Playoffs

[tuck321]

Now you can very accurately tell the Yankees where to go,

 

[mrpickem]

[38-33 +1.9u]

At current odds the value is definitely with the Nats but will they really win? It's very difficult not to back Cole as he has been tremendous down the stretch...well all season for that matter. 1-9 the HOU lineup is stronger and they're at home with the DH. Max can be lights out but hasn't had that great history in the playoffs.

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[mrpickem]

Favorites of 160 or more have won 80% of the games over last 4 years for 23% ROI

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[mrpickem]

Model only give HOU 56.7% chance of winning

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[mrpickem]

Chasing the line

Crazy how this game shows up on my chasing angle because the last time they played was in HOU and the stros were -135 even though it was in 2017
:rofl:

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[mrpickem]

Chasing total - unders showed up for same reason

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[mrpickem]

In SDQL history,
Home teams coming in hot(winners of 3 of 4) have won 65% of the time in series game one for 16.4% ROI

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So really my hands are tied...

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[mrpickem]

​	World Series Game 1​
	901 Washington Nationals/Houston Astros Over 6½ -115 M Scherzer - R Listed G Cole - R Listed 1.84/1.6 902 Houston Astros -1½ +120 vs Washington Nationals M Scherzer - R Listed G Cole - R Listed 1.5/1.8 902 Houston Astros -190 vs Washington Nationals M Scherzer - R Listed G Cole - R Listed 1.52/.8

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Actually I really like WAS and I may take some WAS series after tonight, just can't imagine them winning tonight.​

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[BenchCoach]

agree with ya tonight on the stros

 

[mrpickem]

​	[39-35 +0.48u]​
	904 Houston Astros -172 vs Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R Listed J Verlander - R Listed 3.01/1.75 903 Washington Nationals/Houston Astros Under 7 +102 S Strasburg - R Listed J Verlander - R Listed 1.5/1.53

As much as I have profited by fading Verlander this season, it's due to the fact the chalk was fukn ridiculous. At home HOU went 14-6 with JV on the hill laying an avg -272! He was over -400 five times and even closed -525 vs LAA on Sept 22...maybe the largest closing line ever. Still he completed arguably one of the best seasons ever, finishing with a whip of 0.80 for the 2nd best in the last 100 years(Pedro had 0.71 in 2000). With them odds, it makes 172 seem like a steal even vs the venerable Strasburg who's Nats have yet to taste defeat on Wednesday with him starting this year. Stras had a great year too, although slightly better at home, esp K's, BB and whip. His playoff numbers are spectacular on a fairly small 41inn sample. Runs will be hard to come by here, kicking myself in the ass for not jumping on this last night when it was still 7.5 but dont think it will matter as I can see this 2-1, 3-1 kinda game. Verlander will finally earn some credit here and the stros absolutely have to win this game...they cannot go to DC down 0-2. If Nats win, get the champagne ready as they will finish HOU in DC 4-0 or 4-1

 

[mrpickem]

This playoffs I am 1-7 fading the Nats including both RL & ML. I am however 3-0 betting on them. So I chalk that up as experience.

While Verlanders postseason numbers are good, he still has some spainin to do, what with an 0-4 series record with 5.67era

Look for him to be a man on a mission

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[mrpickem]

​	[39-37 -4.03u]​
	905 Houston Astros/Washington Nationals* Over 8 -110 Z Greinke - R Listed A Sanchez - R Listed 3/2.5 906 Washington Nationals* +1½ -135 vs Houston Astros Z Greinke - R Listed A Sanchez - R Listed 1.35/1 906 Washington Nationals* +131 vs Houston Astros Z Greinke - R Listed A Sanchez - R Listed 1.2/1.57

I bet the over yesterday, but would still hit it at 8. I'm 1-9 this postseason fading WAS but 3-0 backing them. Hard not to get behind these guys as they have won 8 straight and are 10-2 these playoffs. Also over the past 35 days the Nats are 20-3 while Hou is only 14-8

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[mrpickem]

​	[39-40 -9.58u]​
	908 Washington Nationals* Over 3½ -135 vs Houston Astros J Urquidy - R Listed P Corbin - L Listed 1.89/1.4 908 Washington Nationals* -109 vs Houston Astros J Urquidy - R Listed P Corbin - L Listed 2.18/2

Guess I been officially fucked by Washington, just like the rest of the league. But no way I can back Astros in a pen game when they burnt over 5 inn outta the pen last night. Kinda surprised they didn't run Cole back out there today. Had to resist urge to chase.

 

[mrpickem]

​	0-4 on sides in series, backing it back a tad​
	909 Houston Astros -1½ -135 vs Washington Nationals G Cole - R Listed J Ross - R Listed .81/.6 909 Houston Astros -210 vs Washington Nationals G Cole - R Listed J Ross - R Listed 1.05/.5

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[mrpickem]

I will add +200 or higher dogs are only 3-15 in 16 years of playoffs

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[mrpickem]

[41-42 -12.55u]

Well hit two last night for a whopping 1.1u. Was a little gun-shy after a bad run. HOU is really playing well all of a sudden. Stras getting big odds on the road, but can he do it again.

Looks like HOU ML and RL to me...again

Teams returning home up 3-2 are 10-3 in the last 16 years (10-1 last 11)
...however this is the first time a team won 3 straight away and returned home up 3-2 (in 16 years of SDQL)

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[lfhlaw]

Well with the Washington offense skidding, it makes it difficult IMO to try to go with Washington. What is it now...2-3 total runs in the past 3 games?

 

[mrpickem]

​	Last day...maybe​
	912 Houston Astros -1½ +125 vs Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R Listed J Verlander - R Listed 1.2/1.5 912 Houston Astros -173 vs Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R Listed J Verlander - R Listed 2.6/1.5

Try as I could, I just couldn't bring myself to back the hottest pitcher in these playoffs at +165 :shocked:

Damn we know it'll make a helluva story if WAS win and then Mad Max comes back for game 7 showdown. But alas...I've picked so many losers lately, no reason to stop now. Astros to finish them!

 

[inZane]

Any lean on the total?

 

[inZane]

Just clicked on the Nats team total over 2* -153, and the fukkin' thing changed to over 3* +123...

:angrymob:

 

[mrpickem]

Any lean on the total?

Dont have a real feel for the total, initial thought was under but stros bats are cooking and nats due

 

[mrpickem]

adding​
	4004 WAS/HOU no score 1st inn -135 vs WAS/HOU score 1st inn yes Fixed Price 1.08/.8

 

[mrpickem]

[41-45 -17.43u]

Another 0-3, hard to believe I actually started the playoffs 16-4, seems like such a distant memory. There was a large portion of my losses tied to WAS and NYY, but it is what it is. I'm sure I'll have something small on it tonight, but honestly I haven't got a clue...most likely a coin flip. I've accepted my losses this year of aprox 31u combined playoffs and regular season. It was lots of fun, not the losing, but the action. It won't really effect my financially but obviously I could have made much better use of the funds elsewhere. Duh!

Best of luck to all, but I'm not sure if I'll be posting here again this year.

:cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

fwiw, Nats fit the bill on the chasing angle

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[mrpickem]

​	What the hell
	913 Washington Nationals +129 vs Houston Astros M Scherzer - R Listed Z Greinke - R Listed 1.58/2.03 913 Washington Nationals/Houston Astros Over 7½ +100 M Scherzer - R Listed Z Greinke - R Listed 1/1