Playoffs

Pretty amazing RRL odds -1' +450 or

910 Tampa Bay Rays -2 +815

Haven't played it, but it's tempting insurance. If they get JV out of there they can get after that pen
 
Model 3-1 yesterday and 10-5 this postseason

Picking HOU tonight but show price way high. 0-4 in postseason fade value so now matter how high the price...if they win, it's a good bet

View attachment 43476
 
​
Adding a few small props and the over​
​
  1. 909 Houston Astros 1st 5 Innings Over 2½ +130
    J Verlander - R Listed D Castillo - R Listed
    .4/.52
  2. 2003 HOU/TAM score 1st inn yes* +110 vs HOU/TAM no
    .6/.66
  3. 909 Houston Astros/Tampa Bay Rays* Over 7½ -108
    J Verlander - R Listed D Castillo - R Listed
    1.08/1
  4. 909 Houston Astros* -220 vs Tampa Bay Rays for 1st 5 Innings
    J Verlander - R Listed D Castillo - R Listed
    1.1/.5

image

View attachment 43477
 
mrpickem said:
Pretty amazing RRL odds -1' +450 or

910 Tampa Bay Rays -2 +815

Haven't played it, but it's tempting insurance. If they get JV out of there they can get after that pen
Click to expand...

I’ve learned to always go with your gut, thank you for pointing this play out. I had to take a piece!
 
2019 Playoffs ~ [22-16 +6.67]

Royal ass-rape I took yesterday going 1-5 and losing a little over 5u :beat:

Rays have been 4 of the top 8 biggest dogs in the playoffs over last 10 years

View attachment 43480

3 on that list ironically were the Twins vs NYY but in 2009 and 2017

Also favs of -190 or more are 24-7 +13.3% ROI over last 10 year including 10 in a row before last night :shocked:

View attachment 43481


View attachment 43484

View attachment 43482

View attachment 43483

Current Teams' Playoff Record Last 10 Years

View attachment 43485

Scheduled Starters Since All-Star Break

View attachment 43486

Kind of surprised Braves w/Folty are 10-1 since the break while St Loo with Flaherty only 10-6

​
Early Game and I'm leaning Nats​
  1. 914 Atlanta Braves +1½ -170 vs St. Louis Cardinals
    J Flaherty - R Listed M Foltynewicz - R Listed
    1.45/.85
  2. 914 Atlanta Braves +101 vs St. Louis Cardinals
    J Flaherty - R Listed M Foltynewicz - R Listed
    1.9/1.92
  3. 913 St. Louis Cardinals/Atlanta Braves*Under 7½ +100
    J Flaherty - R Listed M Foltynewicz - R Listed
    1.5/1.5

72325.jpg
 
2019 Playoffs ~ [22-21 -1.08]

Well I had a nice run the first few days of the playoffs but I have managed to give it all back in last 2 days(1-10 -12.7u)...not a happy day at the pickem compound. Oh well, nothing to do but move forward.

Since the break Gerrit Cole has been next to unbeatable as stros have gone 14-1 in his starts. Only argument you may make is Glasnow is much fresher arm as Cole has tos 50inn since Sept 1 while Tyler has logged less than 20. Also the Rays benefit more from the off day as their pen gets extra rest and they have been what's held this team together and made them a factor down the stretch. Also Rays pen has accounted for 17inn this series vs less than 9 from HOU.

That said I really think HOU is the much better team, at home, with a top 5ish starter and the path to the championship arguably looks easier with LAD eliminated. I know the road team has won 10 straight 5th game deciders in the DS.
Road team in playoffs game 5 decider are 22-10 in the 16 year history of SDQL
View attachment 43509

​
Still I digress...​
  1. 952 Houston Astros -270 vs Tampa Bay Rays
    T Glasnow - R Listed G Cole - R Listed
    3.78/1.4
  2. 951 Tampa Bay Rays/Houston Astros Under 7 -110
    T Glasnow - R Listed G Cole - R Listed
    1.1/1
  3. 952 Houston Astros -265 vs Tampa Bay Rays for 1st 5 Innings
    T Glasnow - R Listed G Cole - R Listed
    3.18/1.2

View attachment 43510
 
Another way to look at it, in the 16 year history on SDQL, playoff favorites more than -180 are 42-14 +11% ROI on money line or 26-17 on run line for 21% ROI(SDQL only started tracking RL in 2009)

Since 2015 these same favs have went 20-3

View attachment 43511
 
Prices have dropped a tad since earlier when I played stros...gonna add a little RL

​
  1. 952 Houston Astros -1½ -120 vs Tampa Bay Rays
    T Glasnow - R Listed G Cole - R Listed
    1.2/1
  2. 952 Houston Astros 1st 5 Innings -½ -150
    T Glasnow - R Listed G Cole - R Listed
    1.2/.8
1570639551618.jpg
 
2019 Playoffs ~ [26-21 +3.32]

4-0-1 yesterday +4.4u

​
  1. 901 Washington Nationals/St. Louis Cardinals* Over 7½ -110
    A Sanchez - R Listed M Mikolas - R Listed
    1.98/1.8
  2. 902 St. Louis Cardinals* -1½ +170 vs Washington Nationals
    A Sanchez - R Listed M Mikolas - R Listed
    1/1.7
  3. 902 St. Louis Cardinals* -126 vs Washington Nationals
    A Sanchez - R Listed M Mikolas - R Listed
    1.26/1
 
​
2-2 yesterday unposted
  1. 907 New York Yankees +1½ -140 vs Houston Astros
    J Paxton - L Listed J Verlander - R Listed
    1.4/1
  2. 907 New York Yankees +158 vs Houston Astros
    J Paxton - L Listed J Verlander - R Listed
    1.5/2.37
  3. 907 New York Yankees/Houston Astros Over 7½ -113
    J Paxton - L Listed J Verlander - R Listed
    1.02/.9
May also take yes to score in 1st


132260.jpg
 
910 Washington Nationals -125 vs St. Louis Cardinals
J Flaherty - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed
2/1.6
 
Playoffs [30-27 +0.97]

Like both favorites at first glance today. Definitely taking Nats as they are just enfuego! However something tells me NY at home is really gonna give HOU all they want and maybe even stun Cole with an upset. Not totally sure how I will play it yet.

​
  1. 914 Washington Nationals -1½ +135 vs St. Louis Cardinals
    D Hudson - R Listed P Corbin - L Listed
    .8/1.08
  2. 914 Washington Nationals -157 vs St. Louis Cardinals
    D Hudson - R Listed P Corbin - L Listed
    2.51/1.6
 
Starters Today Playoff Record
TeamStarterW-LMarginProfit
AstrosGerrit Cole430.5795.0
CardinalsDakota Hudson101.0100.0
NationalsPatrick Corbin01-6.0-100.0
YankeesLuis Severino43-0.7130.0

Severino and Cole both 4-3 in playoffs with similar numbers
Luis 3-1 at home in playoffs
View attachment 43583

NY at home in playoffs last 7 years = 65% ROI on RL

View attachment 43584
 
​
Lets GO YANKEES!!!​
  1. 912 New York Yankees* +1½ -125 vs Houston Astros
    G Cole - R Listed L Severino - R Listed
    2/1.6
  2. 912 New York Yankees* +138 vs Houston Astros
    G Cole - R Listed L Severino - R Listed
    1.5/2.07

 
Playoffs [32-29 +0.15]

Would lean NY but no starters announced and likely rainout anyhoo. Washout will help NY get normal rest for Tanaka and Paxton but my be hard on their pen for 4 games in 4 days...

Nats on fire at the right time, possible they get a week off and that could effect their bats, esp if they face HOU. Don't think it will matter as much if NY makes series.

The book seems to favor stros a little more strongly than reality imo

View attachment 43603

View attachment 43604
View attachment 43605
 
Looks pretty cut n dry​
  1. 919 Houston Astros/New York Yankees* Over 8½ -117
    Z Greinke - R Listed M Tanaka - R Listed
    2.34/2
  2. 920 New York Yankees* -131 vs Houston Astros
    Z Greinke - R Listed M Tanaka - R Listed
    3.7/2.8
 
Playoffs [33-30 -1.22]

Maybe the Yankees are done, but I gotta try them one more time tonight to extend the series.

​
Last hurrah !​
  1. 922 New York Yankees +1½ -130 vs Houston Astros
    J Verlander - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed
    2.08/1.6
  2. 922 New York Yankees* +134 vs Houston Astros
    J Verlander - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed
    .85/1.14
  3. 921 Houston Astros/New York Yankees* Under 7½ +105
    J Verlander - R Listed J Paxton - L Listed
    1.2/1.26

If When NY loses, here's the fix
  • fire cashman
  • fire rothschild
  • fire all the "analytics team" nerds
  • sell the team to owners who actually want to win
  • Replace Boone with someone who isnt narcoleptic
  • get rid of gardner
  • get rid of didi
  • get rid of stanton, if you can
  • get rid of Gary
  • get rid of encarnacion
  • sign grandal
  • trade for lindor
  • sign Rendon
  • sign Cole and possibly strasburg
  • teach clint frazier how to field at a major league level
  • trick some retard team into taking on some of JA Happs contract

That fixes the Yankees, but here's what'll actually happen
  • everybody keeps their job
  • everybody on the roster stays aside from CC who planned to retire
  • Media makes a huge deal about pitching and the assure us "SP is our #1 priority!!" just like last year
  • Sign some shitter like Porcello, who will regress even more. just to shut yankee fans up and have someone to market
  • rendon goes to another competitor
  • Cole goes to the Angels
  • Business as usual. Somehow the yanks limp in to the WC1 spot with shitty pitching and LOTS OF HOMERUNS!!!!
  • bounced out of the playoffs again
  • seats were filled all year so nobody in the FO gives a fuck
  • even if seats arent full, theyll just blame it on "declining interest in the sport" and come out with commercials aimed at blacks and women

71379.jpg
 
Verlander on 2.13
Paxton on 4 4.63
Yanks a little short of good pitchers when not playing Minn
 
[36-30 +2.45]

Not really sure what Hinch is doing. I was all set to pound the stros with Cole, but for some reason they seem to want to save him for game 7. Peacock is a decent starter and has definitely had some high points, but I know HOU wished Miley didn't go to hell down the stretch and they could run him out there. With this being the situation although I have several indicator pointing at HOU I am gonna have to roll with Yankees again. Their top 4 relievers have tossed 13.1 inn in the series and gave up 2 hits, 5BB, 15K and ZERO runs. (Chapman, Cessa, Britton and Kahnle). Paxton did em a solid last night eating up 8 inn and getting the pen fresh.
  • 923 New York Yankees +118 vs Houston Astros
    C Green - R Listed B Peacock - R Listed
    1.5/1.77
  • 923 New York Yankees/Houston Astros Over 9 +100
    C Green - R Listed B Peacock - R Listed
    2/2
  • 923 New York Yankees +1½ -178 vs Houston Astros
    C Green - R Listed B Peacock - R Listed
    1.55/.87
 
Playoff dogs between +110 & +160 have brought back 12.3% ROI since 2012 and 8-8 this year for +15% ROI

View attachment 43685

Playoff teams coming home for game 6 up 3-2 have went 9-3 in SDQL history

View attachment 43686

Home favorites in game 6 or 7 have went 9-2 since 2012. Also 17-9 in SDQL history and an awesom 15-6 RL +79.7% RL

View attachment 43687

Like I said, there are several indicators on HOU...but Let's Fucking Go YANKEES!

View attachment 43689
 
mrpickem said:
[36-30 +2.45]

Not really sure what Hinch is doing. I was all set to pound the stros with Cole, but for some reason they seem to want to save him for game 7. Peacock is a decent starter and has definitely had some high points, but I know HOU wished Miley didn't go to hell down the stretch and they could run him out there. With this being the situation although I have several indicator pointing at HOU I am gonna have to roll with Yankees again. Their top 4 relievers have tossed 13.1 inn in the series and gave up 2 hits, 5BB, 15K and ZERO runs. (Chapman, Cessa, Britton and Kahnle). Paxton did em a solid last night eating up 8 inn and getting the pen fresh.
  • 923 New York Yankees +118 vs Houston Astros
    C Green - R Listed B Peacock - R Listed
    1.5/1.77
  • 923 New York Yankees/Houston Astros Over 9 +100
    C Green - R Listed B Peacock - R Listed
    2/2
  • 923 New York Yankees +1½ -178 vs Houston Astros
    C Green - R Listed B Peacock - R Listed
    1.55/.87
Click to expand...

Those nipps made a believer outta me.

The Yanks and over it is....

:cheers3:
 
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