ML Dogs Week 9 Edition

M.W. said:
Penn State has wins against Wisconsin and Auburn. What is Ohio State's best win?

Do blowout wins over 3 of the B1G's five worst teams really mean Ohio State has an 85% chance of beating Penn State? Is the Clifford injury that bad?
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I honestly don’t think it matters how healthy Clifford is, not sure why beating wiscy in a game they were dominated means anything? Osu beat Minnesota who id argue every bit as good a win as wiscy this year. Ultimately you can only beat who you play, so I guess after this week osu will have a good win in your eyes!

Psu has been dominated by several teams in the trenches, wiscy pushed them around in a game psu had no business winning, even if you wanna call wiscy a good team psu then let’s Illini punish them on the ground last week. Now they gotta face what far and away the best offense they have seen, they gonna have to worry bout those osu weapons on the outside and then henderson gonna gash them on the ground.

While I think it pretty clear osu offense is fantastic I do think it more than fair to still question the Buckeyes defense. The problem here is pen st doesn’t really do the things that I’ve seen osu struggle with early on. Psu has no run game to speak of. The things that caused osu defense problems was mainly the rpo game, 1st the gophers did a ton of damage with it then ducks beat them with it. Psu just doesn’t do that tho, they basically one dimensional which I’m not sure gonna put the pressure on buckeyes d. I hope we get this kind of number with the Michigan’s against osu cause I think they can pose threats to the d I’m not sure psu can. I could maybe buy psu defense keeps them in it awhile but ultimately I think osu will score on anyone and just not sure psu can match that. Cover maybe, but win? I don’t see it.
 
It may've gone under reported, but people saying Penn State's injury to NG/DT PJ Mustipher pretty big loss especially in light of what Illinois did.

I think Penn State can generate run game this week, but to Kelsoe's point, it needs to involve Clifford quite a bit. His willingness to do that, he might feel pretty good before hitting the field and taking the hits, maybe they will give him a shot and he can play and the hits won't have the same effect on whatever injury he is dealing with.
 
s--k said:
It may've gone under reported, but people saying Penn State's injury to NG/DT PJ Mustipher pretty big loss especially in light of what Illinois did.

I think Penn State can generate run game this week, but to Kelsoe's point, it needs to involve Clifford quite a bit. His willingness to do that, he might feel pretty good before hitting the field and taking the hits, maybe they will give him a shot and he can play and the hits won't have the same effect on whatever injury he is dealing with.
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Their backs have just not been good at all. M
 
s--k said:
It may've gone under reported, but people saying Penn State's injury to NG/DT PJ Mustipher pretty big loss especially in light of what Illinois did.

I think Penn State can generate run game this week, but to Kelsoe's point, it needs to involve Clifford quite a bit. His willingness to do that, he might feel pretty good before hitting the field and taking the hits, maybe they will give him a shot and he can play and the hits won't have the same effect on whatever injury he is dealing with.
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FWIW Franklin said Clifford will be 100% for game and that he wasn't last week (in which they were limited in what he could do). OSU has played NO ONE the last few weeks - whether their defense is truly better than first of the year we'll see. I don't like what Day did to his DC so I hope Penn St. gashes them. I watched the Penn St. Iowa game and if Clifford hadn't gotten hurt, they would have scored in the 30's on Iowa - they were rolling through them like a knife through hot butter. Is the OSU defense better than Iowa? I was really shocked with what happened with Illinois but if he couldn't run that was huge (didn't see the game). Anyway OSU could blow them away but I'm hoping it gets to 21 and I'll take a shot with Penn St. I just see Penn St. getting off the mat and playing them tough. Too much pride there.
 
lvmike32 said:
FWIW Franklin said Clifford will be 100% for game and that he wasn't last week (in which they were limited in what he could do). OSU has played NO ONE the last few weeks - whether their defense is truly better than first of the year we'll see. I don't like what Day did to his DC so I hope Penn St. gashes them. I watched the Penn St. Iowa game and if Clifford hadn't gotten hurt, they would have scored in the 30's on Iowa - they were rolling through them like a knife through hot butter. Is the OSU defense better than Iowa? I was really shocked with what happened with Illinois but if he couldn't run that was huge (didn't see the game). Anyway OSU could blow them away but I'm hoping it gets to 21 and I'll take a shot with Penn St. I just see Penn St. getting off the mat and playing them tough. Too much pride there.
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we in agreement that im not convinced the osu defense is fixed either, i just dont know that psu offense really the team to test it? i think we get a much better barometer next week when they face a nebraska team who runs a lot the stuff i saw osu struggle with against minny and ducks!! Far as Clifford health goes there no chance i believe them when they say he wasnt healthy last week but now he 100%!! i believe the part about him not being healthy last week, we could all see that, i thought it was really ignorant for Franklin to even have him out there in that game!! Had they sat him last week i would feel a lot better about his health for this one, or maybe believed them when they say he now healthy cause i damn sure didnt hear anyone saying he wasnt healthy before the illini game!! Im sure he healthy enough to play but is he gonna be running around using his legs in the rpo game? im not so sure. Even if he is 100% my issue is psu RBs and oline been awful in the run game. They rank 116 in line yards, 128th in power rushing success rate, 111th in stuff rate, those are all equally terrible (there only 130 freaking teams!).. Just dont think psu presents the problems for a osu d we agree hasnt proven anything. not betting it either way but im opposite of you, i really hope osu destroys them, that way we can get some really jacked up numbers when they start facing some these teams who i do think will test the defense!!
 
lvmike32 said:
going to get real loud and dicey if Oklahoma wins out, Ohio St wins out (Penn St. Michigan, Title) and Bama/Bulldogs win out and Bama wins a close title game. That's a LOT to still happen but I think if it does Cincy could get bumped again, even with no losses - especially if they play like they did vs Navy. And if Wake wins out, they will stake a claim too. Fun, important games now starting.
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And don't get started about the debate if the Ducks win out and actually won AT Ohio State
 
2daBank said:
we in agreement that im not convinced the osu defense is fixed either, i just dont know that psu offense really the team to test it? i think we get a much better barometer next week when they face a nebraska team who runs a lot the stuff i saw osu struggle with against minny and ducks!! Far as Clifford health goes there no chance i believe them when they say he wasnt healthy last week but now he 100%!! i believe the part about him not being healthy last week, we could all see that, i thought it was really ignorant for Franklin to even have him out there in that game!! Had they sat him last week i would feel a lot better about his health for this one, or maybe believed them when they say he now healthy cause i damn sure didnt hear anyone saying he wasnt healthy before the illini game!! Im sure he healthy enough to play but is he gonna be running around using his legs in the rpo game? im not so sure. Even if he is 100% my issue is psu RBs and oline been awful in the run game. They rank 116 in line yards, 128th in power rushing success rate, 111th in stuff rate, those are all equally terrible (there only 130 freaking teams!).. Just dont think psu presents the problems for a osu d we agree hasnt proven anything. not betting it either way but im opposite of you, i really hope osu destroys them, that way we can get some really jacked up numbers when they start facing some these teams who i do think will test the defense!!
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I hear your points. Haven't bet it yet. Don't think I will unless I get to 21 which is doubtful. Does seem odd Clifford can be so much healthier 5 days later. I've made great money on OSU over the years - actually had a 20 something to 1 ticket on them to win the NC the year they beat Wisconsin like 50-0 the last week to sneak into the final 4 - and then win it all. So I love betting them. Penn St. is one of those team I always lose on, no matter if I'm on them or against them. I just know if I bet OSU, Clifford probably comes out and looks like Heisman winner. Your points will likely keep me on the sideline and look for another opportunity.
 
KJ said:
And don't get started about the debate if the Ducks win out and actually won AT Ohio State
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No shit lol. Though that was so early and if OSU runs table they will have beaten Michigan, Michigan St., Penn St. and the west winner. Think most would be able to still put them in over Oregon because Pac 12 is so disrespected. But we need that 12 team playoff sooner rather than later.
 
lvmike32 said:
I hear your points. Haven't bet it yet. Don't think I will unless I get to 21 which is doubtful. Does seem odd Clifford can be so much healthier 5 days later. I've made great money on OSU over the years - actually had a 20 something to 1 ticket on them to win the NC the year they beat Wisconsin like 50-0 the last week to sneak into the final 4 - and then win it all. So I love betting them. Penn St. is one of those team I always lose on, no matter if I'm on them or against them. I just know if I bet OSU, Clifford probably comes out and looks like Heisman winner. Your points will likely keep me on the sideline and look for another opportunity.
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please take them with a grain of salt, although im actually doing pretty well with the big10 this year in years past this been a tough conf for me. dunno why it has gotten so much better this year? dumb luck maybe? lol. or just bound to happen one year!! Far as osu goes i rarely play their games as i dont do very well with big spreads, im certainly not backing them here. From the sound of it you follow and know buckeyes better than i do!! I would hate to talk you off a winner, especially when im far from saying osu the play. im just pointing out the issues i see in case someone hasnt thought of, if ya dont think those a big deal great, pound away, if they make sense maybe tread a little lighter!! im not sure if they are important factors or not! lol.

i can see a route to psu keeping it close with their defense making some plays, i dont think Stroud has seen anything close to the blitzes psu will throw at him, no idea how he will handle that? i do know they better get home with them because those guys buckeyes have on the outside will torch 1 on 1 coverage!! im hearing a lot of folks saying they think if osu jumps out to a couple td lead that it could spiral out of control. I dont buy this narrative that psu gonna tuck tail and fold just cause the shit surrounding Franklin, that seems stupid to me!! Osu might blow them out simply cause they have the talent to do so, sure dont think psu kids gonna give up,

Really just comes down to 2 things why i cant back psu, the fact they been dog shit running the football and i dunno how healthy Clifford is.. Even if you told me Clifford was absolutely 100% id still have doubts, bout taking them, i wouldnt be pushing back as hard tho, and would def consider penn st. The fact i have no clue makes it a easy pass. Better believe ill be looking at Nebraska hopefully catching a ton of points next week!! then maybe the michigan schools after that! that when we gonna find out if this osu defense has really improved or they just look better cause the teams they playing. It that RPO game that really shredded them the 1st couple weeks of the season. it was a perfect storm as gophers came out week 1 and laid the blueprint for the Ducks and it just so happened it involved doing stuff ducks very good at!! assuming osu rolls here next week be interesting as Martinez should be able to do some the same stuff and he even more electric as a runner, just gotta hope he avoids stupid mistakes he known for,.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Tried getting a head start this weekend with USF & Navy....bummer about USF but hopefully I get lucky with the Middies tonight.
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I swear some these ppl calling plays Shouldnt have jobs. My nephews would be better play callers from playing madden w me!! Usf owning the game on the ground, still have the lead and the Jackass play caller starts calling one pass play after another, 3 fuckin picks later we not only losing but blowing the cover. They win that game easy if he just continues running the fuckinh ball!!

No 1st half for you? I usually see you playing 1st halves!
 
bones said:
Does Rice deserve to be a favorite against anyone?
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I played 'em but let's be real here, it's two very bad teams which means over should be plenty in play

Reason for me was a simple fade of the Mean Green who simply don't seem to have what it takes to stay within a score of anyone, curious the Houston weather because I do love overs when two bad teams meet up in any sport (eyes on Mizzou/Vandy over for that reason as well)
 
KJ said:
I played 'em but let's be real here, it's two very bad teams which means over should be plenty in play

Reason for me was a simple fade of the Mean Green who simply don't seem to have what it takes to stay within a score of anyone, curious the Houston weather because I do love overs when two bad teams meet up in any sport (eyes on Mizzou/Vandy over for that reason as well)
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yep
 
2daBank said:
I swear some these ppl calling plays Shouldnt have jobs. My nephews would be better play callers from playing madden w me!! Usf owning the game on the ground, still have the lead and the Jackass play caller starts calling one pass play after another, 3 fuckin picks later we not only losing but blowing the cover. They win that game easy if he just continues running the fuckinh ball!!

No 1st half for you? I usually see you playing 1st halves!
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Is that what happened? I did not watch it. Tough to hear...

Hindsight is 20/20 wish I had played 1st half...;)
 
JROCK1966 said:
Is that what happened? I did not watch it. Tough to hear...

Hindsight is 20/20 wish I had played 1st half...;)
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you missed several unfortunate things (which usually the case when a dd dog blows a game)., 2nd drive of 2nd half usf got what appeared to be a obvious safety but even after replay the refs couldnt manage to get that right and marked ball on 1 inch line!! of course ecu proceeds to drive the field but gets stopped around the 20 and misses a fg! So usf gets the ball and still has a one point lead, despite building that lead on the strength of their run game they come out and try to pass, pick 6! so now we down 5 and have ball, get back to a few runs that gets them across mid field, everything still seems fine but we get into a 3rd and 4ish. seemed to be a spot with the way the run game was going you run the ball and play it as 2 down territory (if you dont just get on 3rd dowm), but no. they once again decide to attempt a pass that was so off target nobody could pick it off! So they have to punt and send their wearing down defense back out. i forget the order after this as i was also watching the NFL game, we either get the ball back still down 5 and throw another pick or ecu scores and then we throw a pick!! lol.. rest of way defense holds to where we have chances for garbage time score but i was certain that was never coming cause their pass game so bad!! i hardly watched but did turn back to see yet another pick!! 3 of them after usf got the ball up 1 in the second half and had been controlling the game by rushing the ball!!! Just awesome work by the coaching staff!!! poor kids deserved better!
 
bones said:
Does Rice deserve to be a favorite against anyone?
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KJ said:
Guess the real difference is Rice have shown the ability to get over the finish line against bad teams and UNT haven't. Owls losses are all to good to very good teams.
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In fairness, this would be the first bad team that North Texas has played.

I think it is likely a good spot for Rice. A feel good win vs UAB to keep everyone interested and trying hard and come back home to play a team that you shouldn't have lost to last year. And North Texas has played ok in limited spots, but I would think they might be coming here a little deflated after thinking they might pull an surprising upset last week, only to lose by 2 scores due to 2nd H.
 
I have some worries about the Tulsa D tonight against Navy.

I am however feeling pretty good about Navy football in general. After the first two weeks of the year and some bad performances, this team has turned a corner nicely, but has only once got the win that their improved play on the field has provided (did beat UCF). Only trailing Cincy 13-10 HT last week and then coming back to lose only by 7 and doing really good job on D vs UC. Then they led 21-7 on SMU and was tied in the 4th Q vs what I think is a really good SMU team. Led Houston 17-7 HT and had ball late down 20-28 but lost. Those 3 teams are all pretty strong one way or the other. The Cincy D overall and the Houston D are both better than the Tulsa D and Navy was able to be in both those games.

The Memphis game is concerning so there is inconsistencies with the Mids still.

I will be MLing Navy tonight still though. While the Tulsa D worries me some, their O does not so hopefully Navy has a shot tonight. It seems like one of the more reasonable chances for an 11pt dog I think.
 
s--k said:
In fairness, this would be the first bad team that North Texas has played.

I think it is likely a good spot for Rice. A feel good win vs UAB to keep everyone interested and trying hard and come back home to play a team that you shouldn't have lost to last year. And North Texas has played ok in limited spots, but I would think they might be coming here a little deflated after thinking they might pull an surprising upset last week, only to lose by 2 scores due to 2nd H.
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Thank you
 
M.W. said:
I really don't get the love for Iowa. Iowa is the poor man's Clemson (equivalent stats against a weaker schedule). Would you expect Clemson to beat Wisconsin in Madison this week?
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Iowa is a team that loses boxscores but wins games via turnovers and hidden yardage. Wisconsin is a team that wins boxscores but loses games because of turnovers.

Wisconsin has played these type of teams and won exactly how many times last 2 years ? Indiana at home last year. Loss. @ nw last year - loss. This year penn state and michigan. loss. All teams like iowa - great d's average o's.

And then Iowa always plays well vs wisky. I think iowa historically matches good with wisconsin but doesn't purdue and penn state

At worst it feels like a tossup game where you are getting points in a low total
 
2daBank said:
id rather ncst would have won last week (for many reasons, lol) but i think this several points too high. said this last week bout ville, i really think their defense is better than it looks on paper, they certainly not world beaters but they have some dudes and not as bad some might think. they have played a ridiculously hard schedule for any defense, loaded with high powered offenses. we saw how much better they looked when they got to face a lessor BC offense last week, ncst better than bc but their offense not as good as many the ones ville has been up against. i would think ncst dumb ass playcaller will get back to featuring his best 2 players but there always the chance he wont, if he decides to have leary drop back 40+ times again then ville will win this game. assuming he calls a better game still like ville chances. Ville really should be undefeated in acc play, they had a very high win expectancy in the 4th qrtr of the wake and uva games, still dunno how they lost to uva as they totally dominated that game for 3.5 quarters. of course they didnt win those games and that has to count against them but i have little doubt they at least stay within the number here..

ncst on the opposite end the spectrum as they have faced mostly the weaker offenses in the acc and out of conf, so i think their defensive numbers are actually more flattering than what they really are. they will have a hell of a time stopping Cunningham. I feel like ppl been underrating ville ever since they got whipped by ol piss to start the year, not only do i think they have improved since then but they just ran into a buzz saw that night as rebs defense was out to make a statement after hearing all offseason how they were holding the team back. I really dont think ncst is a better team than Ville, if they are it marginal.
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ville defense looks fast and talented, and they do way better when they blitz with all that speed. But the coaches do crazy things like vs virginia. Ville 2 close losses from leading the acc. they do feel undervalued.

beat up on bc more dominantly than nc state. only reason for nc state is I think it's the best d louisville has faced in the ACC
 
EL CAPO said:
ville defense looks fast and talented, and they do way better when they blitz with all that speed. But the coaches do crazy things like vs virginia. Ville 2 close losses from leading the acc. they do feel undervalued.

beat up on bc more dominantly than nc state. only reason for nc state is I think it's the best d louisville has faced in the ACC
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yea i agree with all that. i could forgive the wake loss but how they lost the uva game and some the stupid ass decisions satterfield made drove me nuts!! why the fuck kick a fg to go up 6 when we all knew uva would go down field and score a last second td? leave your offense out there and finish the damn game vs that shitty ass d!!

far as ncst being the best d are we sure they better than BC defense? i know they beat bc but bc offense is crap! as sk pointed out ncst lb's are banged up which hurt them last week, i think ville offense is better than canes who just scored 30 on them. Honestly i just dont know how good ncst defense is? their schedule is littered with god awful offenses so those numbers are somewhat fraudulent imo..
 
2daBank said:
yea i agree with all that. i could forgive the wake loss but how they lost the uva game and some the stupid ass decisions satterfield made drove me nuts!! why the fuck kick a fg to go up 6 when we all knew uva would go down field and score a last second td? leave your offense out there and finish the damn game vs that shitty ass d!!

far as ncst being the best d are we sure they better than BC defense? i know they beat bc but bc offense is crap! as sk pointed out ncst lb's are banged up which hurt them last week, i think ville offense is better than canes who just scored 30 on them. Honestly i just dont know how good ncst defense is? their schedule is littered with god awful offenses so those numbers are somewhat fraudulent imo..
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rush defense I think nc state is best - but they haven't been tested like lville. Honestly all the ACC games i think the dog looks good - just no separation in that conference
 
EL CAPO said:
rush defense I think nc state is best - but they haven't been tested like lville. Honestly all the ACC games i think the dog looks good - just no separation in that conference
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only team id disagree with is pitt, i been banging the drum for them being the class the acc since BC qb went down.. not that i love them to cover here, just think they are in fact the best team by a decent margin..that said there are a few teams that i think could give them problems, that uva game gonna be scary for them imo. then if they play wake in the acc ship that be interesting.. both those teams should be able to turn it into a shootout in which case anything could happen, that is why i kinda like the canes/pitt under this week, i think they will make a effort to control these games to keep them from getting crazy.
 
2daBank said:
only team id disagree with is pitt, i been banging the drum for them being the class the acc since BC qb went down.. not that i love them to cover here, just think they are in fact the best team by a decent margin..that said there are a few teams that i think could give them problems, that uva game gonna be scary for them imo. then if they play wake in the acc ship that be interesting.. both those teams should be able to turn it into a shootout in which case anything could happen, that is why i kinda like the canes/pitt under this week, i think they will make a effort to control these games to keep them from getting crazy.
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A game featuring Manny Diaz and Narduzzi can only be chaotic....lol. Miami lost Bolden at safety and will have 2 freshmen starting back there. Pickett has been dialed in and the Canes secondary is by far their weakest unit. Pitts defense has been ok....but they gave up 55 to WMU and 34 to Tenn lead by Milton....Van Dyke has shown some flair and Knighton has gave them a spark....really hard for me to see both teams not getting to 28+......
 
A game featuring Manny Diaz and Narduzzi can only be chaotic....lol. Miami lost Bolden at safety and will have 2 freshmen starting back there. Pickett has been dialed in and the Canes secondary is by far their weakest unit. Pitts defense has been ok....but they gave up 55 to WMU and 34 to Tenn lead by Milton....Van Dyke has shown some flair and Knighton has gave them a spark....really hard for me to see both teams not getting to 28+......

It obvious van Dyke doing wonders for canes and he has gotten better each game. Problem for him here is he gonna be under more pressure than he ever seen in his young career. Pitt d is better than ok, they can be had on the back end but their front 7 is really good, the Vols game is when hooker came in and that when vols got most their points, not with Milton. I have no doubt canes can hit a deep shot or 2 but I also think that their only avenue to points cause I don’t think there any chance mia will be able to drive the field on them. Tigers had a few big plays there for taking, one guy dropped what woulda been a 70 yard td and dj missed one I believe. Like I said you can get behind pitt secondary cause they overly aggressive.

I don’t think canes sniff 28, 24 tops imo. I realize this could be a shootout but I also think it basically up to pitt and I think they been making a effort not to play those high variance back and forth games. They have the ability to shoot it out as Pickett can score with the best of them but they also like to maintain balance and keep the other team on the sideline with some methodical drives. Even when they struggling to run they make a huge effort to maintain balance. I think in their effort to do thst in this one they will find they can have a lot of success running the ball on the canes. Hoping their best rb who name I can’t spell clears concussion protocol, from sounds of it he will, not as sure bout Addison their best wr. They will use Pickett when needed to keep the chains moving but I suspect long drives by Pitt. In return the young kid Van Dyke will be sitting for long stretches and go 3 and out when he gets the ball. Pitt builds a lead like this and continues to step on canes throat with the run game.

The only way I see it turning into a shootout is if pitt comes out flat off the clemson win and canes take a early lead. I don’t think that will happen but imo that how it goes over. I think it far more likely Pitt has 40ish rushing attempts in this game for 200 yards and really control the game. They don’t want to run the risk of shootouts with these high powered offenses they have left on schedule and this the formula to do that.
 
Talk to me about UTEP....looks like they're a typical public dog and we know how that normally plays out but still. Going on the road and winning at FAU---can they do it?

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Talk to me about UTEP....looks like they're a typical public dog and we know how that normally plays out but still. Going on the road and winning at FAU---can they do it?

:popcorn:
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I thought FAU was vulnerable last week at Charlotte. They teams played even in the 1st H. Then Charlotte's QB really struggled in the 3rd Q, badly. Meanwhile FAU got their athletes in space and in holes of the 49er secondary and it turned into a blowout.

I still think that FAU is vulnerable, but have to acknowledge they can put it together on O. I'm not sure their D is all that good.

UTEP has been strong, but also not as strong a they should be. Several of their wins were really not impressive, other than the fact that UTEP winning any kind of multiple games in a season is impressive in and of it's self. Like that LaTech game, ugly win. They weren't great. Southern Miss is god awful. 28-13 is ok, they were only -2. Old Dominion almost came back on them in the 2nd H. They struggled with NM in the 1st H. And that takes us back to the Boise game.

I am fearful that this game for UTEP could more closely resemble the Boise game than some other one of their games.

It is normally a game that I would ML and I am not today. I think they can cover the spread, but I don't know they have enough to win. Their D will have to get a lot of pass rush, which they can. If they don't get pass rush, I don't think their secondary can cover FAU.
 
s--k said:
I thought FAU was vulnerable last week at Charlotte. They teams played even in the 1st H. Then Charlotte's QB really struggled in the 3rd Q, badly. Meanwhile FAU got their athletes in space and in holes of the 49er secondary and it turned into a blowout.

I still think that FAU is vulnerable, but have to acknowledge they can put it together on O. I'm not sure their D is all that good.

UTEP has been strong, but also not as strong a they should be. Several of their wins were really not impressive, other than the fact that UTEP winning any kind of multiple games in a season is impressive in and of it's self. Like that LaTech game, ugly win. They weren't great. Southern Miss is god awful. 28-13 is ok, they were only -2. Old Dominion almost came back on them in the 2nd H. They struggled with NM in the 1st H. And that takes us back to the Boise game.

I am fearful that this game for UTEP could more closely resemble the Boise game than some other one of their games.

It is normally a game that I would ML and I am not today. I think they can cover the spread, but I don't know they have enough to win. Their D will have to get a lot of pass rush, which they can. If they don't get pass rush, I don't think their secondary can cover FAU.
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I'm really surprised UTEP ranks 8th in the country in total defense....partly due to their schedule but still 8th in the country is pretty good for the Miners, no?
 
Yes and no. yes it is impressive because it is UTEP. There is meaningful progress happening in El Paso. But no because, what would FAU be ranked vs that schedule? What would, take a bad defensive team, what would, I don't know, some other bad team rank vs that schedule? It is awful the schedule. If they played New Mexico State again today I think NM State would have a lot better success.
 
I shouldn't say this should I?

I keep getting hung up on Arizona. They haven't scored more than 19 pts in any game this year and have been shut out as well.

USC does not play well at home. They did play better than final score at ND, but coming in here at 3-4...what are they thinking I wonder?

Heartbreaking loss for Arizona. I felt bad for me and my ML, but I really felt bad for those players too. They blew it, could be a tough bounce back for them.

I'm probably going to put something on it. USC passing game should go wild here, but Arizona D overall is better this year.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Talk to me about UTEP....looks like they're a typical public dog and we know how that normally plays out but still. Going on the road and winning at FAU---can they do it?

:popcorn:
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Believe it or not, the database says the fact that they have an undefeated team on deck makes them a good play this week.

Just parlayed

UTEP
+334
Penn State
+753
 
KJ said:
Can't stop looking at FIU, should be fireworks and I think they can be in it til the end
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I remembered you saying this.

The last two games 2018 and 2019 were both 3 point games. Won as 16pt dog in 2017. Line is huge. FIU is a shell of what they were at one time. Marshall has gotten point spread respect all year, but they haven't always played up to it. Could be something here.
 
s--k said:
Navy 50 to win 175
UNLV 10 to win 80
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This is an odd day. I really don't like many MLs I'd put 50 on and then there are a bunch I'd put 10 on so hard to narrow those down. A lot of weird games like Charlotte, Texas St, FIU, Arkansas State where I wouldn't be surprised if they won, but not sure I want to put money on them to win. Probably just take the generous points and be happy there.

Duke 50 to win 265
Louisville 50 to win 95
Arizona 10 to win 90
 
Wow...I'm still smartin' from yesterday....I had Vandy 1st half ML in the last leg of 6 parlays worth a total of little north of $600. Vandy was up 14-10 and had the ball driving into Mizzou territory with 25 sec left in the half and lined up for a 52 yd fga.....why didn't they just fucking punt?? They attempted a fake which failed but I think there were like 22 sec left at this point. Up 4pts I could have still dealt with a fg by Mizzou and still won but LOL these idiots attempt a hail mary with 5 sec left and, you guessed it, TD Mizzou and they go into the half up by 3. I've tried to remember a bad beat like that I've had but it's been a while. I deposited $100 last week which is my weekly budget I use to play with and still, even with these losses, won a few small parlays to up my account to $150 or so. Later, I had UTEP 1st half ML in a couple small parlays (not posted) to win some small change and, LOL, FAU scores a TD with 2 sec to go in the 1st half (not sure how it happened as I was only watching scores.) So, being the idiot homer gambling degen that I am, I decided no way my Cats were losing to Mike Leach and rolled the dice and put my stake all on the Cats (to try and lessen the pain of profits not won earlier from bad beats) and everyone now knows how that panned out. Just writing here as some sort of therapy to move on and get going with my day. It's nice out so I think I'll go ride my bike to get some exercise. Hope you all fared better! Cheers!

:moneyoutofhand:
 
It does help do get that off your chest. I know some people are really good at this, but college football by far is the most unpredictable thing I my life. And we are in a thread where we try and determine not what should happen, instead what isn't supposed to happen but still might. Getting positive results on dogs to win straight up halves and games is tremendously hard. We are drawn in by alluring odds and past knowledge of long shot winners happening weekly keep us hooked trying to find the next one. We lose more than we win and then you get the painful beat that just kicks you in the nuts. Knocks you down and it's like why even do this? Why do I put myself through the anguish? We do it because of the good times. The times you make a play that literally 99% of the people wouldn't make, and it wins. That personal satisfaction of finding it and having the balls to risk it. It's really fun when it works. I try to move on from the bad beats as quickly as possible. Losing money and winning money for me, I've actually made the least important aspect of betting or handicapping. The process. The anticipation. The roller coaster of the game. And when it works, the fun and excitement of the payoff. But you have to take the good with the bad. 5 more weeks and the regular season is gone. 5 more weeks of ML week x edition football threads. Chill out, clear the mind, if we have some personal flaws - address them. And then get back on that horse. The only way to win is if you play. I lose 3-4 weeks in a row, after 20+ years I know why I do it. It's not about the money. It's about everything else.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Wow...I'm still smartin' from yesterday....I had Vandy 1st half ML in the last leg of 6 parlays worth a total of little north of $600. Vandy was up 14-10 and had the ball driving into Mizzou territory with 25 sec left in the half and lined up for a 52 yd fga.....why didn't they just fucking punt?? They attempted a fake which failed but I think there were like 22 sec left at this point. Up 4pts I could have still dealt with a fg by Mizzou and still won but LOL these idiots attempt a hail mary with 5 sec left and, you guessed it, TD Mizzou and they go into the half up by 3. I've tried to remember a bad beat like that I've had but it's been a while. I deposited $100 last week which is my weekly budget I use to play with and still, even with these losses, won a few small parlays to up my account to $150 or so. Later, I had UTEP 1st half ML in a couple small parlays (not posted) to win some small change and, LOL, FAU scores a TD with 2 sec to go in the 1st half (not sure how it happened as I was only watching scores.) So, being the idiot homer gambling degen that I am, I decided no way my Cats were losing to Mike Leach and rolled the dice and put my stake all on the Cats (to try and lessen the pain of profits not won earlier from bad beats) and everyone now knows how that panned out. Just writing here as some sort of therapy to move on and get going with my day. It's nice out so I think I'll go ride my bike to get some exercise. Hope you all fared better! Cheers!

:moneyoutofhand:
Click to expand...
Ride bike daily my guy
 
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