MLB Offseason Thread

too inconsistent for me, but when he's on, he's on

better 8th inning guy and it cost tampa quite a few games this year as well as LAA in the past. I have not mentioned one word about money and how much to spend, that's all relative to the market you're in and the spending allowance of the ownership group. but to just think you can get by with a substandard closer means you probably won't be frequenting the postseason very often, and when you do, well you get what you pay for.
 
I'm not arguing relievers aren't specialists. Most starters have a few pitches and are more suited to see the same hitters a few times in one game. Most relievers don't. They excel at getting RH or LH out, or they excel at throwing 100 to all hitters for 5 minutes. Or they suck, like Chris Perez, because they're not fooling anyone. The greatest closer ever had one pitch.

I am arguing that pretty much all the time, if you flipped your 7th inning guy for your 9th inning guy, you're going to have the same season, give or take a couple. Not enough of a difference to overpay Joe Nathan.
 
KJ your argument is basically saying you don't believe in Math

paying a closer that much money makes no sense, paying any reliever that much makes no sense

any bust starter can be a live arm in a bull pen
 
and I would disagree having watched enough of those 7th inning guys somehow not be as effective in the 9th inning

granted, there are very few effective closers out there in the first place, but enough that you should target one if you want to be a championship team
 
guaranteeed said:
KJ your argument is basically saying you don't believe in Math
Click to expand...

stats tell a story of the past, I'm not as big on them as most when predicting the future. the game evolves, the closer's role certainly has over the last bunch of years

and I don't know how much is too much, it depends on your team
 
kjohnson109 said:
I could care less about "saves" and more about blown saves. far too many guys, in any sport, aren't equipped in the head to close out games. don't you think it's odd that some guys can thrive in 7th or 8th inning roles but for some reason can't quite locate those same pitches when put into the 9th inning role?

the closer is no less a role than the starter
Click to expand...

There's also the argument that "closers" SHOULD be used in the 7th or 8th inning...or whenever the game is actually on the line. Not just in the 9th inning, which is the common practice for some reason. So you do agree that using someone in the 9th inning is pointless, if they can do the job in the 7th or 8th inning?
 
orangemonk said:
Yeah I would be VERY surprised if this wasn't the case. Defense goes from the worst in MLB at the start of last year to average or maybe even slightly above this year.
Click to expand...

dont think so

Castellanos wasn't great at 3rd before he switched to OF, most scouts said he still needed work

Kinsler has been degrading last few years

Miggy won't be a gong show like he was at 3rd but he will be below average

Iglesias is the diamond in the rough but not enough to make up for the other 3
 
kjohnson109 said:
stats tell a story of the past, I'm not as big on them as most when predicting the future. the game evolves, the closer's role certainly has over the last bunch of years

and I don't know how much is too much, it depends on your team
Click to expand...

Then how do you handicap games kj? You don't use stats, and use those stats to "predict" the future?
 
Lareux said:
There's also the argument that "closers" SHOULD be used in the 7th or 8th inning...or whenever the game is actually on the line. Not just in the 9th inning, which is the common practice for some reason. So you do agree that using someone in the 9th inning is pointless, if they can do the job in the 7th or 8th inning?
Click to expand...

of course, but it's a big if. how consistently could they do it, how frequently, etc..it hasn't been that long since they actually pitched more than the ninth inning, and why it's hard for me to put much merit in the stats when the game has changed so much, so quickly
 
Lareux said:
There's also the argument that "closers" SHOULD be used in the 7th or 8th inning...or whenever the game is actually on the line. Not just in the 9th inning, which is the common practice for some reason. So you do agree that using someone in the 9th inning is pointless, if they can do the job in the 7th or 8th inning?
Click to expand...

Yes. That's my argument. It's done at all other levels of baseball.
 
kjohnson109 said:
of course, but it's a big if. how consistently could they do it, how frequently, etc..it hasn't been that long since they actually pitched more than the ninth inning, and why it's hard for me to put much merit in the stats when the game has changed so much, so quickly
Click to expand...

But it really hasn't changed that much. As evidenced by the chart I posted a few posts up. Here it is again...

MLB W-L When Leading

[TABLE="class: cms_table_alt-rows"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]Year[/TH]
[TH]After Seven Innings[/TH]
[TH]After Eight Innings[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]2013 (entering Thursday)[/TD]
[TD].897[/TD]
[TD].945[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD].917[/TD]
[TD].955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]2005[/TD]
[TD].904[/TD]
[TD].955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]2000[/TD]
[TD].900[/TD]
[TD].950[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1995[/TD]
[TD].898[/TD]
[TD].947[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1990[/TD]
[TD].914[/TD]
[TD].955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1985[/TD]
[TD].906[/TD]
[TD].948[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1980[/TD]
[TD].897[/TD]
[TD].946[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1975[/TD]
[TD].903[/TD]
[TD].949[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1970[/TD]
[TD].895[/TD]
[TD].944[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1965[/TD]
[TD].901[/TD]
[TD].950[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]1960[/TD]
[TD].899[/TD]
[TD].947[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
kjohnson109 said:
of course, but it's a big if. how consistently could they do it, how frequently, etc..it hasn't been that long since they actually pitched more than the ninth inning, and why it's hard for me to put much merit in the stats when the game has changed so much, so quickly
Click to expand...

It also hasn't been that long that closers existed at all.
 
kjohnson109 said:
stats tell a story of the past, I'm not as big on them as most when predicting the future. the game evolves, the closer's role certainly has over the last bunch of years

and I don't know how much is too much, it depends on your team
Click to expand...

See this game hasn't evolved much, and that's what's cool about it. We've had the dead ball, and the raised mound, and the steroids, and that has fucked with the stats, but you can't totally fuck with the rules like football. So the game is pretty much the same. Relief pitching hasn't evolved. MLB just decided to recognize saves as a stat, and the salary of the successful closer evolved (inflated) in response to that. Lucky guys.
 
Lareux said:
Then how do you handicap games kj? You don't use stats, and use those stats to "predict" the future?
Click to expand...

somewhat, but I typically don't do much in baseball until I can actually see current form, more into fading injured guys or who aren't locating pitches

I don't spend much time with baseball unless I'm watching a lot of games, which is hit or miss
 
kjohnson109 said:
too inconsistent for me, but when he's on, he's on

better 8th inning guy and it cost tampa quite a few games this year as well as LAA in the past. I have not mentioned one word about money and how much to spend, that's all relative to the market you're in and the spending allowance of the ownership group. but to just think you can get by with a substandard closer means you probably won't be frequenting the postseason very often, and when you do, well you get what you pay for.
Click to expand...
Would like to hear your thoughts on my last 3 teams to win the work series finished with a diff closer than they started with post
 
kjohnson109 said:
somewhat, but I typically don't do much in baseball until I can actually see current form, more into fading injured guys or who aren't locating pitches

I don't spend much time with baseball unless I'm watching a lot of games, which is hit or miss
Click to expand...

Baseball has nothing to do with my question (and I was going to even put that in there, because I knew you'd say precisely this...stupid me). You said you're not big on stats to predict the future. How do you handicap any sport then? With stats...of course.
 
Lareux said:
Baseball has nothing to do with my question (and I was going to even put that in there, because I knew you'd say precisely this...stupid me). You said you're not big on stats to predict the future. How do you handicap any sport then? With stats...of course.
Click to expand...

current form much more than stats
 
guaranteeed said:
dont think so

Castellanos wasn't great at 3rd before he switched to OF, most scouts said he still needed work

Kinsler has been degrading last few years

Miggy won't be a gong show like he was at 3rd but he will be below average

Iglesias is the diamond in the rough but not enough to make up for the other 3
Click to expand...
Kinsler grades out anywhere between slightly below average to well above average based on what stats you wanna use.
 
Lareux said:
The "current form" is another word for stats kj. You're using how they performed in games (stats) to predict the future outcomes.
Click to expand...

no "I" don't look much at stats at all, I watch, observe, and draw an opinion as to what will happen next

and hopefully it's correct at a reasonable pace, if I'm not watching games, I'm either going to tail or not wager at all
 
kjohnson109 said:
no "I" don't look much at stats at all, I watch, observe, and draw an opinion as to what will happen next
Click to expand...

So any game you handicap and bet on, you've watched those teams most recent games to gauge how they are playing? That's an awful lot of watching you're doing...or very, very few bets you're making.
 
kjohnson109 said:
no "I" don't look much at stats at all, I watch, observe, and draw an opinion as to what will happen next

and hopefully it's correct at a reasonable pace, if I'm not watching games, I'm either going to tail or not wager at all
Click to expand...

You added the 2nd sentence after I replied. Makes a little more sense now. I still find it hard to believe you don't use stats, or even "believe" in them, but it is what it is.

:shake:
 
Lareux said:
You added the 2nd sentence after I replied. Makes a little more sense now. I still find it hard to believe you don't use stats, or even "believe" in them, but it is what it is.

:shake:
Click to expand...

I didn't say I don't believe in them, hell I was an analyst for an airline over a decade ago for a couple years, but the stats didn't tell the whole story, you had to be keen to what was changing
 
kjohnson109 said:
I didn't say I don't believe in them, hell I was an analyst for an airline over a decade ago for a couple years, but the stats didn't tell the whole story, you had to be keen to what was changing
Click to expand...

In this case, you should be keen as to what is changing in baseball....that the closer role is vastly overrated and ridiculously over-paid.
 
kj, normally I'd be in your corner here just for fun. But I hate closers. One-trick ponies standing on the shoulders of giants.
 
tipyerbartender said:
kj, normally I'd be in your corner here just for fun. But I hate closers. One-trick ponies standing on the shoulders of giants.
Click to expand...

I hate them too, just looking at it realistically from the business side and by god if we all could have had a mariano, a brian wilson before injury, a lockdown closer, I think we'd be happy...and no, I never debated the price because I'm sure it is overinflated, but if you have a lockdown guy, how much is he worth to you as a GM in this environment. I know your takes, I've got mine, and unfortunately we are neither GMs nor do we know the budget with which we're working.
 
i hate closers too, hell we all do if we bet on games and have had the old Joe Table continually blow $$ right out of our hands, we are probably all a little jaded from that for no other reason we are just bettors.

but the one point, and there have been many good points to answer is, who cares how much you pay for a closer if you really need one and your owner is willing to spend big $$ each year to put you over the top?

i dont know what Mr. I has as his budget, but if i were him and i was saying i want to win one before i died, i would make damn sure i paid someone at least in the top 10 consistently every year to close out my games.

for a team that normally doesnt compete, lets say seattle, of course i would not waste my $$ as an owner on a closer, it wont mean much and he probably wont be saving big games in the playoffs.

and kj has the best point of all to me, its not how many games you save, but how many you blow. the cardinals are a poor example with mujica, not because mujica doesnt suck, but because they have a plethora of live arms in their pen and are a pitching factory. the tigers dont have that luxury in their pen. benoit is not a closer and doesnt even like doing it, rondon is too raw still. you cant go into the season with those two as your only options again, when they, with a real quality closer like nathan would form a solid if not very good pen for the final 3 innings. hell, valverde saved 50 games 2 years ago then imploded in the playoffs.

chris perez sucks, everyone knows this and even shitty closers will get a bunch of saves just by being a victim of circumstance. but joe nathan doesnt suck, and while balfour had a very good year, he has not shown years of consistency like nathans, kimbrel, mariano (i know bad example).

if i would spend (i wouldnt but Mr. I did) spend 200 mill on an overweight 1b, i would pony up 2 years and say 20-25 mill for a joe nathan to take care of that glaring weakness.

i would agree that teams that are not a piece or two away from winning it should never spend that much like phils did for papelbon or even a team like nats for soriano when they had live arms already in the pen. but again, no clue on what their team budget is.
 
i sure as hell wouldnt spend 85 mill on an older beat up catcher, but hey thats me, and if i had the yankee budget to work with, well perhaps i would.
 
Weekend Recap:

St.Louis signs Jhonny Peralta to a 4 year $52M - David Aardsma had a great tweet: "Apparently getting suspended for PED's means you get a raise. What's stopping anyone from doing it?

Deal in place for Dan Haren and the dodgers

Skanks sign McCann 5 year $85M

and in case I didn't see it - David Freese and Fernando Salas for Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk
 
Did I hear over the weekend the Angels gave Joe Smith a 15-million-dollar deal, three years? Smith is reliable, but seems kind of steep. Wonder if closing is in the discussion.
 
Reds confirm Skip Schumaker signs 2 year 5 mill deal:cigarguy: not bad for a 33 year old utility man, do work Skip!
 
Tigers trade Fister for Lombardozzi, and pitchers Ian Krol and Robbie Ray.

This is a deal I LOVE, lefty arms finally and more lineup flexibility with a guy who can run and play defense.
 
anytime you can trade a 200 ip sub 3 ERA ground ball SP for a guy who could be a lefty out of the pen, it's a move you have to make

Tigs are throwing 2014
 
I can't believe the Tigers couldn't get more total value than this for Fister, who is easily a top 25-30 overall starter in the game; they may have traded more to fill needs than to maximize their return. Krol flourished after a shift to the bullpen, going from 86-89 mph as a starter to 92-95 in relief, with an above-average changeup and fringy curveball; he's underutilized in a lefty specialist role but I like him as a potential seventh- or eighth-inning guy given more time to adjust to short relief.

Lombardozzi is a backup second baseman, lacking the stick to play there every day, and has played just 22 games in pro ball at shortstop, meaning it's unclear whether he can even be a utility infielder in the era of the four-man bench.

Ray is the prospect, a potential back-end starter who shows four pitches but has nothing plus, although there's some upside here if the Tigers can get him to lengthen his stride. His sharpest pitch is his spike curveball, but like most pitches of that type it usually ends up out of the zone, and his changeup is fringy enough that he's had trouble finishing off right-handed hitters. He's a project, a guy with some value but who could use some mechanical adjustments.

Law
 
Tigers are removing their best and only pitcher in the pen to put into the rotation. They are hoping smyly can replicate what fister did (he can't). They're hoping Krol can replicate what smyly did (he can't). they traded fister for a downgrade at 2 positions, a backup 2b with a sub .300 OBP over 750 PAs and a project back end starter. awesome.
 
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