave them little momentum.
 
Note: goalie must be the same as listed below, if not, line will change

TUESDAY - 23/2/2016

NY Rangers (Lundqvist) -152
New Jersey Devils (Schneider) +152

Philadelphia (Mason) +129
Carolina (Lack) -129

Columbus (Korpisalo) +160
Detroit (Mrazek) -160

NY Islanders (Halak) +117
Minnesota (Dubnyk) -117

Dallas (Niemi) +101
Winnipeg (Pavelec) -101

Ottawa (Anderson) +104
Edmonton (Talbot) -104

Calgary (Hiller) +209
LA Kings (Quick) -209

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
Welcome to the forum.

I also like to use models, as baseline for my plays. You have posted some great info, and I have a question for you:

On your posted lines, you do not account for the spread between the favorite and the dog. For example, in the NHL, I only play at books that offer a .10 spread. So using the Rangers game above as an example, on a $.10 spread the odds would be:

NYR -152
NJ +142

On a $.20 spread:
NYR -152
NJ +132

I'm sure you are aware of this, since you have been in the game for a long time, so I'm interested to understand why you do not include the true return on the dog based off your line for the favorite.

Thanks for the feedback, and good luck!
 
smh212 said:
Welcome to the forum.

I also like to use models, as baseline for my plays. You have posted some great info, and I have a question for you:

On your posted lines, you do not account for the spread between the favorite and the dog. For example, in the NHL, I only play at books that offer a .10 spread. So using the Rangers game above as an example, on a $.10 spread the odds would be:

NYR -152
NJ +142

On a $.20 spread:
NYR -152
NJ +132

I'm sure you are aware of this, since you have been in the game for a long time, so I'm interested to understand why you do not include the true return on the dog based off your line for the favorite.

Thanks for the feedback, and good luck!
Click to expand...

Why would he account for that? If you are modeling your model makes a number on a game and that tells you which side you should be interested in/bet. In your example on the NYR/NJ game if his model spits out NYR -152 he's not going to bet NJ unless it's higher than that whether a book is dealing .10 lines or .50 lines.
 
smh212 said:
Welcome to the forum.

I also like to use models, as baseline for my plays. You have posted some great info, and I have a question for you:

On your posted lines, you do not account for the spread between the favorite and the dog. For example, in the NHL, I only play at books that offer a .10 spread. So using the Rangers game above as an example, on a $.10 spread the odds would be:

NYR -152
NJ +142

On a $.20 spread:
NYR -152
NJ +132

I'm sure you are aware of this, since you have been in the game for a long time, so I'm interested to understand why you do not include the true return on the dog based off your line for the favorite.

Thanks for the feedback, and good luck!
Click to expand...

Good question and I will try to explain it. A lot of people don't understand the concept of whole thing, so I will try to explain on simple way also for someone who is new in sports betting.
And here is why I don't include the margin (your 0.1 you mention above) and I think you should not include too, because it is wrong....

When Team A plays against Team B, if we take an example in NHL, is one event with couple of possible outcomes (A wins, B wins, tie, SO, terrorist attack...whatever you like). But let's make an example for moneyline with two possible outcomes (Team A wins, team B wins). My question is what is the chance that Team A will win and what is the question that Team B will win. When we bet on moneyline, there are only two outcomes (Team A wins, Team B wins). Some people will say, that the question should be, who will win? But this is wrong. In such a events, any team can win, the only difference are the chances of one team to win a game and chances of another team.

So, I want to know what are the "chance" or probability, that team A will win. And what is the chance or probability, that team B will win. In this case we have two possible outcomes:
1. Team A wins
2. Team B wins

Nothing else. At the end of the day in NHL, we will have a winner. Right? So, sum of probabilities is 100%. For example, Team A has a 60% and team B has 40%, sum is 100%. Thats all. And my math model shows me what are those probabilities, nothing more, nothing less.

Let's go further...

Those probabilities have some price, value or whatever you call it. If I want to bet on a team, which has 50% of chance, the fair price (if we convert probabilities into odds or lines) is 2.00 (european odds) and +100 (american odds). This means, that the other probability (in this case), for other team is also 50% and the same odds. This also mean, that if you put $100 on one team and at the same time on other team. You will not lose any money and you will not win any money. Right? ($100 on Team A +100, $100 on team B at the same time, profit/loss=0).

However, the bookmakers have to live somehow, so they "invented" margins. And you will have for 50%-50% game odds of -110 vs -110. So, you have to put $10 more for $100 of profit. There are bookmakers who will have bigger margins and also bookmakers, who will have lower margins. Some bookmakers will offer you -105 vs -105 for example. But this is not that important right now.

The important question for me is what is the price for my event. What they give me, what they offer me? No matter what margin bookmakers have. If my math model shows, that Team A has a 50% chance to win a game, I would make this line at +100 (or 2.00 eu odds). This is something what I would expect. This is the true reflection (for me and my math model) what true odds should be. Or if you want i want to know, what is the price for my probability of this game.

If bookmakers give me +130, that team A will win (in our example), this mean, that I will get +$30 more, than what I would expect. And this is good. I don't really care if bookmaker is .10 margin or 0.05 margin, because my projected lines are just probabilities converted into odds. Of course, bookmakers with lower margins will usually have better odds, but for my probability I don't need to put margin inside.

Why are you wrong?
Let's take an example for 50%-50% game for better understanding.

When I calculate probabilities in game, when team A plays team B, I see two outcomes. Win A, Win B. Probability, that team A will win + probability, that team B will win is 100%. Right? (it can not be 120%).
So my lines for 50%-50% are +100 vs +100

Your lines for calculated "50%-50% game" are not +100 vs +100, but are -110 vs -110. In fact you say, that team A has a chance of around 52% and team B also has a chance of around 52%. 52% + 52% = 104%. And this is wrong. Because your model always shows you only the probabilities of team A and team B to win a game (for example). You don't need to put margins inside, because this is not anymore right probability.

So...
1. My math model shows me probabilities.
2. One game is an event and "something" will happen at the end. Sum of everything at the end is 100%.
3. There are only 2 possible outcomes (in this example). Probability (Team A wins) + Probability (Team B wins) = 100%.
4. I convert those probabilities into odds/lines
5. When I have my own lines, I see the price, which I (at least) expect from bookmaker
6. I try to bet on a team (outcome of an event), where someone (bookmaker) will pay me more, than I would expect from my calculated probabilities.

I hope I answered on your question.
 
DaRaiders said:
This is great information.
Will you be posting the games you play?
Click to expand...

In the first post I mentioned, that I have a full time job and I know, that I will not have time to post plays and projected lines every day. But this year I am going to quit my current job and will have much more time. Then we will see. In 2017 I will release plays & lines every day (in MLB and NHL).

My pick today is Carolina. I also like Toronto for this price (+141). But I play 1 game per day. Today is Carolina.
 
WEDNESDAY - 24/2/2016

Montreal (Condon) +223
Washington (Holtby) -223

Pittsburgh (Fleury) -113
Boston (Rask) +113

San Jose (Jones) -176
Colorado (Pickard) +176

Buffalo (Lehner) +236
Anaheim (Andersen) -236

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
Underdogchance said:
In the first post I mentioned, that I have a full time job and I know, that I will not have time to post plays and projected lines every day. But this year I am going to quit my current job and will have much more time. Then we will see. In 2017 I will release plays & lines every day (in MLB and NHL).

My pick today is Carolina. I also like Toronto for this price (+141). But I play 1 game per day. Today is Carolina.
Click to expand...

Am I missing something here? In your numbers for Tuesday posted above you have Carolina -129 which is right where they opened before moving upward to the ~140 close. Wouldn't that indicate that your model says the line is dead on and there is no value in Carolina at that price or higher? If so and you trust your model why would you play it and post it as your pick of the day?
 
kdog said:
Am I missing something here? In your numbers for Tuesday posted above you have Carolina -129 which is right where they opened before moving upward to the ~140 close. Wouldn't that indicate that your model says the line is dead on and there is no value in Carolina at that price or higher? If so and you trust your model why would you play it and post it as your pick of the day?
Click to expand...

You are missing something, yes. I already answered you on this if you read between the lines couple of posts above...

Underdogchance said:
Good question

In the past I wanted to create a model, which will predict the games and find the edge, value. However, I think the big factor to become very good handicapper is intuition. When I was younger I wanted to create model, who will predict games and find the edge, value. I think it is not enough, when I become older and older, I knot it is true.
I think combination of everything (statistics and models, intuition, experience, good informations, game by game analysis,...) will make a good handicapper. I am in sports business for almost 20 years. I lived 4 years only from betting and right now, this is just my passion or if you want - a hobby. I like to win games, I like to predict games and excitement, I like to play with the numbers and at the end of the day if is possible to make some money.

Most of the people like sports and they can find good informations but I believe most of them don't have any mathematical model to predict starting raw lines and compare them with bookmakers lines. I want to share my projected lines with people and some of them may find something useful.

So back to your question.
I don't have strict rule how big has to be the value/edge to become my official play, because I will always include all other factors, which are not included in my math model and at the end my intuition and experience have a big role. Why? Because my math model is not perfect, i think it is good, but not close to perfect. I know it. It gives me raw picture what can happen and where is the edge. I also rarely go against my odds.

I also don't like to play games with odd lower than -130. In those cases I will take puck line. I also try to minimize my plays per day. Right now I play 1 game per day. Even if I lose, I have next day to make better selections. In the past when i played 10 games for example in MLB and went 1-9 it was hard...
Click to expand...

For Carolina game. I took them for -124. I live in Europe and a lot of time (most of the time) I use early odds, this is the time, when you in US are still sleeping. In my first post I said, that my model don't include injuries (which is not ok, I know it, I will try to solve this issue, when I will have more time), but still I think it is pretty good and can help me and other NHL handicappers in some way. So, why I took Carolina? First of all I liked, that Carolina had better chance to win (my probabilities and with my math model -129) and with -124 (this is what bookmaker offered me) I had small value. Secondly, there were two more key factors: Giroux was out for Philadelphia and Faulk was in for Carolina. Based on numbers from Hockey Reference, Faulk is most important player for Carolina (point shares) and Giroux is 2nd most important skater for Philadelphia. In reality Giroux is the leader and most important player for Philadelphia. With those two informations, the probability for Carolina's win should be even bigger. I also like the play and I pull the trigger with Carolina. At the end of the day, when I saw that Philadelphia will start with backup goalie, I was even more confident. Carolina won at the end. Philadelphia was better team yesterday, but those are the reasons in short, why I took them.

There were also couple of other games, where it was mathematical value, but i didn't like them (for example NYR).

Today for example, I have Pittsburgh for -111 and the bookmakers have them as a dog - this is legitimate play. However, I don't like Pittsburgh, because they have couple of injured/questionable players including Evgeni Malkin, which is big loss.

I believe (some will disagree, some will agree, but this is what I believe) that combination of couple of difference approaches will make good handicapper. I think I have some experience and I want to use my intuition. My math model is for me huuuge tool, but I don't blindly follow it. At the end I decide what I will take.

I also believe, that there are a lot of guys, who love sports and sports betting. They watch games and they develop good intuition, but they don't know or don't have any math model behind. This is why i share my projected lines. I use them as a huge tool, I use them as most important tool, when I have to decide what I will play. I like to handicapp games. I also believe, that the best coaches, managers and other successful people will always use their intuition too. The best and most amazing decisions from most amazing people were made because of their intuition at the end. If we use only statistics, then we can make program and the programme will calculate what are optimal players and optimal tactics for different situations. Then we don't need managers and coaches anymore. Computer would tell you, use this and this tactic.... But of course it is not like this.

Teams will use statistics and models as a tool, but at the end of the day Belichick will still decide how will they play. And the same is with me. The heart and the biggest part of my prediction is my math model. But it is just one part and to make final bet, I have to connect all the dots and sometimes (even if this is not very often) I will go against my odds and will simply listen to my inner voice.

I hope I answered your question.

Today I play Washington (-1.5) +142
Montreal is without Price and they are not even close to the team, they were at the start of the season. Even more, they will have even more injured players for this game. Gilbert is out for the season, Beaulieu will miss the game, Dale Weise is questionable, Desharnais, Petry, Flynn and Carr already out.
Washington is maybe the best team in NHL right now. They won 3 straight games by 1 goal. It is time to beat someone with 2 or more. They have +61 goal difference in the league. For better understanding how good they are, next team is Chicago with +28 and then Dallas with +27.

I Don't like Pittsburgh because of injuries.
I don't like San Jose in Colorado, because Colorado is still tough place to play.

Good luck to all, whatever you take.
 
So you spend all this time building a hockey model (no small task) to tell you where there is value in the lines and then disregard what it says and bet on feel? Sounds like me with baseball. :)
 
THURSDAY - 25/2/2016

Minnesota (Dubnyk) +136
Philadelphia (Neuvirth) -136

New Jersey (Schneider) +123
Columbus (Korpisalo) -123

Carolina (Ward) -137
Toronto (Bernier) +137

Arizona (Domingue) +138
Florida (Luongo) -138

Nashville (Rinne) +133
Chicago (Crawford) -133

NY Rangers (Lundqvist) -123
St Louis (Allen) +123

Winnipeg (Hutchinson) +141
Dallas (Niemi) -141

NY Islanders (Halak) -118
Calgary (Ortio) +118

Ottawa (Anderson) -119
Vancouver (Miller) +119

Edmonton (Talbot) +232
Los Angeles (Quick) -232

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
Tampa Bay (Bishop) -118
New Jersey (Schneider) +118

Minnesota (Dubnyk) +123
Washington (Holtby) -123

Boston (Rask) +153
Carolina (Ward) -153

Edmonton (Talbot) +310
Anaheim (Andersen) -310

Buffalo (Johnson) +192
San Jose (Jones) -192

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
SATURDAY - 27/2/2016

Arizona (Domingue) +140
Philadelphia (Mason) -140

Winnipeg (Pavelec) +193
Pittsburgh (Fleury) -193

Florida (Luongo) +102
CBJ (Korpisalo) -102

St Louis (Allen) +149
Nashville (Rinne) -149

NY Rangers (Lundqvist) -105
Dallas (Niemi) +105

Toronto (Reimer) +119
Montreal (Condon) -119

Detroit (Mrazek) -123
Colorado (Varlamov) +123

Ottawa (Anderson) +105
Calgary (Hiller) -105

Buffalo (Lehner) +196
LAK (Quick) -196

Good Luck to all!
 
Keep an eye on Buffalo. Not sure Lehner played last night...Buffalo on B2B. Enroh listed as likely for LA. Calgary looking considering Ortio. Lehtonen could play in Dallas.

GL
 
SUNDAY - 28/2/2016

Washington (Holtby) -107
Chicago (Crawford) +107

St Louis (Allen) +155
Carolina (Ward) -155

Florida (Loungo) +122
Minnesota (Kuemper) -122

Tampa Bay (Bishop) -109
Boston (Rask) +109

San Jose (Jones) -186
Vancouver (Miller) +186

Los Angeles (Quick) +124
Anaheim (Gibson) -124

NY Islanders (Halak) -143
Edmonton (Talbot) +143

Good Luck to all!
 
MONDAY - 29/2/2016

Calgary (Hiller) +197
Philadelphia (Neuvirth) -197

Columbus (Korpisalo) +143
NY Rangers (Raanta) -143

Detroit (Mrazek) +102
Dallas (Niemi) -102

Montreal (Condon) +190
San Jose (Jones) -190

Arizona (Domingue) +196
Pittsburgh (Fleury) -196

Tampa Bay (Vasilevskiy) -125
Toronto (Sparks) +125

Good Luck to all!
 
TUESDAY 1/3/2016


<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="233"><col width="181"><col width="103"><col width="104"><col width="203"></colgroup><tbody>
[TD="bgcolor: #000000"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000000, align: center"]Game[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000000, align: center"]Proj. Goalie[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000000, align: center"]Proj. Win%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000000, align: center"]Proj. Odds[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000000, align: center"]Projected Moneyline[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Jonas Hiller[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]40.10%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]2.49[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Calgary +149[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Boston Bruins[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Tuukka Rask[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]59.80%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]1.67[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Boston -149[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Cam Ward[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]53.45%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]1.87[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Carolina -115[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]New Jersey Devils[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Cory Schneider[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]46.55%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]2.15[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]New Jersey +115[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Edmonton Oilers[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Cam Talbot[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]41.80%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]2.39[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Edmonton +139[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Buffalo Sabres[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Robin Lehner[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]58.19%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]1.72[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Buffalo -139[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Jake Allen[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]44.41%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]2.25[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]St Louis +125[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Ottawa Senators[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Craig Anderson[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]55.57%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]1.80[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Ottawa -125[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Marc-Andre Fleury[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]45.15%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]2.21[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Pittsburgh +121[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Braden Holtby[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]54.80%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]1.82[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Washington -121[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Dallas Stars[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Antti Niemi[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]42.32%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]2.36[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Dallas +136[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Pekka Rinne[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]57.65%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]1.73[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Nashville -136[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Semyon Varlamov[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]36.17%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]2.77[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Colorado +177[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Minnesota Wild[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]63.81%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]1.57[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Minnesota -177[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Roberto Luongo[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]50.23%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]1.99[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Florida -101[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Ondrej Pavelec[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]49.76%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]2.01[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #f2dbdb, align: center"]Winnipeg +101[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Away[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Jaroslav Halak[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]59.35%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]1.69[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]NY Islanders -146[/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Home[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Vancouver Canucks[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Ryan Miller[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]40.62%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]2.46[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #dbe5f1, align: center"]Vancouver +146[/TD]

</tbody>
 
WEDNESDAY - 2/3/2016

Toronto (Bernier) +304
Washington (Grubauer) -304

Chicago (Crawford) +105
Detroit (Howard) -105

Montreal (Condon) +241
Anaheim (Gibson) -241

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
THURSDAY - 3/3/2016

Chicago (Crawford) +105
Boston (Rask) -105

Calgary (Hiller) +131
Buffalo (Lehner) -131

Edmonton (Talbot) +191
Philadelphia (Mason) -191

NY Rangers (Lundqvist) +142
Pittsburgh (Fleury) -142

Minnesota (Dubnyk) -144
Toronto (Bernier) +144

Tampa Bay (Bishop) -152
Ottawa (Hammond) +152

NY Islanders (Halak) -128
Winnipeg (Pavelec) +128

New Jersej (Kinkaid) +199
Nashville (Rinne) -199

Florida (Luongo) -106
Colorado (Pickard) +106

Anaheim (Gibson) -179
Arizona (Domingue) +179

San Jose (Jones) -187
Vancouver (Markstrom) +187

Montreal (Scrivens) +198
Los Angeles (Quick) -198

Good Luck to all! :shake:


 
FRIDAY - 4/3/2016

NY Rangers (Lundqvist) +151
Washington (Holtby) -151

Edmonton (Talbot) +141
Columbus (Korpisalo) -141

New Jersey (Schneider) +143
Dallas (Niemi) -143

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
Schneider confirmed in for New Jersey and with the way Dallas has played lately (lost 7 of last 8) how can you not take a shot with the Devils at +195ish?

edit: 5Dimes has NJ -.5 in reg at +322. That's worth lunch money imo.
 
Last edited:
kdog said:
Schneider confirmed in for New Jersey and with the way Dallas has played lately (lost 7 of last 8) how can you not take a shot with the Devils at +195ish?

edit: 5Dimes has NJ -.5 in reg at +322. That's worth lunch money imo.
Click to expand...

Agree with you about Devils.

Corrected lines because of goalie changes:
NYR +168
Edmonton +160
NJD +148
 
SATURDAY - 5/3/2016

Away Minnesota Wild Devan Dubnyk 52.34% 1.91 Minnesota -110
Home Buffalo Sabres Robin Lehner 47.65% 2.10 Buffalo +110

Away Calgary Flames Joni Ortio 29.95% 3.34 Calgary +234
Home Pittsburgh Penguins Marc-Andre Fleury 69.93% 1.43 Pittsburgh -234

Away Nashville Predators Pekka Rinne 54.21% 1.84 Nashville -118
Home Colorado Avalanche Calvin Pickard 45.77% 2.18 Colorado +118

Away Anaheim Ducks John Gibson 48.93% 2.04 Anaheim +104
Home Los Angeles Kings Jonathan Quick 51.05% 1.96 Los Angeles -104

Away Montréal Canadiens Mike Condon 45.26% 2.21 Montreal +121
Home Winnipeg Jets Ondrej Pavelec 54.72% 1.83 Winnipeg -121

Away Columbus Blue Jackets Joonas Korpisalo 39.44% 2.54 Columbus +154
Home Philadelphia Flyers Steve Mason 60.52% 1.65 Philadelphia -154

Away Carolina Hurricanes Cam Ward 38.63% 2.59 Carolina +159
Home Tampa Bay Lightning Ben Bishop 61.35% 1.63 Tampa Bay -159

Away Ottawa Senators Andrew Hammond 50.15% 1.99 Ottawa -101
Home Toronto Maple Leafs Jonathan Bernier 49.81% 2.01 Toronto +101

Away Washington Capitals Philipp Grubauer 56.15% 1.78 Washington -128
Home Boston Bruins Tuukka Rask 43.79% 2.28 Boston +128

Away Florida Panthers Roberto Luongo 52.21% 1.92 Florida -109
Home Arizona Coyotes Louis Domingue 47.78% 2.09 Arizona +109

Away Vancouver Canucks Ryan Miller 24.39% 4.10 Vancouver +310
Home San Jose Sharks James Reimer 75.53% 1.32 San Jose -310

Good Luck to all! :shake:
 
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