M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
You're right.
ML Dog Week 10 Edition
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
well naturally!! sadly i only know this cause i was one the dumbasses who decided to play gtech despite missing out on the good numbers and lost by the hook!! lol
Pretty widely-accepted bubble burst situational angle that i dont have numbers for. Just know teams are play against in the week after losing their first game, if and only if they were a favorite and it happens in the 2nd half of the season (applies to michigan/smu this week. Almost applied to san diego st but they were small dogs last week). Pretty sure big timers, mark lawrence and jo lici, use these situational angles and track them.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i understand it if they played the following week, but it treated the same even with a bye in between? seems to me that a great time to have your bye week and a good coach should have them over it and completely focused on the task at hand. Not to mention in this specific case that loss really didnt effect their season, they could have still run table, won big10 championship and i have no doubt they still would have been a playoff team. That obviously more iowa specific so not as important to the general question which is the bye really has no effect on that angle? That the part that is puzzling to me but i acknowledge i suck at this situational stuff.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
It was worse than that for me. I bet Tech live -6.5.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
so it doesnt apply to sdst this week since they were small dogs to frenso? here we go again with me having questions! lol.. I would get this if we were talking about a team who was td or greater dogs/obviously not expected to win, but that game was basically a pk/less than 3, i have no doubt aztecs fully expected to win that game and losing it was very deflating to them as it put them in a position they now need help to win the conf as im sure was their goal.. Id think if we like this angle it should apply to them here.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
doesnt really matter if ya lose by the hook, 2.5, or 10! The only time it should matter is if ya pick a 30 point fav to cover and they lose outright like stanford steve did with gophers, you should have to pay extra for that!! lol.. i liked tech by a td so dont blame ya for playing -6.5.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I had it available at -3.5 at game time.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
well damn, that makes me feel worse taking -4.5 that morning!! there are def a few bad things about doing majority my betting live at casino. i keep some online but not a lot. ultimately i fucked up not playing it earlier in the week as i had it circled early but put it off for some reason or another.
Not sure about the bye week in between….just know it’s “next game”
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i would think it makes a big difference but wtf do i know? lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
im starting to take a liking to army, dunno if i really want a side since im already on the u37 but not sure AF should really be favs here? feel like the most important things in this game are offensive line and defensive line power yards and stuff rate. army ranks very favorably in all those. AF oline has a few metrics on their side but army dline superior across the board. ya know it probably gonna be close so seems like the plus money or any points ya can get the way to go. i dont do ncaa teasers hardly ever but i could this this being a time it might be a good idea, tease army to +8.5 and u43 then play army ml also (obviously i have under already).
Yes sir
I was looking at usa last night. Concern would be they have the worst sos in d1….so numbers pretty skewed.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
memphis only scored freaking 7 against ucf with Hanigan out last week, dont think i could play them unless he plays. pretty sure when utsa edged them out at home earlier this year it was their 1st home loss in last 18 so i could def get behind them if they had their qb.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
yea but not like troy's is significantly better, when i looked at both teams schedules i had to go look at sos ranking to see which was worse cause it seemed pretty close! troy playing south carolina pretty much only reason they bumped up. troy played liberty but s.bama played ull which i think basically a wash, only other difference is troy faced CC this past week, before that game id bet they were very close. So really dont think it much a concern for me cause schedules fairly comparable. more worried bout sbama road vs home, wouldnt think that should be much a issue cause defense typically travels.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Technically UH opened at -4 and the game went off at -1/pk. Never saw SMU favored on Sat
2daBank
Voice of Reason
besides what i said above they have also both played 4 common opponents so really not worried as i dont think we talking about 1 teams numbers being accrued by significantly worse comp.. the like opponents scores are incredibly similar, s.bama beat 2 of them by significantly more, they did lose to texas st by 2 while troy beat them by 3 (pretty close), and both lost to ulm by similar margin.. i just dont think there a lot separating these 2, s.bama pass defense looks stronger to me, getting 4 points or the plus money seems like decent value.. ill prob stick with taking the points but the ml could find itself into some kinda beer money dog parlay! lol
Looking deeper, i dont see anywhere in vegas or offshore where houston closed a fav. Alot of pk -110 each way at close
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Didn't pay close enough attention, think mine went off at pk but UH was favored well into Sat, must have been late steam
The irony that it came to a boneheaded kick return by UH then an almost broken return by SMU all in the last 40 seconds is all anyone needs to know about that game
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I like that proposition a lot. I call it a Broken Dreams loss. I don't care if a team was a slight dog like SD State was or not, but I like it a lot more when the team that saw their dreams destroyed has to go on the road the next week. SMU is even worse shape than SD State this week, they not only lost, they fought back to send it to overtime, then lost on the stupidest coaching decision it's possible to make.
One week both those teams are big time candidates to be the Group of Five team playing on New Year's day, the next week they are on the road with zero chance to reclaim the status they had
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If only Memphis qb was a go. Maybe he plays but anything I read didn’t sound to likely. They couldn’t do shit on offense against a not very good ucf defense without him last week. I’d be all over Memphis if he plays.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
His replacement last week at ucf went 31 of 48 for only 215 yards and 3 picks, ugh. He ran it 22 more times for 60. Maybe it says something they put the ball in his hand on damn near every play, even if he wasn’t good. Another week under his belt and back at home could make for a better performance? Not like smu has a very good d.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I've heard it called the unbeaten let down too.
I don't know the W-L record, Seems there could be a lot of variables and asteriks on the W-L record, if they were at home, if they were away, if they are away again, if there was a bye, if the opponent was ranked, if the opponent was unranked.
There seems to be angles for everything.
I do like this one though. Off the top of my head I don't believe it always wins, but suppose it wins enough.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Thought the backup played well after the first couple series, at least competently after it looked like he was throwing with the wrong arm early.
They haven't ruled Gunnell out for the season either, be nice if he gets to see the field down the stretch but foot was still in an air cast last weekend.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
You'd also hate their run defense to slow San Diego State's running game.
Now, SD St often slows themselves and their running game isn't exactly as good as it' reputation is; in that, they are not consistently good running it. They are occasionally great, and other times average as evidenced by their prior games. Hawaii run D might be the weakest they have faced - look what New Mexico State did to them!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
No he was hurt before the season. Pretty sure he woulda been the starter. Be interesting if he can play in later in the month or even the bowl game. Not like they can redshirt him
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I bet it for years without keeping a strict record, but since I started keeping a record about 10 years ago it's been running 61% wins
There are a lot of variables. It has to be late in the season. Early in the season it's not as big a blow. The next game has to be against a team capable of beating them and it's even better if it's a rival. If Bama loses to Ole Miss and plays one of their cupcakes the next week it doesn't even qualify.
But SD State and SMU both qualify. SMU fans had started a petition to get GameDay to be at the Cincinnati/SMU game, they were talking about which bowl they would get if the won the AAC and were the top Group of 5 team, they had already beat their big Power 5 rival TCU and if they beat Cincinnati they were sure to get a New Year's bowl, all the usual stuff.
Don't know how puffed up SD State was. They aren't in a football hotbed like Dallas
There are a lot of variables. It has to be late in the season. Early in the season it's not as big a blow. The next game has to be against a team capable of beating them and it's even better if it's a rival. If Bama loses to Ole Miss and plays one of their cupcakes the next week it doesn't even qualify.
But SD State and SMU both qualify. SMU fans had started a petition to get GameDay to be at the Cincinnati/SMU game, they were talking about which bowl they would get if the won the AAC and were the top Group of 5 team, they had already beat their big Power 5 rival TCU and if they beat Cincinnati they were sure to get a New Year's bowl, all the usual stuff.
Don't know how puffed up SD State was. They aren't in a football hotbed like Dallas
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Just noticed that I did not include Hawaii on my list because the printout I was using classified it as a Sunday game
Tahoe, that makes applying the broken dreams / unbeaten letdown angle more difficult. How does one determine if the opponent is capable of beating the now 1-loss team. Is Hawaii? They have only pulled 1 upset in 6 dog roles and that 1 was a 4 INT game by Haener. It almost seems like it has to be followed by strict criteria or not followed at all or else some people will judge the opponent capable and some people will not.
Tahoe, that makes applying the broken dreams / unbeaten letdown angle more difficult. How does one determine if the opponent is capable of beating the now 1-loss team. Is Hawaii? They have only pulled 1 upset in 6 dog roles and that 1 was a 4 INT game by Haener. It almost seems like it has to be followed by strict criteria or not followed at all or else some people will judge the opponent capable and some people will not.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’d think that SDst in just as bad a spot only cause funny shit often happens on the Hawaii trip. I do my best to avoid Hawaii games tho. I’d think matchup wise it very favorable for sdst as this their kinda game where if they run and stop the run they should handle business. Even with the backup Memphis is def more appealing to me.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
True. I tend to think most are capable! Lol. Maybe if line is no more than a td it should scream they capable right?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I did do the Hawaii game, I was looking at the wrong list. I put Hawaii on the bad candidate list.
Myself, I consider almost everyone capable, which gets me in trouble. For the list, I tried to take personal opinion out of it and let some of the performances and history dictate if they are a good candidate or bad candidate.
I try and bet every Hawaii home game because, I'm going to stay up and watch it so I want some action on it. It's not may nature to lay points on the road, and never with San Diego State for me as a rule do I lay points. And because I assume crazy and unexpected things will happen, betting ugly dogs has made up a lot of my bets historically.
Being objective, San Diego State should be an awful matchup for Hawaii both offensively and defensively.
Myself, I consider almost everyone capable, which gets me in trouble. For the list, I tried to take personal opinion out of it and let some of the performances and history dictate if they are a good candidate or bad candidate.
I try and bet every Hawaii home game because, I'm going to stay up and watch it so I want some action on it. It's not may nature to lay points on the road, and never with San Diego State for me as a rule do I lay points. And because I assume crazy and unexpected things will happen, betting ugly dogs has made up a lot of my bets historically.
Being objective, San Diego State should be an awful matchup for Hawaii both offensively and defensively.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
ESPN announcer just said Louisiana is playing as good as anyone in the country. I guess that is what people say about you when you beat Arkansas State by 1 and avoid losing to South Alabama due to a missed FG in the final seconds.
Georgia State 50 to win 200
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Red Bandanna Games at Alumni Stadium
11/14/20 Notre Dame, L, 45-31 ND-11.5
11/9/19 Florida State, L, 38-31 FSU +2.5
10/26/18 Miami, W, 27-14 Canes -3.5
10/27/17 Florida State, W, 35-3 FSU -5.5
10/7/16 Clemson, L, 56-10 Clemson -17
9/18/15 Florida State, L, 14-0 FSU -7.5
9/13/14 USC, W, 37-31 USC -17
Boston College is only 3-4 ATS in the red bandana game. Not really fair with that 2016 Clemson game in there (National Champion year and BC was on 2nd or 3rd string QB as I recall). Notre Dame was a playoff team last year. Could say it like this, Red Bandana games vs non-CFP teams, BC is 3-2 ATS with 3 upset wins.
I'll put that on the good list.
11/14/20 Notre Dame, L, 45-31 ND-11.5
11/9/19 Florida State, L, 38-31 FSU +2.5
10/26/18 Miami, W, 27-14 Canes -3.5
10/27/17 Florida State, W, 35-3 FSU -5.5
10/7/16 Clemson, L, 56-10 Clemson -17
9/18/15 Florida State, L, 14-0 FSU -7.5
9/13/14 USC, W, 37-31 USC -17
Boston College is only 3-4 ATS in the red bandana game. Not really fair with that 2016 Clemson game in there (National Champion year and BC was on 2nd or 3rd string QB as I recall). Notre Dame was a playoff team last year. Could say it like this, Red Bandana games vs non-CFP teams, BC is 3-2 ATS with 3 upset wins.
I'll put that on the good list.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Good way to look at it. A 60% advantage is as good as you are going to find.
One of the main thing I always look for is, can I be sure the team I want to bet is motivated and is going to come out and play like their hair is on fire. You can always count on that in this game. I didn't bet that N Dame game because even though I knew it was double motivation for BC I didn't see any other advantage. Notre Dame another cold weather team, another team with a lot of big, tough Catholic guys who like to pound on the the other team and N Dame is going to have better players most years.
First time I heard of the Red Bandana game was that Clemson game and I only heard of it when I turned into the game. I bet it the next three years because it had another advantage I love to bet, warm weather team playing in really cold venues at night. Won two, lose one, 60%. And I should have been 2-0. I told myself not to lay points in the 19 game with the kind of team BC had, but I was weak and did it anyway
Against V Tech was a close call for me. Neither team is very good ATS or SU, but I get the best D, home team, Red Bandana motivation, plus points, and V Tech hasn't beaten a team with a winning record, and G Tech is their only road win,
Close call, but enough factors going my way to pull the trigger
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Over the years I like to play teams visiting Hawaii, but I don't see S D State being as distracted as some team from a peckerwood town. Hawaii is not going to be that impressive to anyone who lives in San Diego.
I see Memphis as a better play than Hawaii, but I'm not playing either one. Memphis has some damn good athletes and can play very tough when they are on their game, but they stink it up as often as they come out and play
I like this proposition, but I'm not betting on teams with losing records and I'm damn sure not betting on the team with the weaker defense even if the other team did suffer a Broken Dreams loss
I even thought about playing them in a parlay, but I just don't see any reason to bet either one of them
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
Memphis generally pretty good at home. The utsa game where they coughed up a big early lead was only loss in last 20 or so. Not thrilled w it if henigan can’t play tho. If he plays im for sure on Memphis. If not still not sure. No chance I fuck w Hawaii game.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Yes and important for this thread, the 3 covers (vs non CFG teams) were all straght up wins. As you say though, slightly discount that perhaps as all 3 wins were vs warm weather teams.
X-factor here is the QB for BC. I guess we have to trust the coaches on that and we know what Grosel can do and not do. The freshman Emmett Morehead was shaky...6-15-87-0-0, sacked 4x. Came in 2nd Q and while they still played Grosel in the 2nd H some, Morehead I think got more snaps. BC needs more out of QB position for sure, but am nervous about him. Red Bandana mojo will be needed.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I am really conflicted on what to do with the USF game. Considering moving USF from not sure to the bad candidate list.
USF should have #1 QB back this week. Houston is off OT game vs ECU then highly anticipated and roller coaster game vs SMU, now this.
So those would be the positives for USF.
The negatives primarily lie with the USF D, it's not good, unless they get good consistent pressure on Tune, he is going to have is way with them and UH should be sustaining plenty of drives. If Houston is interested and brings, even their B game, it's going to be a problem for USF to stay in this game to win it. I said when I ML'd ECU vs Houston that it would require some schitzo aspects that Houston sometimes shows up with, they don't always play 4 quarters of quality football, and that night they didn't (see 2nd H O). UH O is pretty up and down at times within games.
Houston D is really strong.
I like the situational aspects of USF, but don't like the on-the-field aspects so much.
USF should have #1 QB back this week. Houston is off OT game vs ECU then highly anticipated and roller coaster game vs SMU, now this.
So those would be the positives for USF.
The negatives primarily lie with the USF D, it's not good, unless they get good consistent pressure on Tune, he is going to have is way with them and UH should be sustaining plenty of drives. If Houston is interested and brings, even their B game, it's going to be a problem for USF to stay in this game to win it. I said when I ML'd ECU vs Houston that it would require some schitzo aspects that Houston sometimes shows up with, they don't always play 4 quarters of quality football, and that night they didn't (see 2nd H O). UH O is pretty up and down at times within games.
Houston D is really strong.
I like the situational aspects of USF, but don't like the on-the-field aspects so much.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
GT over Miami is on my list.....Miami in a very big sandwich spot....Manny Diaz is still coaching, so thats a bonus for GT....
