ML Dogs Week 9 Edition

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Can you believe we are about to start WEEK 9!

Where the hell has this season gone??? Before you know it we will be talking about Bowl Gms.

Well Dog are continuing to hit. Who do we like this week?

Thanks to ALL you contribute to this thread, even if you don't post, pop in a grab you a few Winners.
If you like someone this week feel free to post it!

We are all here to help each other out,

Let's Beat the Bookie together!

who ya got!
 
USF might deserve a look.

I like Navy, Duke and FSU. Nevada might have a hard time getting up for this game considering. UNLV is getting closer and closer - Fremont Cannon! And maybe Cornell.
 
s--k said:
USF might deserve a look.

I like Navy, Duke and FSU. Nevada might have a hard time getting up for this game considering. UNLV is getting closer and closer - Fremont Cannon! And maybe Cornell.
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I like Navy and lean to Duke, but Clemson is going to cover this week.

Penn State, Miami, and Tulane are other possible dog winners.
 
M.W. said:
Clemson is going to cover this week.
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Was thinking of the deflated season let down. A team and players that have known nothing but playing for league and national championships now sits at 4-3. If or how well FSU can run on them should determine it. Phommachanh going to be QB this week?
 
M.W. said:
Penn State.
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I never shy away from thinking (and hoping) the big dogs can lose, this one sure is bold! While I like the situational aspects of it, I'm concerned about Clifford's health and effectiveness. Maybe we'll get some insight into that this week.
 
s--k said:
Was thinking of the deflated season let down. A team and players that have known nothing but playing for league and national championships now sits at 4-3. If or how well FSU can run on them should determine it. Phommachanh going to be QB this week?
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The season was deflated long ago. This loss doesn’t change anything for the players, but we finally saw the coaches react to the facts on the ground. Perhaps you’re right about “deflation” in regard to the coaches, but that would be a good thing. However, I’m surprised by how high the line is this week.
 
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M.W. said:
The season was deflated long ago. This loss doesn’t change anything. However, I’m surprised by how high the line is.
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That is true they were deflated long ago. However, now with 2 ACC losses the belief of winning the division and league looks dim compared to when they were sitting at 1 loss. Not controlling their destiny, but still in the hunt depending what happened among the other teams. Not so much now.
 
I understand what you’re saying, but I don’t think it applies here. It’s a wakeup call for the coaches, which is a good thing.
 
The four ML pickers I list every week on the ESPN Handicapper Picks thread are doing better than any of the other public pickers I list.

Three of them are .500 or better and the other is 9-15. I don't know a way to calculate how far they are ahead without going back and looking at every game they've picked, but they are all in the black
 
s--k said:
USF might deserve a look.

I like Navy, Duke and FSU. Nevada might have a hard time getting up for this game considering. UNLV is getting closer and closer - Fremont Cannon! And maybe Cornell.
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already wrote bout usf in the discussion thread, totally agree, with the points for sure and while i have a soft spot for ecu i think usf live here. couldnt believe when i saw the line, ecu been a great team for me to back as a dog for some time but i dunno where they came up with that number? they gotta be counting usf early season numbers way too much for that, as you pointed out a few weeks back they are a improving team, true they started from a really bad place but they have played hard and made strides, id imagine this not a familiar roll for ecu.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Iowa
W Virginia
Cal
SMU
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i cant believe they made wiscy favs in this game,, i had no interest in the spot for purdue last week so i got it but this makes no sense. sure iowa was never their rank and yes they woulda lost 2 in a row if clifford didnt get hurt but both these teams could pass the ball,, how is wiscy scoring? i dont believe they will be able to run on iowa any more than iowa will on them., Mertz throwing at that defense? that a disaster waiting to happen, should look exactly like all the games iowa built their resume with. ill take petres throwing on wiscy vs mertz trying to throw on iowa all day every day..
 
2daBank said:
already wrote bout usf in the discussion thread, totally agree, with the points for sure and while i have a soft spot for ecu i think usf live here. couldnt believe when i saw the line, ecu been a great team for me to back as a dog for some time but i dunno where they came up with that number? they gotta be counting usf early season numbers way too much for that, as you pointed out a few weeks back they are a improving team, true they started from a really bad place but they have played hard and made strides, id imagine this not a familiar roll for ecu.
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ECU is just very hard to trust. Like you worried about UH's pass rush last week, which was a real concern, but not just because of what Houston can do, but because of how much pressure and negative plays ECU allows. And they still turn it over a ton. Thankfully for them, their D is getting turnovers this year so they are actually positive ratio, but their TOs lost ranks among the bottom 1/3 of FBS teams.

We probably all need to brush up on USF. I was not involved in the Temple game, but yes did notice their improved play beginning 2nd H at BYU, which maybe could be a fluke 2nd H after BYU was up comfortably. OK. Then they played better than final vs SMU. SMU flat off TCU Iron Skillet game? OK maybe we can explain that away too. Then they nearly beat Tulsa with D and ST TD...Tulsa outgained them pretty good, so explain that one away too? At some point they are just playing better and kind of believing in what they are doing. Nice for them they got a pay off beating Temple. I didn't watch. So now we are all expecting them to compete. Hopefully for us they will. ECU did blow Tulane out, so there is danger.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Temple
USF
WVU
Navy

Might take a flyer on Penn St. as well...
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my problem with psu is their run game been all but nonexistent,, think you need a strong rushing attack to compete with osu this year, both the Michigan games will be way more exciting imo.. as if no run game isnt bad enough from what i have heard (i didnt watch hardly any the illini game) Clifford appeared to be much less than 100%, i thought it was a really dumb move by Franklin to play him.
 
i see rain in the forecast for the usf/ecu game, i think that favors usf as they much better when they rushing the ball a lot more than passing. Think we can ignore some usf full season stats as they got skewed a bit early on when they were bad and playing teams much better than them. i think they have improved a great deal as we have gotten deeper into the season, they gave byu and tulsa all they wanted before breaking thru and getting a W over temple last week, think they can build on that momentum and make this another super close contest. SMU the only team outside the power 5 that has blown them out and ecu offense is nowhere close to smu high powered attack.. taking the +10 a much, wouldnt be surprising at all if usf pulled the upset. I love me some ecu but as a dog, being a large fav is not familiar territory for them. they barely beat a Charleston south team as 24.5 favs, the only game they been favs all year that i recall..
 
twinkie13 said:
Anyone got the stones to take Tulane ML?
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Catching Cinci off that shit performance against Navy is not ideal

I'm on -25.5 (better number out there now) but figure this is a blowout likely, but if not Tulane has a chance to win. Just hard to see a Fickel team show like shit two weeks in a row.
 
twinkie13 said:
Anyone got the stones to take Tulane ML?
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Well... I played them ML vs SMU. Not my best effort.

You just never know if Cincinnati is going to put a full 4 quarter or complete 2 half game togehter. When they do they look top shelf. When they don't they look pretty average. Problem is Tulane never even looks average. Maybe for several minutes of the 2nd Q vs Houston they played well. Other than that?
 
s--k said:
Well... I played them ML vs SMU. Not my best effort.

You just never know if Cincinnati is going to put a full 4 quarter or complete 2 half game togehter. When they do they look top shelf. When they don't they look pretty average. Problem is Tulane never even looks average. Maybe for several minutes of the 2nd Q vs Houston they played well. Other than that?
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yea, i dont see myself laying the points as cincy just doesnt do like the best power 5 teams and destroy all these teams they should.. they play uninspired way too often but i dont think being flat would matter when it comes to who wins, they can coast against all these teams if they want, not a good idea if they want any chance of making the playoffs but starting to think they dont anyways..
 
KJ said:
ULM are +27.5/+1400 v Appy St, great spot to fade Appy no doubt...it's on the to do list but haven't been in a rush
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i knew you would like the spot!! for me it more about how ul monroe has become upset darlings the last few games pulling one the biggest upsets of the year over liberty then following it up with another win as dd dogs!! before that they got troy as 23 point dogs! wish i would have figured it out sooner but at last i got them last time!! pretty amazing they have won as 32, 23, and 13 point dogs in a month stretch!!!
 
2daBank said:
yea, i dont see myself laying the points as cincy just doesnt do like the best power 5 teams and destroy all these teams they should.. they play uninspired way too often but i dont think being flat would matter when it comes to who wins, they can coast against all these teams if they want, not a good idea if they want any chance of making the playoffs but starting to think they dont anyways..
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If they go undefeated they will be in the playoff, last year set the tone for that with only loss coming by 3 against UGA in the Peach Bowl...they were shut out as an undefeated last year. Won't happen two years in a row.
 
KJ said:
If they go undefeated they will be in the playoff, last year set the tone for that with only loss coming by 3 against UGA in the Peach Bowl...they were shut out as an undefeated last year. Won't happen two years in a row.
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i hope you right but i dont think you are..
 
i believed that at beginning the year but even tho they have gotten a lot of good things go their way i dont think the committee gonna care. hoosiers continuing to look like ass is hurting them,, they gotta prey ND keeps winning, i think that the only way they have a shot is if ND wins out and cincy their only loss.. they might be in initial top 4 but if it dont happen before conf champioship week im almost positive they end up being pushed back to 5 afterwords, unless they get some more craziness. if that happens then sure, they really gonna need uga to beat bama in the sec ship and/or ohio st losing another game.. i dont think they get in over a 1 loss bama, 1 loss osu, undefeated big12, and prob not a one loss ducks, that bout only team i could see them getting in ahead of,, so they need sooners to get knocked off, bama or osu to lose again at minimum.
 
KJ said:
It's getting way ahead of ourselves because they likely will have to beat SMU twice between now and then but win at ND was huge for the resume
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only if irish wins out which im not confident gonna happen..
 
KJ said:
I think they get in over 1 loss Ohio St if due to pressure on the committee if nothing else. Doubt OU goes undefeated anyway
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oh i dont think there any chance in hell they get in ahead of osu, im not sure they get in ahead of any 1 loss big10 champ for real. not sure sooners gonna lose, that qb has changed everything, unless he gets hurt i dont like anyone to beat them, im assuming you talking bout isu?
 
2daBank said:
oh i dont think there any chance in hell they get in ahead of osu, im not sure they get in ahead of any 1 loss big10 champ for real. not sure sooners gonna lose, that qb has changed everything, unless he gets hurt i dont like anyone to beat them, im assuming you talking bout isu?
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@Baylor, ISU, @ Oklahoma St, title game

If they win all 4 of those, it's a helluva feat in basically a month regardless who's at QB
 
KJ said:
@Baylor, ISU, @ Oklahoma St, title game

If they win all 4 of those, it's a helluva feat in basically a month regardless who's at QB
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im not particularly high on any those teams but yea it probably 40-50% tops they win them all..
 
s--k said:
There is some question about the status of the USF QB McClain.

ECU won last year 44-24, but only outgained them 432-398. USF was -2 TOs.
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McClain thing sucks because it sounds like a game time decision, tough to rebound from a sprained ankle in 5 days

One to watch line movement and twitter Thursday before betting it for me
 
I had App St (unfortunately) last year vs ULM. Really poor game from App. They dominated every where but scoreboard. Think that there were several drives deep in ULM territory where they didn't score for one reason or another. Different year obviously and ULM has life. Was only 31-13 last year although my memory tells me it should've been bigger.

The UNLV and Nevada game is interesting because the last time they played in Reno there was a fight post game that resulted in several players being suspended for all or part of the bowl game or first game the following season as I recall. UNLV won in OT.
 
not sure it changes my feelings all that much if usf qb out. think they need to run the shit out the ball no matter who playing qb. they do that and 10 still be too much for ecu to cover, makes the ml less appealing.
 
UNLV could be live, have only lost by one score against everyone outside the two power 5 games, they just find ways to lose
 
KJ said:
Catching Cinci off that shit performance against Navy is not ideal

I'm on -25.5 (better number out there now) but figure this is a blowout likely, but if not Tulane has a chance to win. Just hard to see a Fickel team show like shit two weeks in a row.
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ESPN has already started the talk to get them jumped by 1 loss Power-5 teams, so you have to figure Cincy is hearing this.
 
id rather ncst would have won last week (for many reasons, lol) but i think this several points too high. said this last week bout ville, i really think their defense is better than it looks on paper, they certainly not world beaters but they have some dudes and not as bad some might think. they have played a ridiculously hard schedule for any defense, loaded with high powered offenses. we saw how much better they looked when they got to face a lessor BC offense last week, ncst better than bc but their offense not as good as many the ones ville has been up against. i would think ncst dumb ass playcaller will get back to featuring his best 2 players but there always the chance he wont, if he decides to have leary drop back 40+ times again then ville will win this game. assuming he calls a better game still like ville chances. Ville really should be undefeated in acc play, they had a very high win expectancy in the 4th qrtr of the wake and uva games, still dunno how they lost to uva as they totally dominated that game for 3.5 quarters. of course they didnt win those games and that has to count against them but i have little doubt they at least stay within the number here..

ncst on the opposite end the spectrum as they have faced mostly the weaker offenses in the acc and out of conf, so i think their defensive numbers are actually more flattering than what they really are. they will have a hell of a time stopping Cunningham. I feel like ppl been underrating ville ever since they got whipped by ol piss to start the year, not only do i think they have improved since then but they just ran into a buzz saw that night as rebs defense was out to make a statement after hearing all offseason how they were holding the team back. I really dont think ncst is a better team than Ville, if they are it marginal.
 
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