Monday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Sep 12 Mon 2022

12:10 PM
915	Texas Rangers - Game #1G. Otto -R	+1½ -180	+118	O 7 -115
916	Miami Marlins - Game #1T. Rogers -L	-1½ +160	-128	U 7 -105

05:10 PM
909	Los Angeles AngelsR. Detmers -L	+1½ -170	+120	O 8½ +100
910	Cleveland GuardiansK. Pilkington -L	-1½ +150	-130	U 8½ -120

05:40 PM
901	Pittsburgh PiratesB. Wilson -R	+1½ -160	+120	O 9½ -110
902	Cincinnati RedsM. Minor -L	-1½ +140	-130	U 9½ -110

05:40 PM
911	Houston AstrosF. Valdez -L	-1½ -115	-195	O 7½ +105
912	Detroit TigersE. Rodriguez -L	+1½ -105	+179	U 7½ -125

06:10 PM
903	Chicago CubsJ. Assad -R	+1½ +110	+241	O 8 -110
904	New York MetsC. Bassitt -R	-1½ -130	-270	U 8 -110

08:40 PM
905	Los Angeles DodgersT. Anderson -L	-1½ -135	-220	O 9 +100
906	Arizona DiamondbacksR. Nelson -R	+1½ +115	+200	U 9 -120

08:45 PM
907	Atlanta BravesS. Strider -R	-1½ -105	-171	O 7½ -110
908	San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R	+1½ -115	+157	U 7½ -110

 

[2daBank]

Dare we play snakes Ff against the mighty dodgers? This Nelson kid has some pretty good stuff and he dominated pads his 1st time out, not sure dominating the pads equals ready to handle the dodgers lineup?

Anderson did something this year thst kinda disproves my theory about pitchers who struggle at chase tend to always struggle there. Up until this year it would have been very easy to say he falls into the category of pitchers who don’t have a great feel for their pitches here, then he comes in this year and tosses 6 shutout innings. Of course anderson has been a completely different pitcher this year so the start at chase just mirrors his newfound dominance everywhere!! If you believe xfip he isn’t improved as much the surface stats say, his era this season a good 1.5 to 1.8 runs a game lower than his previous career best while his xfip is only about half a run better (it actually higher than a few his earliest years!). I dunno where I fall on this, I believe it foolish to take the analytics as the be all end all because I don’t believe knowing how to pitch is “luck” as the metrics often dismiss pitching to contact as. That said since they do grade him the same every year I think it also fair to say his massively improved era is a bit unsustainable to that extent anyways. I’d say he has been pretty fortunate in not facing a lot of great lineups this season, his hr/fb rate appears unsustainable and chase a place that could hurt that. Basically if he gonna have a bad day I think this as likely a start as any.

I think getting +.5 +115 makes this worth a shot, snakes have a decent chance to plate a few runs off anderson or Nelson could dominate once again as these kids nobody has seen yet can be tough and dodgers not above piling up some strike outs, they are top 5 in k’s the last month, he wasn’t a super high walk guy in minors and didn’t walk any in his 1st start, if he can avoid having to see dodgers hitters a 3rd time till after the 5th just maybe they won’t get a bead on him. Of course it would be a mistake not to worry this being Nelson 1st start at chase so it possible he finds he doesn’t like pitching here. Couple ways we could attack this game but I think this the best value option.

 

[2daBank]

Since strider became a starter giants one of only 3 teams in his 18 starts to score more than 2 runs off him., strangely enough he didn’t fan a lot in that game either despite San Fran being a pretty high swing and miss team. Id still love to see his k prop get bet down, it 7.5 now w plus money on the over so it possible, I havnt been as good predicting where these things will move lately so guess we have to wait and see..

 

[2daBank]

Think this about as good a time to back halo’s as there been in awhile. Starting pitcher edge plus lefty v lefty favors them, guardians off the sweep of twins to give themselves some breathing room in the central. Getting plus here is def the right side imo.

 

[2daBank]

I’m getting sleepy, no real feel for the tex/Mia double dip, rogers drives me fuvking crazy so rather not get involved. Few decent k props up and still only a handful out as of yet. I’ll have card up sometime in morning.

 

[2daBank]

Well fuck, cobb k prop was 4.5 which was basically a lock to go over, apparently I wasn’t the only one who noticed it and the other ppl who did live in a state where they could bet him overnight!! Sucks waking up and seeing the number gone, 5.5 is way closer to a coin flip as can’t be real confident he goes deep vs Braves. He could fan 6 by the 4th inning but felt a lot better needing 5.

Doesn’t look like strider going right direction either, I’d say him needing 8 is prob worth the gamble more than cobb needing 6, they both good numbers it just the upside with strider is double digits. Prob better to pass on both but I don’t want to! We see how many other plays there are before coming back to this.

 

[2daBank]

It’s painful fish offense is so bad that over 1.5 isn’t automatic against a scrub like Otto.

Rogers been a real pain in my ass all year, 3 walks in his last 4 games about as good a stretch he has had all year, not walking guys is big for him but what I find the problem he has is when he not walking guys it means he usually pitching more into the middle the plate. Sure enough 2 bombs last game and 4 in last 3, the 3 prior games no bombs but he was walking 2-3-4 guys a start! So just cause the walks down doesn’t mean his control better. I’d rather a guy challenge hitters than walk them, especially if they have good stuff but fact remains one way or the other he prob gonna give up a few runs to a rangers offense who top 10 in the league against lhp. I think best play in gm1 is rangers Ff tt ov 1.5 but maybe we should wait and make sure we get their best lineup in gm1 a DH?

 

[2daBank]

I guess jays look appealing with a kid pitching for tampa who doesn’t appear to be one their better prospects yet jays not laying a big number? I dunno, jays have been pretty hot this month but if you ask me which one of these teams I trust in a pennant race my answer gonna be tampa every time. I’ve long since lost my affection for berrios, I was nice to him for too long, I just don’t think his mental makeup is very good. Tampa being dogs gets us that 1.5 Ff total I love to attack, they have a pretty good history of hitting berrios, and just look at his starts, he has given up at least 2 in 20 of his 27 starts! These teams are neck and neck and still chasing yanks, I’ll trust rays to plate 2 runs vs berrios and not worry bout what goes on between their pitcher and jays bats.

 

[2daBank]

Dunno what to do w bassit? They just came out w his k number at 5.5 vs scrubbies and my initial reaction was over please, even fangraphs projects him for 7!! I’m not so sure tho, he a terrible pain in the ass as he has a lot of games he is way more a pitch to contact guy than strikeout guy. I do like picking on cubs w pitcher k props but they have actually been trending away from fanning as much they were a month ago. I’m just not sure 5.5 is as bad a number fsngraohs thinks? He could fan 7, he prob will pitch 6+ innings, he could also go 7+ and only fan 3!

 

[2daBank]

So here the card:

Tex Ff tt ov 1.5 (gm1)
Tampa Ff tt ov 1.5
Laa Ff ml
Snakes Ff +.5
Nelson ov 4.5 k’s
Strider ov 7.5 k’s

 

[2daBank]

What the flying fuck has gotten into both these pitchers? I shoulda stuck w my 1st thought of staying away from this one. Damn. I dunno how many times earlier in year I bet this guy k prop and would be preying he didn’t get yanked every inning till he got there! I don’t recall him having any start like this with almost no baserunners.

 

[askias]

Rogers headed for career high in k’s.

 

[2daBank]

Rogers headed for career high in k’s.

I’ve played him so many times, I’ve cashed some but it was never close to this, I don’t think it was ever easy cause he was always putting guys all over the bases. I’m shocked he got thru 5 innings and rangers havnt flipped the lineup 2nd time yet! Mfer has never been this good, and rangers have a good ops vs lefties!

 

[2daBank]

I havnt been watching, I’m super curious if he really been this good or rangers are still asleep? Like is he really making good pitches on the edges, not in middle the zone where he usually lives if he throwing strikes! Or they swinging at bad pitches?

 

[2daBank]

Otto balling too, I thought the 7 total in this game was nuts for real, with these 2 guys? I don’t even care how suspect either offenses been, I don’t think these 2 could do this again against good hitting college teams!

 

[2daBank]

Rogers pitch count is even good! Usually he has this many pitches by end of 2nd inning! Lol

 

[askias]

Been listening in the car on satellite radio, so can’t see how he’s been looking, but certainly didn’t sound like he was having too much trouble. Only given up 2 hits to Texas I think.

 

[2daBank]

Been listening in the car on satellite radio, so can’t see how he’s been looking, but certainly didn’t sound like he was having too much trouble. Only given up 2 hits to Texas I think.

Yea I dunno, he was obviously really good, I’ll just have to look at pitch chart sometime and see if it was him actually hitting spots or rangers sucking? The fact they gave those 2 pitchers that crazy low total shoulda been a tell I guess! Whatever, moving on.

 

[Marsski]

Reds have day/night tomorrow and no one to start. Called up Raynel Espinal who they just signed to a minor league deal.

 

[2daBank]

Man. Not my best day but the 2 k props come in and we hit the snakes, pushed laa, and lost the 2 team totals (can’t remember last time I lost 2 of those in a day). Anyways if that gonna be our bad days I’ll take it!!!

How bout that Nelson kid?

 

[2daBank]

Damn, don’t matter to our bet but snakes pull the kid after the 6th around 82 pitches and pen proceeds to get shelled right away. Guess snakes have longer term goals than caring bout winning tonight, looks like they might have something w Nelson kid!