ML Dog Week 10 Edition

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
On to Week 10!

We have some Tuesday Night MACtion starting this week.

Stop on in drop your thoughts!
 
MAC has been very competitive this year. The teams at the top are good, but not relatively great compared to some years before and while Akron is still bad, the other teams at the bottom are competitive. Makes for good games, and many of them have been. All the games but one this week make for good candidates to ML.

ML perspectives:

Good upset candidates:

Eastern Michigan +280 – Played good bully out of conference, then just 2-2 SU in MAC play so far, first 3 were one score games, blew BG out last game. EM has history of tight one-score games.
-at-
Toledo – Off best win of the year 34-15 over WMich. Prior, UT had lost 3x this year as a favorite in a pretty uneven season.

Ohio +240 – Improved play, close losses in last 3 (lost 3 games by total of 11 pts). Not able to turn corner yet. Played even vs Kent in 1st H last game in yardage, but –3 in TOs in 1st H put them behind. Led Buffalo entire game except very end.
-vs-
Miami Oh – One loss as fav at EMich. Solid team but unspectacular. Last two games in series decided by total of 5 points, both Miami wins.

Northern Illinois +170 – 3 outright upset wins (GT, Toledo, CMich)! Remarkable improvement over last season (0-6 2020 – 6-2, 4-0 MAC 2021).
-at-
Kent State – Only beat BG by 7 laying 16, Buffalo by 10 laying 6 and Ohio by 7 laying 5.5. The last two had moments of closeness or misleading aspects. A somewhat close game 1st H turned blowout loss vs WMich.

Central Mich +305 – One win as dog (Toledo in OT). Last 3 games decided by total of 7 points. Has lost to WMich by 8 or more the last 3 years.
-at-
Western Mich – 2-2-1 ATS last 5 as favorite, has been upset twice in last 3 games (Ball St and Toledo).

Bad upset candidate:

Akron +750 – Just two wins on the year, one vs Bryant and one at BG as 14pt dog. Lost other 3 MAC games by 2 scores or more.
-vs-
Ball State – Rough start to season before winning next 3. Off loss to Miami Oh (plus+ turnovers in wins, minus– turnovers in loss).
 
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If anyone has teams they like, it helps to give a little opinion this week along with it.

Let's try to really drill down and find a little bit of reasoning why the play might be a good idea or not.
 
Last week I went away from my data I normally do and simply tried to do as @s--k says and ID situations....I sniffed some spare change and had a chance for some significant wins for me by doing so....even though it eventually cost me some bad beats...but I was close. Methinks this time of year it's all about situations and IDing some habits of teams and throw some rivalry games in there as well....let's do this!

Illinois - this one pops out at me as Minny is coming home off a blowout road win...recall they lost at home to BG after drubbing the Buffs otr. Illini in a bounceback situation after a home loss....if they can win at PSU they can win at Minny just need Bielema to publically trash his roster again sometime this week and we could have a winner! ;)

Nebraska - Can the Huskers hang here? Bucks off a slugfest going otr....my only angle here is we're not too far removed when Urban Meyer led Bucks would drop a game like this...they did it at Iowa one year and at Purdue another....how closely does a Day-led Bucks team resemble a Meyer-led Bucks team?

Maryland - do these two teams not hate one another? I seem to recall that's the case and this could qualify as a rivalry game. Can the Bucks loss turn into another? Not sure the MD D can hang here though...

Indiana - possible letdown by Michigan after that tough loss last week??

Temple - USF just trashed Temple at home a couple weeks ago...last week ECU beat USF so that means this should be an easy win for ECU, right? I wish it were this easy. Honestly, ECU should win this one handily but how many times have we said ECU is unreliable? Trying to find another angle here but need some help...

Navy - yeah they've been playing better but this is a tall order....one thing about this ND team is I just don't see them having any letdowns (correct me if I'm wrong) which is what it would take for the Middies to win.

Tulsa - can Tulsa hang? They've hung tough in some games this year (@OSU for example) and Cincy has lost ATS last two games...can the shocker happen?

USF - they've played gradually better all season and Houston coming off a huge win and this is a possible letdown spot.

Liberty - interesting...I think I read someone's thread on this site somewhere about how much Ole Miss is looking forward to the return of Hugh Freeze so not sure how much of a shot the Flames have....but still an interesting non-conference matchup.

Vols - yeah I'm worried about this one...all week long last week I read one article after another on Kentucky-based media saying how my Cats were not taking State lightly and they were going to Stark-Vegas to win...whelp that didn't happen. Yesterday I read how Stoops lit into his team and how he vows to find players that will play the way he wants them too....so yeah in theory this could be a bounce-back by my Cats but it's also more huff n puff....bottom line is 1) we've lost too many key defensive players to injury and 2) State game was 2nd game this season I watched as Brad White (DC) made absolutely zero adjustments to stop the opposing offense (Mizzou game being the other). Huff n Puff all you want coach but if you don't have the players you had at the beginning of the season and it leads you to not making any adjustments when your DC is being outcoached...well then there is no chance we slow down Heupel's offense...just another side-note...two years ago we beat a Hooker-led Hokie team in a bowl game. I wonder if he is going to be extra-motivated this week?

Georgia State - they hung tough at Auburn...let's talk about this game....give us an angle!

Georgia Tech - letdown situation for the Canes perhaps?

Duke - lifeless is what I would call them last week but they are 2-0 ATS this season off a road game. Did we all back Duke on the wrong week last week?

MTSU - rivalry game

That's all I see for now....

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
how closely does a Day-led Bucks team resemble a Meyer-led Bucks team
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I'd say zero resemblance.

JROCK1966 said:
Did we all back Duke on the wrong week last week?
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Every time I've back Duke it's almost always been the wrong week (thank God they played North Carolina A&T and Northwestern).

Tonight or tomorrow I should have some kind of run down. But as far as identifying candidates, I think teams like Duke and Nebraska will not fit the definition of good candidates. That doesn't mean it can't happen, and people follow hunches and it can pay off. But in terms of finding evidence of where the upsets might happen, there is little for Nebraska and virtually zero for Duke. Duke has scored single digits or been shut out in 3 of their 4 ACC games while allowing 38, 48 and 41 pts in those. They played GT tight and could've won that game, but it looks like the anomaly. Taking Duke pts ATS is one thing, but not sure I can create any angles for the SU win.

Still, lots of other good takes in there!
 
Thursday and Friday looks:

Good:

Georgia State +340 – Not a great dog this year (blowout losses to UNC and App State), but did take Auburn to the absolute wire as 4 TD dog.
-at-
ULL – Are 3-0 SU in series, but 0-3 ATS. Won in OT last year (ULL was off ISU upset win). Only lost as favorite 3x under Napier (Coastal twice and App St once), but have had several close calls including this year beating Ark St by just 1 (18pt fav) and South Alabama by 2 (-12.5, USA missed FG at end).

Not Sure:

Boston College +135 – After covering and in position for win +15 at Clemson, have dropped last 3 SU and ATS being outscored 27-82 (NCSt, LV, Cuse). Which QB is going to start?
-vs-
Virginia Tech – VT won big last year 40-14 (-12), but prior to that BC won in 2018 (+2) and 2019 (+4.5). Was upset once this year -3.5 vs Syracuse. Were upset 4x last year, 3x in 2019 and 2x in 2018.

Stanford +260 – Stanford alternating win-loss-win last 6 games, time for a win. No but really, Stanford with 2 upset wins this year (USC and Oregon). Stanford pulled 2 upsets in 3 dog home dog roles last year and 1 of 2 chances this year. McKee ?
-vs-
Utah – Have been upset 3x this year (BYU, SD St, Ore St).
 
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Not saying those are going to win or lose, I don't know what is going to happen. Just trying to lay out the case ahead of time to see if these dogs appear capable of an upset win or if the favorites might show signs of weakness. Will try and do all the Saturday games, but that is a lot of games!
 
Wake Forest
Purdue
Wyoming (one of the biggest disappointments of the season, but a huge rivalry game and at home getting points)
Hawaii

Was going to add Rutgers, but Bear took Rutgers today on Daily Wager
 
s--k said:
MAC has been very competitive this year. The teams at the top are good, but not relatively great compared to some years before and while Akron is still bad, the other teams at the bottom are competitive. Makes for good games, and many of them have been. All the games but one this week make for good candidates to ML.

ML perspectives:

Good upset candidates:

Eastern Michigan +280 – Played good bully out of conference, then just 2-2 SU in MAC play so far, first 3 were one score games, blew BG out last game. EM has history of tight one-score games.
-at-
Toledo – Off best win of the year 34-15 over WMich. Prior, UT had lost 3x this year as a favorite in a pretty uneven season.

Ohio +240 – Improved play, close losses in last 3 (lost 3 games by total of 11 pts). Not able to turn corner yet. Played even vs Kent in 1st H last game in yardage, but –3 in TOs in 1st H put them behind. Led Buffalo entire game except very end.
-vs-
Miami Oh – One loss as fav at EMich. Solid team but unspectacular. Last two games in series decided by total of 5 points, both Miami wins.

Northern Illinois +170 – 3 outright upset wins (GT, Toledo, CMich)! Remarkable improvement over last season (0-6 2020 – 6-2, 4-0 MAC 2021).
-at-
Kent State – Only beat BG by 7 laying 16, Buffalo by 10 laying 6 and Ohio by 7 laying 5.5. The last two had moments of closeness or misleading aspects. A somewhat close game 1st H turned blowout loss vs WMich.

Central Mich +305 – One win as dog (Toledo in OT). Last 3 games decided by total of 7 points. Has lost to WMich by 8 or more the last 3 years.
-at-
Western Mich – 2-2-1 ATS last 5 as favorite, has been upset twice in last 3 games (Ball St and Toledo).

Bad upset candidate:

Akron +750 – Just two wins on the year, one vs Bryant and one at BG as 14pt dog. Lost other 3 MAC games by 2 scores or more.
-vs-
Ball State – Rough start to season before winning next 3. Off loss to Miami Oh (plus+ turnovers in wins, minus– turnovers in loss).
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Akron freaking had that shit and fumbles going in for winning score! Ugh.

E. Michigan was nice.
 
2daBank said:
Akron freaking had that shit and fumbles going in for winning score! Ugh.

E. Michigan was nice.
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Yeah that is tough for them. Not sure anyone would've played Akron ML.

Just goes to show you, unexpected and unpredictable things can, do and will happen.

I thought that both EM and Ohio were good candidates tonight. I was going to ML both and hope one hit, but ultimately I decided just to ML Ohio as they appeared to be the better spot, at home in rivalry game which really were playing good football just not getting the wins. Eastern Michigan on the other hand, was on the road, a place they hadn't won since 1999 I think and Toledo's D I thought was really good. I thought it was the best in the MAC. So I stayed away from that ML and just took some points.

But that is what I'm trying to do this week. No dart board underdog picks. Really see what dogs have positives to take away, what dogs have redeeming qualities and history to believe in and what favorites might be weak and more likely to get beat? No way anybody can know the future, but I want to ML teams that you can actually make a case for or a case against favorites. Teams like Akron almost did tonight are going to win, and I might even still take a couple, but I really want to focus and maybe get everyone else to focus on where and why the upsets are going to happen and see if we can pick the winners before hand with reason. I'm working on list I'll have to finish tomorrow. Maybe I will post half of it tonight.
 
Here is the first third of the Saturday rotation grouped by good, bad and not sure. Let me know if you think I miscategorized somebody and why. I will try and finish the rest of the games tomorrow, I don't know if I can get them all.

Good candidates:

Army +125 – Army pulled upset +2.5 at Georgia State week 1, but dogged last 2 games 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS. Army has won 2 of last 3 in series. Dog has covered 2 of last 3 (last year 2.5 pt line in 3 point game). Last 3 in series decided by total of 10 points! Army on 3 game losing streak (Ball, Wisconsin, WF). Off bye.
-neutral site, Arlington- 4th time at neutral site, one win apiece and one tie.
Air Force – Was upset (-3) last game at home by San Diego St, also upset (-9) home vs Utah St. AF already beat Navy, if they beat Army they will win the CIC. Off bye.


Florida State +115 – won as 17.5 pt dog at UNC and nearly pulled off week 1 upset of Notre Dame. Playing better ball second half of season compared to first half. Could be deflated after blowing lead at Clemson last week? They had bye after big UNC upset. After nearly knocking off ND they came back the following week and lost at home vs Jax St. Miami on deck.
-vs-
North Carolina State – Lost 2 of 3 road games straight up this year as favorites (MissSt and Miami Fl). Has won 3 of last 4 vs FSU, two as favorites of 9.5 and 10 and one as a dog in 2017. FSU won last time in Tallahassee as 6.5 pt favorite. Wake Forest on deck.


Georgia Tech +313 - GT (+18) won at Miami 2019 Geoff Collins first year. DNP last year. GT has won the last two as upsets 2019 and 2018 then 2017 was just a 1 pt loss. Those earlier years were option GT though. GT only pulled one upset so far this year (UNC) and have got down big in other games vs Pitt and Virginia. D is a problem.
-at-
Miami - Not sure GT themselves are really a good candidate other than having an O that can move it and score, but Miami always hard to trust laying points. Miami has been upset twice this year (MSU and UVA) and nearly a third (App St), 0-3 ATS as fav. Canes have been upset 9x as a fav 2019-current. Offense is working again with Freshman QB however. Florida State on deck!


Louisville +165 – 3-1 at home this year SU with only loss a 1 pointer allowing comeback to UVA. Was on a 3-0 ATS dog run before non-cover at NC St last week. Have won 2 SU as dogs (UCF, FSU and nearly won at WF). Did not pull any upsets in 5 chances last year. QB banged up?
-vs-
Clemson – Still haven’t really earned a cover. Several almost losses in ACC play (GT 6 pt game, BC 6 pt game, Cuse 3 pt game, lost vs NC St 6 pt game and won FSU in what was really a 4 pt game). Why can't they almost or actually lose again?


Wake Forest +115 – Have survived a couple close calls, like FG at buzzer vs Louisville and surviving Syracuse in OT. Beat Army in a whipsaw game. Was +13 last year and backdoored, WF D allowed 742 yards which was a school record for Heels. Roles reversed this year, WF is the team that comes in rolling, but aren’t getting the same line respect UNC did last year. This game is non-ACC game, so win/loss here won’t count for conference standings. NC State on deck.
-at-
North Carolina – Losing losing record vs Power 5 teams, 3-4. Have failed to cover 4 of last 5 (all but last week were TD+ favs, last week 3.5 pt dog). UNC played fairly well last week outside of a couple key swing plays. Put up most yards on ND than any other team, but Notre Dame had their most yards gained on UNC as well! Pitt on deck.


Tulane +400 – Did Tulane get some things figured out last week? Hope so because were dismal in prior 5 games getting absolutely blown out. But played Cincy tough and only lost by 19 after playing closer than that. Could be a little bounce in this team.
-at-
Central Florida – looks to be a good fade as favorite, UCF has lost 2 straight up as fav and started the season 0-4 ATS as favorite, but note they have covered the last 2 as favs beating Memphis 24-7 and Temple 49-7. Not sure we can use previous years in this year’s game, but UCF failed to cover in 2020 and 2019 vs Tulane. SMU on deck.



Bad Candidates:

Duke +850 Only been in one ACC game this year 27-31 loss to GT (+4) where Duke led and allowed comeback. In 3 other ACC games Duke was outscored 14-131 (UNC, UVA, WF). Duke has lost 9 of 10 in the series and 5 straight.
-vs-
Pitt – Lost twice this year as favorites (WMich and Miami). Could be flat off Miami loss? Lost two ACC games as favorites last year (NCSt and BC). Also lost two ACC games as favs in 2019. UNC on deck.


Louisiana Tech +425 – Fading second half of season so far, lost 4 straight SU including 2 as favorites. Only scored 39 pts last 3 games combined. 3-1 ATS as dogs this year with only dog spread miss home vs UTSA. Do have narrow losses as dogs (Miss St+20.5 lost by 1 missed FG at end, SMU+11 lost on hailmary with :00, NC St +18 lost by 7). Last year LT upset them +13 in OT!
-at-
UAB – traditionally unbeatable in old stadium, but just 1-2 SU in new stadium, lost last game here vs Rice as 24pt favorite! Prior to last year’s loss in the series, UAB had won the last 3, but only covered 1. UAB off bye and likely remember last year's game.


Georgia Southern +800 – 2-2 ATS in Sun Belt play, but no upset wins and fired coach a few weeks back and failed to cover last two. Beat Coastal in 2018 and 2019, but a lot is different now compared to then. Georgia Southern is probably a team that is hard to gameplan for right now, but Ga So also doesn’t have many pieces or do much well.
-vs-
Coastal Carolina – Was rolling covering 4 of first 5 as big favorites before dropping last 2 ATS and lost at App St two weeks ago. Closer than some expected game last week vs Troy might create more focused effort here.


Not Sure:

Rutgers +400 – No upset wins in 3 chances this year (all vs top 10 teams though). Only lost by 7 at Michigan, but by 14 at Northwestern for hard to predict team. Pulled 3 upsets last year (MSU, Pur, Mary) and nearly beat Mich and Neb last year also.
-vs-
Wisconsin – Won 4 straight after opening 1-3 and playing in “playoff mode”. 2-0 on Big Ten road winning 24-0 and 30-13. Offense can be easy to want to fade, defense still tight.


Northwestern +400 – Won 4 of last 5 vs Iowa! Only 1-3 ATS as dog this year, but the 1 win was a home upset of Rutgers catching 2.5. Been noncompetitive vs MSU, Duke (came back 2nd H), Neb, Mich and Minn. Season resembles 2019 when NW actually went 3-8-1 ATS with no covers as home dog and only 1 upset, somehow dogged 7 vs Illinois that year.
-vs-
Iowa – Amazing that NW has won 4 of last 5, I’m sure Hawkeye players fully aware. NW won last year 21-20, but last time NW was bad in 2019 Iowa won 20-0 in Evanston. Off -3 turnover game at Wisconsin where they got destroyed. On 2 game losing streak. Last time they lost 3 straight it was at the hands of NW in 2018! Total Offense ranked dead last, 14th in Big Ten 291.5 ypg. Minnesota on deck.


South Florida +425 – USF disappointed several last game at ECU with backup QB. Before that nearly upset Tulsa and beat Temple 34-14. Had covered 3 of 4 prior to dropping ECU and the loss in there was a game vs SMU that was close for 3 Q.
-vs-
Houston – Last two in the series 2018 and 2020 have been UH beat downs 113-57! Possible for Cougs to be flat off big SMU win vs team they have pounded? UH is 0-2 ATS as favs of 13 or more vs FBS this year.


Indiana +800 – ZERO wins vs Power 5 teams this year. New QB last week vs porous Maryland D did show life. They used to play D here, but have allowed 38 last week and 54 to OSU (guess hard to kock them for that). Still were solid D unit before prior two weeks, notably playing MSU tough and led Cincinnati at HT in what seems like another season ago now.
-vs-
Michigan – Could be flat of letting 16pt lead split away in East Lansing. Fact that Indiana beat them badly 38-21 last year likely has Michigan’s attention here. Penn State on deck.


Illinois +500 – Hard team to put finger on. Lose to Rutgers, beat Penn State, shut out vs Wisconsin, trail Charlotte at halftime – those last 4 games. 4-3 ATS as underdog with 2 upset wins (Nebraska, PSU). ILL couldn’t run on Rutgers last week and allowed 230 (4.5). Hard to use past seasons much with this year’s team, were dominated more than final score last year vs Minn.
-at-
Minnesota – Down their top 2 RBs and 3 RBs overall, they just keep going, ran for 308 (5.8) on NW last week (outgained NW by 200 yards). Min will never live down being upset by BGSU, but they are trying, winning and covering their last 4. Have Iowa on deck, which is a huge game.
 
s--k said:
Yeah that is tough for them. Not sure anyone would've played Akron ML.

Just goes to show you, unexpected and unpredictable things can, do and will happen.

I thought that both EM and Ohio were good candidates tonight. I was going to ML both and hope one hit, but ultimately I decided just to ML Ohio as they appeared to be the better spot, at home in rivalry game which really were playing good football just not getting the wins. Eastern Michigan on the other hand, was on the road, a place they hadn't won since 1999 I think and Toledo's D I thought was really good. I thought it was the best in the MAC. So I stayed away from that ML and just took some points.

But that is what I'm trying to do this week. No dart board underdog picks. Really see what dogs have positives to take away, what dogs have redeeming qualities and history to believe in and what favorites might be weak and more likely to get beat? No way anybody can know the future, but I want to ML teams that you can actually make a case for or a case against favorites. Teams like Akron almost did tonight are going to win, and I might even still take a couple, but I really want to focus and maybe get everyone else to focus on where and why the upsets are going to happen and see if we can pick the winners before hand with reason. I'm working on list I'll have to finish tomorrow. Maybe I will post half of it tonight.
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If i would have bet mac last night i coulda def seen myself with a ml dog parlay that had akron in it, i feel like they been a lot more competitive this year and i dont trust any team in the mac to lay that much!! luckily i just stuck with the WS last night or it woulda broke my heart as im sure even 5-10 bucks on a akron/ecu ml parlay would have paid really nice! (figure i would have did a 3 team RR in group of 2s with all 3 dogs). i could roll with central mich tonight but think im just passing.
 
s--k said:
Here is the first third of the Saturday rotation grouped by good, bad and not sure. Let me know if you think I miscategorized somebody and why. I will try and finish the rest of the games tomorrow, I don't know if I can get them all.

Good candidates:

Army +125 – Army pulled upset +2.5 at Georgia State week 1, but dogged last 2 games 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS. Army has won 2 of last 3 in series. Dog has covered 2 of last 3 (last year 2.5 pt line in 3 point game). Last 3 in series decided by total of 10 points! Army on 3 game losing streak (Ball, Wisconsin, WF). Off bye.
-neutral site, Arlington- 4th time at neutral site, one win apiece and one tie.
Air Force – Was upset (-3) last game at home by San Diego St, also upset (-9) home vs Utah St. AF already beat Navy, if they beat Army they will win the CIC. Off bye.


Florida State +115 – won as 17.5 pt dog at UNC and nearly pulled off week 1 upset of Notre Dame. Playing better ball second half of season compared to first half. Could be deflated after blowing lead at Clemson last week? They had bye after big UNC upset. After nearly knocking off ND they came back the following week and lost at home vs Jax St. Miami on deck.
-vs-
North Carolina State – Lost 2 of 3 road games straight up this year as favorites (MissSt and Miami Fl). Has won 3 of last 4 vs FSU, two as favorites of 9.5 and 10 and one as a dog in 2017. FSU won last time in Tallahassee as 6.5 pt favorite. Wake Forest on deck.


Georgia Tech +313 - GT (+18) won at Miami 2019 Geoff Collins first year. DNP last year. GT has won the last two as upsets 2019 and 2018 then 2017 was just a 1 pt loss. Those earlier years were option GT though. GT only pulled one upset so far this year (UNC) and have got down big in other games vs Pitt and Virginia. D is a problem.
-at-
Miami - Not sure GT themselves are really a good candidate other than having an O that can move it and score, but Miami always hard to trust laying points. Miami has been upset twice this year (MSU and UVA) and nearly a third (App St), 0-3 ATS as fav. Canes have been upset 9x as a fav 2019-current. Offense is working again with Freshman QB however. Florida State on deck!


Louisville +165 – 3-1 at home this year SU with only loss a 1 pointer allowing comeback to UVA. Was on a 3-0 ATS dog run before non-cover at NC St last week. Have won 2 SU as dogs (UCF, FSU and nearly won at WF). Did not pull any upsets in 5 chances last year. QB banged up?
-vs-
Clemson – Still haven’t really earned a cover. Several almost losses in ACC play (GT 6 pt game, BC 6 pt game, Cuse 3 pt game, lost vs NC St 6 pt game and won FSU in what was really a 4 pt game). Why can't they almost or actually lose again?


Wake Forest +115 – Have survived a couple close calls, like FG at buzzer vs Louisville and surviving Syracuse in OT. Beat Army in a whipsaw game. Was +13 last year and backdoored, WF D allowed 742 yards which was a school record for Heels. Roles reversed this year, WF is the team that comes in rolling, but aren’t getting the same line respect UNC did last year. This game is non-ACC game, so win/loss here won’t count for conference standings. NC State on deck.
-at-
North Carolina – Losing losing record vs Power 5 teams, 3-4. Have failed to cover 4 of last 5 (all but last week were TD+ favs, last week 3.5 pt dog). UNC played fairly well last week outside of a couple key swing plays. Put up most yards on ND than any other team, but Notre Dame had their most yards gained on UNC as well! Pitt on deck.


Tulane +400 – Did Tulane get some things figured out last week? Hope so because were dismal in prior 5 games getting absolutely blown out. But played Cincy tough and only lost by 19 after playing closer than that. Could be a little bounce in this team.
-at-
Central Florida – looks to be a good fade as favorite, UCF has lost 2 straight up as fav and started the season 0-4 ATS as favorite, but note they have covered the last 2 as favs beating Memphis 24-7 and Temple 49-7. Not sure we can use previous years in this year’s game, but UCF failed to cover in 2020 and 2019 vs Tulane. SMU on deck.



Bad Candidates:

Duke +850 Only been in one ACC game this year 27-31 loss to GT (+4) where Duke led and allowed comeback. In 3 other ACC games Duke was outscored 14-131 (UNC, UVA, WF). Duke has lost 9 of 10 in the series and 5 straight.
-vs-
Pitt – Lost twice this year as favorites (WMich and Miami). Could be flat off Miami loss? Lost two ACC games as favorites last year (NCSt and BC). Also lost two ACC games as favs in 2019. UNC on deck.


Louisiana Tech +425 – Fading second half of season so far, lost 4 straight SU including 2 as favorites. Only scored 39 pts last 3 games combined. 3-1 ATS as dogs this year with only dog spread miss home vs UTSA. Do have narrow losses as dogs (Miss St+20.5 lost by 1 missed FG at end, SMU+11 lost on hailmary with :00, NC St +18 lost by 7). Last year LT upset them +13 in OT!
-at-
UAB – traditionally unbeatable in old stadium, but just 1-2 SU in new stadium, lost last game here vs Rice as 24pt favorite! Prior to last year’s loss in the series, UAB had won the last 3, but only covered 1. UAB off bye and likely remember last year's game.


Georgia Southern +800 – 2-2 ATS in Sun Belt play, but no upset wins and fired coach a few weeks back and failed to cover last two. Beat Coastal in 2018 and 2019, but a lot is different now compared to then. Georgia Southern is probably a team that is hard to gameplan for right now, but Ga So also doesn’t have many pieces or do much well.
-vs-
Coastal Carolina – Was rolling covering 4 of first 5 as big favorites before dropping last 2 ATS and lost at App St two weeks ago. Closer than some expected game last week vs Troy might create more focused effort here.


Not Sure:

Rutgers +400 – No upset wins in 3 chances this year (all vs top 10 teams though). Only lost by 7 at Michigan, but by 14 at Northwestern for hard to predict team. Pulled 3 upsets last year (MSU, Pur, Mary) and nearly beat Mich and Neb last year also.
-vs-
Wisconsin – Won 4 straight after opening 1-3 and playing in “playoff mode”. 2-0 on Big Ten road winning 24-0 and 30-13. Offense can be easy to want to fade, defense still tight.


Northwestern +400 – Won 4 of last 5 vs Iowa! Only 1-3 ATS as dog this year, but the 1 win was a home upset of Rutgers catching 2.5. Been noncompetitive vs MSU, Duke (came back 2nd H), Neb, Mich and Minn. Season resembles 2019 when NW actually went 3-8-1 ATS with no covers as home dog and only 1 upset, somehow dogged 7 vs Illinois that year.
-vs-
Iowa – Amazing that NW has won 4 of last 5, I’m sure Hawkeye players fully aware. NW won last year 21-20, but last time NW was bad in 2019 Iowa won 20-0 in Evanston. Off -3 turnover game at Wisconsin where they got destroyed. On 2 game losing streak. Last time they lost 3 straight it was at the hands of NW in 2018! Total Offense ranked dead last, 14th in Big Ten 291.5 ypg. Minnesota on deck.


South Florida +425 – USF disappointed several last game at ECU with backup QB. Before that nearly upset Tulsa and beat Temple 34-14. Had covered 3 of 4 prior to dropping ECU and the loss in there was a game vs SMU that was close for 3 Q.
-vs-
Houston – Last two in the series 2018 and 2020 have been UH beat downs 113-57! Possible for Cougs to be flat off big SMU win vs team they have pounded? UH is 0-2 ATS as favs of 13 or more vs FBS this year.


Indiana +800 – ZERO wins vs Power 5 teams this year. New QB last week vs porous Maryland D did show life. They used to play D here, but have allowed 38 last week and 54 to OSU (guess hard to kock them for that). Still were solid D unit before prior two weeks, notably playing MSU tough and led Cincinnati at HT in what seems like another season ago now.
-vs-
Michigan – Could be flat of letting 16pt lead split away in East Lansing. Fact that Indiana beat them badly 38-21 last year likely has Michigan’s attention here. Penn State on deck.


Illinois +500 – Hard team to put finger on. Lose to Rutgers, beat Penn State, shut out vs Wisconsin, trail Charlotte at halftime – those last 4 games. 4-3 ATS as underdog with 2 upset wins (Nebraska, PSU). ILL couldn’t run on Rutgers last week and allowed 230 (4.5). Hard to use past seasons much with this year’s team, were dominated more than final score last year vs Minn.
-at-
Minnesota – Down their top 2 RBs and 3 RBs overall, they just keep going, ran for 308 (5.8) on NW last week (outgained NW by 200 yards). Min will never live down being upset by BGSU, but they are trying, winning and covering their last 4. Have Iowa on deck, which is a huge game.
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pretty surprised wake is dogs, dunno what to think of that? Does wake have the defensive lineman that can disrupt vs a very poor unc pass blocking oline?

as ive mentioned a few times already my concern with Ville is Cunningham did not look good at all after hurting his ankle last week. he wasnt even on initial injury report i saw which dont mean much in ncaa, he tough as hell so im sure he will play but no way to know if he will be effective? it wasnt just the fact he couldnt run much after getting hurt last week but his already shaky accuracy took a huge hit, he was missing wide open wr's by a lot! im pretty confident ville defense will keep them in it but cant trust them to score if cunningham isnt 100%, he the entire offense. If he is healthy think i would be more interested in a ville 1st half play, they have been atrocious in the 4th qrtr throughout acc play!!


soon as i saw the gtech line i instantly thought i would like them, that usually means i should take a step back and look way closer tho! Canes are a different team with Van Dyke at qb! Crazy as it sounds they might just be the best team in the acc right now!! they are no doubt gonna score all over a tech d that struggles defending the pass. i suspect simms will be able to do damage running around but we dont have a lot of examples of canes facing mobile qbs, Howell did go for almost 100 yards on the ground vs them. im not sure that 63 total is high enough?

i had duke circled in this game for weeks but that was expecting pitt to handle business vs clemson and Miami! After losing to canes im not as confident in them sleepwalking here.

i clearly have no idea on wiscy as they started winning after i decided i would never bet them! lol.. I still dont think they any good, Mertz is just too bad!! dunno how rutgers moves the ball tho?

NW was another game i been eyeing for weeks but that was with the assumption Iowa didnt get whipped by wiscy or lost the game prior. Now im not as sure, taking the points def seems like the right thing to do as i usually think it is when getting dd vs iowa!! just not sure i see the upset anymore?


South flordia beat themselves with terrible play calling last week, for some inexplicable reason they totally abandon the run game when they still had a small lead no less!!! they were having a ton of success on the ground vs ECU yet they put it in the backup qb hands and they blew not only a game they could have won but a cover that was never in doubt until they started dropping back to throw over and over in the 4th qrtr! dunno if i trust them?
 
2daBank said:
South flordia beat themselves with terrible play calling last week, for some inexplicable reason they totally abandon the run game when they still had a small lead no less!!! they were having a ton of success on the ground vs ECU yet they put it in the backup qb hands and they blew not only a game they could have won but a cover that was never in doubt until they started dropping back to throw over and over in the 4th qrtr! dunno if i trust them?
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You can't really dwell on that can you though? I mean USF is going to attempt passes. We should want them to mix them in, because after keying on the run, it should open up some big play potential outside. Back up QB or not, he has to be able to play the position, make reads and throws. First drive of the game they passed 5 of the first 7 plays. Sometimes it is about breaking tendencies and keeping your opponent off balance and maybe it sets the next play up.

They ran of 4 of 6 plays that possession before the one INT, so totally abandoning the run isn't accurate.

Coaches have things they want to do for whatever reason they want to do them, players have to execute. Who knows, maybe if they run that play instead USF fumbles ? It's water under the bridge and I don't think it is fair to boil games, or losses, down to moments like that. To say you can't trust them because they decided to throw passes seems misguided.
 
Approx next 1/3 of games

Good Candidates:

Liberty +310 – Hugh Freeze returns to Ole Miss! Liberty not quite the same this season, lost at Syracuse and at ULM each by 3. Beat UAB on the road in only dog role this year. Up and down season, feels like the game they have been waiting for all season, or they are just off from last year’s standard?
-at-
Ole Miss – Have not been upset this year, but had some close calls vs Arkansas and Tennessee. Lost twice in 2020 as 1.5 pt favorites. In Auburn-Texas A&M sandwich.

South Carolina +650 – No Doty at QB makes this tougher to envision. They’ve lost by 30 to aTm and 25 to Vols in recent weeks and were a whisker away from losing to Vandy. Did play UK tougher than some expected and Florida not world beaters this year.
-vs-
Florida – South Carolina’s play doesn’t make this pick desirable, but Florida’s play does. Gators just .500 with some uninspiring play (LSU) while finding ways to get blown out (Georgia), all while losing to UK and not covering as big favorites vs FAU and USF. Nothing really to like about this team, but are they bad enough to lose straight up to this Carolina bunch? UF O in this game under Mullen has been incredibly consistent scoring 35 in 2018, 38 in 2019 and 38 in 2020 while allowing an average of 27ppg to SC.


Bad:

Tulsa +1000 - Doesn’t appear positioned as well as they were last year to push Cincy. Last year Tulsa was tied with Cincy in the 4th Q as 14 pt dog in AAC title game. Tulsa struggles as a favorite, but has history of playing tough as big dog; covers vs OkSt, OhioSt this year and OkSt, UCF and Cincy last year. This year’s team isn’t as good though.
-at-
Cincinnati – undefeated, but not as impressive as people might expect. Don’t often play a complete 4 quarter game with underwhelming final scores on occasion. Might think the “need” an impressive win, but could’ve said the same thing last two noncovering wins vs Navy and Tulane. Good thing for Cincy, this Tulsa team not as strong as past editions. Might Bearcats play with a chip on shoulder? Or might they try and force things to try and force things causing mistakes?

Kansas +1100 – Trying to pick the week that Kansas might play a good game is one thing. Trying to pick when they are going to win? It’s not worth it, trust me, I’ve tried (Duke).
-vs-
Kansas State – Have won 12 in a row vs KU

Temple +500 – Can they stop this losing streak? Scored a total of 27 points last 3 games while being outscored by 37 ppg! Not sure what is going on with them, bad last year, bad this year. Carey officially has ruined it a once kinda-solid program. Did pull upset vs Memphis as 11 pt dog, but that is their only dog cover, 1-5 ATS!
-vs-
East Carolina – back-to-back weeks of being TD+ favorite uncharted territory for still hard to trust ECU (turnovers and sacks allowed). Did beat Temple 28-3 last year (think bunch of covid scratches right before kickoff that delayed start hindered Temple). ECU actually has winning record this year 5-3 and could have their first winning season since 2014.

Colorado +330 – Unlikely, but did gain their second best ypp (5.4) vs FBS this year last week at Oregon. O still have to be worrisome and reason this doesn’t look likely. CU incredibly consistent losing by 22 to ASU, 23 to USC, 23 to Cal and 23 to Oregon!
-vs-
Oregon State – Beavers having trouble with consistency 5-3 SU, but alternating wins-losses the last 4 weeks. Have lost SU 2-of-3 as PAC 12 favorites this year.

USC +270 – No Drake London is likely a big deal (led P5 WRs with 88 catches for 1084y) and he accounted for 45% of USC’s receiving yards. USC dogged 7.5 at ND and lost by 15 blowing several scoring trips near the RZ and coming away empty, that was with London though. All 4 of USC’s losses this year have come by DD.
-at-
Arizona State – WTF was that last week? -5 turnovers vs Wazzou in 13 pt home loss! Rough last 6 quarters for ASU now with more coaching questions and turmoil (Antonio Pierce?). This is a troubled and undisciplined underachieving team…sounds like USC! USC has 4 DD losses, ASU has 3. Tight series the last 3 being decided by just 9 points total. ASU blew lead last year.

Southern Miss +175 – Hard to find a worse team this season. Scoring O #130, Rush O #126, Pass Rating O #127. Have been held under 20 every FBS game this year. D was respectable early in the season, but is starting to trend the wrong way. Closest loss they’ve had this season is 5, lost by DD in all others.
-vs-
North Texas – Weak favorite, but have played good in some spots. Come in covering 4 of last 5 and off OT win vs Rice. Played Liberty tough for 1st H. NT as a road fav is unheard of since Fine left. Only other role was 2020 finale, a 2 pt win at UTEP laying 10.

Missouri +5500 – Missouri beating Georgia would be the upset of the century! Bazelak’s status in question. Better Missouri teams have played a good half here or there vs UGA, but those all ended up in blowout UGA wins. Hard to see this Mizzou team competing at all, 0-4 ATS vs SEC. Missouri is in fact 0-8 ATS this season!
-at-
Georgia – Dawgs unlikely to show weakness vs this kind of team. Beat Mizzou 7 straight with last 4 by 14+ points. In Florida / Tennessee sandwich.

Arkansas State +800 – Playing a little better, but still a pushover. Was surprisingly in the game at ULL only losing by 1! Otherwise lost every other Sun Belt game by DD.
-at-
App State – Only history of losing as big favorite was twice to Georgia Southern 2018 and 2019, but those GoSo teams had winning records.

Nebraska +500 – Huskers continually find ways to lose games yet also continually find themselves to be in close games vs highly ranked teams. Perplexing team. Bye on deck.
-vs-
Ohio State – Have beat Nebraska 52-17, 48-7, 36-31, 56-14, 62-3 the last 5 in series. Just one close game among them. OSU appears suited to be able to do similar this year.

Not Sure:

TCU +210 – Difficult time to back the Frogs, not sure how this is going to turn out. Patterson showed up Monday, the day after he was let go, to speak with coaches about the upcoming game plan vs Baylor!? 3 game losing streak, all by DD and only covered 1-6 ATS on the year.
-vs-
Baylor – Stand at impressive 7-1, but just 1-2 ATS on the road this year, only cover coming against Kansas. Have lost 5 of the last 6 vs TCU with only win coming in 3 OT!

New Mexico State +650 – Have covered 3 straight (San Jose, Nev, Haw), avg 31ppg in those, but allowed 46ppg. 5-2 ATS as dog this year. Off bye week.
-vs-
Utah State – Unbeaten on road so far, 3-0 (2 upsets), 3 upset wins as dogs overall, only favored twice this year, 1-1 ATS (close win vs UNLV, blowout win vs Hawaii).

Maryland +330 – Traditionally a tough game for Terps, except last year they wiped the floor with Nits in Happy Valley as 27pt dogs! Only SU win this year as dog was week 1 vs WVU. Otherwise been outscored by 34 ppg in other dog roles! Only 2-5 ATS vs FBS this year. Last week was perhaps their best offensive game of year vs Indiana.
-vs-
Penn State – 3 game losing streak (Iowa, ILL, OSU). PSU is 14-1 at Maryland, only loss 1961! O held to 24 pts or less 5x this season. Michigan on deck, but feels like PSU can’t look ahead.
 
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s--k said:
You can't really dwell on that can you though? I mean USF is going to attempt passes. We should want them to mix them in, because after keying on the run, it should open up some big play potential outside. Back up QB or not, he has to be able to play the position, make reads and throws. First drive of the game they passed 5 of the first 7 plays. Sometimes it is about breaking tendencies and keeping your opponent off balance and maybe it sets the next play up.

They ran of 4 of 6 plays that possession before the one INT, so totally abandoning the run isn't accurate.

Coaches have things they want to do for whatever reason they want to do them, players have to execute. Who knows, maybe if they run that play instead USF fumbles ? It's water under the bridge and I don't think it is fair to boil games, or losses, down to moments like that. To say you can't trust them because they decided to throw passes seems misguided.
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i agree no reason to dwell on it but when i see really bad playcalling it does give me pause going forward, i havnt even tried to cap this game yet but think it makes it tougher when im trying to identify advantages if i cant trust the coaching staff to exploit them. NCst is a great example of this, i hate dealing with them because far too often they take the ball out of their set of great rb hands and let a average at best qb throw it 40+ times! i wouldnt say it misguided to worry when i think they put themselves in a awful position in that game, it was their own doing not something that was forced. there plenty of reasons they didnt win but the reason they didnt cover was not just the one pass that was a pick 6 but then after giving up the lead never really trying to re-establish the run. ever since seeing NCst play at messy st i have had reservations about them and it has certainly rang true in several of their games going forward so i think it often more prudent than misguided.. could be a overreaction specifically for usf cause i havnt seen them enough to know if it should be a concern or not, unlike ncst and others that i have.
 
Here is the summary so far after setting the table about 2/3 through the schedule.

So far in the Good category I've posted:

Edit - see post #32 for full list as updated.


Some teams from the good category will lose. Teams from the bad category could win. Teams from the Not sure / maybe category need moved one place or the other. I just touched on some notes for these teams. There is way more that goes into it than that. What do we think?


2dabank questions Rutgers, NW and USF, which I get.

Trying to see what we agree on.

JRock I think would vote to move Illinois to the good. Think he wants to like Georgia State.

Booksbestfriend likes Wake.

Tahoe likes Wake and had leaned Rutgers, but is fading Bear.

I need to get to the rest of the candidates yet to complete the slate and our overall picture.
 
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Certainly not saying I hate any those 3.

In NW case it just I don’t like as much for them as I did before iowa lost 2 in a row, I had been eying that game as a potential upset for weeks! Now I’m just not as confident, still think NW w the points is only way to go. Assuming they stay within number certainly not the worst thing to have a little the ml.

I just said I dunno how Rutgers scores, I dunno if wiscy will score either! I’m just out on trying to figure wiscy out. Their d too good for me to fade anymore but their offense too terrible to bet them!

Havnt even looked at USF, just raised a concern, lol.

I really like Nebraska with the points but these Mf’ers don’t know how to win. I’ll take more than 2 tds all day cause I still have huge question marks about osu d, they haven’t seen another legit run game since being gashed the 1st 2 weeks. zone read and rpo were the things that shredded them in both those games, I think Nebraska runs that same stuff with Martinez don’t they? I think corn can absolutely make this a game, just impossible to trust them to actually win even if it is a one possession game late!!
 
Very good point about the style of O Nebraska can bring with the run game and how OSU did struggle against it and how we haven't yet see if they've improved against a team who can run it well. I'll be honest, I have ML'd Nebraska before against OSU and my ass still hurts. There is no history that it can happen. I know you said with the points, but even then, OSU normally kicks their ass up and down the field all game long. But maybe this year is different.

I was saying, by you questioning, you were just raising some issues and those teams have them. I have questions also. We all do. Finding teams who aren't supposed to win is hard!

I want to spend more time on the Iowa-NW game. Strange feeling about that Rutgers game. Definitely see low scoring defensive battle, the style that every Wisconsin game is played vs similar opponents.
 
s--k said:
Liberty at Ole Miss
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Hugh Freeze returns to Ole Miss. Not sure that will fire up anyone but Freeze. None of the Ole Miss players were even there when he was the coach

Still, Liberty will probably be more motivated just because they are playing an SEC team
 
Georgia Tech - gonna take my chances here Miami has some sort of letdown after the win last week.
Georgia State - the Peach State duo are my top 2....State took ULL into OT last year and this year's team has not played as well as that team last year...it's worth a shot IMHO.
Temple - I don't trust ECU....period. This is a game Temple can compete in and possibly win.
MTSU - rivalry game anything can happen between these schools
Illinois - they should regain this week some of mo lost by last week's letdown...still have not read any recent flaming comments by Bielema but hopefully he still has that locker room from the Penn St. win.

I think I'm stuck on these 5.
 
s--k said:
Very good point about the style of O Nebraska can bring with the run game and how OSU did struggle against it and how we haven't yet see if they've improved against a team who can run it well. I'll be honest, I have ML'd Nebraska before against OSU and my ass still hurts. There is no history that it can happen. I know you said with the points, but even then, OSU normally kicks their ass up and down the field all game long. But maybe this year is different.

I was saying, by you questioning, you were just raising some issues and those teams have them. I have questions also. We all do. Finding teams who aren't supposed to win is hard!

I want to spend more time on the Iowa-NW game. Strange feeling about that Rutgers game. Definitely see low scoring defensive battle, the style that every Wisconsin game is played vs similar opponents.
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im a little worried if we can trust Nebraska to still be all in? up to this point they have continued bouncing back off losing winnable games and gave good effort vs the better teams (they are very Detroit lions in this way), at some point tho do they just mail it in? that and of course Martinez propensity for being a freaking turnover machine, either one those things and they get boat raced.

i wouldnt mind fading wiscy again but man, last week was the 1st big10 game rutgers even managed 20 and that against illini, before that it was 7 against NW and a string of 13 point games vs good defenses but prob not as good as wiscy d. do badgers really still control their destiny to get to big10 champ game? i think i heard that, seems crazy as they have felt out of it all year! lol.. that right there enough for me to prob stay away from rutgers. regardless what i think of the badgers it could be argued they playing best on that side, gophers vs them could decide who goes to title game! that be cool i guess.
 
i really havnt found a lot of dogs i like as of yet.. UL monroe is interesting, not sure why they dogs to texas state? they both really bad but ULM has some nice upset wins while texas state has only beaten a few really bad teams, of course ulm could maybe be put in that category this a super ugly game, i wouldnt even watch if i did bet, but not sure the right team is favored?

Auburn for sure with the points imo, if they gonna stay within 4 the ml makes sense too. both these teams playing good ball but i think auburn has proven more than the aggies. i think both teams gonna have a hard time running the ball and it sound crazy but i trust Nix more than AM qb.
 
I'm just staying away from Wisconsin games. I'm 2-1 betting their games this year, won with N Dame and Penn St, but Penn State winnng that game was luck

I can't figure them out and can't predict them so I'll tune in to watch the jump around, but they are a no-bet for me
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm just staying away from Wisconsin games. I'm 2-1 betting their games this year, won with N Dame and Penn St, but Penn State winnng that game was luck

I can't figure them out and can't predict them so I'll tune in to watch the jump around, but they are a no-bet for me
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i need to be in the same boat, tough to figure them with a qb that so so bad. defense is too good to fade them tho..im sure if the wiscy/minny game is to decide who goes to get beat by osu in big10 champ im sure ill end up betting on that one, i can hold out to then at least! lol
 
Good Candidates:

Mississippi State +180 – Nice revenge tour for Miss State beating 2 of 3 teams so far this year who beat them last year (aTm and UK). Two upset wins this year (NC St and aTm). Covered 3 of last 4, only miss was Alabama. Auburn on deck.
-at-
Arkansas – Off Ark Pine Bluff last week. Nice break in action after 4 game SEC gauntlet and Hogs ran out of gas. Ark only favored once this year vs FBS, upset by Auburn 2 weeks ago. DC Barry Odom thought highly of DC circles, was easy stopping State last year, will be harder this year. LSU on deck.

Memphis +175 – Need to check QB status. Memphis only 1-4 ATS in AAC/CUSA play this year and lost 4 of last 5 straight up (only win Navy). Won 7 in a row vs SMU before SMU kick game winning FG at end game last year. Off bye week
-vs-
SMU – Has to get off the deck after losing tough one at Houston last week for first loss of year. SMU looks like strong team overall, but was involved in close game at La Tech and at Navy. Just 1-3 ATS on road.

South Alabama +160 – Nicely improved group. Favored in every game but one this season and that one dog role were +12.5 vs ULL and missed FG at the gun in 2pt loss. In state rivalry game. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS (USA has two road upset wins – last time an eventual 4-8 USA team beat Troy as 16pt dog).
-at-
Troy – Troy has won the last 3 in the series big including a season finale 29-0 win last year. Troy not a great favorite, just 1-4 ATS and was upset at ULM and only beat TxSt and GoSo by 3 each. Solid D, O is starting to come around as shown hanging tough at Coastal Car last week.

Rice +200 – Upset UAB in Birmingham, then lets down as short HF vs North Texas. QB Wiley Green injured. Typically competes vs teams their own size and weight class. Don’t typically pay Charlotte, but Rice is 6-0 ATS as road dog at CUSA east teams dating back to 2016 with outright wins at Marshall last year and at MTSU 2019!
-at-
Charlotte – upward ascent from early season success stuck in neutral now after blowout losses to FAU and WKU. D is a problem, and now so is the O. Went with backup QB last week as Reynolds injured hand/finger.

West Virginia +145 – Off home upset of Iowa State, but were upset prior home game by Texas Tech for 2-1 SU home record vs FBS. Last year WVU was 4-0 home vs FBS including an OT win as short dog to Baylor. Only outgained by 11y last year in Stillwater but lost 13-27.
-vs-
Oklahoma State – have won 6 straight in series, couple big runs last year put Pokes up 14-0 before WV tried to comeback. Previous two in 2018 and 2019 were one score games. OkSt have covered 6 straight! 2-1 SU on the road with lone loss a close one at ISU.

ULM +155 – One of the upset darlings this year with 3 big dog wins! Brought back down to earth last week at App St (trailed 7-49 HT). Still enters here 4-4 SU! Won 4 straight in series 2016-2019 before losing by 21 last week despite almost 50y edge.
-at-
Texas State – QB switch felt like it had to come, McBride was turnover machine, but previously competent Vitt forgot how to play (6-13-42-0-1, team shut out). TxSt as a favorite? Rare. Lost vs Incarnate Word, Spavital is 0-3-1 ATS as home fav.

Texas +200 – Lost SU by 7 in both dog roles this year (0-2 ATS). 3 game ATS losing streak. Lost the last two in series, but by just 3 and 2 pts.
-at-
Iowa State – Clones have been upset 3x this year. 1-3 ATS at home with only cover vs Kansas. Beat UNI by 6, lost to Iowa by 10, beat Ok St by 3. Close games continue to be general rule for ISU vs Big Xll teams not named Kansas, 14 of last 22 decided by 1 score or less (4 of 5 this year).

Purdue +130 – Purdue has pulled upsets in 2 of their last 3 games. Purdue pass game should have edge vs MSU D. MSU last in B1G yards allowed passing per game and allow 62% completions. Purdue completes 70% for over 300 ypg. Purdue D should be ok.
-vs-
Michigan State – won 8 straight in series although they don’t meet often. Could strange games among their unbeaten record such as beating Indiana by just 5 and improbable OT win vs Nebraska. Off Michigan win.

Auburn +170 – Covered 3 of last 4, only miss vs UGA. Pulled two upsets this year (LSU and Ark) while playing Penn St tough in a noncovering road loss. Tigers are 4-0 SU in College Station as SEC members, strange home team is just 1-8 SU overall. Auburn has won 3 of last 4 in series overall.
-at-
Texas A&M – Upset of Alabama has been springboard, on 3-0 ATS run, but last two vs over matched foes (Mizzou and South Carolina). Off bye. Have been upset twice this year (Ark and MissSt).

MTSU +600 – Covered 3 of last 4 including upset win vs Marshall as 11pt dog! Have not played as well on the road, just 0-3-1 ATS. “100 Miles of Hate” TIGHT series. MTSU won by 19 in 2018. Outside of that, the other four games have been decided by total of 12 pts with 2 going to OT! Underdog is 7-3 with 4 outright wins in last 10 games! MTSU might be on who was their 3rd string QB to start the season, but he played well last week (albeit vs Southern Miss)
-at-
Western Kentucky – Has won 5 of last 6 in series, but haven’t covered 3 straight. Highest scoring team in CUSA 40ppg.

Washington +220 – Have played better the last 6 quarters, but still a long ways away from being good. UW may have chip on shoulder as they technically won the North last year, but due to covid, Oregon represented the division. It was a theme all offseason and if Washington can salvage anything from this season, a win here might be it. DNP last year. 2019 and 2018 decided by total of 7 pts including an OT game.
-vs-
Oregon – Finally a blow out win, although it was just vs Colorado. Last 4 games this year were all close, even vs Arizona that was just a 5pt game entering the 4th Q. So close games had been rule for Ducks before last week. Only 1-4 ATS in PAC 12 play.

Wyoming +150 – 4 game losing streak and lost 5 straight ATS! Found some O last week after scoring just 17 pts the previous 3 games. Had 4 game win streak in series snapped last year. Border War!
-vs-
Colorado State – Another tough loss last week vs Boise when CSU led 16-7 HT but were outscored 3-21 2nd H vs Boise. Week prior mismanaged FGA that would’ve beat USU. Have allowed 52pts the last 2 games after only allowing 51 the previous 4 games combined.


Bad Candidates:

Arizona +400 – Zona getting closer, great 1st H vs Washington, played very respectable at USC last week. 3-2 ATS in PAC12 play. 20 game losing streak.
-vs-
California – 3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU after bye with near win at Oregon. O has gotten better each week. Were upset twice this year vs Nevada and Washington State. USC on deck.

UTEP +350 – 6-2 SU! Covered 5 straight ATS! But still struggle vs the better teams (lost at Boise by 41 and trailed FAU by 18 before making a comeback late). Pulled two upsets this year (NMex and LaTech).
-vs-
UTSA – 8-0 and searching for respect! Road wins of 45-16 at LaTech, 52-46 at WKU, 31-28 at Memphis and 37-30 at Illinois! Impressive team! Have beat UTEP 4 straight.

LSU +1800 – lost 3 of last 4 straight up, only beat Florida in that span.
-at-
Alabama – won 8 out of last 9 vs LSU by 38, 29, 14, 10, 14, 7, 21 and 4. One team is heading the wrong direction.

San Jose State +310 – Covered 3 straight after staring season 0-5 ATS. Back-to-back wins 27-20 at UNLV and 27-21 vs Wyoming. Have not pulled any upsets.
-at-
Nevada – Pack responded off tough Fresno loss to blow rival UNLV out. Were a 2pt road fav at Kansas State for their only upset loss of season. Looking for revenge, this is rematch of last year’s MWC Title game. Nevada led 20-7 at halftime, but lost 20-30.

Hawaii +250 – Just 2-4 ATS as dog, but did upset Fresno here (+4 INTs). Also beat San Diego State last time on the islands (-3). Hawaii run D is really bad.
-vs-
San Diego State – Off first loss of season to Fresno. Were upset twice last year (San Jose and Nevada) but beat Hawaii by 24 (-10). Have only faced one quality passing attack and Haener went for 300y on them.


Not sure/maybe:

Navy +900 – On run covering 5 of last 6 since dismal first two games to start season. Beat Tulsa last week, played Cincy tough, nearly beat SMU, beat UCF and played Houston tough. Only bad game in this mix was Memphis. Navy D more consistent than O at this point, but it’s getting better. Bye on deck.
-at-
Notre Dame – Playing third straight home game. Beat Navy by 32 and 22 last two in series (2019 and 18). Tough gear change after pass happy USC and UNC Os to the grinding play in phone booth with cut-blocking Navy team. Big defensive edge if Irish are prepped and ready for it.

Boise State +180 – alternating wins-losses ATS the last 7 games! Covered last week. Boise actually better on the road, 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU. Don’t play in regular season much.
-at-
Fresno – have won 2 of last 3 in series. Lost as 11 pt fav at Hawaii, 4-1 SU in MWC play although just 2-3 ATS

UNLV +105 – 14 game losing streak, but were showing improved play before 20-51 set back at Nevada. Were involved in 4 straight one score games prior to that. Don’t play often, but road team has won the last 4
-at-
New Mexico – Off bye and off first win and cover of season 14-3 at Wyoming. 0-5 ATS off bye week last 5 years. These are the two worst offenses in the MWC.

Florida International +125 – Only 1 cover vs FBS this year and lost by DD in 5 of 7 games and 8 of their last 10 losses have been by DD.
-vs-
Old Dominion – Got first FBS win last week after playing some close games vs Buffalo, Marshall and UTEP. Haven’t been road favorite since 2019 and lost 2 of 3 SU.

FAU +100 – alternating wins-losses ATS the last 5 weeks, but just 2-3 SU in that span.
-vs-
Marshall – have won 3 straight in series. Have been upset 2x this season and nearly lost a 3rd vs ODU.

Tennessee now pick’em
 
My Good Candidates:

Eastern Michigan+ 280 at Toledo
Ohio +240 vs Miami
Northern Illinois +170 at Kent
Central Michigan +305 at Western Michigan
Georgia State +340 at ULL
Boston College +135 vs VT
Army +125 n Air Force
Florida State +115 vs NC State
Georgia Tech +313 at Miami
Louisville +165 vs Clemson
USF +425 vs Houston
Wake +115 at UNC
Tulane +400 at UCF
Liberty +310 at Ole Miss
Maryland +330 vs Penn St
New Mexico State +650 vs Utah St
South Carolina +650 vs Florida
Mississippi State +180 at Arkansas
Memphis +175 vs SMU
South Alabama +160 at Troy
Rice +200 at Charlotte
West Virginia +145 vs Oklahoma State
ULM +155 at Texas State
Texas +200 at Iowa State
Purdue +130 vs Michigan State
Auburn +170 at Texas A&M
MTSU +600 at WKU
Washington +220 vs Oregon
Wyoming +150vs Colorado State
FAU +100 vs Marshall
Boise State +180 at Fresno State
UNLV +105 at New Mexico
FIU +125 vs ODU

My Bad Candidates:

Akron +750 vs Ball St
Stanford +260 vs Utah
Duke +850 vs Pitt
Rutgers +400 vs Wisconsin
Northwestern +400 vs Iowa
LaTech +425 at UAB
Indiana +800 at Michigan
Georgia Southern +800 vs Coastal Car
Illinois +500 at Minnesota
Tulsa +1000 at Cincinnati
Kansas +1100 vs Kansas St
Temple +500 vs ECU
TCU +210 vs Baylor
Colorado +330 vs Oregon St
USC +270 at Arizona State
Southern Miss +175 vs North Texas
Missouri +5500 at Georgia
Arkansas State +800 at App State
Nebraska +500 vs Ohio State
Navy +900 at Notre Dame
Arizona +400 vs Cal
UTEP +350 vs UTSA
LSU +1800 at Alabama
San Jose +310 at Nevada
Hawaii +250 vs San Diego State

Not Sure / Maybe:









So that is all the games. Tennessee is pick'em now. That was pretty time consuming. I will be interested to see what happens. I expect most of the upsets will come from the good list. A couple might come from the bad list. I don't know how or if I can sort all the not sure / maybe games into one of the categories or the other.
 
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I played:

Liberty (+310 small) —> don’t question’s Corral’s heart, but do question his health. Pretty ugly sandwich spot here. If Liberty was coached by any human other than Freeze, this would be a bigger bet for me. Don’t think ole miss overlooks or lets down, just might not take them super seriously.

Middle Tenn St (+525 small) —> as much as i love the pace and offensive attack from the hilltoppers, they are just not executing well in the last few games. MT figures to have some success getting pressure and maybe getting home, averaging almost 2 sacks/game. They will need to sustain some drives, which they should be able to do since wku gives up almost 50% 3rd down conversion on D. Don’t think these two teams are this far apart…

Texas (+205 small-med) —> just a play on a number. Texas has better yds/play and offensive/defensive yds/pt vs a much more difficult schedule.

West Va (+155 small-med) —> like playing teams as a home underdog the week after winning as a dog. Ok St nothing special on offense with solid D. Should be a rock fight, and think there will be some more couches burning sat night.

Memphis (+175 medium) —> SMU had their bubble burst last week. I think i would be on memphis here, with or without that situation. SMU secondary figures to get shredded here (as does memphis’). Just think mem gets up for the big bad mustangs, jumps out early, and hangs on late.

USC (+270 medium) —> usc one of just a handful of teams to have outgained every opponent, except one, this year (exception game-oregon st 535-431 yd adv, usc threw 3 picks and lost 2 fumbles), yet they have somehow turned that into a 4-4 record. Comparable yds/play here with usc having played the tougher schedule. Not sure how herm’s squad responds to having the conf championship goals all but lost last week in a very uncharacteristic sloppy home loss, a game where they threw 2 picks and lost 3 fumbles.

Hawaii (+250 medium) —> sd st had their bubble burst last week also. Now they have to cross the pacific and get back up. No real numbers here, purely situational. Hawaii pretty good as home dogs >7 pts…just a hunch

Wake (+125 med-large) —> prove it game for me. I have seen both teams play multiple times this year. UNC had to prove to me they can play a complete game for a full 60 mins. I know all about the unranked favorite vs ranked team angle (think it was around 60%+ at time), but idgaf. The wrong team is favored here, and i gotta pay to see it.

Purdue (+130 med-large) —> partly situation for obv letdown spot. Partly matchup, which figures to be semi-successful for sparty off MO vs purdue D and figures for purdue to be very successful through the air vs sparty D. If mcnamara can do that to them, I can’t wait to see what brohm and co. will do to these guys. Still think sparty is semi-fraudulent. Not they they aren’t good, but they aren’t one of the four best teams in the country. I think Purdue blows them out.


Leans I havent played yet, but will most likely throw a nickel or two on…

Indiana (maybe 1H ML play)
Navy (playing better lately, worth a shot)
LSU (just too big of a number for this rivalry)
Miss St (playing very well lately, and arky may have peaked too soon)
Auburn (still have my doubts about A&M and still stand by my statement that at the end of the year, we will look back and see they are closer to the team that beat colorado 10-7, lost to arky 20-10, and lost at home to ms st 26-22 than they are to the team that beat bama {huge outlier game}. Missed the best number, so might me small ML play only here unless it goes back up)
 
Looks of good stuff there!

Trying to get games off that maybe list.

I'm going to have to put Illinois, Rutgers, Northwestern and Indiana on the bad list. Which, I'm not saying they can't or won't win, just that the case to be made to support them doing so is not strong enough. Points is one thing, winning? That's another.

Illinois high water mark for points scored in their last 7 games is 24 on Charlotte. Their avg scoring output vs P5 over that span is just 12ppg and that includes the OT game. Now, maybe both teams combine in the 30s and ILL can somehow win an ugly 17-14 game. That is possible. But counting on Illini to beat a hot Minnesota team...only real reason to fade Minnesota this week would be Floyd on deck and that is one trophy PJ Fleck and crew has never won yet and it matters to them.

Rutgers, as was pointed out, how is Rutgers going to score on Wisconsin D? Rutgers averages under 14ppg vs P5 teams and Wisconsin is allowing just 8.5 ppg since the Michigan game. Again, maybe some weird game that Rutgers wins like 15 to 13 or something. Definitely think this could be a weird game, and I might even still throw $10 on it for the heck of it. But what I'm trying to do is use some logic on where and who the upsets might be. Logic does not say this is one of them.

Northwestern is the same thing as Illinois and Rutgers and again, maybe it is some weird 10-9 game. And Iowa's O is bad, very very bad. But the NW O is very very bad and something else, the NW D is very very bad. If they have have a good game here somehow they could be in the game. But logic doesn't say it will be the case.

Indiana, they actually might have some offense with the new QB. Slow start at Maryland, but once they got going the O was moving. Problem is the opponent is likely going to limit that movement. Out of all these teams I am moving to the bad list, I somehow think that Indiana is the best of all of them. Not sure where the IU D went. If the IU D we knew showed up, I give them a shot to keep Michigan contained, I think. You know what, for now I'm going to leave this on the maybe list.

Edit - I put New Mexico State on the good candidate list. A lot to like about Utah State, but taking care of a team on the road as a big favorite isn't one thing we have seen and except for last week, all their other games I think creates some shadow of a doubt that they will be smooth and flawless in doing so. And if they aren't smooth and flawless New Mexico State has enough offense that they could surprise. 18 point road favorites. Wow. I mean they just waxed Hawaii and Hawaii beat New Mexico State twice, I just don't think it is going to be that easy.

The complete list I'm editing is post #32. Again, I'm not playing all these. I might even take a stab on a bad one because I like it. Just trying to see how well I can use some foresight to narrow down the more likely ones and have them win a good clip and the bad ones that will lose at a high rate.
 
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I suck at tracking things but I think the ranked dog to unranked angle has fallen off quite a bit last few years. It don’t freak me out going against like it used to. Ive hit several of the small ranked dogs this year in that spot. It def wake or nothing for me. Really like Hunts idea of wake team total over.
 
2daBank said:
I suck at tracking things but I think the ranked dog to unranked angle has fallen off quite a bit last few years. It don’t freak me out going against like it used to. Ive hit several of the small ranked dogs this year in that spot. It def wake or nothing for me. Really like Hunts idea of wake team total over.
Click to expand...

I like those kind of angles and the numbers of like 15-5 the last 20 and stuff like that. But those things I don't really follow. When I like the team and the angle applies to it, I feel better. When I like the team and the angle contradicts it, I ignore it. I'd rather take the team for my reasons then be talked out of it for other reasons and then it wins and I don't have it. I don't mind losing bets as long as I think I did it the right way. I don't always do that. I do make bad bets, that bothers me. There are lots of things I can improve at to limit bad bets. That is the struggle. I have bad habits, I assume we all have some.
 
+400 worth a shot on the Wave huh? Tough place to play, but I didn’t hate what I saw last week from them. Agree s__k they had some bounce

And I have not read your whole thread but LSU would be a waste of money which I’m sure you know haha. Thanks for these as always
 
twinkie13 said:
+400 worth a shot on the Wave huh? Tough place to play, but I didn’t hate what I saw last week from them. Agree s__k they had some bounce

And I have not read your whole thread but LSU would be a waste of money which I’m sure you know haha. Thanks for these as always
Click to expand...

It is a very small sample size and since I only gave occasional look-ins on the game live I want to revisit and read some post-op from local press.

Some people will say something like "until I see them win I can't pick them" and that is good, but then you lose the odds and return of doing it before you see it, so you have to try and foresee it.

Part of it is the UCF has dropped some games they shouldn't have and had some subpar games. That absolutely needs to happen for Tulane to have a chance. If UCF plays an A game, then Tulane won't win.

For Tulane, and Indiana and some of these teams that were disappointing, they either keep sucking, they get worse (if that's possible) and teams keep pounding them. But for Tulane and Indiana as two examples, there was enough fight and life and different-ness last week that I believe there should be some positive carry over for a game or two or even the rest of the season. Some teams will lose out, some teams will kind of salvage the season with a good finish. I hope Tulane is in that category.

I'm not putting money on LSU to win straight up. I'm almost sure I won't bet it and almost sure I won't watch a minute of it. I'd be a better bettor if I never bet against any of the top teams because I never bet on them so I should pretend they don't even exist so I'm not tempted to try and bet against them.
 
twinkie13 said:
+400 worth a shot on the Wave huh? Tough place to play, but I didn’t hate what I saw last week from them. Agree s__k they had some bounce

And I have not read your whole thread but LSU would be a waste of money which I’m sure you know haha. Thanks for these as always
Click to expand...
I gave them a look. Wish it was at home for the wave, but number wouldnt be +400. I def liked what i saw last week…just couldn’t hold onto the ball (6 to’s, 2 picks/2 lost fumbles {4 total}/2 SOD), especially in the 4q with a pick, both lost fumbles, and SOD. Maybe they turned a corner, after underperforming most of the season? Or just got up for cincy, and will now go back to sucking?!
 
That is one fear of mine too mcculran, that they played that game and now they will be flat. I guess you could say like how Kansas gave OU a game and then got blown out. But KU would've gotten blown out by OSU either way so bad example, but same kind of thing.

What I am hoping for is that these guys see what they can do vs a good team and they apply it going forward. It worded for Navy. Navy is perhaps the best example of it. Navy kids are different though.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Vols - yeah I'm worried about this one...all week long last week I read one article after another on Kentucky-based media saying how my Cats were not taking State lightly and they were going to Stark-Vegas to win...whelp that didn't happen. Yesterday I read how Stoops lit into his team and how he vows to find players that will play the way he wants them too....so yeah in theory this could be a bounce-back by my Cats but it's also more huff n puff....bottom line is 1) we've lost too many key defensive players to injury and 2) State game was 2nd game this season I watched as Brad White (DC) made absolutely zero adjustments to stop the opposing offense (Mizzou game being the other). Huff n Puff all you want coach but if you don't have the players you had at the beginning of the season and it leads you to not making any adjustments when your DC is being outcoached...well then there is no chance we slow down Heupel's offense...just another side-note...two years ago we beat a Hooker-led Hokie team in a bowl game. I wonder if he is going to be extra-motivated this week?
Click to expand...
UK was in a mjor letdown spot last week, same as Iowa. More often than not, teams that fail in that letdown spot have trouble the following week.

I'm looking hard at Northwestern and Tennessee.
 
s--k said:
I like those kind of angles and the numbers of like 15-5 the last 20 and stuff like that. But those things I don't really follow. When I like the team and the angle applies to it, I feel better. When I like the team and the angle contradicts it, I ignore it. I'd rather take the team for my reasons then be talked out of it for other reasons and then it wins and I don't have it. I don't mind losing bets as long as I think I did it the right way. I don't always do that. I do make bad bets, that bothers me. There are lots of things I can improve at to limit bad bets. That is the struggle. I have bad habits, I assume we all have some.
Click to expand...

If it wasn’t for bad habits I wouldn’t have habits!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Duke - lifeless is what I would call them last week but they are 2-0 ATS this season off a road game. Did we all back Duke on the wrong week last week?
Click to expand...
Theyre 4-0 ATS at home this year, averaging 38 points a game (albeit against weaker competition) versus 10 points a game on the road.
 
M.W. said:
Theyre 4-0 ATS at home this year, averaging 38 points a game (albeit against weaker competition) versus 10 points a game on the road.
Click to expand...

In your personal opinion, do you think there is something to it? Home vs Away? Duke losing games to UNC, UVA and WF isn't the shock. The shock is how poorly they've been vs those teams. The one common theme is it is away from home, although why would that matter so much? Those are not really hostile crowds or stadiums. I don't know myself. It seems really odd. The passing game is ok and their run game should be good.

The D has been bad everywhere though.

Home
NC A&T
Northwestern
Kansas
GT

Road
Charlotte
UNC
Virginia
Wake
 
s--k said:
In your personal opinion, do you think there is something to it? Home vs Away? Duke losing games to UNC, UVA and WF isn't the shock. The shock is how poorly they've been vs those teams. The one common theme is it is away from home, although why would that matter so much? Those are not really hostile crowds or stadiums. I don't know myself. It seems really odd. The passing game is ok and their run game should be good.

The D has been bad everywhere though.

Home
NC A&T
Northwestern
Kansas
GT

Road
Charlotte
UNC
Virginia
Wake
Click to expand...

it so hard to say, it could simply be a comfort issue with being at home in normal routine. i know ive seen pitchers over the years who were inexplicably better home, sometimes away. never was any real good explanation i heard for most of them (other than grienke early in his career having anxiety issues). could just be fluky or could be some silly explanation that makes no sense!
 
M.W. said:
Theyre 4-0 ATS at home this year, averaging 38 points a game (albeit against weaker competition) versus 10 points a game on the road.
Click to expand...

depends where you got the gtech number, opened at -2.5 which gtech covered, crept up to 4.5 throughout week, gtech won by 4 so only the late buyers on duke won.
 
M.W. said:
UK was in a mjor letdown spot last week, same as Iowa. More often than not, teams that fail in that letdown spot have trouble the following week.

I'm looking hard at Northwestern and Tennessee.
Click to expand...

im still not convinced iowa loss had anything to do with spot last week, i dunno how ya get a bye after your 1st loss and it a letdown spot? i know im a oddball which makes this situational stuff tough for me, that why i ask a lot of questions bout it as id like to get a better understanding of this area so i can at the very least avoid bad spots!! this one just tough for me as i would think with a extra week to shake it off, prepare, and with all my goals still in front of me i would be a little extra nasty/motivated in that spot!! without the bye i can see more merit to it..

i really like the vols this week, it sucks somebody's came in and snatched all the good prices on them. even at pick still like vols tho.. far as NW goes ill never argue against taking dd against iowa as they just not built to cover that kind of number, long as NW protects the ball i dont see much of any chance iowa covers. Them letting down this week def makes more sense to me as well, as last week dashed all those goals im sure they had coming into the season.
 
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