Monday MLB Discussion/Thoughts

reNew Orleans

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
<table class="matchupBox" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="bannerTxt">MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL - May 05 </td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="bannerTxt">NATIONAL LEAGUE </td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>4:10 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">951</td><td class="teamsBox">CHI CUBS, Pitcher: R DEMPSTER-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732988_5_0_1.5_-210_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-210 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732988_5_2_-9_-120_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9-120 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732988_5_4_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">952</td><td class="teamsBox">CIN REDS, Pitcher: J CUETO -R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732988_5_1_-1.5_180_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+180 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732988_5_3_9_100_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9EV </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732988_5_5_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>5:35 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">953</td><td class="teamsBox">STL CARDINALS, Pitcher: J PINEIRO-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732989_5_0_1.5_-205_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-205 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732989_5_2_-10_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o10-105 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732989_5_4_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">954</td><td class="teamsBox">COL ROCKIES, Pitcher: U JIMENEZ-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732989_5_1_-1.5_175_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+175 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732989_5_3_10_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u10-115 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732989_5_5_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>6:40 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">955</td><td class="teamsBox">PHI PHILLIES, Pitcher: J MOYER-L</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732990_5_0_1.5_-165_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-165 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732990_5_2_-9.5_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9½-115 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732990_5_4_0_125_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+125</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">956</td><td class="teamsBox">ARI D-BACKS, Pitcher: M SCHERZER -R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732990_5_1_-1.5_145_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+145 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732990_5_3_9.5_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9½-105 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732990_5_5_0_-145_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-145</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>7:10 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">957</td><td class="teamsBox">NY METS, Pitcher: N FIGUEROA -R</td><td class="oddsBox"> </td><td class="oddsBox"> </td><td class="oddsBox"> </td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">958</td><td class="teamsBox">LA DODGERS, Pitcher: C BILLINGSLEY-R</td><td class="oddsBox"> </td><td class="oddsBox"> </td><td class="oddsBox"> </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="bannerTxt">AMERICAN LEAGUE </td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>4:05 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">959</td><td class="teamsBox">BOS RED SOX, Pitcher: D MATSUZAKA-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732992_5_0_1.5_-215_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-215 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732992_5_2_-9_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9-115 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732992_5_4_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">960</td><td class="teamsBox">DET TIGERS, Pitcher: J BONDERMAN-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732992_5_1_-1.5_185_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+185 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732992_5_3_9_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9-105 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732992_5_5_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>4:05 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">961</td><td class="teamsBox">CHI W SOX, Pitcher: J VAZQUEZ-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732993_5_0_1.5_-215_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-215 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732993_5_2_-8_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o8-105 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732993_5_4_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">962</td><td class="teamsBox">TOR B-JAYS, Pitcher: D MCGOWAN-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732993_5_1_-1.5_185_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+185 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732993_5_3_8_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u8-115 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732993_5_5_0_-110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-110</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>5:10 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">963</td><td class="teamsBox">LA ANGELS, Pitcher: E SANTANA-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732994_5_0_-1.5_105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+105 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732994_5_2_-9.5_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9½-105 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732994_5_4_0_-155_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-155</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">964</td><td class="teamsBox">KC ROYALS, Pitcher: B TOMKO-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732994_5_1_1.5_-125_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-125 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732994_5_3_9.5_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9½-115 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732994_5_5_0_135_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+135</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="evenRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>7:05 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">965</td><td class="teamsBox">BAL ORIOLES, Pitcher: G OLSON-L</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732995_5_0_1.5_-170_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-170 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732995_5_2_-9_100_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9EV </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732995_5_4_0_120_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+120</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">966</td><td class="teamsBox">OAK ATHLETICS, Pitcher: D EVELAND-L</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732995_5_1_-1.5_150_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+150 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732995_5_3_9_-120_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9-120 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732995_5_5_0_-140_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-140</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr><tr class="oddRow"><td class="timeBox"><small>7:10 PM</small></td><td class="linesBox"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="rotationBox">967</td><td class="teamsBox">TEX RANGERS, Pitcher: K MILLWOOD-R</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732996_5_0_1.5_-195_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+1½-195 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732996_5_2_-9_-105_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">o9-105 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732996_5_4_0_110_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">+110</td></tr><tr><td class="rotationBox">968</td><td class="teamsBox">SEA MARINERS, Pitcher: J WASHBURN-L</td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732996_5_1_-1.5_165_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-1½+165 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732996_5_3_9_-115_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">u9-115 </td><td class="oddsBox"><input name="game" value="732996_5_5_0_-130_MLB" class="chkbox" type="checkbox">-130</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>


smaller card for today, i think I'll be on ARZ though... vs a LHP @ home and Mad Max on the hill. not a terrible price either
 
Renew , you got the goods on Scherzer ?

I mean i see his 4.1 innings , 0 hit , o run , o bb, 7 so performance vs houston but i dont know much about this guy. help.
 
Im sure someone around here knows more about him or any big 12 baseball fans have watched him pitch. former #1 pick in 06 for the D-backs, #11 and was their top prospect.

Minor League Stats this year before being called up.
.65 WHIP, 1.17 ERA, 38/3 K/BB in 23 innings.

Found this online:Regardless of his role the rest of the year, Scherzer is a good bet to keep dominating opposing hitters. With his funky, deceptive delivery, that 96 mph fastball stays hidden and explodes on hitters at the last instant. He also brings a hard, plus-slider that is equally difficult to pick up and dives down and out of the strike zone.
But, Scherzer’s mechanics are likely too dirty to stay in the rotation for a long period of time. He jerks his head at the release point and puts maximum effort into every pitch. The heavier his workload is, the more risk his violent delivery poses to his arm.

Throws from a 3/4 arm slot too, but yea find video on him on youtube and he definitely puts everything into each pitch.

I believe he can hit 98-99 also


Drafted 11th overall by the D-backs in 2006 out of the University of Missouri, Scherzer held out for 11 months on the advice of super-agent Scott Boras. Scherzer finally signed with Arizona on the eve of the 2007 draft and was assigned to the Diamondbacks' Class-A Advanced affiliate in Visalia. There he managed a 0.53 ERA, 0.41 WHIP, and a 30-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 17 innings. Promoted to Double-A Mobile, Scherzer finished out the 2007 season with a 4-4 record, a 3.91 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 73 2/3 innings at that level. He also walked 40, a stark contrast to the pinpoint control he has shown at his other stops. *** I read his fastball dropped off during this time so maybe durability issues = location issues***

When Scherzer is in command of his pitches, he brings to bear a three-pitch arsenal that features a sinking fastball coming in at 93-94 mph and topping out at 97. He also has an excellent slider and a good changeup, though his control of these pitches is only a recent development and could potentially desert him at any time. Like most young power pitchers, Scherzer is likely to be both dominant and erratic at times upon his promotion to the majors.

Positives

Scherzer's best assets right now are his fastball and his mentality. Asked to improve his secondary pitches out of training camp this spring, Scherzer has shown an intelligent determination to do just that. Called a "competitor" who "was aware of the things he needed to do to be successful in the big leagues" by Diamondbacks GM Byrnes, Scherzer's rapid progression through the ranks of the minor leagues and his ability to make adjustments successfully portend good things for his major league career.

Negatives

The biggest problem facing Scherzer at this point could be a lack of starting opportunities. As long as Diamondbacks starters Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson and Owings stay healthy (a questionable possibility considering Johnson's recent history), then Scherzer's path to the rotation is effectively blocked. The fifth spot in the rotation is his for now, but if he struggles, Gonzalez is always waiting in the wings. Left-handed pitcher Doug Davis is targeting May 9 for a return from surgery related to thyroid cancer. The No. 5 spot in the rotation was his before his placement on the disabled list. Ultimately, there is no guarantee that Scherzer will be in the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. However, he certainly offers the most upside of the three candidates.
 
vegaskyle said:
Renew , you got the goods on Scherzer ?

I mean i see his 4.1 innings , 0 hit , o run , o bb, 7 so performance vs houston but i dont know much about this guy. help.
Click to expand...

Didnt see the game with him ever but the reports are pretty clear in thinking this kid is a stud. I would say think Joba as a starter type material and how he waltzed into the majors and was lights out . Clearly tougher to do that time after time as a SP but thats the correalation I would from the hype...

I mean in your ML debut if you throw 4.1 Inn NO-HIT possibly perfect innings and K 7 your in rare territory...(didnt look closely at the boxscore)...

Just what I see from below he graduated college and wasnt able to play any pro ball from leaving college in June 06 ( the draft) till the even of the 07 draft ( so basically a year) . Then all he did was waltz in and put up quality numbers @ AA with basically a year off( after dominanting the college kids in high A ball) . Any drop in velocity I would put more on the inactivity period . Clearly he kept his arm in shape but not the same when you are working for a pro organization IMO.....no matter what Boras provides you....

Moyer definetly in a bad spot tmrw...soft tosser in that park...yikes vs such a good lineup vs LHP...??:shake:
 
they showed replays of his performance on baseball tonight... his stuff looks pretty nasty is all I can say.
 
First one that stands out is Detriot. We have the teams coming off opposite ends of the spectrum as Boston swept the Rays and travel while Tigers after sweeping @NYY(think 1st time in 40 or so years) were swept @ Minny( won 8 of 9 I think @ Metrodome last year) in painful fashion to both my bankroll and them by blowing a 6-0 1st inning lead. They will happy to be home but also with a veteran team they will be focused to get a WIN here to put the Sunday game behind them rather quickly then have it linger over them. Thats whats great about baseball you can outthere the next day and forgot about what just happened yesterday.......

Anyway the key I see is the pitching matchup. Dice K since coming over has weaker numbers when pitching on 5 days rest which he will be here. He started to struggle some this season when he made consecutive starts on 5 days rest but with a 13 day absence he was excellent his last time out vs slumping Toronto.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6.10</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>10.1</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.263</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0.44</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>20.1</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.119</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>5.29</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>81.2</TD><TD align=right>85</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>74</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.268</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3.96</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>116.0</TD><TD align=right>100</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>52</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>117</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>.230</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Hard to dismiss it and I am not implying he cant pitch well on 5 days rest its rather that if you expect him to struggle it seems it would be when he takes the ball every 5th day...

DiceK: 5 days & 15 starts

92 Inn 95 H 55R/ER 11HRs 35 BB 80K 5.38 ERA 1.41 WHIP

vs more then 5 days & 21 starts

136.1 108 H 52 R/ER 15Hrs 58BB 137K 3.43ERA 1.22 WHIP

So far DET has seen DiceK and has struggled in both games vs him @ Fenway which once was this year. At a time when DET bats were really struggling and Granderson had not returned yet. Last year @ Fenway 5 Inn 10H 6 runs 3 Hrs...also DiceK at night has struggled some...

Red Sox are 3-8 in Matsuzakas last 11 starts with 4 days of rest and won both this year in that situation...

His opposition Jeremy Bonderman MAY have turned the corner when he last pitched @ Yankee Stadium on Wed. He struggled early vs what was a struggling Yankee lineup but bounced back to go 7 2/3 inn allowing 5 hits and 2 runs and think he retired 12 straight at one point but double check that...Since the start of 2005 Bonderman who also already faced Boston and won think he opposed Lester which was great for DET to see a LHP at that point has a nice run going. He has won 4 straight at home vs them and two at Fenway making him(well DET) 6-0 the past 6 starts vs Boston. In those starts he allowed 2 runs each of the past 4 meetings and 16 across 6 starts of which he was responsible for 15 of the runs. However he was clearly helped by some solid relief( he went 40.2 meaning the pens went 13.1 allowing just 1 run) help which DET is now not getting though the pens ERA is 2.96 at home. They decided to trade Grilli was pitching well and then Bautista got hurt couple days later...

Bonderman year to year is widely inconsistent especially in regards to situations. One thing that has seemed to hold up is he is better on the road but also for the most part seems much better at night...so stay away from him during the day at home more then anything I think...and Det is 11-7 at night so far compared to 3-11 in the day..RSox scoring just 3.9 runs away have been swept twice already in Toronto and TB. Granted Boston is 0-6 on the fake surface , 1-1 in Japan and 5-1 in 3 2 game sets vs NYY , Cle and Oak teams who have been wildly inconsistent.

Last few tidbits David Ortiz who is swinging much better past few was a late scratch today with a knee injury so his status is unknown. Leyland after the loss today commented...
While Granderson is likely to play Monday, Leyland plans to shake up his lineup, but wouldn’t specify how after Sunday’s loss.
“There will be changes (Monday),” said Leyland, whose team was outscored 22-8 against the Twins.

Varitek 3 / 14 3bbs 6ks
Youk 0 / 12 2bbs 5 Ks
Pedroia 2/6 1bb
Lugo 4 /13 6Ks(2 Rbi)
Lowell 0/9 2Ks
Ortiz 4/24 5BB 5K (1Hr 4 RBI)
Manny 6/19 3bb 3k (1hr 2 rbi)
Ellsbury 2bbs (1rbi)
Crisp 10/42 4bb 4k (1hr 4rbi)
Drew 2/8 2bb 4K

Clearly only two of the three from the Drew-Crisp-Ellsbury group can play and if Ortiz does sit or Youk is rested Casey is 4 /4 1bb vs him. Which Casey was 2 for 2 with a bb this year @ Fenway...

excluding Ellsbury they are 31 for 147 against Bonderman. 20BB 35 Ks w/ 3Hrs only 12 rbi....211avg .305 OBP.

While DiceK has allowed 17 for 51 vs Det excluding the player who is in LF ( Pudge , Cabrera , Polanco, Renteria , Guillen , Granderson , Maggs and Sheff)3bb 10Ks but 3hrs 5 rbi...Thames and Jones who could be in left both 1/3 but Thames has a solo HR and Inge if was catching or something is 1-7...

SO really liking this spot for DET on Monday...its a PK right now....I could see it going either way with so called public money backing BOS and DiceK or so called PRO / Sharp money seeing DET as cheap and running it to -120 or so....really I dont care which way it goes....

:cheers::shake:


 
good to hear nut, i also really like detroit tomorrow.

lookin at toronto and texas as well, seattle has really been lacking run support and cant even snag a win with bedard or king relix on the mound.

can 2 pitch washburn do any better? a fastball that tops out at 83 mph and a changeup that runs all over the place. washburn has no control at all.
unfortunatley milwood has struggled against seattle in the past, althoguh he had a decent outing in the season opener in seattle.
so will look at the over as well, but the way seattle has been swinging the bats i dont think ill go that route.
 
Cubs -105 - this play looks good. Cueto seems to have hit a wall and was lit up in his last start. Don't see how he's going to be able to hold down the Cubs lineup after Sunday nights missed chances.

Dempster has pitched 2 wins and 2 overs in a row against Cincy (both @ Wrigley) and he's pitched pretty damn well this season with the 3.43 era. I just expect the Cubs to get this game, that and Cueto's recent struggles.
 
E. Santana laying a fifty-five cents on the road?

Over in Detroit? Better yet, Detroit gets swept by Minnesota and returns home to try and end their losing-streak. Boston extracted their revenge from Tampa, and now hit the road -- letdown. Daisuke has not been impressive lately. Early line at a coin toss. I might be a Detroit backer tomorrow.
 
kansas city is a definite play.

tempted to take white sox and over , especially with kulpa calling balls and strikes and mcgowans inconsistent control

dempster doesnt fair well vs the reds bats .

Those are the only three games so far that have my interest.
 
Probably looking more at Chicago tmrw to avoid the 4 game sweep in Toronto..Vazquez pitching real well so far and his last few starts @ Rogers Centre have been fantastic sub 2 ERA there in 4 career starts.

Javy @ Rogers 4 starts
28.1 Inn 18 H 5runs all earned 6bb 29Ks 4Hrs allowed
1.59 WHIP 0.85 WHIP 1.91 BAA

more relative last 2 starts @ Rogers in 06 and 07 for Chicago
16Inn 8h 1 run 4bb 18K....

Only concern I have with javy here is it will be a week since his last start on Mondaynot sure why that is. This year he went on 6 days rest and probably had one of his better starts of the season 7 inn 0 runs but 7 days a different situation and in yers past he doesnt seem to like that extra day though it shifts from year to year...

Indivually the Jays lineup has struggled vs him and McGowan seems to be a hard luck guy right now as he has seen Tor lose 5 of his 6 starts this year despite pitching well...huge motivation to avoid a 4 game sweep and winless 6 game trip for Chicago as well IMO...

Now the lineup in Tor hasnt changed much they shed Frank Thomas and Troy Glaus. Coming in are Rolen who probably isnt the same player he was when he & Javy squared off in his NL days and Shannon Stewart.Also I think people will feel Chi is playing poorly and Tor well when really there is minor difference in there play . Both teams pitching well and not doing much offensively the results that have occurred probaly are due to the fact Chi is playing away in these games and Tor home..

Sox have lost 5 straight allowing 4 and 5 runs and 3 or less in the others plus the 3-3 tie game on monday. Going back there past 8 games they have allowed 5 ,1 ,3, 3, 4,2,5,4 and are 1-6-1 in that stretch...Jays have won 4 straight now and are only 5-8 last 13 games...(streaky)...last 8 they have allowed 2 , 2, 1, 2, 0,0,2,3 and still are just 5-3...hell you cant lose if you shut them out so 3-3 last 6 games they allowed a run???

Javy vs Jays lineup...
Barajas 2 -15 1bb 3k OR
Zaun 5-17 4bb 1K {1hr 3rbi} (started todaythough)
Overbay 4-14 2bb 3k {2rbi}
Hill 0-8 1bb {rbi}
Eck 1-11 1bb 2k {rbi}
Rolen 14-54 0bb 8k {3hr 13 rbi}
Stewart 7 -20 3bb 2k {2hr 3 rbi}
Wells 4 -29 6k {1hr 1rbi}
Rios 8 -25 2bb 3k {3rbi}
Stairs 1-21 3bb 7K {rbi}

Lind could work his way in there but he hasnt hit much yet. McDonald 3-7 1bb 3ks lifetime could...u look at Tor lineup and see alot of RHB to which they are only 164 so far against Javy in 2008..with vets Stewart and Rolen having some success vs javy one must weigh the fact they have slowly detrioated as hitters past few years when many of those abs may have occurred...

Assume Zaun starts :
46 - 214 .215 16bb 32 Ks .270OBP 7Hrs 28 Rbi

Jays 8 straight unders and 10 of 11..Wsox 7 straight unders plus the 3-3 tie game in xtras on monday that was suspended....

With Toronto McGowan has been real sharp 3 times and so-so the other 3 times..

sharp vs Det , @ NYY and @ Boston
20.1 inn 15h 5 runs 1hr 6 bb 10k 2.21 ERA 1.03 WHIP

so-so starts @ Balt (6inn) , vs Oak (5inn) , @ TB (4inn)
15 Inn 21 H 10r 9 er 1hr 11bb 18K 5.40 ERA 2.13 WHIP

Last year at home 7 inn 6h 3r 3bb 5k vs WSox at home in a win...

Big plus for CHI though is McGowan is struggling more with RHB which is basically all Chi has outside of Swisher switchhitting and Thome...


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>GS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>W</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>L</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SV</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SHO</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>IP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ER</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>ERA</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>WHIP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BAA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Left</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>20.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>22</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.30</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.227</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Right</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>-</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.76</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.333</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Kinda backs up his inconsistency because he was about 198 vs RH last year so its out of the ordinary for him. Also really tough last year in Tor (3.27 ERA 215BAA) but 4.91 ERA at night for him. Shows in his splits somewhatthis year but just 1 day start but 3 of 5 at night have been his so-so starts.....Wsox though only 9-39 vs McGowan Swisher terrible 1-10 with 7Ks but Konerko 2-4 with 3 bbs as well..

on 5 days rest..

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>4.76</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>17.0</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.328</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2.19</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>12.1</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>12</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.234</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3.06</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>15</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>100.0</TD><TD align=right>76</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>34</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>85</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>.208</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>5.29</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>64.2</TD><TD align=right>64</TD><TD align=right>39</TD><TD align=right>38</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>55</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>.256</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last year very important to him but this year out of the gate not so much...@ balt , vs Det and @ TB on 5 days this year and the what would stick out is his good track record in day starts last year and the DET start happened to be a Monday afternoon game...so his 2 starts at night on 5 days not very sharp @ Balt and @ TB...also the Boston game possibly his best start followed his worst @ TB...

Well I played the over 8 today but I suspect looking athow this is lining up the over might come here...you have McGowan at night where his splits arent that good and on 5 days rest where he hasnt been sharp when at night vs Javy who has been excellent but in unchartered territory pitching ion 7 days rest and in the past his ERA has risen on extended rest...if this sees 7.5 think I have to ride the over again..

So looking @ Wsox at even money but suspect the over will have to hit as well......Sox also had won all 6 game 3's before falling 4-3 today..Wsox are 5-11 at night but jays just 7-16


Seattle hosting Texas..

Probably an edge for Texas being out West already while after a rough series in NY following the Cle series had to fly back home...they are 15-7 vs Texas though at home , neither SP likes to win vs the opponent ...dont see Millwood throwing as well lately as he did to start , Washburn is struggling but Texas now just 1-5 vs LHP as they have a heavy biased LHB lineup...Millwood 34 hits and 8 walks last 4 starts spanning 23 _ innings..has only had 2 real solid starts vs Sea lately and Wash much better in his 2 home starts so far then away but still rather medicore...back in 05 and 06 he shutdown Texas in the 4 starts he faced them but in 2007 just decent in 3 of 4 starts and poor the other....however Texas also was better vs LHP in 2007 then its is now...Sosa , Teixiera , Byrd 3 key hitters out or gone....

Still looking at that game though.....:cheers::shake:











 
Good stuff Train , VK , BC....

Clearly BC the Tigers seem to be in a great spot and nice price as well...

VK we seem to agree has to be WSOX to the over tight zone sounds good..my worry is javy on 7 days but WSOX are desperate here and mcGowan has struggled vs RHP...7.5 total would be a big over play for me...Javy just to good in the past 2 yeasr @ Rogers to pass up...he may not duplicate those numbers or even come close but I just want a win.....also after watching LAA past few days would agree that Ervin Santana is a bit over priced...KC has the momentum of winning 2 @ Cleveland as well..also Ervin somewhat fortunate to win his road games...two by 1 run and really should have lost @ Det while he allowed 3 to Texas in the 1st and the Rangers just shit the bed after that it was during there losing streak as well.....also KC attractive since they will bat 4 or 5 good LHB and Santana has struggled in the past vs LHB and on the road as we know which has somehow been corrected by keeping his team in the game in route to a 3-0 away record...Tomko getting days bewteen starts should help...thinking KC as well

train...Cueto hasnt looked good for awhile now but hate taking Cubbies after a Sunday game which they have to travel playing a Reds team who was just swept....also Ramirez's absence really hurts with Soriano working his way back...only Fuki from the LH side making Chi to much like DET imo......tough game if I took Cincy it would be in spite of Cueto who could really shut down CHI because they have so many RHBs...have to wait on this but I might lean Reds here......

GL all:cheers::shake:
 
:cheers:Okay calling it night really only went over the 2 AL games and just eyeballed the rest...

So the Tigers to me are in a great spot here ...

The WSox really need a win to avoid a 4 game sweep in Tor and 0 for 6 trip...Vazquez just 1 run in 16 innings past 2 starts and we broke down the splits already. Last 4 seasons Javy has really done well with his command and control the key to being successful vs him seems to be making him work so his pitch count gets high and the team most successful at that is the Yankees. About 160 (48,50,56 and 10) walks in his last 675 innings nearly 2 per 9 and 10bbs nearly 39 inn this year which 4 came vs NYY...Tor doesnt work the count that well..just under 4 walks per game...actually more like 3.5 per looking at the starting lineup....as pointed out already by VK and short the home plate ump tends to be tight which should be worse for McGowan since WSox work pitchers and his command is inconsistent so far....have to look at the over....we saw 7 runs today Vazquez slightily better then Contreras but Halladay alot better then MCGowan..

Like KC as Santana as I said lucky to be 3-0 with TWO 1 run wins and he should have lost @ Det IMO. KC lots of LHB which gives Santana trouble...Tomko should get 6 innings in here seems to do better with 6 days rest IMO...wont weigh his last LAA start to heavily but as VK pointed out 2 out hits hurt him but also Vlad DNP....Royals have momentum from the Cle series and LAA didnt look very good this past week at home vs LAA and Balt...

Probably like the OAK over ...Eveland seems to be regressing and O's finally hit well of a LH today in Saunders so seeing another one is a plus IMO especially since Mora hit well 3-5 Hr & Millar , Hernandez got 2 hits apiece....for Oakland Big Hurt in the middle gives them a solid presence vs LHP and I think they will be tough on them in Oak...Olson was solid vs TB but they dont hit LH well so a test away and versus a better lineup.....certainly smells like an over though...

Probably more interested in SEA . Despite the travel McLaren supposedly was chewing this team out daily for its play in NYY one way to get retributiion is play well in front of your fans...hate the travel aspect but they were down early in NY today...Rangers not hitting LHP at all just 1-5 now...Washburn has done well getting LHB out and really has been okay outside of his last start and at one time really owned Texas who is weak vs LHP IMO..Millwood 42 baserunners last 4starts and just under 24 innings...

In cincy they are home after being swept and send Cueto out. As much as I was down on home when I looked at the stats I realized I really shouldnt be. THB struggle vs him and look at Chi lineup which could still be w/o Ramirez. Cueto has lasted 7 in all 3 home starts and lost 5-3 , think 3-2 and won 3-1...little run support as u can see and the bats should some life on SUnday...they will send out probably5 LHB and have decent splits vs Dempster but a great oBP near 450 thanks in part to Dunns 9 walks...also Dempster was lucky that he beat Cincy at home because he recieved a 4 run JR from Lee in the b5th on a night when balls were carrying out at Wrigley...Dempster has been succesful IMO mainly due to facing poor teams and huge run support ...dont get me wrong he has pitched pretty solid but tough to lose vs bad teams when your getting alot of offense...think 19 his last , 13 another and at least 6 in each win..Brewers twice , Pirates twice I think and Nats...Milw cant hit RH all that well...

Didnt even dig at all with the Coors game...so pass for now

We started by talking about the Dbacks rookie seems likely I back them but have to look closer at Moyer and the Philly lineup which probably strikes out to much to be successful vs him IMO...Philly stole 2 games from SFG at home so they arent exactly playing well...more research needed...

The game in LAD might be another under cause of how both have hit vs RHP...still want to do more research .....

sleep time......
 
vegaskyle said:
kansas city is a definite play.

tempted to take white sox and over , especially with kulpa calling balls and strikes and mcgowans inconsistent control

dempster doesnt fair well vs the reds bats .

Those are the only three games so far that have my interest.
Click to expand...

DEMPSTER is 4-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.669.His team's record is 6-2 (+5.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)

what?
 
trainwreck said:

DEMPSTER is 4-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.669.His team's record is 6-2 (+5.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)

what?
Click to expand...

think he might be looking at the batters right now and not career #'s vs a team name
 
yup renew

career vs dempster

dunn .500 ( 3 more total walks than AB )
keppinger .500
hopper .500
bako .375
griffey .318
patterson .294
hatteburg .286
votto .250
ross 250

he has crushed encarnacion .111 and phillips .167

sometimes i am not clear about what i am saying. sorry bout that.
 
and thats what discussion is for i guess... im bored. capping away and hope to provide some thoughts on a couple of games. boy my sleep schedule is messed up right now
 
cards/over

ubaldo is still struggling although the only W the Rox have when he is pitching is when he is at home. 1 start this year vs the Cards and he either gave up a hit or walked guys and he still holds a 1.93 WHIP this year. Last 5 games cards hitting .325/ OBP of .384. STL has also been extremely productive vs RHP on the road hitting .279/OBP .377 and a 9-4 record avging 5.1 runs and almost a 1:1 BB/K ratio The rockies started to heat up and trends say this goes under but I dont trust either pitcher on the hill.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Blankets is fairly high on this Scherzer guy
Click to expand...

Espn and a couple other places are gushing over him in their preview capsules.

I read Sport Nut in this thread, and it validated it for my purposes, since he doesn't have any other agenda other than analysis...:popcorn:

I've got to figure out somewhere to watch it on the tube. Maybe I'll finally do that live on my computer thing....Never done that yet, but I really want to see this kid's stuff tomorrow night.....

What's up Betcrimes! :shake:
 
i dont think so VK.

early lean to the dodgers though, billingsleys has to turn this around soon enough. maybe finally settling into a role here after going from RP to SP this season already.
 
yeah renew i also liked that game to be high scoring. just not a fan of banking on 11 runs in the national league.

dennis -- yeah i am actually considering going to the local book to watch that game so i can see him too. i have never seen the guy and they talk about him like the next nolan ryan
 
Trainwreck, if I read SportNut about the "Dempster doesn't fare well against the Reds"....he indicated that while Demp was 4-1 against the Reds, he received a healthy dose of Cubs bat's run support.........

If I'm incorrect, my bad....
 
lol... i actually didnt even look at the total, damn thats high... maybe a TT play on the Cards. Cards pen is definitely solid, the Rockies pen a little different
 
i figure they make billingsley about a 130 favorite .... which i will be tempted to take the way the dodgers have hit lefties and with perez on the mound.
 
VK, I get pretty excited to see debuts such as this.....doesn't sound like his stuff is just hype......but we'll see, eh?
 
olson impressed me a little bit in his last start and i think it was tuck321 who said that this kid might end up being decent. You would think the A's offense would be better against lefties but it hasnt translated so far ... though thomas just got there. I like eveland a little but dont want to lay the chalk. any of you guys have thoughts on that one ?
 
hes being compared to joba and papelbon with his ability to get the K. still everytime he made a jump to a new league hes dominated, with the exception of one but they also think his arm got tired and he picked it up eventually or the next year.
 
a month ago cueto was unhittable ..... now people want to lay money on dempster on the road vs him ... so i want to see his stuff.

yeah the col/stl total is 10. that s what i mean .. need 11 to win. i think it gets there but i just hate trying that in the national league.
 
vegaskyle said:
olson impressed me a little bit in his last start and i think it was tuck321 who said that this kid might end up being decent. You would think the A's offense would be better against lefties but it hasnt translated so far ... though thomas just got there. I like eveland a little but dont want to lay the chalk. any of you guys have thoughts on that one ?
Click to expand...

not very familiar with either. I had a perception of eveland not being a pitcher to trust early from a couple things I read but he defied that, still haven't seen either pitch yet. id lean under but not really a clue.
 
Played the monday Oak/Balt over 9 and it felt kinda gross and yucky after watching the A's anemic offense over the weekend against the Rangers......:eek:
 
vegaskyle said:
you betting the dbacks guys ?
Click to expand...

probably so with a cross country trip and a LHP going up against the d-backs who just saw one of the best LHP in the game. Moyer has pitched relatively well this year but the 2 times he faced the d-backs last year he gave up 5 HRs and this team often hits HRs. Just lost 2 of 3. Never seen Scherzer before.

Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 vs these guys though.
 
VK, I just played D-Backs -140 @ betjamaica

probably so with a cross country trip and a LHP going up against the d-backs who just saw one of the best LHP in the game. Moyer has pitched relatively well this year but the 2 times he faced the d-backs last year he gave up 5 HRs and this team often hits HRs. Just lost 2 of 3. Never seen Scherzer before.

Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 vs these guys though.

guess i might have to tail the board on this one.
 
attention detroit backers

While Granderson is likely to play Monday, Leyland plans to shake up his lineup, but wouldn't specify how after Sunday's loss.
"There will be changes (Monday)," said Leyland

so i'd wait to lock in on them till lineups are announced, even if we lose a couple cents on the line movement....

GL:cheers:
 
trainwreck said:

DEMPSTER is 4-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.669.His team's record is 6-2 (+5.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+1.9 units)

what?
Click to expand...

i agree with you about the cubs.....i think they have been one of the hottest teams in baseball consistantly putting up 3+run innings. Also, on the flipside the cincinnatti reds are 1-10 in game 1 of a series with a 7.13 ERA is those games. I already pulled teh trigger on Chicago.
 
Up early whole 3 hours of sleep...

In regards to Oak vs LHP its kinda of a read in bewteen the lines thing with me and it applies more to them at home since they really dont have many hitters who I see as well above average which tends to mean IMO that they will perform much better at home then away...

Anyway Oak has faced 2 LHP at home ...

Murray from Texas the other night 5.1 Inn 6 H 3R 2ER 2bb 2K
Liriano from Minny a week ago 0.2 Inn 5 H 6 R 6ER 3 Bb 0K

so two starts 6 Inn 11 H 9R 8ER 5BB 2 K in those games...

They didnt much at all vs Saunders or Bedard away but should we expect them to? Granted Saunders was excellent vs them but he was pitching well up to that start and well Bedard was home and one of the most highly regarded LHP in the game.

The two moves signing Frank Thomas and Rajaj Davis is what turned me onto the possibility of them hitting or at least scoring runs vs LHP...heres why.....

c- Suzuki (RHB) he was just 8 for 53 vs LHP last season but 3Hr 12 Rbi showed some potential as a run producer vs LH. Clearly .151 is terrible but I dont think I am reading to much into believing he will get alot better vs LHP. Most importantly he is a RHB means he sees the ball better from a LH and the LH mistakes more likely to hang over the middle of the plate while the picthers ball is breaking into him . So that theme will be constant as I always want to see a RHB vs a LHP..so far 8 -33 is better but no pop yet

1B-Barton or Sweeney : With Barton out there your going LH vs LH . The kid is supposed to be one of the better prospects in the game and last year was 8-27 6bb 7 k but 5 doubles , 1hr 2 rbi...pretty impressive...barton just 7-33 so far vs LHP but again 2 doubles and 2 triples nice to see...he started the year slow going 1-13 against Boston in 4 gams which he faced Lester twice and lets not forget the impact the Japan trip could have had on this Oak (and Boston) players...

If they go with Mike Sweeney (RHB) he is 12 - 34 4bb and 0Ks so far . 353. They only knock is 0Hrs and 4 Rbi just 2 doubles so lacking the pop needed so far. Last year .301 vs LH 2Hr 13 Rbi 25 for 83 6bb and 6Ks. Once he started getting injured often a few years back his splits vs LH started to slip until rebounding last year still a career 293 hitter vs them but its lower then his 302 vs RHP...anyway a nice alternative if they choose to sit Barton or rest Big Hurt...

2B- Ellis : (RHB )is scuffling vs LHP so far 7-42 but also at home 12-61 .170. Basically I say that to indicate its really more hitting at home then it i sLJP persay IMO..Last year vs LH .313 11 Hr 28 Rbi , in 2006 just 2 Hrs 11 rbi in 90 atbats but 18bb (.400OBP) to Ks indicating to me he saw the ball well just didnt get the best results , in 2005 313 3 Hr 15 rbi in 112 abs. Now clearly 2006 was his best run production and its hard to know if he can duplicate that but he is still relatively young at 31(almost). previous 2 years he was 440abs 282avg 12 hrs 52 rbi and last year 580abs 19hrs 76 rbi .276 avg if you prorate his 2005-2006 seasons he would have been around 17Hrs and 70Rbis so really all 2007 was him showing that he could maintain his production playing everyday rather then labeling it a career year.. another way to look at is if he had 438abs his avg from 05 and 06 he would have hit 14Hrs and had 57 rbi prorating his 2007 season..which he did avg 12hrs and 52 rbi..bottomline his number for 3 straight have remained basically the same...

SS- Crosby (RHB) Crosby battled injuries past few years and his performance really declined. He started the Spring healthy and hit well in ST looking more like the player he was when he first came back. The kid had 22hrs and 64 Rbi ( 34 doubles) as rook despite his 239 average (58bb 141 Ks). Then in 05 he was 276 (raised his avg 40points) with 9Hrs and 38 rbi in a tad more then half a year 84 games ( also though increased his walks while drastically cutting his Ks... 35bbs to 54Ks in 67 less games) So assume 17hrs and 75ish RBI that campaign...but the injury derailed him big time. Battled injuries in both 06 and 07 leaving him with less then a 100 games played in eachand 350 ish abs. The results 226 and .229 with 17hrs and 71 rbi combined in those 700abs...As a rook Crosby just 194 vs LH but in 2005 when he was showing improvement at the plate before the injury 314 4hrs 11rbi in 102 abs with a 940OPS. So that was the type of hitter I was expecting him to be this year vs LH and well so far
11-34 1Hr 5 rbi .310 Avg and 910 OPS...

3B-Donnie Murphy(RHB) vs LHP (Hannahan as well) . Granted we think Donnie Murphy light hitting inf who hit 220 last year. Then you see his splits and 12-43
.279 4hrs 12 rbi and 968 OPS and you think hmmm some potential here. Granted it sort of came out of no where but the fact he went yard twice in 34 abs this year tells me he can do it again. The funny part is the Hrs so far came off RHP which he was terrible against entering this year 14-75 with 23 Ks last year ! This year 3-17 vs LH but 5 walks and 6Ks again shows he isnt seeing the ball that poorly just a matter of time before the stats improve.

OF- Emil Brown (RHB) 11-33 .333 1hr 8 rbi so far. last year 317 4 hr 31 rbi in 145 abs in what was a terrible season for him overall. In 2006 8hrs 27rbi but only 236 in 157abs. More important for a guy like Brown is run production IMO anyway. In 2005 313 9hrs 32 rbi in 187abs. So real quality middle of the type order run producer vs LHP.

OF- Rajaj Davis (RHB) another guy like Donnie Murphy IMO. First they bat him 9th and while Oak doesnt steal many bases nice to have speed anyway. So far just 2-14 vs LHP in 08 with SFG and Oak but he is 5-14 with Oak as compard to 1-18 with SF so assuming that he is better vs LH since coming to Oak ( checked 2-8)without looking 4-6 at home in the 2 games started by LH and 0-5 inthe 2 road games started by LHP granted not all the abs vs LHP.. Last year 29 -97 299avg and 13bbs gave hime a 384 OBP with 1HR 6RBI. So potential is there. he is taking abs from Denorfia who was 5-23 vs LHP with just 1 bb and 3 rbi .215 avg and 250 OBP but Denorfia(16-52 career vs LHP) has upside as well but he missed the 07 season so he could need sometime but a player much like Davis anyway.....

OF- Jack Cust (LHB) now that he is hitting its likely Denorfia sits or platoons with Davis in CF rather then play LF like he has of late. Anway Cust says no player worries about bats like he does & his latest shipment was what he needed(recieved in SEA). Last year only 218 with 7hr and 26 rbi in only 124abs but while the 33bbs were great the 59Ks meant he struck out just about HALF the time vs LHP ! So if he makes contact he is 27-69 .391 vs LHP but he only makes contact 52-53% of the time..ouch !Anyway just 3-18 vs LH so far. The key is maybe the bats 11-24 past week 3hrs 5rbi all the Hrs came past 4 games which he is 8-14 with 3bbs and 3ks.

DH-Frank Thomas (RHB) Shockingly he is just 2-24 vs LHP and probably thats a huge reason why he was cut in Tor or told he would see less time because thats his biggest asset to a lineup his production vs LHP. Granted he was 10-60 in Tor since coming to Oak 10-37 but no power yet. Anyway last year .336avg 9hr 32 rbi vs LH in 122abs and get this 1.062 OPS! Granted 06 in Oak 9hrs 18rbi in 106abs but still a .960 OPS. Back in 05 he barely played still 4hrs 8rbi 281 avg in 32 abs and in 04 again battled injuries only 10-50 .200 3hr 7rbi but 18bbs 10ks so despite hitting 200 still a 400 OBP ! Then 2003 clearly along time ago 315 avg 17hrs 35rbi in 149abs 34bb 22ks 1.177 OPS. The POINT is simply when Thomas is healthy his production vs LHP seems to be through the roof so I expect alot of improvement from him.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class=yspdetailttl>G</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>R</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>H</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>2B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>3B</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>HR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>RBI</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>BB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>K</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SB</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>CS</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>AVG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OBP</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>SLG</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>OPS</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Left</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1032</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1906</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>416</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>617</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>123</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>160</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>419</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>446</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>297</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.324</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.450</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.643</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1.093</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16> vs. Right</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2195</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>6144</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1062</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1812</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>368</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>356</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1271</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1201</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1063</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>26</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>16</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.295</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.411</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.532</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.942</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Looking at his career numbers he has to be one of the top 5 RHB vs LHP in his generation..for his career 1hr every 11.91 abs...and takeout the years where he battled injuries and its probably more like 1 every 10abs...

So basically what I see is an Oak team who draws walks , work pitchers and might have 1 possibly 2 LHB at most in there lineup when seeing a LH. That means all atbats for that oppsoing SP should be tough. The key to how good they are is deep. They need Frank Thomas to be the middle of the order presence he was last year in Tor , they need Ellis to hit more like his 2007 splits vs LH even if the run production drops off , they need Crosby and Brown to continue what they are doing(even Sweeney). They need quality abs from Cust and Barton if they do play. They need Suzuki to continue to improve vs LH like Crosby did from rook to soph season (which he is) , while getting Davis(or Deneforia) to produce like he did in 2007 along with Murphy....

Lot of maybes and questions but the GOOD part is all these guys basically had real solid 07 splits vs LH outside of Crosby health related and Suzuki rookie related.....and for the most part the most relevant stats are the most recent ones.....

This is why I see as OAK really having alot of potential vs LHP granted when they travel it may not be the same mostly IMO because these guys arent exactly 300 hitters so dropoff will be apparent when they play away though better parks to hit in.


Olson was solid at home allowing just 3 hits and 4 walks through 6 innings battling out of only 1 3rd inning jam before tiring inthe 7th. Where he only allowed a wlk and double before be pulled but that inherited runner did score. So while I think he is a decent prospect who can have be solid he still walks to many 5 here in 6.2 inn and that was at home. He also faced TB a team with alot of LHB and few RHB which are solid. Upton , Gomes , Longoria , Navarro and Bartlett went 2-13 that day. Granted some high upside with these guys but they arent much different then what Olson was facing in AAA IMO. ast year his 3 road starts produced an 8.03 ERA and 353 BAA compared to 277BAA and 6.41 ERA his WHIP rose from 1.76 to 2.59 we are talking 5 home starts vs 3 road starts (counting his 2008 home start in that comparision).

Also with Olson looking at the teams he has faced in 8 starts WSox in 07 struggled vs LHP cause they had alot of LHB unlike 2008 , TB same deal really which happened to be his best starts...otherwise 3 starts vs Boston , 1 vs Tor and 1 vs Texas which all were away expet 2 games vs Boston at home his numbers were 23 INN 31 H 24 runs all earned 20bbs 20Ks...51 baserunners in 23 innings...and more then a RUN per inning ! Yikes!

So you have the MONEYBALL A's facing a LHP with COMMAND problems...seems interesting...Olson only faced Big Hurt who was 1-1 with a 3 RUN HR and a 1bb in 2 plate appearances.....and remember alot of RHB today ...91 outs vs RH(30.1inns) 38hits 25bb 23 ks 2.08 WHIP and 319BAA in his 8 game career and that went way down after his TB start....and OAk with its weaker lineup earlier it faced Lester ta home who had struggled vs them in Japan , Sabathia who they beat home and aay 4runs in 5+inn in oak and lost to Lee who is probably the best SP in baseball so far and is the best LHP so far in the AL. So not much to weigh other then what I have seen lately vs Liriano and Murray which Texas pen also threw 3+ innings of NOHIT ball...also Balt has a lH closer as well in Sherrill.....

:shake:
 
Waiting for lineups to come out before I really play anything though took KC early because I expected that would be the best number I would see.

Some NL shit..

Reds host Cubbies:

Interesting stuff about Chicago and there widly inconsistent play. They are just 3-7 L10 games after starting 15-6. I already mentioned how they have struggled on the road at just .247 4.6 runs in 14 games but when you see the home numebrs it becomes clearer 7.18runs per and .315 avg in 17 games. Then I look at there past 13 games took about all or nothing...7 times they scored 7 or more runs and 6times 3 or less. Not suprising they are 6-1 scoring 7 runs and 0-6 scoring 3 runs in this stretch.

Ramirez is still questionable but really doubtful and basically Mike Fontenot is his replacement. Granted FOntenot is hitting 294 and LH but he is also 5'8 replacing a legit middle of the lineup threat. Who also happend to be 4-38 lifetime vs Cincy with 11Ks to 1 BB.

So we can expect 2 LH's in Fuki and Fontenot. Fukudome is night and day so far home and away. How bout 232 oHrs 4Rbi 13/56 abs (6 something OPS) compared to .448 1Hr 9 Rbi 26/58 1.191 OPS!!!

On the road for Cubbies:
Soto .340 2Hrs 8 rbi 18-53
Cedeno 9-26 .346 3rbi
Lee 17-58 1Hr 9 Rbi .293

R.Johnson 11-43 .256 0Hr 4 rbi
Theriot 13-51 .255 0Hr 2 Rbi
Soriano 11-45 .244 2Hr 7 Rbi
DeRosa 7-49 .143 1Hr 5 Rbi

Fontenot 6-22 .273 2hr 7rbi

105 - 403 8hrs 45 rbi in 14 games .261 AWAY but Ramirez represents the run production 3hrs 10 rbi away that will be missing...

So Cuteo starts for Cincy and he was terrible last time out but then again why do we have such high expectations for a young kid on the road? If he is gonna be good chances are it will be at home.

7 Inn 8H 5 R
7Inn 5H 3R 2ER
7Inn 1H 1R

RHB are 20-89 with 2bbs and 24Ks which is why I harp on how many Cubs righties will be facing him coupled with there lack o success on the road. The kid has not recieved any run support 3,2,1 ,3,3,2 thats 14 runs in 6starts or 2.33 per !!!!!

Dempster is the opposing SP and basically in the opposite position because he is a RHP facing mostly a LH lineup. Also Cubs have not faced Cueto and Reds already saw Dempster with okay results 6inn 5h 4r 5bb 3K . They got to him early and lost a 3-2 lead in the b5th whenRamirez blasted a 3run Hr all the runs came on 2Hrs on a windy Wrigley day vs Harang.

So far Dempster is the ANTI-Cueto. Run support out the ASS...
6 ,6 ,9 ,13 ,3 ,19

Also he has pitched at home in 4 of his starts and remember the difference in Cubbs run production home and away. He split his 2 road starts. Despite pitching really well 14 inn 5 h 3r 2 er 5bb 10 K but he faced Pitt and Wash at times the worst offensive teams in the NL along with SD and SFG..pathetic is the proper way to describe there production for long stretches of 2008. Last 4 starts for him 24 inn 18h 13 r 12 er 15bb 13K so medicore type numbers while facing Cincy , Milw , Pitt , @ Wash...all struggling lineups well Milw struggles vs RHP which Dempster is and who Cueto was real good vs in both his starts. his splits vs LHB are great so far but who has he faced Prince Fiedler ..slow start to 2008 , Nick Johnson , McLouth the rare slump he had was during thi stretch I believe , LaRoche ...the reds guys were just 2-13 but 4 walks as well...Last 3 years from the pen LHB were 1.53 WHIP .259BAA , 1.96 WHIP .310 BAA , 1.97 WHIP .278 BAA . He will face probably 5 LHB here...


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Great American Demptser career</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16> </TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD><TD class=yspscores height=16></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
22gms 9sts 0-5 3svs 65.2 Inn 82H 54R 52ER 9Hr 48BB 56K 7.13 ERA 1.98 WHIP .303 BAA

The Cubs have averaged 8.6 runs and outscored their opponents by nearly five runs in their 18 wins, but they’ve put up just 2.7 runs per game in their 13 losses.

That performance prompted Cincinnati to bring in Mario Soto, the director of its Dominican academy, to work on Cueto’s mechanics.
“We’re trying to get him comfortable and get a good grip on his changeup and work on the slider a little bit,” Soto told the Reds’ official Web site

Plus the minor factor of playing the Sunday game @ Busch then having to travel to Cincy afterwards.

Reds had 11 hits yesterady after a 19-123 .154 4 game stretch that prodcued 5 runs! Both teams SUCK in recent Mays 20-40 Cubs and 21-40 Reds. Reds return home after a long trip taht started 3-1 but ended with 5 straight losses...

Both pens should be available...

Reds have sucked in series opener going 1-10 but Cubs have lost 3 of 5 openers on the road as well sneaking by Pitt and Col late to win...

So basically I see Cincy returning home after a poor road trip putting emphasis on this game while Reds SP gets to face lineup that look sfavorable to him and Cubbies SP is in a prk he doesnt pitch well in combined with a lineup full of LH which tend to give him trouble...

Did the splits for Dempster vs Cincy yesterday so they are somewhere in the thread...very high OBP vs him...

2 minor changes Pie a LH starts for Johnson in CF and is 5-16 away but 6ks . patterson a LH sits for Freel who is hot now and hitting 328. 6 starts on the trip had at least 2 huts 4 times and 1-2 the other game witha hit in each. 11-25 2bb 2ks...6-11 in games started by RH in that span...

REDS -110
 
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