MLB 2016 - Projected Lines and Picks by Underdog Chance

[Underdogchance]

MONDAY - 18/7/2016

MLB 2016: -6048.9 Units
LAST PICKS: -595.60 Units
MLB 2016 YIELD: -8.82%
AVG MLB RISK: 213.71 Units
AVG MLB LINE: +118
MLB PICKS PLAYED: 318
Overall 2016 (inc. NHL): -4375.64 (yield: -5.58% / 402 Picks)
Starting Bankroll (11/3/2016): 10.000[FONT=&amp]
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[/FONT]Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) +181 (110 Units = 1.96%)
Atlanta Braves (Wisler) +123 (165 Units = 2.93%)
San Diego Padres (Friedrich) +160 (105 Units = 1.87%)
Baltimore Orioles (Gausman) -114 (75 Units = 1.33%)
Minnesota Twins (Nolasco) +128 (145 Units = 2.58%)
Cleveland Indians (Kluber) -152 (110 Units = 1.96%)
LA Angels (Tropeano) -109 (140 Units = 2.49%)

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Pitcher Win% odds


Marlins Jose Fernandez 58.31% 1.79
Phillies Aaron Nola 41.69% 2.26


Braves Matt Wisler 55.64% 1.80
Reds Brandon Finnegan 44.36% 2.25


Mets Steven Matz 44.56% 2.24
Cubs Jon Lester 55.44% 1.80


Padres Christian Friedrich 46.16% 2.17
Cardinals Mike Leake 53.83% 1.86


Orioles Kevin Gausman 57.55% 1.74
Yankees Ivan Nova 42.44% 2.36


Twins Ricky Nolasco 53.59% 1.87
Tigers Matt Boyd 46.41% 2.15


Indians Corey Kluber 65.58% 1.52
Royals Edinson Volquez 34.42% 2.91


Astros Mike Fiers 57.52% 1.74
Athletics Kendall Graveman 42.47% 2.35


Rangers A.J. Griffin 39.82% 2.51
Angels Nicholas Tropeano 60.17% 1.66


White Sox Chris Sale 52.20% 1.92
Mariners Wade LeBlanc 47.79% 2.09


Rays Drew Smyly 45.68% 2.19
Rockies Tyler Anderson 54.32% 1.84

 

[Underdogchance]

Note: I was doing on my math model last month or so. I changed a couple of things. I posted picks here, where I followed my old math model and I made awful results. Until the end of the season, I will post just projected lines and will test my new model, which is much better. I include some other factors and exclude some old. There may be some picks too, but for now, I will focus on my math model until the end of the season and see how it works. I am still doing on home/away advantage, but I hope will find the right solution until the end of the season and hopefully we will have great season next year. Until then, here are my projected lines....

FRIDAY - 29/7/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline

Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma 135
Cubs Jon Lester -135

Cardinals Mike Leake 110
Marlins Jose Urena -110

Rockies Tyler Chatwood 198
Mets Steven Matz -198

Phillies Vincent Velasquez -189
Braves Tyrell Jenkins 189

Pirates Steven Brault -120
Brewers Junior Guerra 120

Diamondbacks Zack Godley 186
Dodgers Kenta Maeda -186

Nationals Max Scherzer -132
Giants Jeff Samardzija 132

Reds Brandon Finnegan -112
Padres Edwin Jackson 112

Orioles Kevin Gausman 106
Blue Jays Marco Estrada -106

Yankees Ivan Nova 127
Rays Jake Odorizzi -127

Athletics Kendall Graveman 158
Indians Trevor Bauer -158

Astros Collin Mchugh -101
Tigers Matt Boyd 101

Royals Edinson Volquez 117
Rangers A.J. Griffin -117

White Sox Jose Quintana 107
Twins Ricky Nolasco -107

Red Sox Rick Porcello -135
Angels Tim Lincecum 135

 

[HUNT]

Gl today bro

 

[Underdogchance]

Gl today bro

Thanks man :shake:

SATURDAY - 30/7/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline
Phillies Jeremy Hellickson 110
Braves Julio Teheran -110

Pirates Jameson Taillon -161
Brewers Chase Anderson 161

Rockies Jorge De La Rosa 158
Mets Bartolo Colon -158

Reds Anthony DeSclafani -104
Padres Christian Friedrich 104

Diamondbacks Braden Shipley 201
Dodgers Scott Kazmir -201

Orioles Yovani Gallardo 165
Blue Jays J.A. Happ -165

Yankees Nathan Eovaldi 145
Rays Drew Smyly -145

White Sox Miguel Gonzalez 128
Twins Tommy Milone -128

Athletics Dillon Overton 205
Indians Josh Tomlin -205

Astros Mike Fiers 134
Tigers Justin Verlander -134

Royals Ian Kennedy -118
Rangers Martin Perez 118

Red Sox Drew Pomeranz -152
Angels Hector Santiago 152

Mariners Wade Miley 148
Cubs Jake Arrieta -148

Cardinals Jaime Garcia -141
Marlins Colin Rea 141

Nationals Reynaldo Lopez -214
Giants Jake Peavy 214

 

[HUNT]

Good luck again. I like how you tweak things and hit stubborn to one way.

 

[Underdogchance]

:shake2:

 

[Underdogchance]

SATURDAY - 6/8/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline

Indians Corey Kluber -163
Yankees CC Sabathia 163

Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez -101
Dodgers Ross Stripling 102

Cubs Jake Arrieta -118
Athletics Sonny Gray 118

Reds Homer Bailey 126
Pirates Ivan Nova -126

Giants Matt Cain 230
Nationals Stephen Strasburg -230

Braves Roberto Hernandez #N/A
Cardinals Carlos Martinez #N/A

Marlins Andrew Cashner 139
Rockies Chad Bettis -139

Brewers Matt Garza -105
Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin 105

Phillies Jake Thompson #N/A
Padres Paul Clemens #N/A

Twins Jose Berrios 108
Rays Chris Archer -108

Orioles Chris Tillman 117
White Sox Carlos Rodon -117

Rangers Lucas Harrell 127
Astros Doug Fister -127

Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez -104
Royals Danny Duffy 104

Angels Tyler Skaggs -112
Mariners Taijuan Walker 112

Mets Logan Verrett 228
Tigers Matt Boyd -227

 

[Underdogchance]

SUNDAY - 7/8/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline

Reds Dan Straily 171
Pirates Gerrit Cole -171

Giants Madison Bumgarner 105
Nationals Tanner Roark -105

Braves Mike Foltynewicz 161
Cardinals Adam Wainwright -161

Marlins Adam Conley 130
Rockies Jon Gray -130

Brewers Jimmy Nelson -104
Diamondbacks Archie Bradley 104

Phillies Jerad Eickhoff -106
Padres Jarred Cosart 106

Indians Carlos Carrasco -116
Yankees Masahiro Tanaka 116

Twins Kyle Gibson -117
Rays Matt Andriese 117

Orioles Dylan Bundy -163
White Sox James Shields 163

Rangers Yu Darvish #N/A
Astros Joe Musgrove #N/A

Blue Jays Marcus Stroman -185
Royals Yordano Ventura 185

Angels Matt Shoemaker 115
Mariners james Paxton -115

Mets Jacob deGrom 104
Tigers Anibal Sanchez -104

Cubs Kyle Hendricks -113
Athletics Sean Manaea 113

Red Sox David Price -111
Dodgers Brandon Mccarthy 111

 

[Underdogchance]

TUESDAY - 9/8/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline Win% odds

Rangers A.J. Griffin 108 51.99% 2.08
Rockies Tyler Chatwood -108 48.01% 1.92

Padres Luis Perdomo -119 54.39% 1.84
Pirates Chad Kuhl 119 45.61% 2.19

Giants Matt Moore 163 37.95% 2.63
Marlins Tom Koehler -163 62.03% 1.61

Diamondbacks Zack Greinke 135 42.60% 2.35
Mets Steven Matz -135 57.40% 1.74

Braves Tyrell Jenkins 204 32.91% 3.04
Brewers Wily Peralta -204 67.07% 1.49

Reds Brandon Finnegan 223 30.96% 3.23
Cardinals Mike Leake -223 69.04% 1.45

Phillies Vincent Velasquez 182 35.46% 2.82
Dodgers Kenta Maeda -182 64.54% 1.55

Rays Drew Smyly 105 48.83% 2.05
Blue Jays Marco Estrada -105 51.17% 1.95

Yankees Luis Severino 169 37.23% 2.69
Red Sox Rick Porcello -169 62.76% 1.59

Astros Mike Fiers 158 38.75% 2.58
Twins Hector Santiago -158 61.25% 1.63

White Sox Chris Sale -112 52.76% 1.90
Royals Edinson Volquez 112 47.24% 2.12

Orioles Wade Miley 123 44.87% 2.23
Athletics Zachary Neal -123 55.13% 1.81

Tigers Daniel Norris -145 59.11% 1.69
Mariners Wade LeBlanc 145 40.89% 2.45

Indians Trevor Bauer 170 37.10% 2.70
Nationals Max Scherzer -170 62.90% 1.59

Angels Jered Weaver 209 32.34% 3.09
Cubs John Lackey -209 67.65% 1.48

 

[Underdogchance]

WEDNESDAY - 10/8/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline Win% odds

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline Win% odds

Giants Jeff Samardzija 165 41.70% 2.65
Marlins David Phelps -165 58.29% 1.61

Phillies Jeremy Hellickson 205 32.80% 3.05
Dodgers Scott Kazmir -205 67.20% 1.49

Padres Edwin Jackson 280 26.28% 3.80
Pirates Ryan Vogelsong -280 73.71% 1.36

Diamondbacks Robbie Ray 109 47.96% 2.09
Mets Bartolo Colon -109 52.04% 1.92

Reds Anthony Desclafani 178 35.91% 2.78
Cardinals Jaime Garcia -178 64.09% 1.56

Braves Joel De La Cruz 182 35.40% 2.82
Brewers Chase Anderson -182 64.59% 1.55

Rays Blake Snell 109 47.96% 2.09
Blue Jays J.A. Happ -109 52.04% 1.92

Yankees Nathan Eovaldi 175 36.41% 2.75
Red Sox Drew Pomeranz -175 63.59% 1.57

Astros Dallas Keuchel 147 40.47% 2.47
Twins Ervin Santana -147 59.53% 1.68

White Sox Jose Quintana 117 46.08% 2.17
Royals Ian Kennedy -117 53.92% 1.85

Orioles Yovani Gallardo #N/A #N/A #N/A
Athletics Ross Detwiler #N/A #N/A #N/A

Tigers Justin Verlander -126 55.70% 1.80
Mariners Felix Hernandez 126 44.29% 2.26

Indians Josh Tomlin 106 48.63% 2.06
Nationals Gio Gonzalez -106 51.37% 1.95

Angels Ricky Nolasco 128 43.87% 2.28
Cubs Jason Hammel -128 56.13% 1.78

Rockies Jorge De La Rosa 119 45.75% 2.19
Rangers Martin Perez -119 54.24% 1.84

 

[Underdogchance]

THURSDAY - 11/8/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline Win% odds

Diamondbacks Braden Shipley 366 25.46% 4.66
Mets Noah Syndergaard -366 74.53% 1.27

Padres Christian Friedrich 197 33.72% 2.97
Pirates Jameson Taillon -197 66.28% 1.51

Braves Roberto Hernandez 107 48.26% 2.07
Brewers Matt Garza -107 51.74% 1.93

Cardinals Carlos Martinez 145 40.74% 2.45
Cubs Jon Lester -145 59.26% 1.69

Astros Doug Fister 224 30.91% 3.24
Twins Jose Berrios -223 69.09% 1.45

Orioles Chris Tillman -151 60.08% 1.66
Athletics Andrew Triggs 151 39.91% 2.51

Yankees Michael Pineda -117 53.81% 1.86
Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez 117 46.19% 2.17

Angels Jhoulys Chacin 273 26.78% 3.73
Indians Corey Kluber -273 73.21% 1.37

White Sox Miguel Gonzalez 156 39.01% 2.56
Royals Danny Duffy -156 60.99% 1.64

Rockies Chad Bettis -105 51.21% 1.95
Rangers Lucas Harrell 105 48.79% 2.05

Astros Christopher Devenski 203 33.02% 3.03
Twins Tommy Milone -203 66.98% 1.49

 

[Underdogchance]

WEDNESDAY - 17/8/2016

Game Pitcher Proj.Moneyline Win% odds


Nationals Stephen Strasburg -113 57.14% 1.88
Rockies Jon Gray 113 42.86% 2.13

Pirates Ivan Nova 110 47.56% 2.10
Giants Matt Cain -110 52.43% 1.91

Dodgers Scott Kazmir -209 67.59% 1.48
Phillies Jake Thompson 209 32.41% 3.09

Marlins Andrew Cashner 200 33.31% 3.00
Reds Homer Bailey -200 66.69% 1.50

Brewers Jimmy Nelson 180 35.68% 2.80
Cubs Jon Lester -180 64.32% 1.55

Mets Jon Niese 149 40.18% 2.49
Diamondbacks Zack Godley -149 59.82% 1.67

Blue Jays J.A. Happ -133 57.15% 1.75
Yankees CC Sabathia 133 42.84% 2.33

Royals Yordano Ventura 177 36.05% 2.77
Tigers Anibal Sanchez -177 63.95% 1.56

Athletics Sean Manaea 215 31.75% 3.15
Rangers Yu Darvish -215 68.25% 1.47

Padres Christian Friedrich 310 24.40% 4.10
Rays Chris Archer -310 75.59% 1.32

Cardinals Carlos Martinez -112 52.72% 1.90
Astros Doug Fister 112 47.28% 2.12

Twins Kyle Gibson -116 53.74% 1.86
Braves Mike Foltynewicz 116 46.26% 2.16

Red Sox David Price -112 52.74% 1.90
Orioles Dylan Bundy 112 47.26% 2.12

Mariners Cody Martin #N/A #N/A #N/A
Angels Tyler Skaggs #N/A #N/A #N/A

White Sox Anthony Ranaudo 420 19.22% 5.20
Indians Carlos Carrasco -419 80.73% 1.24

 

[Underdogchance]

View attachment 41278

 

[Underdogchance]

FRIDAY - 19.8.2016

 

[Underdogchance]

SATURDAY 20.8.2016

 

[Underdogchance]

Sunday - 21.8.2016

 

[Underdogchance]

Tampa Bay Rays (Smyly) @ Boston Red Sox (Wright)
Pick: Tampa Bay (Rays) @2.57


Tampa Bay won yesterday in Boston, but I think they will have another chance today as well.
My predictive model still gives more chance to Boston (53.2%) and projected odds on Tampa Bay are @2.14 (+114). But with the odds of 2.57 we have a value play on Tampa.
Drew Smyly has some great numbers against Boston Red Sox. He beat them in April, when he struck 11 batters in Fenway Park. He is 2-1 against them and his team record is 4-3, when he was on the mound against Boston. In last 3 games versus Boston (2015, 2016) he struck out 29 batters in 20 innings, which is pretty amazing if we know, that Boston is one of the best hitting teams in MLB.
Wright on other side didn't pitch against Tampa yet, which is advantage for him, but he didn't look good in last game. He walked 3 hitters, struck out only 1 and allowed 5 runs, 2 home runs, 7 hits in 6 innings against Kansas.
Boston is better team, no doubt, but I think we will have some pitching advantage here and 2.57 is too high on Tampa. Tampa can beat Boston again. One interesting thing here. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in last 5 games during 3rd game of the series, Boston is just 2-9 in last 11 during 3rd game of the series. And guess what...this is 3rd game of the series.


My whole card: