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SEC Week 6

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm on vacation this week, so hopefully will have some times in the evening to chat this week. I also have some thoughts from last week. The next two weeks in the SEC will be about maneuvering and getting in position before the huge week that will be week 8
 
Week 6 games:

Mizzou +2/48.5 @ aTm
AU +24/53.5 @ UGA
Ole Miss -9/52.5 @ SCAR
Alabama -22/55.5 @ Vanderbilt
Tenn -13.5/59.5 @ Arkansas
Florida +3/61.5 vs UCF
 
SC, Aub and Vandy 1st H lines look doable.....all at home....Aub and Vandy catching heavyweights off a title fight....SC catching Ole Miss off a bad loss (according to vegas)....
 
SC, Aub and Vandy 1st H lines look doable.....all at home....Aub and Vandy catching heavyweights off a title fight....SC catching Ole Miss off a bad loss (according to vegas)....
AU is @ UGA. A pissed off UGA. I am considering going all in on UGA: 1H, TT's and full game ATS. The only thing that holds me back is that the Hugh Freeze offense, when it isn't turning it over, is designed to strain the Saban/Smart defense, as we saw last year when AU was very competitive with both. However, while Alabama exposed some weaknesses on the UGA defense, I don't think AU can necessarily take advantage, and as mentioned, UGA has got to be angry and I think they take it out on AU now that their supremacy has been questioned

I am interested to see how Alabama responds in this situation. Obviously the biggest win of the De Boer era. Does the 2nd half near disaster catch the attention of the team? The staff put rat traps throughout the facility this week, but you never know how messaging gets through to college players. At least it isn't the 11 AM CDT kick, though it will still be pretty sleepy. Vandy's stadium is undergoing renovations and I think the number for this game will be 28,000 fans. Certainly a different environment than last week
 
Sucks to have to factor in the letdown because UGA by anything less than 42 would be upsetting

Mizzou/A&M is at least interesting. These SEC tripleheaders on ABC are underwhelming for a lot of the country but they sold their souls
 
Sucks to have to factor in the letdown because UGA by anything less than 42 would be upsetting

Mizzou/A&M is at least interesting. These SEC tripleheaders on ABC are underwhelming for a lot of the country but they sold their souls
I think it’s hard to get 3 good games in one day for any conference. Next 2 weeks will be better though:

10/12: SCAR @ Bama, RR shootout, Ole Miss @ LSU

10/19: LSU/Ark?, Bama @ Tenn, UGA @ Texas
 
I think it’s hard to get 3 good games in one day for any conference. Next 2 weeks will be better though:

10/12: SCAR @ Bama, RR shootout, Ole Miss @ LSU

10/19: LSU/Ark?, Bama @ Tenn, UGA @ Texas
Well they are contracted with the ACC and Big 12 as well

It's simply forced SEC which we knew was coming but it's not good when they cram three games down our throats. At least the morning game is good looking on paper. Not like I'm unaware of what they're doing. Morning good game, 12:30 UGA, 4:30 Tennessee so they get the shine on but those aren't good games. I don't even pay attention to Gameday anymore, no clue if there is a game that they're hyping up this week. Will they even go to Big Ten turf anymore? Without looking they should be in Washington for the MNC rematch but they have nothing to do with the Big Ten anymore.
 
I imagine they had Clemson/FSU penciled in for the prime time game this week. And while I think the big 12 will produce the most entertaining overall season, unfortunately it’s only us sickos that enjoy that
 
I imagine they had Clemson/FSU penciled in for the prime time game this week. And while I think the big 12 will produce the most entertaining overall season, unfortunately it’s only us sickos that enjoy that
Preseason rankings deemed the big12 regular season irrelevant
 
Preseason rankings deemed the big12 regular season irrelevant
I could wax poetic on preseason rankings for hours, but the fact still remains that Kansas St and Oklahoma St could be #1 and 2, and more people will watch unranked Texas-Michigan etc. It is what it is. At least we are able to watch most all these other games. When I was growing up, you were stuck with whatever the 3 networks chose to show you
 
I could wax poetic on preseason rankings for hours, but the fact still remains that Kansas St and Oklahoma St could be #1 and 2, and more people will watch unranked Texas-Michigan etc. It is what it is. At least we are able to watch most all these other games. When I was growing up, you were stuck with whatever the 3 networks chose to show you
Yeah, it's cool if you're a fan of SEC teams. I didn't even get a satellite dish in the front yard til 1989 or so

I get it that this is all about ratings and money, it's a professional sport

Pretty much sucks
 
I could wax poetic on preseason rankings for hours, but the fact still remains that Kansas St and Oklahoma St could be #1 and 2, and more people will watch unranked Texas-Michigan etc. It is what it is. At least we are able to watch most all these other games. When I was growing up, you were stuck with whatever the 3 networks chose to show you
Yeah, but we had Keith Jackson ;)
 
Currently in a hotel room in Fort Smith Arkansas, halfway home from the family trip out west. I'm pretty beat, but I listened to about 7.5 hours of football podcasts while driving today, so hopefully I have some sort of grasp on things. First, some thoughts from last week:

AU continues to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They put up pretty decent numbers against OU, but a couple of wrong decisions bites them again. Hugh can blame the QBs, but turnovers are a hall mark of his teams. I saw a tweet on # of 20+ TO seasons, and Freeze was at like 8, while Saban, Smart, etc all were at 1 or less. I see where folks are coming from when they say AU could easily be 5-0, but putting away games is something you have to do at this level, especially at home. Right now it's going to be an uphill climb for them to make a bowl, but I don't think Freeze is on the hot seat just yet. As long as he keeps the recruiting class intact and doesn't go 0-8 in the conference. If the class falls apart or they go winless, all bets are off. On the flip side, great coaching by OU to figure out a way to work with what they had, especially on offense with all those injuries. I'm not too optimistic about their chances against Texas next week, but the bye comes at a great time

LIke most people, I looked at Ole Miss' schedule this summer and thought they had a pretty smooth path to the playoff. But the more I thought about it, I wasn't sure they deserved that level of confidence. Not that they couldn't or wouldn't, but just that it was a foregone conclusion. It's still all on the table of course, but it looks a little tougher than we thought. I know there have been some injuries, and Grovehard can speak much more intelligently on it, but it sounds like they are getting a little too one dimensional on offense, both from a pass/run perspective and from who they throw it to perspective. Maybe get the run game going and find a second pass catcher to take some pressure off of Harris. For Kentucky, I think we can safely say they are better than they showed in that loss to SCAR, and their defense is certainly for real. They are pretty much the SEC version of Iowa

Didn't really catch much of the Texas/MSU or aTm/Arky games. I had them on my quad box, but mainly just to keep an eye on it. Texas kind of slept walked through the 1st half, and kind of quietly handled business. aTm and Ark are kind of sneaky good teams. Not elite, but will be a tough out for most teams they play. Not sure who the right choice is at QB for aTm

I've listened and read a ton on the aftermath of the Alabama/UGA game. I'm sure most here have too. I think the best thing is to take a 30,000 foot view of the game, because in the micro, there is enough there to come away with whatever conclusion you want about either team. At the end of the day, I think it was 2 talented and well coached teams that will both have a say in how this season as a whole will be remembered. I think there are legitimate concerns for both teams, and reasons for optimism for both. For Alabama, that 1st half shows you what an improvement we have in coaching and game planning. That was a masterclass. Milroe looks nothing like the deer in headlights he did even into the late season last year. I'd be worried about the lack of a traditional run game, but I guess it doesn't matter than much when you have an alien at QB. But those RBs will need to show up later this season. I'm not too worried about the second half due to 1) UGA is really good and 2) that was an unusual game situation and UGA was successful on 4th down at an unsustainable level. They were 3/15 on 3rd down, and 5-5 on 4th, plus 2 more 4th down attempts that were converted due to penalty. Probability and advanced stats say that result would happen less than 5% of the time. But it did happen, so you have to worry some as an Alabama fan. The offensive play calling wasn't as bad as it felt live. After reading some film analysis, it was one of those situations where UGA defended certain things a little better, and called defenses that ended up being the exact right defense for our play call. It happens. I was a little nervous that De Boer coached not to lose, but I'm not sure that's the case. Something to monitor. The lack of pressure on Beck in the 4th quarter was a mistake IMO, but some of the throws Beck made were ones that not many can make in the college game. For UGA, I think you have to be pleased with the way they bounced back after getting thoroughly whipped to start the game. They aren't used to that, but responded like champions. That will help them moving forward. And maybe in their desperation, they found some guys that they can count on to stretch the field and make that offense more explosive. They are going to need it moving forward. The defense is nowhere near what it was a couple seasons ago. Not only from a talent perspective, but they were taking poor angles, missing tackles, and just did not look like a Kirby Smart defense. Maybe that is a product of the Alabama plan, but they haven't looked up to their standard for the last 2 games. I think they may still be the best overall team in college football, but the problem is they play 4 teams in the regular season that can conceivably take advantage of their weaknesses, when they are accustomed to playing zero. I'm already thinking about a Texas 1q and 1h bet, because if De Boer/Sheridan can scheme something to give them fits, I am very confident Sark can as well

Probably more than anyone wanted to read, but I've been driving for 11 hours today with 3 kids in the car, so this is my way of unwinding lol
 
For tomorrow's games:

Seems like the whole world is on aTm. I get it, they've looked better than expected while last time we saw Mizzou they escaped Vandy in OT. This feels like two pretty evenly matched teams. Mizzou is probably better at QB and WR, which may be the difference. aTm is certainly more battle-tested. Not sure if they've announced who is starting at QB for Aggies, but I think it may be better if it's Reed. Still a slight lean to aTm, but doubt I bet this one. Feels like a coin flip

Ole Miss @ SCAR is intriguing. Both teams are very good at getting after the passer, and Ole Miss is elite at stopping the run as well. Like mentioned above, this is an under or nothing for me

I may have jumped too hard at the UGA is going to kill AU line of thinking. I still think UGA wins pretty easily, and probably covers, but I'm not going to go as heavy as I thought I was. Might stick to 1st half. If AU turns it over like they have been, it will get real ugly. But 4 scores is a lot in a rivalry game

As I mentioned, the Alabama game has all the makings of a sleepy, trap type game. Big, emotional win, small crowd against an overmatched opponent, etc. Only thing missing is the 11 am local time kickoff. Vanderbilt has improved enough that if Alabama is just going through the motions, this can be a game in the 4th quarter. I'm guessing(hoping) that we won't see as many Milroe designed runs and an effort to get the RBs going. I think Alabama will be able to hit some explosives, though based on the way Vandy played Mizzou, they are going to give up everything underneath and count on Alabama getting greedy or frustrated with dink and dunk and making a mistake. I think the under deserves a look, though anything I play will be reserved for the 1st half. I could see Vandy playing tough and getting the game they want, only to see the dam break in the 2nd half

No real comment on the Florida game. But if they lose, I think Napier is gone on Sunday. He's gone anyway, but a loss to UCF (and a 5th game played for most of the players) will set everything in motion immediately IMO

I kind of think this may be a tough game for Tennessee. This will certainly tell us something about whether they are true contenders for the conference, or just a good team on their way up. If they are true contenders, they will win and cover. If they are not there yet, I think this will be a struggle. So my advice is to bet the way you think of Tennessee as a whole. I tend to think they are for real and that the game will go down close to how the OU game played out

I'll be in the car again for most of the morning and early afternoon tomorrow. I hope to be around in the in-game thread tomorrow night.
 
Interesting stat I heard today. Alabama is 2nd in the country in 3rd down defense and 115th in 4th down defense. Glad we aren't playing Ole Miss this year lol
 
Currently in a hotel room in Fort Smith Arkansas, halfway home from the family trip out west. I'm pretty beat, but I listened to about 7.5 hours of football podcasts while driving today, so hopefully I have some sort of grasp on things. First, some thoughts from last week:

AU continues to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They put up pretty decent numbers against OU, but a couple of wrong decisions bites them again. Hugh can blame the QBs, but turnovers are a hall mark of his teams. I saw a tweet on # of 20+ TO seasons, and Freeze was at like 8, while Saban, Smart, etc all were at 1 or less. I see where folks are coming from when they say AU could easily be 5-0, but putting away games is something you have to do at this level, especially at home. Right now it's going to be an uphill climb for them to make a bowl, but I don't think Freeze is on the hot seat just yet. As long as he keeps the recruiting class intact and doesn't go 0-8 in the conference. If the class falls apart or they go winless, all bets are off. On the flip side, great coaching by OU to figure out a way to work with what they had, especially on offense with all those injuries. I'm not too optimistic about their chances against Texas next week, but the bye comes at a great time

LIke most people, I looked at Ole Miss' schedule this summer and thought they had a pretty smooth path to the playoff. But the more I thought about it, I wasn't sure they deserved that level of confidence. Not that they couldn't or wouldn't, but just that it was a foregone conclusion. It's still all on the table of course, but it looks a little tougher than we thought. I know there have been some injuries, and Grovehard can speak much more intelligently on it, but it sounds like they are getting a little too one dimensional on offense, both from a pass/run perspective and from who they throw it to perspective. Maybe get the run game going and find a second pass catcher to take some pressure off of Harris. For Kentucky, I think we can safely say they are better than they showed in that loss to SCAR, and their defense is certainly for real. They are pretty much the SEC version of Iowa

Didn't really catch much of the Texas/MSU or aTm/Arky games. I had them on my quad box, but mainly just to keep an eye on it. Texas kind of slept walked through the 1st half, and kind of quietly handled business. aTm and Ark are kind of sneaky good teams. Not elite, but will be a tough out for most teams they play. Not sure who the right choice is at QB for aTm

I've listened and read a ton on the aftermath of the Alabama/UGA game. I'm sure most here have too. I think the best thing is to take a 30,000 foot view of the game, because in the micro, there is enough there to come away with whatever conclusion you want about either team. At the end of the day, I think it was 2 talented and well coached teams that will both have a say in how this season as a whole will be remembered. I think there are legitimate concerns for both teams, and reasons for optimism for both. For Alabama, that 1st half shows you what an improvement we have in coaching and game planning. That was a masterclass. Milroe looks nothing like the deer in headlights he did even into the late season last year. I'd be worried about the lack of a traditional run game, but I guess it doesn't matter than much when you have an alien at QB. But those RBs will need to show up later this season. I'm not too worried about the second half due to 1) UGA is really good and 2) that was an unusual game situation and UGA was successful on 4th down at an unsustainable level. They were 3/15 on 3rd down, and 5-5 on 4th, plus 2 more 4th down attempts that were converted due to penalty. Probability and advanced stats say that result would happen less than 5% of the time. But it did happen, so you have to worry some as an Alabama fan. The offensive play calling wasn't as bad as it felt live. After reading some film analysis, it was one of those situations where UGA defended certain things a little better, and called defenses that ended up being the exact right defense for our play call. It happens. I was a little nervous that De Boer coached not to lose, but I'm not sure that's the case. Something to monitor. The lack of pressure on Beck in the 4th quarter was a mistake IMO, but some of the throws Beck made were ones that not many can make in the college game. For UGA, I think you have to be pleased with the way they bounced back after getting thoroughly whipped to start the game. They aren't used to that, but responded like champions. That will help them moving forward. And maybe in their desperation, they found some guys that they can count on to stretch the field and make that offense more explosive. They are going to need it moving forward. The defense is nowhere near what it was a couple seasons ago. Not only from a talent perspective, but they were taking poor angles, missing tackles, and just did not look like a Kirby Smart defense. Maybe that is a product of the Alabama plan, but they haven't looked up to their standard for the last 2 games. I think they may still be the best overall team in college football, but the problem is they play 4 teams in the regular season that can conceivably take advantage of their weaknesses, when they are accustomed to playing zero. I'm already thinking about a Texas 1q and 1h bet, because if De Boer/Sheridan can scheme something to give them fits, I am very confident Sark can as well

Probably more than anyone wanted to read, but I've been driving for 11 hours today with 3 kids in the car, so this is my way of unwinding lol
Man UK as SEC Iowa is dead on. I think the Cats have a top 4 defense in the SEC and when they don’t turn it over on offense and can dictate tempo they can beat almost anyone.

In order for Ole Miss to get back on schedule re: the playoffs they need to get healthy pretty damn quick. Every week is an elimination game until UGA now.
 
Currently in a hotel room in Fort Smith Arkansas, halfway home from the family trip out west. I'm pretty beat, but I listened to about 7.5 hours of football podcasts while driving today, so hopefully I have some sort of grasp on things. First, some thoughts from last week:

AU continues to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They put up pretty decent numbers against OU, but a couple of wrong decisions bites them again. Hugh can blame the QBs, but turnovers are a hall mark of his teams. I saw a tweet on # of 20+ TO seasons, and Freeze was at like 8, while Saban, Smart, etc all were at 1 or less. I see where folks are coming from when they say AU could easily be 5-0, but putting away games is something you have to do at this level, especially at home. Right now it's going to be an uphill climb for them to make a bowl, but I don't think Freeze is on the hot seat just yet. As long as he keeps the recruiting class intact and doesn't go 0-8 in the conference. If the class falls apart or they go winless, all bets are off. On the flip side, great coaching by OU to figure out a way to work with what they had, especially on offense with all those injuries. I'm not too optimistic about their chances against Texas next week, but the bye comes at a great time

LIke most people, I looked at Ole Miss' schedule this summer and thought they had a pretty smooth path to the playoff. But the more I thought about it, I wasn't sure they deserved that level of confidence. Not that they couldn't or wouldn't, but just that it was a foregone conclusion. It's still all on the table of course, but it looks a little tougher than we thought. I know there have been some injuries, and Grovehard can speak much more intelligently on it, but it sounds like they are getting a little too one dimensional on offense, both from a pass/run perspective and from who they throw it to perspective. Maybe get the run game going and find a second pass catcher to take some pressure off of Harris. For Kentucky, I think we can safely say they are better than they showed in that loss to SCAR, and their defense is certainly for real. They are pretty much the SEC version of Iowa

Didn't really catch much of the Texas/MSU or aTm/Arky games. I had them on my quad box, but mainly just to keep an eye on it. Texas kind of slept walked through the 1st half, and kind of quietly handled business. aTm and Ark are kind of sneaky good teams. Not elite, but will be a tough out for most teams they play. Not sure who the right choice is at QB for aTm

I've listened and read a ton on the aftermath of the Alabama/UGA game. I'm sure most here have too. I think the best thing is to take a 30,000 foot view of the game, because in the micro, there is enough there to come away with whatever conclusion you want about either team. At the end of the day, I think it was 2 talented and well coached teams that will both have a say in how this season as a whole will be remembered. I think there are legitimate concerns for both teams, and reasons for optimism for both. For Alabama, that 1st half shows you what an improvement we have in coaching and game planning. That was a masterclass. Milroe looks nothing like the deer in headlights he did even into the late season last year. I'd be worried about the lack of a traditional run game, but I guess it doesn't matter than much when you have an alien at QB. But those RBs will need to show up later this season. I'm not too worried about the second half due to 1) UGA is really good and 2) that was an unusual game situation and UGA was successful on 4th down at an unsustainable level. They were 3/15 on 3rd down, and 5-5 on 4th, plus 2 more 4th down attempts that were converted due to penalty. Probability and advanced stats say that result would happen less than 5% of the time. But it did happen, so you have to worry some as an Alabama fan. The offensive play calling wasn't as bad as it felt live. After reading some film analysis, it was one of those situations where UGA defended certain things a little better, and called defenses that ended up being the exact right defense for our play call. It happens. I was a little nervous that De Boer coached not to lose, but I'm not sure that's the case. Something to monitor. The lack of pressure on Beck in the 4th quarter was a mistake IMO, but some of the throws Beck made were ones that not many can make in the college game. For UGA, I think you have to be pleased with the way they bounced back after getting thoroughly whipped to start the game. They aren't used to that, but responded like champions. That will help them moving forward. And maybe in their desperation, they found some guys that they can count on to stretch the field and make that offense more explosive. They are going to need it moving forward. The defense is nowhere near what it was a couple seasons ago. Not only from a talent perspective, but they were taking poor angles, missing tackles, and just did not look like a Kirby Smart defense. Maybe that is a product of the Alabama plan, but they haven't looked up to their standard for the last 2 games. I think they may still be the best overall team in college football, but the problem is they play 4 teams in the regular season that can conceivably take advantage of their weaknesses, when they are accustomed to playing zero. I'm already thinking about a Texas 1q and 1h bet, because if De Boer/Sheridan can scheme something to give them fits, I am very confident Sark can as well

Probably more than anyone wanted to read, but I've been driving for 11 hours today with 3 kids in the car, so this is my way of unwinding lol
This is terrific
 
Interesting stat I heard today. Alabama is 2nd in the country in 3rd down defense and 115th in 4th down defense. Glad we aren't playing Ole Miss this year lol
We have a getting off the field problem apparently
 
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