Monday Discussion Thread

not the greatest card in the world but i'm sure i'll find a few things.

really odd start time in stl, gonna be hot as balls on that field! i hate capping mets games but i also have a real hard time thinking this a even game? i don't love Manea but he better than pallante, mets lineup better than cards. maybe the travel? i dunno, seems cheap to play better team w better starter.
 
wish the juice was little cheaper but that Festa kid for twins should punch out 5+ easy vs scrubbies.
 
not real sure i understand that total in wrigley, shouldn't twins just tee off on hendricks? i like the festa kid to punch out some guys but i suspect he give up some runs also, freaking 8? i see wind blowing in but im only seeing 11mph, that isn't really enough to matter all that much is it?
 
Frank Costanza said:
Need to double check but I think the Chi Sox are officially eliminated from playoff contention.

I'm on day 13, I think, in a row of just ML fading them into a CFB parlay and I've vowed to keep doing it until they win a game. And then I'll probably start all over.
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they at 20 straight losses at moment ain't they? lol. its really hard to convince myself to lay that juice with oakland tho! i was gonna take a peak and see how often cws loses by 2+? i assume a bunch. a's are little plus money laying the -1.5! lol
 
2daBank said:
not the greatest card in the world but i'm sure i'll find a few things.

really odd start time in stl, gonna be hot as balls on that field! i hate capping mets games but i also have a real hard time thinking this a even game? i don't love Manea but he better than pallante, mets lineup better than cards. maybe the travel? i dunno, seems cheap to play better team w better starter.
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cards just put Siani on the IL also, his bat nothing special but from what i've seen his defense in center field prob worth a freaking run a game compared to the other clowns they have tried out there!
 
I made worst bet of MLB career last start with Corbin. Start before at home vs Padres he got hosed in 1st inning and gave up 3 with nonsense but shut them down the rest of way but Cease thru no hitter, so his next start I bet Arizona ff ttu They scored 17

He pitching tonight. I wouldnt be surprised if he pitches well, maybe ff under
 
jumper12 said:
Heaney and all the middle relief are not good. Astros need to score tonight but they might fade right out
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i was thinking houston felt cheap seeing how i really like Hunter Brown and like you said Heaney plus rangers middle relief not that good, the lack of offense stros produced over the weekend worries me tho. it not like they even faced rays best, i really expected them to hit Baz on friday and it just got worse from there!
 
jumper12 said:
I made worst bet of MLB career last start with Corbin. Start before at home vs Padres he got hosed in 1st inning and gave up 3 with nonsense but shut them down the rest of way but Cease thru no hitter, so his next start I bet Arizona ff ttu They scored 17

He pitching tonight. I wouldnt be surprised if he pitches well, maybe ff under
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corbin one those fucks who always been kinda tough for me to figure out also, him, lance lynn, couple others, basically do the exact opposite of how i cap them, lol.
 
i wasn't able to post before my plays yesterday but if it makes you feel any better @jumper12 i had wrote down my guy Gavin Williams k prop but for some inexplicable reason when i went to bet i played the 1st 5 under instead! of course he smashed his k number in like 3 innings but also gave up a ton of runs. just awful! k props were freaking great for me yesterday, unfortunately other plays not so much! finally lost a yankees ovsr, had that play in bunch of round robins, guess had to happen sometime.
 
jumper12 said:
Want to consider doger/phillie under but its hot as balls
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phillies getting plus super hard to pass up for me. the ff under did cross my mind as well but think with the heat and enough pop in those lineups more likely to play side. both teams sliding a bit but phillies scoring 11 runs the last 2 in seattle a decent sign i think, not a easy feat scoring runs in seattle off their pitching.
 
of course cubs ff ov 1.5 seems silly also. really not sure wtf i'm missing that they seeing in this game?
 
The mets played down to their competition with intraleague loser Angels. I expect they play differently tonight. I dont like watching them or their team really, selling runs with them tonight is -1.5/+135 My book only offering -2.5/-3.5 to Cardinals Id like Mets -2.5/-3.5 big + money on hot night as visitor
 
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jumper12 said:
Going to be strong NE winds tonight particularly earlier in game
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i only saw 11mph but no clue if that was current or during game? lol. they have to be 15+ to really concern me, even then the wind swirls so much there, felt like few the cards games this weekend it started out blowing one way but few innings later it was blowing another. even if we go ahead and assume strong blowing in im not sure how much it matters? i suppose we could get a bunch of warning track fly outs but we could also get plenty of line drives in gaps with hendricks pitching!
 
keep hoping the price on Festa ov 4.5 k's come down a bit but someone have to be crazy to hit that under so probably won't. then again line moves often baffle me!
 
jumper12 said:
The mets played down to their competition with intraleague loser Angels. I expect they play differently this series. I dont like twatching them or their team really, selling runs with them tonight is -1.5/+135 My book only offering -2.5/-3.5 to Cardinals Id like Mets -2.5/-3.5 big + money on hot night as visitor
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gonna be really hot with the goofy 4:15 start time. dont know if i ever seen a 4:15 start here in stl? odd. think it just a make up game tho, not a series. mets actually have to fly out to colorado for a series starting 2marro so i guess my only real concern here the time zone shifting and this extra game being thrown in. if this was normal circumstances i'd say this line is easily 20 cents short. just a question of how much ya value all the other crap? personally i can't stand when there extra shit thrown in as i have no clue how to incorporate that stuff into price? mets might be a really good fade in coors the 1st game or 2.
 
mets gotta go from west fo central then to mountain time in 3 day span playing every day. that could be a little rough.
 
jumper12 said:
Mets get 9 ABs on hot day vs mid pitcher after getting emberrassed. o4.5/-115 o5.5/+135 caught my eye
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i just don't like the travel schedule and this extra game thrown in and having to fly out to colorado after. maybe it hurts them more at coors but does concern me a bit here. i might regret it but leaning to just passing. Pham and Conteras have big numbers in limited ab's vs Manea. was thinking bout looking at both their h,r,rbi props since they have pham moved up into the 2 hole with Contreras behind him. like that better than where they been putting pham.

pallente is for sure hittable, his1st pitch strike and swinging strike rate both leave a lot to be desired. he throwing really high rate of fastball/sinkers, his slider doesn't rate all that well, his knuckle curve does but he don't throw it a lot. was kinda hoping for lindor h,r,rbi to be 1.5 but they hung a 2.5 +115 to over on fence with that.
 
jumper12 said:
If I was on Royals train tonight, 1st inning score +145, ff -110, -2.5/+195 Full rout -3.5/+270
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think im just rolling with over 10, little tough playing that with Singer pitching but sox bats so hot, they have hit him in past, at the very least hopefully they can get his pitch count up and into pen, neither pen scares me and i just hate not to involve the hottest hitting team in league if im playing over in some fashion.
 
Rox 24-29 at home, prolly profitable, that parkis nightmare for every visitor, looking for the overs at coors next, mets need to win tonight, coors is a crapshoot
 
Boston is filled with professional hitters, they will work that pitch count best they can. Red sox relief is trending much stronger. Martin will be back shortly. But tonight with the heat seems like the outlier game for total in series as weather moderates tomorrow
 
so guardians sent logan allen down cause he pretty much sucks, he makes 3 starts in triple a where his k per 9 is actually lower and he continued to walk damn near 4 per 9! so i'm assuming he being brought back up more out of necessity than his performance earning him a spot? snakes one the better hitting team vs lhp, they just made Skenes work harder than i've pretty much seen anyone do. the only question i have is snakes ff tt ov 2.5 or snakes ff -.5 better? think allen has to be a fade here, the price right and think the team he facing a tough ask for him.
 
this seals the deal for over in kc for me. look at singer platoon splits and look how many left handed hitters sox have in their lineup!
 
2daBank said:
not the greatest card in the world but i'm sure i'll find a few things.

really odd start time in stl, gonna be hot as balls on that field! i hate capping mets games but i also have a real hard time thinking this a even game? i don't love Manea but he better than pallante, mets lineup better than cards. maybe the travel? i dunno, seems cheap to play better team w better starter.
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Yeah crappy slate. I see a potential for a lot of runs scored tonight in most games...I am big on the mets today with the over, but bigger on Arizona, Giants-1 (and over), mets (and over), Phillies (+over), Houston (+over), then Zona/Clev over--another good solid overs ump--Charlie Ramos who is 13-10 over this year on 10 runs, 63% strikes and a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. Helping the over, this game features 2 Top 11 offenses, with Dbacks at 5.13 runs per game ranking 2nd and guards at 4.7 ranking 11th, but goes up to 4.88 at home, while Zona still avgs 5 runs away from home and have scored 5 or more in 7 of their last 8, scoring 9 or more 3 times, while guardians scored 5 or more in 5 of their last 6. The over is 13-5 for Clev, and 7-1 last 8 games for zona. I pounded the over more when I saw Ramos was working. Also hit Oakland-1, Mets Over, Marlins F5 (Reds starter is 0-4-1 F5) and 0-3, 8.2 ERA last 5, and royals, cubs (and over). Also hit a few team total overs small with cubs being big-cubs, zona, oakland and giants
 
2daBank said:
this seals the deal for over in kc for me. look at singer platoon splits and look how many left handed hitters sox have in their lineup!
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I am on the fence with the over, i have it right about the total at 10 (even for KC, this is steep) but am waiting on umpire info before i hit it. If estabrook is in, forget it, if my boy Andy Fletcher is working, i'm banging it like Ike Banged Tina:D:D:D

Good news for the over--a 10 mph wind is blowing to left....
 
PirateAlew said:
I am on the fence with the over, i have it right about the total at 10 (even for KC, this is steep) but am waiting on umpire info before i hit it. If estabrook is in, forget it, if my boy Andy Fletcher is working, i'm banging it like Ike Banged Tina:D:D:D

Good news for the over--a 10 mph wind is blowing to left....
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I believe weather and splits are much more important than the ump in KC tonight. Ball flies in this stuff.
 
KJ said:
I believe weather and splits are much more important than the ump in KC tonight. Ball flies in this stuff.
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True it does, especially with a humid air. I just noticed it's only 20% humidity in KC tonight, that is crazy. It's 90% here in VA today and usually well over 50% most of the summer in KC....I'd expect to see 20% in arizona or nevada tops....guess the humidor can do the job tonight :D
 
PirateAlew said:
True it does, especially with a humid air. I just noticed it's only 20% humidity in KC tonight, that is crazy. It's 90% here in VA today and usually well over 50% most of the summer in KC....I'd expect to see 20% in arizona or nevada tops....guess the humidor can do the job tonight :D
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I just looked and it is pretty low right now, showing 32%, but it is showing mid-40s at first pitch and low 50s for most of the game. Should be ripe for some hard hit balls.
 
so the price did drop for the Festa kid k prop, my card looks something like this.

Festa ov 4.5 k's -140
twins ff tt ov 1.5 -160 (think juice worth squeeze here, wind or not if hendricks beats me so be it!).
snakes ff tt ov 2.5 +110
bos/kc ov 10
 
Looks like Scott Barry is the ump in KC....he's ok, 9 runs per game at least but 6-8 over. has a good SO/BB ratio at 2.33 and low 63% strike call. I went ahead and hit the over 9.5
 
Decided to play NRFI with Phillies/Dodgers. Both teams in the upper portion of YRFI but both pitchers starting tonight have been at least 17 out of 22 for not allowing a run. Will take my chances at -135.
 
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2daBank said:
so the price did drop for the Festa kid k prop, my card looks something like this.

Festa ov 4.5 k's -140
twins ff tt ov 1.5 -160 (think juice worth squeeze here, wind or not if hendricks beats me so be it!).
snakes ff tt ov 2.5 +110
bos/kc ov 10
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Will be following. Thxs Bank
 
TheDodgers said:
Will be following. Thxs Bank
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just be easy i havnt been running that great lately. my k props been pretty solid but overall been kinda blah last 2 weeks, i was smoking till my car broke down, then during the time i didn't have car so only got to play bout half the time, get car, she gets out of hospital so i can bet whenever and of course i cool off. lol. preseason starts this week tho so hopefully that goes as well as normal, typically i'm better at preseason than reg season nfl! the only bad part i never feel as confident so i bet less than i should!
 
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