Monday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Monday, September 15, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>951</TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Dodgers </TD><TD width=130>H Kuroda -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>952 </TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>R Ohlendor -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+150</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>953</TD><TD width=160>New York Mets </TD><TD width=130>P Martinez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>954 </TD><TD width=160>Washington Nationals </TD><TD width=130>J Lannan -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+150</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:35 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>955</TD><TD width=160>San Diego Padres </TD><TD width=130>W Leblanc -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>956 </TD><TD width=160>Colorado Rockies </TD><TD width=130>U Jimenez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>8:40 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>957</TD><TD width=160>San Francisco Giants </TD><TD width=130>B Hennessey -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>958 </TD><TD width=160>Arizona Diamondbacks </TD><TD width=130>D Davis -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>959</TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>K Slowey -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>960 </TD><TD width=160>Cleveland Indians </TD><TD width=130>S Lewis -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>961</TD><TD width=160>Chicago White Sox </TD><TD width=130>M Buehrle -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>962 </TD><TD width=160>New York Yankees </TD><TD width=130>A Aceves -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>963</TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>D Matsuzaka -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-230</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>964 </TD><TD width=160>Tampa Bay Rays </TD><TD width=130>S Kazmir -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+190</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>965</TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>D Willis -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>966 </TD><TD width=160>Texas Rangers </TD><TD width=130>B McCarthy -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>12</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>967</TD><TD width=160>Seattle Mariners </TD><TD width=130>C Silva -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>968 </TD><TD width=160>Kansas City Royals </TD><TD width=130>K Davies -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Minnesota at Cleveland
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>K Slowey
J Lewis
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. White Sox at NY Yankees
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>M Buehrle
A Aceves
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Tampa Bay
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Matsuzaka
S Kazmir
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Detroit at Texas
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Willis
B McCarthy
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at Kansas City
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>C Silva
K Davies
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>2:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. Cubs at Houston
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T. Lilly
B Moehler
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>H Kuroda
R Ohlendorf
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Washington
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>P Martinez
J Lannan
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Diego at Colorado
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>W Leblanc
U Jimenez
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:40 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at Arizona
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Hennessey
D Davis
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Ever since Jason Bay got his 1st "settling-in" game for Boston out of the way, the Red Sox have scored -

12, 5, 3, 8, 8, 3, 6, 5, 5, 19, 8, 10, 1, 4, 6, 7, 6, 8, 0, 6, 7, 11, 2, 8, 8, 2, 7, 14, 5, 8, 8, 7, 3, 4, 2, 7, 1, 7 & 4 run totals

_6 totals of 0-2 runs
_6 totals of 3-4 runs
27 totals of 5+ runs (69.2%)
 
Since July the 6th, the Chicago Cubs are...

- 35-7 SU in games which they've scored 3+ runs (26-15-1 to Over)

- 1-15 SU in games which they've scored 0-2 runs (14-2 to Under)



Chicago's last 15 games of offense -

2, 6, 3, 2, 3, 0, 7, 0, 2, 14, 3, 3, 4, 3 & 5 run totals.

5 totals of 0-2 runs
6 totals of 3-4 runs
4 totals of 5+ runs (26.6%)
 
initial thoughts w/o research and stuff

dodgers should be a play even if they suck on the road

im not saying play the padres but ubaldo shouldnt be favored by that much

buehrle should be a play, no way a new pitcher be favored against buehrle
A. aceves got lucky in some games but no way against the win needed sox

fading silva is money, mariners also rotating their kids

kazmir vs dice k should be a great match, under maybe?
 
i wish i had some stats about how a team does after a no hitter. zambrano was dealing but i also think houston is starting to miss carlos lee. there are only going to be a few thousand people in milwaukee and im sure it will be the smallest crowd the cubs have had this year. (not that it matters, just thought i would mention it)
-im really liking cubs 1st 5 and under 5 1st 5 innings. i like the cubs alot but i have to say i don't trust their bullpen for shit right now. wood and marmol have been getting into som serious shit every time they go out, they luckily have been pitching out those jams but i dont know if they can continue to do that. the other members of the bullpen are either below average or have been getting hit.
-moehler gives up plenty of hits, but he is a master of pitching out of jams. he's actually a pretty underrated guy imo, at least from what i've seen in his games vs. the cubs. this will be the fourth time they've seen moehler and they saw him a month ago in which he pitched 5 scoreless innings and he was on that night. i just think the cubs are riding high right now and will at least cash in a couple runs off moehler. moehler doesn't go deep into games but all i need is for him to stay respectable for 5 innings.
 
Jimbo,

Your logic seems pretty good on the Cubs and under 1st five. They are also 9-1 in last ten games in Milw and Houston is 3-7. My concern is the umpire, it is supposed to be Jim Joyce if they are using the same crew from yesterday. What do you think about him? What about the roof? Is it open? Where is the braintrust here today?

Just noticed that Lilly and Moehler met in Houston and it was 2-1 Cubs. (After 5, it was 1-0 Cubs. Lilly was -117 on the road and the total was 9.) Now it is -130 on neutral? That might be too high for as well as Moehler has pitched against the Cubs this year. The Under might be the best here with the right conditions!
 
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Sportsnut-

Are you looking at betting any series prices?

Was thinking about the White Sox and Boston, was curious about your thoughts on any series if you are doing them
 
i'll hopefully have time to research and post some plays soon. i wouldnt be surprised to see this cubs game go over the total now so my under 1st 5 was just a dope ass play. tanner, i had cubs -2.5 (+190) last night, under 9, chisox -1.5, phillies ML & RL. in the football game i fuckin triple dipped that shit. i had a teaser pitt -2/under 48. i had +7 browns in a parlay. 10-6 final couldnt have been a better final. i've made more money this past week than i did in the past 6 months. i just feel like a can find a winner in any game. i've learned not to bet strictly the game ML, sometimes the value lies in the 1st 5 innings, or the total, etc.
 
@tanner : how crazy is it that we joined in the same month and we have pretty much the same amount of posts since then!?!?!
also, i think the sixers are going to be big money makers this year again. i don't know if books have caught on to their talent but i the public usually doesn't bet the sixers for some reason. (maybe they still think they aren't legit?) the whole team is pretty much underrated except for igoudala.
 
haha that is ironic although alot of my posts have been in the service forum posting all the service plays and newsletters i can find, while yours are more productive which in turn are better.

I try and post what I like when I can but their are alot better posters out there and I enjoy reading what they have to say


I love the sixers again this year they continue to surprise everyone how good they play and now with brand on the team they are going to be even more amazing. I think we are not quite at the first tier(bos,clev,detl) but we are in the 2nd tier and climbing
 
it's unprecedented...I felt he got more heat than he deserved..

But its obvious these kids tighten up in September...that happens with young kids...so maybe it's something he's doing...hard to tell from afar.
 
Using that rationale of kids tightening up in pennant races....any thought on the BoSox vs Rays series? Great pitching matchups: Dice-Kaz, Becks-Sonna, Wake-Garza. Who wins this series?
 
THe way they responded those last two in Boston, it's hard to use that rationale..

They've been too good at home to fade IMO...I'd be comfortable w/ a series bet on TB.
 
Jump did you end up winning that bet with the guy you worked with about the spread in the SC/OSU game. I remember we talked about this like 6 months ago.
 
Like KC tonight for several reasons...

  • Carlos Silva last 6 starts has given up 6,9,4,4,6,4 averaging 4 1/3 inning
  • Seattle is 9-17 in Silva starts
  • KC is 8-10 in Davies starts
  • Seattle has lost 4 in a row
  • KC has won 3 in a row...bats have been hot.
What does everyone think? Kind of like the over as well.
 
very hard to see ohlendorf pull this off..but then again, the dodgers are 4.5 games up. AZ playing a weak away team does bode well for a bit of motivation to the W though.... kuroda is just so mediocre though. Guy pitches low in the zone, which leaves him very prone to chip shot base hits.
 
sportsnut, when you come on, id like to hear your thoughts on kazmir. The home team dominance in this matchup will continue imo..

Rays coming off 2 consecutive losses and only used price (5.1ip) and hammel(.2ip) last night from the pen. It definitely looks like a look ahead scenario where the rays are charging up for this series.. or is it a slump? Much more inclined to believe that they are pumped.. <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Boston</st1:place></st1:City> pen is also fresh as they only used papelbon to finish off the jays..

<st1:City w:st="on">Boston</st1:City> and both <st1:City w:st="on">tampa</st1:City> have seen daisuke/kazmir just 6 days ago... in that matchup kaz held <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">boston</st1:place></st1:City> to 2er with 3 walks.. His control does not seem to be the best as he has walked 8 men in the last 12 ip. It's hard to deny his home split advantage that kaz has, but seeing a pitcher so often has its advantages.

I am beginning to believe that Matsuzaka's bbs are just part of his game. He knows when to walk people and goes unscathed 75% of the time. Gotta give it to him, you cant do that all season long based on luck. I do believe though that today is a different story... Matsuzaka has a 1.6 whip against lhp and he may get away with walking the strong lefties that tamps throws his way, but watch the pitch count son, your ass is out with 5ip like last time. I am convinced that this guys CANNOT pitch to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">tampa</st1:place></st1:City> without walking and get the W. LHBs belong to kaz this year.. It then becomes a game of bullpens where <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">tampa</st1:City></st1:place> clearly has the edge with balfour and friends rolling them up.
 
lad @ pit : -pitt is 0-8 this year as a home underdog of +150 to +175.
-LAD is 22-6 last 28 meetings in pittsburgh!!
-i guess i'm a little partial but i like kuroda alot, more than dodger fans apparently.. he can straight up dominate. (I think this guy is capable of a no hitter at any time.)
-you can't look past his 2-8 record on the road however. batting avg. against is .280 on the road and .231 at home. he also has 7 unearned runs on the road in just 83 innings which is a ton. he does go for contact mainly so maybe his defense can't handle all that responsibility on the road?
-also, his run support sucks. in 28 starts, 15 of them have been 3 runs or less. 8 times he has gotten 3 runs, must be his lucky number?
-pitt is coming off a rare sweep of st lou and i will tell you that i cashed in on pitt ML twice.
-pitt bullpen @ home actually has a better ERA than the dodgers road bullpen ERA. i bet on pitt so i've been watching their games and i will tell you that pitt bullpen was excellent in that st lou series. but like i've said before, that manager better not put in denny bautista when i bet on pitt.
-pitt had double digit hits in each game and scored 7,7, 10 runs.
-i don't know much about ohlendorf but if you look at LAD road record, kuroda's road record, no ethier, i would have to say no way could i bet on LAD.
-i don't think either pitcher will be excellent tonight but i could not bet an over with these two offenses...
-I'm not sure if I will play it but I like Pitt +1.5 alot. it is even money and pitt is playing better than this line suggests.
 
LAD line is inflated a good 15-20 cents... I know it's ohlendorf, but it is the dodgers on the road with a formidable division lead. They got some veterans going, but garciaparra will be out b y the 7th with hu or some garbage replacing him..
 
Jimbo,

You are really hot as the wind was blowing out to right field 10-16mph and the Cubs hit three home runs with the four run inning coming in the 6th! I think it is safe to say that Houston is done for the year along with St. Louis, don't you?

When is the last time Kyle Davies won at-130+ favorite? With two gas can pitchers, nobody should be favored that much! The over looks good here, too! and he was +124

Bos/Matsuki was favored -170 over TB/Kazmir last outing in a 4-5 loss. They also met on 7/02 and the score was 6-7. Now he is an underdog again and in this third matchup, Boston seems like a play at the price. Before I take off the rubber bands, I would like to hear yours or SN's comment's on these two games!:shake:
 
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Tough to back Dice K here IMO. There was not much buzz around Boston last week when TB was in town. TB will finially have a big crowd abeit springled in someBoston fans. I see this as a real big series for both teams but Tb at home has been good all year. My gut tells me TB wins tonite
 
nym@was : alot of things to consider here...public is HAMMERING the mets and over. line opens at -180 and is now at -150?? how could the total open 8.5?? both pitchers are inconsistent as hell, have not been pitching well, lannan SUCKS at home, pedro sucks on the road. washington is an ugly 8-20 when lannan starts, but one stat that is REALLY impressive about him is that his batting avg. against when RISP is a measly .222 which is one the lowest i've seen. lannan is coming off a start against the mets and he got rocked 3IP 5 ER. i always find it pretty hard to decipher how a guy will do when he faces the same team twice. pedro has nice numbers against washington, but he hasn't seen them since 2006 so that doesnt mean shit. he is 4-1 in road starts when he gets a decision, but his 6.06 ERA and the fact his team is 4-6 when he starts tells me that the games he wins he gets bailed out. the two games the mets and washington played a couple weeks ago were crazy and washington was not without their chances.
-i'm not touching this game, but w/ all things considered i would prolly give the SP edge to washington and i wouldn't be surprised to see them winning after 5 innings. since the books set the total at a measly 8.5 they might be tipping lannan to pitch a gem and win a low scoring affair in which case they would crush the betting public on the ML and total.....
-obvious bet are NYM and over but i refuse to walk into a trap like that.
 
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washington bullpen sucks so i wouldn't touch washington ML, but once again i would think about the +1.5 for the home team.
 
Scott Lewis allowed just three hits over eight shutout innings to win his major league debut on Wednesday night. The 24-year-old southpaw, who has spent the last three years battling injuries, was 8-4 with a 2.40 ERA between Double- and Triple-A this season. Wednesday's solid performance was against the Orioles, who have scored the sixth-most runs in baseball this season. Lewis struck out three and didn't allow a walk on the night, but he's still a risky start against Minnesota next time out.
 
min @ cle : i didnt see that game w/ scott lewis so i don't know how sick this guy is. i always think you cannot overract to just one start tho. he is still a new guy and i think minny will bring him back to reality tonight. slowey is pretty damn good, but since he doesn't give up walks he can get burnt by the occasional HR and cleveland has 4 off him in just 17 innings. cleveland pitching sucks horribly and they have given up double digit hits in 5 str8 games. i would give the SP edge to minny, hitting to minny, bullpens is prolly a push because both are str8 fucking shit bags (minny bullpen is good at home, shitty as hell on the road, home era is like a low 2.00 and road bullpen era is 5.61) i think this line looks juicy as hell for a team that is desperate for wins vs. a team who have lost 3 str8 at home and don't have shit to play for..... lean on the over 9 too..... pretty small number for an AL game and who knows what will happen when the bullpens come in.
 
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cws @ nyy : i will not be betting this game because i would rather just watch it and root for my team... but if i had to bet it i would have to say NYY ML & under 9.5, i just have a feeling we are gonna be flat after last night's game, travel, a guy who we haven't seen, and offense is depleted. i hate to say it but the sox can be really bad and score only 1-2 runs w/ only a few hits. yanks have some good history against buehrle and i expect them to get a few off mark. it hurts me to say too because i think mark is the shit, a straight professional....
 
Here is what I wrote last week before Lannan's last start at Shea:

John Lannan has been a road warrior for the Nats and one of the best road pitchers in the NL. In 15 road starts this year, he has tossed 96.3 innings and has a 2.71 ERA and .238 average allowed. What I find more interesting, is how solid he is over the first 5 innings on the road. If you ignore his last road start, a day game at Wrigley where the wind was blowing out and Lannan actually got the win, here are the runs Lannan has allowed in the first 5 innings in his 14 other road starts: 0,0,0,1,1,0,2,2,0,2,1,0,0,2. Those are not earned run totals, but actual run totals he has allowed. I think it's quite amazing. I think that is a strong reason to play Lannan at +major juice today in the first 5 innings. Here are the total runs scored by both teams in all 15 of Lannan's road starts:

4,0,2,1,4,3,1,2,3,1,4,3,1,3,2

All 15 of Lannan's road games have gone UNDER 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings

Then BOOM, the games lands on 15 runs after 5 innings last week!

Lannan is 10-4-2 now in the first 5 inning line this season.
 
bos @ tb: another case of teams going against a pitcher they just saw. TB won in the recent meeting, winning in the ninth however 5-4.
-dice is 7-0 on the road, 9-2 team record when he starts. 2.67 ERA 64 innings only 43 HITS!
-kaz is 7-1 at home, 11-1 team record when he starts. 2.10 ERA 69 innings only 44 hits.
- not many hits, but these guys walk a lot of guys.
-i like boston offense against lefties a lot more than TB offense.
-TB first game back off a long road trip. boston is soo fired up for this especially after the two demoralizing home losses just a couple days ago. boston was actually a road favorite at the open but the books adjusted when they found out public liked TB.
-the huge public unders always seem to find a way to go over but i feel this one is going to come through.
i'm thinking dice outduels kaz tonight and wins a big one...
Boston ML and under 8.
 
actually, maybe it would be better to take under 4 1st 5 innings. i hate messin w/ bullpens. TB and boston hit each others bullpen pretty well...
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=NHLsubheadingStats style="COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #746022" noWrap colSpan=18>Ross Ohlendorf's 2008 Profile</TD></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 10px; PADDING-LEFT: 10px; FONT-SIZE: 10px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 10px; PADDING-TOP: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" colSpan=20>A reputed sinkerballer without the big groundball ratios to back it up, Ohlendorf appeared overrated when the Yankees picked him up from Arizona in the Randy Johnson deal. Ohlendorf does get downwards movement on his 89-92 mph fastball, but it’s not enough to prevent left-handed hitters from elevating the ball for extra-base hits. Neither his changeup nor his slider is a particularly strong pitch. When he wasn’t limited by a back injury, he had a 1.66 WHIP in nine starts and 12 relief appearances at Triple-A last season. The Yankees tried him as a reliever in September with better results. The extra velocity he gains by going all out for an inning or two at a time should help him contain left-handed hitters. He’ll get a chance to win a bullpen spot this spring. If he earns one, he’ll probably be used frequently with the Yankees behind, giving him a chance to pick up several victories. Updated Sep. 2: Pirates recalled RHP Ross Ohlendorf from Triple-A Indianapolis. Ohlendorf is expected to start Wednesday as the Pirates go to six starters for now. He was 4-3 with a 3.47 ERA in seven starts for Indy after coming over in the Xavier Nady trade. Since he'll be facing the Reds in his first start up, NL-only leaguers in desperate need of wins could try him.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Leaning Cle and possibly an Over - Just see Minny as a team who on the road hits well vs bad LHP and tends to struggle vs good ones . Slowley has been medcore allowing 5 runs in 6 inn in both starts vs CLE and his ERA on normal rest is 4.31 compared to 2.66 on extra ...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>4.31</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>77.1</TD><TD align=right>80</TD><TD align=right>37</TD><TD align=right>37</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>59</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.266</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2.60</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>65.2</TD><TD align=right>56</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>19</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>50</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.230</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

His BAA is 286 away compared to .211 at home . His day splits are weak but his night stats very solid..looking at Slowleys season he tends to be very good vs a few teams which makes his stats look better then they are ...

Twins away vs LHSP wins vs Olson , GSmith , Meyer, Fiererbend , JSanders
Losses vs Purcey , Braden , Eveland adn Rowand Smith...

Slowley vs KC and OK plus IL play is 8-1 in 10 starts but 4-8 in the other 14 starts ...inculding 2-5 away vs teams not mentioned above and both wins vs DET ...1 he was shelled in ...Which he was really only solid in two his 1st vs Det and later on vs LAA...

8-1 10 starts 69.1 inn 54h 13r 12 er 5hrs 5bbs 61Ks

4-8 14 starts 77 inn 86h 47r all er 14hrs 16bbs 50Ks......

Other leans ..

Yanks ML - WSox is rough imo and yanks have a nice edge there . Buerhle has 14 road starts and 7 good ones and 7 real bad ones where he allowed at least 5 runs...Scary part is YANKS SUCK in games 1s but DET long ass delay waited a few hours like 3 befoe they started there DH then fly to NYY ...With Arod in the lineup Yanks tough at home vs LHP last 2 years ...

Nats +1.5 do look attractive but Lannan has struggled vs the Mets ...thinking over here possibly.....untrutsworthy pen as well

Looking at Dice K as well. We know he is better on extra rest which he gets here and same matchup when Kaz beat RS in Boston ...maybe 1st 5 inn under but lean game over 8 with the pens.....

KC ML : Davies has been decent at home and well SEA couldnt beat a watered down LAA lineup ....Silva always a question amrk but would bt suprised by an under here and leaning that way ...dont trust KC bats vs RHSP not named Bullington ....

Zona ML : Fading Hennessey pitching vs the same lineup twice basically . DBacks off two tough losses as well....thinking over .....

Over 9 Pitt and LAD : Off a 1-0 game . Ohlendorf has been so-so and cant show consistency while Kuroda has been medicore past few turns and guy seems to be medicore or awesome little imbewteen . Pitt bats showed some life as well this weekend...

Might be crazy and interested in UNDER 12 @ TExas or 1st 5 inning under ....

BOL all:cheers:
 
Small play on Minn over. Reasonable ump and that 41-19 over stat after a loss for Minn plus Minn vs a leftie and Cleveland has hit Slowey
 
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