I can’t believe I’m saying this but I like the yanks tonight! Obviously I’m not laying -200 or whatever but I’m good with Ff -.5 or -1.5 for game both around -120ish. When I wrote down my initial leans last night I actually had laa either Ff ml or Ff tt ov1.5 but think that was wrong. My perception was that montas has sucked since coming to Ny, and while he has had his struggles I believe there some pretty good explanations for them and it reasonable to believe he is trending back to being the guy everyone thought. There reason to say if that true and he closer to his normal self this price I say is cheap actually cheap as it could be yanks -300 if we go off the normal crazy lines books hang for good teams w ace vs bottom feeders!!
Since montas pitched in the Al west his whole career we have a pretty good idea of how he does vs halo‘s and it nothing short of fantastic! Dare I say a big part of him being so desirable (other than the stuff) is how crazy pitching against laa helped his numbers!! Look for yourself im not gonna flip back and forth to recite them but he sporting a lifetime ops allowed around .500! His era low 2s but if we talking at angel stadium it barely over 1 in 6 starts! He hasn’t allowed a earned run in his last 3 trips to this park!
So let’s assume we have squashed the montas problem/concern. There still the issue of yanks bats that have mustered 6 runs the last 3 games in oak and facing a pitcher in Jose Suarez who been really good lately. That not as concrete a problem to solve cause yanks been awful! I would assume w few guys back they will start swinging bats better sooner than later but more importantly I think I can argue Suarez numbers are incredibly fugazi! Just look at his start by start this year, sure when he plays the crappy lineup or Seattle (who not exactly world beaters) he does really well, and since he has seen a ton of them lately he looks like a good pitcher. Go back and look at every start he has made against solid offenses that handle lhp tho! Not one of them is very good! They were early in the season so you could make the case he has improved, that is certainly fair, he is young and some guys just get better as season goes despite their age. The thing for me is I feel like I have seen enough of him over the last few years to not totally buy that! I think if yanks gonna get things right this a perfect pitcher to do it against and a perfect time to try them since on the surface most everything looks bad to the point I certainly leaned halo’s at the price 1st glance.
That was a lot to say to pumped up a -200 fav but crazy as it sounds with all them on the board I think this one is the best! We also have a situation I like where halo’s been on east coast for several series while yanks just played in Oakland over the weekend so while it says home game for laa yanks are actually in the better spot tonight imo.
Ps: I also like montas k prop ov 5.5 but it is juicy, I still think it worth a play so do with it as you will! Im off to casino now As I feel really good about my card! I’ll post it all after all my play in!!
