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Goodbye to Romance College Football
Let's try something else the rest of the season. A little post op of the upsets.
Navy, Michigan State, Miami, Bowling Green, Virginia Tech, North Texas, West Virginia, Washington State, Old Dominion, Purdue, Cal, Washington
There were only 11 upsets yesterday. Who were the good ones, the some-what predictable ones, the ones worth our time, effort and money?
Navy - Fundamental and tangible signs of improved play vs a team with mixed results including some poor games as favorite.
Michigan State - Sure they were down by 16 at one point, but their resume shows 2 prior upset wins and an ATS record that continually exceeded expectations.
Miami - Could've figured Pitt, being Pitt and all past history and this season (WMich), might let down. Miami was off back-to-back ATS wins with 1 outright since their bye week.
Bowling Green - Had 3 prior upset wins on the year and an ATS record that has exceeded expectations 6 of the prior 8 games.
Virginia Tech - Difficult one to try and get ahead of. Yesterday was their first cover in the last 6 games! Taking VT was more guessing than anything probably unless a fade of GT as a favorite (0-2 ATS, with 1 outright loss)
North Texas - Other than Rice being a rare or bad favorite, not much reason to play North Texas. They had covered 3 of their last 4 so maybe they were a little undervalued.
West Virginia - Had been historically owned in this series, if you played WVU the last 4 years you just got your first win yesterday. WVU did win the week prior as dog and nearly beat OU as dog. Iowa State is a poor favorite however this year. Excluding Kansas, just 1-4 ATS vs Power 5 teams this year with 2 outright losses. Make it 3 now. Half their games as favorite vs P5 they've lost straight up.
Washington State - Entered off a run of 5 straight ATS wins, including 3 straight up wins. Still hard to figure ASU would lose this one straight up.
Old Dominion - La Tech poor favorite, and slumping team second half of season. ODU with some closer than expected games within 3 of their last 4 results.
Purdue - Purdue already with one road upset win on the year and Nebraska had lost 2 of their 3 prior B1G games as a favorite. I am mad at myself for only having Purdue ATS and not considering them ML.
Cal - Short line, kind of a coin flip game for either team before it started. Could've stated a case for a surging Cal team last 2 post-bye and rare road fav role for Ore St.
Washington - Another short line, kind of coin flip game. Fairly even teams, not a surprising upset by any means.
So of those 9 upset winners, we can see some of the angles that could've led to their selection.
Let's also look at some of the other dogs who were floated and why they were worthwhile shots, but lost.
USF, Iowa, FSU, Ole Miss, Colorado State, UNC, Louisville, Virginia
USF - Not a good team recent years, had showed signs of life the past few games vs a team that is mistake prone and rarely favorite.
Iowa - Unimpressive Wisconsin vs surprising Iowa. If Iowa would've won in the exact same fashion that Wisconsin did it would not have been surprising. Also, the fact that Wisconsin won also really shouldn't come as a surprise. Very similar teams who do similar things good and bad. Yesterday it was all bad from one of the teams.
FSU - Final result and ATS loss not withstanding, FSU was a good ML risk. They led on occasion throughout the game including in the 4th Q. There was good reason to think Clemson could lose. FSU had been playing better (Cuse and UNC wins).
Ole Miss - Was on 3 game SEC win streak, but Auburn off bye and had won 2 of last 3 in SEC. Was a tough game to have strong feelings either way.
Colorado State - This one could be considered both ways, a good risk and a bad risk. A good risk because of underwhelming Boise this year. Boise had lost 3x this year as a favorite and CSU has had some good showings. CSU however is very inconsistent (beat SJ & NM 68-21, lost to Vandy and FCS) and can find ways to lose games they shouldn't (Utah State).
UNC - I think this was a good risk? Game was tied a couple times in the 1st H and and UNC only trailed by 4 late 3rd Q before allowing 91y TD run and then throwing INT deep in own territory on the very next play. On paper UNC looked like an offense that could challenge ND like few other teams have - UNC gained 120 more yards on ND than any prior team Irish had played (565) and scored 11 more pts on ND D (34) than they had been allowing prior (23).
Louisville - One of the favorite dogs around the forum. Case could be made they should've won the WF and UVA games, off bye. NC St suffering some attrition through injuries off tough loss.
Virginia - Not ideal travel and away environment, but entered incredibly hot and proved they were rarely out of any game this season despite what score was.
So that is 20 teams that a reasonable case could've been made for the upset. 12 won and 8 lost.
Now let's look at some others and regardless of if they were close or not, why they weren't the wisest picks
Troy - As long shots go, this wasn't an awful pick. However, Troy had not pulled any upsets this year in two prior chances, but didn't play badly in those. Troy proved to play some D this year and Coastal in off disappointing upset loss. This is the kind of upset that could happen, but will lose more often than it wins. Coastal usually flexes it's muscles vs teams like this. Reasoning for playing ATS and ML not always being the same, a very solid ATS play.
UNLV - Just a bad pick by anyone who thought they could win (this includes me). Sure they were playing better, signs of life and things like that, but UNLV had never won a game under their current head coach, lost 13 straight. That is never a smart ML play.
Tulane - The game was close for a bit and Cincy doesn't play as good as they should at times, but again, a team in Tulane that is going to lose a game like this at a very high percentage of the time. Plus, there was no recent evidence they could do this - they had lost 5 straight ATS, a very under performing team to risk money on.
Texas State - I am guilty of risking MLs on them, thankfully I did not yesterday and hopefully won't have a moment of weakness and do it again. Flat out, simply put, Texas State does things to lose games. Period.
Temple - They just got waxed by South Florida, so that says something about them. They did win vs Memphis as 11 pt dog so that may've been enough to generate some interest vs a weaker UCF team. On the other hand Temple was 1-5 ATS in their other non-Memphis games. So not a good candidate of pulling another upset.
Vanderbilt - Playing another SEC weakling could make for an upset, but Vandy hasn't won an SEC game since 2019. Hey, I ML'd Vandy a couple weeks ago seeking a long shot surprise winner. But a team this bad is going to leave people disappointed at a high rate.
Hawaii - Not sure anyone was on them, but Hawaii is 0-3 ATS on the road this year as a dog. Did beat Fresno at home, but got 4 INTs. Not likely to duplicate something like that on the road. Utah State has played with juice this year.
Texas Tech - Sure, Oklahoma might lose to somebody and Kansas of all teams just almost did it last week. Probably enough reason right there to avoid TT this week, OU back home off that "embarrassing win" vs a team in coaching disarray, chances are TT would make mistakes and they did.
Florida - Probably wise to just not bet against Georgia. They were 5-2 ATS and one of the 2 losses was vs Kentucky who took an epic final drive of the game to backdoor. Florida had lost twice this season as a favorite, hard team to get out of what you think they should do.
Colorado - Doubt anybody had them, but they suck regardless of what we think of Oregon's recent play. No evidence at all CU would be one to push them.
Northwestern - Minnesota is hot right now, won and covered 3 straight since losing to Bowling Green! Sure we don't see a great team in Minn so it makes them appealing to try and pick against, so then, was NW a good candidate? No. They were held to 7 points in two of their last three games and the one game in there they won was just vs lowly Rutgers and that game was a surprise result. Minny might lose soon, but figuring a team like NW would do it with their limited offense wasn't a good risk.
Boston College - Off two poor games (or atleast 1.5) and Syracuse has been rolling covering 6 straight ATS and even taking better teams to close losses.
FIU - While Marshall has shown some vulnerability more than once this year, FIU has fallen down a deep hole. Granted they should've/could've won at Central Michigan, but have also not been very competitive vs other teams their own size in WKU (back door cover), Charlotte (trailed 13-31 before 4th Q), FAU (just crushed them) and lost to Texas State of all teams. Picking against Marshall isn't a terrible idea, FIU isn't the best choice to do it with.
ULM - This seemed like a worth while shot. Don't odds makers usually catch up to overachieving teams and start adjusting their lines accordingly? They lined ULM still as 4 TD dog which implies all their big upset wins as flukes or what is more likely, the line was wrong and the teams they beat are not as good as we thought. ULM beat South Alabama and Troy as part of their two big upsets, USA and Troy aren't that good and shouldn't have been laying that number on the road to begin with.
Southern Miss - Again, doubt anybody had this team. MTSU not great, but they did just prove they can blowout bad teams (UConn) and Southern Miss very much qualifies as a bad team.
Wyoming - One of the worst offenses in the NCAA, they entered yesterday on a 3 game losing streak and nearly on a 4 game losing streak if we go back to the UConn game! Not a good team to risk money on winning right now.
Duke - Duke has scored 0 and 7 pts in two of their last three ACC games. While WF D did show plenty of holes and weakness, it still takes a team that knows how to move the ball and score to exploit it. That not Duke. And as bad as the Duke O is, the Duke D is equally bad. Having a bad D vs WF is not good to go against.
Charlotte - WKU is just so much more competent on O that trying to pick a team like Charlotte to beat them is going to lose at a high clip especially considering Charlotte is very average at best and has a bad D.
Arkansas State - The fact that Ark State had just played ULL close and the fact that South Alabama had just lost to ULM made it appealing. Instead it provided value on USA. This game was close in the second half showing there is some improvement in Ark St and South Bama still has lots of growing to do, but hopefully nobody ML'd this.
UTEP - UTEP was down by 18 late 4th Q and made a game of it. UTEP isn't an awful pick really, but it was a bad matchup. The Miners have come a long way, but they still have yet to win games like this.
Arizona - When you have a 20 game losing streak, probably not the best team to bet to win straight up. The fact they only lost by 7 is the fools gold that we can fall for. USC is a poor favorite and Arizona, while bad, isn't total trash, but also doesn't do many things right.
Kansas - Kansas should not be ML'd ever
Penn State - This game was a very close 1st H for good while and a fairly competitive game, but figuring Penn State to win this straight up is a very low probability win. Not much of a case could've been made other than a hunch anyway.
UCLA - Back up QB and historically a bad matchup for UCLA, the last 3 have been ugly
I didn't do that to be critical of any person or plays. I myself, put real money on some of the teams on the bad list. We know that those kind of upsets can happen (like Illinois just last week), so we try and find it. Personally, I love trying to find those, but I have to admit and say that it isn't going to be profitable long run and I am going to lose way more of those than it is probably worth it. If I stick to the teams at the top of the post, the ones where a credible case can actually be made I would likely have more games to celebrate and few games to regret.
Some teams are just better candidates than others. And if we are honest with ourselves, we know who they are and who they aren't.
Let's find them next week!
Navy, Michigan State, Miami, Bowling Green, Virginia Tech, North Texas, West Virginia, Washington State, Old Dominion, Purdue, Cal, Washington
There were only 11 upsets yesterday. Who were the good ones, the some-what predictable ones, the ones worth our time, effort and money?
Navy - Fundamental and tangible signs of improved play vs a team with mixed results including some poor games as favorite.
Michigan State - Sure they were down by 16 at one point, but their resume shows 2 prior upset wins and an ATS record that continually exceeded expectations.
Miami - Could've figured Pitt, being Pitt and all past history and this season (WMich), might let down. Miami was off back-to-back ATS wins with 1 outright since their bye week.
Bowling Green - Had 3 prior upset wins on the year and an ATS record that has exceeded expectations 6 of the prior 8 games.
Virginia Tech - Difficult one to try and get ahead of. Yesterday was their first cover in the last 6 games! Taking VT was more guessing than anything probably unless a fade of GT as a favorite (0-2 ATS, with 1 outright loss)
North Texas - Other than Rice being a rare or bad favorite, not much reason to play North Texas. They had covered 3 of their last 4 so maybe they were a little undervalued.
West Virginia - Had been historically owned in this series, if you played WVU the last 4 years you just got your first win yesterday. WVU did win the week prior as dog and nearly beat OU as dog. Iowa State is a poor favorite however this year. Excluding Kansas, just 1-4 ATS vs Power 5 teams this year with 2 outright losses. Make it 3 now. Half their games as favorite vs P5 they've lost straight up.
Washington State - Entered off a run of 5 straight ATS wins, including 3 straight up wins. Still hard to figure ASU would lose this one straight up.
Old Dominion - La Tech poor favorite, and slumping team second half of season. ODU with some closer than expected games within 3 of their last 4 results.
Purdue - Purdue already with one road upset win on the year and Nebraska had lost 2 of their 3 prior B1G games as a favorite. I am mad at myself for only having Purdue ATS and not considering them ML.
Cal - Short line, kind of a coin flip game for either team before it started. Could've stated a case for a surging Cal team last 2 post-bye and rare road fav role for Ore St.
Washington - Another short line, kind of coin flip game. Fairly even teams, not a surprising upset by any means.
So of those 9 upset winners, we can see some of the angles that could've led to their selection.
Let's also look at some of the other dogs who were floated and why they were worthwhile shots, but lost.
USF, Iowa, FSU, Ole Miss, Colorado State, UNC, Louisville, Virginia
USF - Not a good team recent years, had showed signs of life the past few games vs a team that is mistake prone and rarely favorite.
Iowa - Unimpressive Wisconsin vs surprising Iowa. If Iowa would've won in the exact same fashion that Wisconsin did it would not have been surprising. Also, the fact that Wisconsin won also really shouldn't come as a surprise. Very similar teams who do similar things good and bad. Yesterday it was all bad from one of the teams.
FSU - Final result and ATS loss not withstanding, FSU was a good ML risk. They led on occasion throughout the game including in the 4th Q. There was good reason to think Clemson could lose. FSU had been playing better (Cuse and UNC wins).
Ole Miss - Was on 3 game SEC win streak, but Auburn off bye and had won 2 of last 3 in SEC. Was a tough game to have strong feelings either way.
Colorado State - This one could be considered both ways, a good risk and a bad risk. A good risk because of underwhelming Boise this year. Boise had lost 3x this year as a favorite and CSU has had some good showings. CSU however is very inconsistent (beat SJ & NM 68-21, lost to Vandy and FCS) and can find ways to lose games they shouldn't (Utah State).
UNC - I think this was a good risk? Game was tied a couple times in the 1st H and and UNC only trailed by 4 late 3rd Q before allowing 91y TD run and then throwing INT deep in own territory on the very next play. On paper UNC looked like an offense that could challenge ND like few other teams have - UNC gained 120 more yards on ND than any prior team Irish had played (565) and scored 11 more pts on ND D (34) than they had been allowing prior (23).
Louisville - One of the favorite dogs around the forum. Case could be made they should've won the WF and UVA games, off bye. NC St suffering some attrition through injuries off tough loss.
Virginia - Not ideal travel and away environment, but entered incredibly hot and proved they were rarely out of any game this season despite what score was.
So that is 20 teams that a reasonable case could've been made for the upset. 12 won and 8 lost.
Now let's look at some others and regardless of if they were close or not, why they weren't the wisest picks
Troy - As long shots go, this wasn't an awful pick. However, Troy had not pulled any upsets this year in two prior chances, but didn't play badly in those. Troy proved to play some D this year and Coastal in off disappointing upset loss. This is the kind of upset that could happen, but will lose more often than it wins. Coastal usually flexes it's muscles vs teams like this. Reasoning for playing ATS and ML not always being the same, a very solid ATS play.
UNLV - Just a bad pick by anyone who thought they could win (this includes me). Sure they were playing better, signs of life and things like that, but UNLV had never won a game under their current head coach, lost 13 straight. That is never a smart ML play.
Tulane - The game was close for a bit and Cincy doesn't play as good as they should at times, but again, a team in Tulane that is going to lose a game like this at a very high percentage of the time. Plus, there was no recent evidence they could do this - they had lost 5 straight ATS, a very under performing team to risk money on.
Texas State - I am guilty of risking MLs on them, thankfully I did not yesterday and hopefully won't have a moment of weakness and do it again. Flat out, simply put, Texas State does things to lose games. Period.
Temple - They just got waxed by South Florida, so that says something about them. They did win vs Memphis as 11 pt dog so that may've been enough to generate some interest vs a weaker UCF team. On the other hand Temple was 1-5 ATS in their other non-Memphis games. So not a good candidate of pulling another upset.
Vanderbilt - Playing another SEC weakling could make for an upset, but Vandy hasn't won an SEC game since 2019. Hey, I ML'd Vandy a couple weeks ago seeking a long shot surprise winner. But a team this bad is going to leave people disappointed at a high rate.
Hawaii - Not sure anyone was on them, but Hawaii is 0-3 ATS on the road this year as a dog. Did beat Fresno at home, but got 4 INTs. Not likely to duplicate something like that on the road. Utah State has played with juice this year.
Texas Tech - Sure, Oklahoma might lose to somebody and Kansas of all teams just almost did it last week. Probably enough reason right there to avoid TT this week, OU back home off that "embarrassing win" vs a team in coaching disarray, chances are TT would make mistakes and they did.
Florida - Probably wise to just not bet against Georgia. They were 5-2 ATS and one of the 2 losses was vs Kentucky who took an epic final drive of the game to backdoor. Florida had lost twice this season as a favorite, hard team to get out of what you think they should do.
Colorado - Doubt anybody had them, but they suck regardless of what we think of Oregon's recent play. No evidence at all CU would be one to push them.
Northwestern - Minnesota is hot right now, won and covered 3 straight since losing to Bowling Green! Sure we don't see a great team in Minn so it makes them appealing to try and pick against, so then, was NW a good candidate? No. They were held to 7 points in two of their last three games and the one game in there they won was just vs lowly Rutgers and that game was a surprise result. Minny might lose soon, but figuring a team like NW would do it with their limited offense wasn't a good risk.
Boston College - Off two poor games (or atleast 1.5) and Syracuse has been rolling covering 6 straight ATS and even taking better teams to close losses.
FIU - While Marshall has shown some vulnerability more than once this year, FIU has fallen down a deep hole. Granted they should've/could've won at Central Michigan, but have also not been very competitive vs other teams their own size in WKU (back door cover), Charlotte (trailed 13-31 before 4th Q), FAU (just crushed them) and lost to Texas State of all teams. Picking against Marshall isn't a terrible idea, FIU isn't the best choice to do it with.
ULM - This seemed like a worth while shot. Don't odds makers usually catch up to overachieving teams and start adjusting their lines accordingly? They lined ULM still as 4 TD dog which implies all their big upset wins as flukes or what is more likely, the line was wrong and the teams they beat are not as good as we thought. ULM beat South Alabama and Troy as part of their two big upsets, USA and Troy aren't that good and shouldn't have been laying that number on the road to begin with.
Southern Miss - Again, doubt anybody had this team. MTSU not great, but they did just prove they can blowout bad teams (UConn) and Southern Miss very much qualifies as a bad team.
Wyoming - One of the worst offenses in the NCAA, they entered yesterday on a 3 game losing streak and nearly on a 4 game losing streak if we go back to the UConn game! Not a good team to risk money on winning right now.
Duke - Duke has scored 0 and 7 pts in two of their last three ACC games. While WF D did show plenty of holes and weakness, it still takes a team that knows how to move the ball and score to exploit it. That not Duke. And as bad as the Duke O is, the Duke D is equally bad. Having a bad D vs WF is not good to go against.
Charlotte - WKU is just so much more competent on O that trying to pick a team like Charlotte to beat them is going to lose at a high clip especially considering Charlotte is very average at best and has a bad D.
Arkansas State - The fact that Ark State had just played ULL close and the fact that South Alabama had just lost to ULM made it appealing. Instead it provided value on USA. This game was close in the second half showing there is some improvement in Ark St and South Bama still has lots of growing to do, but hopefully nobody ML'd this.
UTEP - UTEP was down by 18 late 4th Q and made a game of it. UTEP isn't an awful pick really, but it was a bad matchup. The Miners have come a long way, but they still have yet to win games like this.
Arizona - When you have a 20 game losing streak, probably not the best team to bet to win straight up. The fact they only lost by 7 is the fools gold that we can fall for. USC is a poor favorite and Arizona, while bad, isn't total trash, but also doesn't do many things right.
Kansas - Kansas should not be ML'd ever
Penn State - This game was a very close 1st H for good while and a fairly competitive game, but figuring Penn State to win this straight up is a very low probability win. Not much of a case could've been made other than a hunch anyway.
UCLA - Back up QB and historically a bad matchup for UCLA, the last 3 have been ugly
I didn't do that to be critical of any person or plays. I myself, put real money on some of the teams on the bad list. We know that those kind of upsets can happen (like Illinois just last week), so we try and find it. Personally, I love trying to find those, but I have to admit and say that it isn't going to be profitable long run and I am going to lose way more of those than it is probably worth it. If I stick to the teams at the top of the post, the ones where a credible case can actually be made I would likely have more games to celebrate and few games to regret.
Some teams are just better candidates than others. And if we are honest with ourselves, we know who they are and who they aren't.
Let's find them next week!
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