ML Dog Week 10 Edition

[KJ]

GT over Miami is on my list.....Miami in a very big sandwich spot....Manny Diaz is still coaching, so thats a bonus for GT....

If weather plays into your stuff make sure how it looks in Florida. Earlier this week they were calling for rain and wind for most of the state on Saturday but I haven't checked recently.

 

[bones]

Good Candidates:

Mississippi State +180 – Nice revenge tour for Miss State beating 2 of 3 teams so far this year who beat them last year (aTm and UK). Two upset wins this year (NC St and aTm). Covered 3 of last 4, only miss was Alabama. Auburn on deck.
-at-
Arkansas – Off Ark Pine Bluff last week. Nice break in action after 4 game SEC gauntlet and Hogs ran out of gas. Ark only favored once this year vs FBS, upset by Auburn 2 weeks ago. DC Barry Odom thought highly of DC circles, was easy stopping State last year, will be harder this year. LSU on deck.

Memphis +175 – Need to check QB status. Memphis only 1-4 ATS in AAC/CUSA play this year and lost 4 of last 5 straight up (only win Navy). Won 7 in a row vs SMU before SMU kick game winning FG at end game last year. Off bye week
-vs-
SMU – Has to get off the deck after losing tough one at Houston last week for first loss of year. SMU looks like strong team overall, but was involved in close game at La Tech and at Navy. Just 1-3 ATS on road.

South Alabama +160 – Nicely improved group. Favored in every game but one this season and that one dog role were +12.5 vs ULL and missed FG at the gun in 2pt loss. In state rivalry game. Road team is 6-2-1 ATS (USA has two road upset wins – last time an eventual 4-8 USA team beat Troy as 16pt dog).
-at-
Troy – Troy has won the last 3 in the series big including a season finale 29-0 win last year. Troy not a great favorite, just 1-4 ATS and was upset at ULM and only beat TxSt and GoSo by 3 each. Solid D, O is starting to come around as shown hanging tough at Coastal Car last week.

Rice +200 – Upset UAB in Birmingham, then lets down as short HF vs North Texas. QB Wiley Green injured. Typically competes vs teams their own size and weight class. Don’t typically pay Charlotte, but Rice is 6-0 ATS as road dog at CUSA east teams dating back to 2016 with outright wins at Marshall last year and at MTSU 2019!
-at-
Charlotte – upward ascent from early season success stuck in neutral now after blowout losses to FAU and WKU. D is a problem, and now so is the O. Went with backup QB last week as Reynolds injured hand/finger.

West Virginia +145 – Off home upset of Iowa State, but were upset prior home game by Texas Tech for 2-1 SU home record vs FBS. Last year WVU was 4-0 home vs FBS including an OT win as short dog to Baylor. Only outgained by 11y last year in Stillwater but lost 13-27.
-vs-
Oklahoma State – have won 6 straight in series, couple big runs last year put Pokes up 14-0 before WV tried to comeback. Previous two in 2018 and 2019 were one score games. OkSt have covered 6 straight! 2-1 SU on the road with lone loss a close one at ISU.

ULM +155 – One of the upset darlings this year with 3 big dog wins! Brought back down to earth last week at App St (trailed 7-49 HT). Still enters here 4-4 SU! Won 4 straight in series 2016-2019 before losing by 21 last week despite almost 50y edge.
-at-
Texas State – QB switch felt like it had to come, McBride was turnover machine, but previously competent Vitt forgot how to play (6-13-42-0-1, team shut out). TxSt as a favorite? Rare. Lost vs Incarnate Word, Spavital is 0-3-1 ATS as home fav.

Texas +200 – Lost SU by 7 in both dog roles this year (0-2 ATS). 3 game ATS losing streak. Lost the last two in series, but by just 3 and 2 pts.
-at-
Iowa State – Clones have been upset 3x this year. 1-3 ATS at home with only cover vs Kansas. Beat UNI by 6, lost to Iowa by 10, beat Ok St by 3. Close games continue to be general rule for ISU vs Big Xll teams not named Kansas, 14 of last 22 decided by 1 score or less (4 of 5 this year).

Purdue +130 – Purdue has pulled upsets in 2 of their last 3 games. Purdue pass game should have edge vs MSU D. MSU last in B1G yards allowed passing per game and allow 62% completions. Purdue completes 70% for over 300 ypg. Purdue D should be ok.
-vs-
Michigan State – won 8 straight in series although they don’t meet often. Could strange games among their unbeaten record such as beating Indiana by just 5 and improbable OT win vs Nebraska. Off Michigan win.

Auburn +170 – Covered 3 of last 4, only miss vs UGA. Pulled two upsets this year (LSU and Ark) while playing Penn St tough in a noncovering road loss. Tigers are 4-0 SU in College Station as SEC members, strange home team is just 1-8 SU overall. Auburn has won 3 of last 4 in series overall.
-at-
Texas A&M – Upset of Alabama has been springboard, on 3-0 ATS run, but last two vs over matched foes (Mizzou and South Carolina). Off bye. Have been upset twice this year (Ark and MissSt).

MTSU +600 – Covered 3 of last 4 including upset win vs Marshall as 11pt dog! Have not played as well on the road, just 0-3-1 ATS. “100 Miles of Hate” TIGHT series. MTSU won by 19 in 2018. Outside of that, the other four games have been decided by total of 12 pts with 2 going to OT! Underdog is 7-3 with 4 outright wins in last 10 games! MTSU might be on who was their 3rd string QB to start the season, but he played well last week (albeit vs Southern Miss)
-at-
Western Kentucky – Has won 5 of last 6 in series, but haven’t covered 3 straight. Highest scoring team in CUSA 40ppg.

Washington +220 – Have played better the last 6 quarters, but still a long ways away from being good. UW may have chip on shoulder as they technically won the North last year, but due to covid, Oregon represented the division. It was a theme all offseason and if Washington can salvage anything from this season, a win here might be it. DNP last year. 2019 and 2018 decided by total of 7 pts including an OT game.
-vs-
Oregon – Finally a blow out win, although it was just vs Colorado. Last 4 games this year were all close, even vs Arizona that was just a 5pt game entering the 4th Q. So close games had been rule for Ducks before last week. Only 1-4 ATS in PAC 12 play.

Wyoming +150 – 4 game losing streak and lost 5 straight ATS! Found some O last week after scoring just 17 pts the previous 3 games. Had 4 game win streak in series snapped last year. Border War!
-vs-
Colorado State – Another tough loss last week vs Boise when CSU led 16-7 HT but were outscored 3-21 2nd H vs Boise. Week prior mismanaged FGA that would’ve beat USU. Have allowed 52pts the last 2 games after only allowing 51 the previous 4 games combined.


Bad Candidates:

Arizona +400 – Zona getting closer, great 1st H vs Washington, played very respectable at USC last week. 3-2 ATS in PAC12 play. 20 game losing streak.
-vs-
California – 3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU after bye with near win at Oregon. O has gotten better each week. Were upset twice this year vs Nevada and Washington State. USC on deck.

UTEP +350 – 6-2 SU! Covered 5 straight ATS! But still struggle vs the better teams (lost at Boise by 41 and trailed FAU by 18 before making a comeback late). Pulled two upsets this year (NMex and LaTech).
-vs-
UTSA – 8-0 and searching for respect! Road wins of 45-16 at LaTech, 52-46 at WKU, 31-28 at Memphis and 37-30 at Illinois! Impressive team! Have beat UTEP 4 straight.

LSU +1800 – lost 3 of last 4 straight up, only beat Florida in that span.
-at-
Alabama – won 8 out of last 9 vs LSU by 38, 29, 14, 10, 14, 7, 21 and 4. One team is heading the wrong direction.

San Jose State +310 – Covered 3 straight after staring season 0-5 ATS. Back-to-back wins 27-20 at UNLV and 27-21 vs Wyoming. Have not pulled any upsets.
-at-
Nevada – Pack responded off tough Fresno loss to blow rival UNLV out. Were a 2pt road fav at Kansas State for their only upset loss of season. Looking for revenge, this is rematch of last year’s MWC Title game. Nevada led 20-7 at halftime, but lost 20-30.

Hawaii +250 – Just 2-4 ATS as dog, but did upset Fresno here (+4 INTs). Also beat San Diego State last time on the islands (-3). Hawaii run D is really bad.
-vs-
San Diego State – Off first loss of season to Fresno. Were upset twice last year (San Jose and Nevada) but beat Hawaii by 24 (-10). Have only faced one quality passing attack and Haener went for 300y on them.


Not sure/maybe:

Navy +900 – On run covering 5 of last 6 since dismal first two games to start season. Beat Tulsa last week, played Cincy tough, nearly beat SMU, beat UCF and played Houston tough. Only bad game in this mix was Memphis. Navy D more consistent than O at this point, but it’s getting better. Bye on deck.
-at-
Notre Dame – Playing third straight home game. Beat Navy by 32 and 22 last two in series (2019 and 18). Tough gear change after pass happy USC and UNC Os to the grinding play in phone booth with cut-blocking Navy team. Big defensive edge if Irish are prepped and ready for it.

Boise State +180 – alternating wins-losses ATS the last 7 games! Covered last week. Boise actually better on the road, 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU. Don’t play in regular season much.
-at-
Fresno – have won 2 of last 3 in series. Lost as 11 pt fav at Hawaii, 4-1 SU in MWC play although just 2-3 ATS

UNLV +105 – 14 game losing streak, but were showing improved play before 20-51 set back at Nevada. Were involved in 4 straight one score games prior to that. Don’t play often, but road team has won the last 4
-at-
New Mexico – Off bye and off first win and cover of season 14-3 at Wyoming. 0-5 ATS off bye week last 5 years. These are the two worst offenses in the MWC.

Florida International +125 – Only 1 cover vs FBS this year and lost by DD in 5 of 7 games and 8 of their last 10 losses have been by DD.
-vs-
Old Dominion – Got first FBS win last week after playing some close games vs Buffalo, Marshall and UTEP. Haven’t been road favorite since 2019 and lost 2 of 3 SU.

FAU +100 – alternating wins-losses ATS the last 5 weeks, but just 2-3 SU in that span.
-vs-
Marshall – have won 3 straight in series. Have been upset 2x this season and nearly lost a 3rd vs ODU.

Tennessee now pick’em

Unless I missed something in the thread, I am surprised there has not been much discussion of Boise. Mind you that I lean Fresno, are there thoughts on this game?

* I decided many weeks ago after watching Fresno's QB against UCLA that I would not bet against them the rest of the year.

 

[s--k]

Unless I missed something in the thread, I am surprised there has not been much discussion of Boise. Mind you that I lean Fresno, are there thoughts on this game?

* I decided many weeks ago after watching Fresno's QB against UCLA that I would not bet against them the rest of the year.

Boise is currently on my "not sure" list from post #32 along with about 10 other games. I'm trying to remove them all and label all the dogs as either "good" or "bad" candidates whether or not I personally like them or not. I haven't yet figured where to put them.

What say you, why do you lean Fresno? What percentage of chance would you give Boise to win straight up?

 

[bones]

Boise is currently on my "not sure" list from post #32 along with about 10 other games. I'm trying to remove them all and label all the dogs as either "good" or "bad" candidates whether or not I personally like them or not. I haven't yet figured where to put them.

What say you, why do you lean Fresno? What percentage of chance would you give Boise to win straight up?

I lean Fresno b/c of their QB and what I see as better units on both sides of the ball. As I said, after watching Fresno QB in UCLA game i made the decision to not bet against Fresno the rest of the year. I bet on them in WYO and SDSt game, so that has worked well.

Fresno is ranked at/near the top of O & D in the Mountain West above Boise and the game is in Fresno. Line is less than 6.

What I do not like is that close to 77% of the tickets are on the Bulldogs

 

[KJ]

I lean Fresno b/c of their QB and what I see as better units on both sides of the ball. As I said, after watching Fresno QB in UCLA game i made the decision to not bet against Fresno the rest of the year. I bet on them in WYO and SDSt game, so that has worked well.

Fresno is ranked at/near the top of O & D in the Mountain West above Boise and the game is in Fresno. Line is less than 6.

What I do not like is that close to 77% of the tickets are on the Bulldogs

I'm on Boise +6 and ML for the very reason that I love CFB wagering

Coming off b2b big time matchups with Reno and SDSU, not only is it difficult to play a tough matchup 3 times in a row, it's also against a dangerous Boise who have been called out as deteriorating (obv not as good as usual) yet will put up points most likely.

Fresno will coast through the rest of the regular season but love overlooked Boise here. Of course I was on SDSU last week and was hoping to pound Fresno this week for the bounce back, but that's long gone now.

All that said, Fresno will now win by 21

 

[s--k]

Boise State +180 – alternating wins-losses ATS the last 7 games! Covered last week. Boise actually better on the road, 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU. Don’t play in regular season much.
-at-
Fresno – have won 2 of last 3 in series. Lost as 11 pt fav at Hawaii, 4-1 SU in MWC play although just 2-3 ATS

I lean Fresno b/c of their QB and what I see as better units on both sides of the ball. As I said, after watching Fresno QB in UCLA game i made the decision to not bet against Fresno the rest of the year. I bet on them in WYO and SDSt game, so that has worked well.

Fresno is ranked at/near the top of O & D in the Mountain West above Boise and the game is in Fresno. Line is less than 6.

What I do not like is that close to 77% of the tickets are on the Bulldogs

Well, Fresno has been a darling this year, 6-3 ATS. 4-of-5 Boise spread covers have come on the road. A lot of people have doubted Boise this year, and with reason. However, Boise has defied their expected losses and surprised when some didn't think they would.

Boise should be fresher, off bye week then at CSU. They are not out of the division race. They beat Utah STate who is first right now, so depending how tie breakers would work if USU loses another game Boise is in the thick of it.
Fresno has played physical games vs Wyoming, close game vs Nevada and physical game vs San Diego State. Fresno just got done playing their two most important games of the year in terms of MWC division race.
Scheduling situation is with Boise.

A lot of personnel position advantages are with Fresno. It sounds like Cropper is ok following a scary looking knee injury last week. Rivers might be close to returning, although Mims has been really good.

Looking at their stats in only MWC games, the Ds are very close. I wouldn't call either one good, I'd say more average-ish.

I think I am going to put Boise on the good candidate list.

 

[2daBank]

i cant play boise as ive watched way too much of them and my thoughts bout them well documented. that said they been much better on road, i dont exactly love fresno here which i normally would. agree they been playing their biggest and most grueling games of late. One my reasons for fading boise as much i have is i generally think teams get way up for a chance to take it to them after years of being boise whipping boys, not sure that really the case here, they havnt played since '18 and fresno generally holds their own so i dont think they will have the same intense drive as others may have to win this game. then again since fresno had that hiccup against Hawaii they dont have a huge cushion to where they can afford to drop games. i think boise pass d is better than their run d which should serve them well here. boise d been opportunistic and fresno has turned it over more than ya would like. in the end i cant stand boise qb so im not trusting him with my money against one i think is much better but i can certainly understand playing boise, prob a pass for me.. i might look at the total some more.

 

[2daBank]

in a perfect world boise wins here and they still end up playing in the MW championship game and this gives me a better number with fresno then!! lol.. i dunno how likely that even is but that would be great!!

 

[2daBank]

who the hell made LaTech schedule? i wanted to like them but this be their 4th road game in 5 weeks, seems like a lot.

 

[bones]

Well, Fresno has been a darling this year, 6-3 ATS. 4-of-5 Boise spread covers have come on the road. A lot of people have doubted Boise this year, and with reason. However, Boise has defied their expected losses and surprised when some didn't think they would.

Boise should be fresher, off bye week then at CSU. They are not out of the division race. They beat Utah STate who is first right now, so depending how tie breakers would work if USU loses another game Boise is in the thick of it.
Fresno has played physical games vs Wyoming, close game vs Nevada and physical game vs San Diego State. Fresno just got done playing their two most important games of the year in terms of MWC division race.
Scheduling situation is with Boise.

A lot of personnel position advantages are with Fresno. It sounds like Cropper is ok following a scary looking knee injury last week. Rivers might be close to returning, although Mims has been really good.

Looking at their stats in only MWC games, the Ds are very close. I wouldn't call either one good, I'd say more average-ish.

I think I am going to put Boise on the good candidate list.

You and @KJ have kept me off Fresno. I cannot go against them b/c I promised myself I would not. I like being able to cross a game off my "maybe list"

 

[KJ]

You and @KJ have kept me off Fresno. I cannot go against them b/c I promised myself I would not. I like being able to cross a game off my "maybe list"

Now I'm even more invested in Boise covering on your behalf bones. Thanks man.

 

[s--k]

Moving Stanford and Indiana to the bad candidate list

 

[JROCK1966]

LOL....us Ky fans are reaching for straws if we need cold weather to win....still it's a bit of evidence that backs the case we need Hooker not to play well in order to win because temps are supposed to be in the low 30s this evening. Side note: "Bully" McCall our NT tweeted yesterday he looks forward to seeing everyone tonight! Could he be back? It would be a huge boost to our run defense with him back in there...

Cold Weather is Hendon Hooker's Achilles' Heel

Mother Nature may be on Kentucky's side. Quarterback Hendon Hooker, Tennessee's Most Valuable Player, is not a fan of cold weather.

www.on3.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456693858377551882

 

[JROCK1966]

Play 1: My "Gut Feel" Play
2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs:
Risking $11 ($1 Each Parlay) to Win $582.47



Play 2: My "The World Is Ending in the BIG10 Today" Play
2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs:
Risking $11 ($1 Each Parlay) to Win $990.38



Play 3: My "Home Doggie-Winless to Win/Undefeated to Defeated + Letdown/Sandwich Spot" Play
2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs:
Risking $11 ($1 Each Parlay) to Win $508.15



May have a few more but gotta figure out new themes first.

:crazy:

BOLTA!!

 

[JROCK1966]

Adding My "Throwing Darts one More Time Before I Go Exercise" Play:

3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs:

Risking $16 ($1 Per Parlay) to Win $2,736.65



BOLTA!!

 

[s--k]

I like naming the parlays! Nice touch! I like #1 and #3 best.

 

[s--k]

My Good Candidates:

Eastern Michigan+ 280 at Toledo
Ohio +240 vs Miami
Northern Illinois +170 at Kent
Central Michigan +305 at Western Michigan
Georgia State +340 at ULL
Boston College +135 vs VT
Army +125 n Air Force
Florida State +115 vs NC State
Georgia Tech +313 at Miami
Louisville +165 vs Clemson
USF +425 vs Houston
Wake +115 at UNC
Tulane +400 at UCF
Liberty +310 at Ole Miss
Maryland +330 vs Penn St
New Mexico State +650 vs Utah St
South Carolina +650 vs Florida
Mississippi State +180 at Arkansas
Memphis +175 vs SMU
South Alabama +160 at Troy
Rice +200 at Charlotte
West Virginia +145 vs Oklahoma State
ULM +155 at Texas State
Texas +200 at Iowa State
Purdue +130 vs Michigan State
Auburn +170 at Texas A&M
MTSU +600 at WKU
Washington +220 vs Oregon
Wyoming +150vs Colorado State
FAU +100 vs Marshall
Boise State +180 at Fresno State
UNLV +105 at New Mexico
FIU +125 vs ODU

My Bad Candidates:

Akron +750 vs Ball St
Stanford +260 vs Utah
Duke +850 vs Pitt
Rutgers +400 vs Wisconsin
Northwestern +400 vs Iowa
LaTech +425 at UAB
Indiana +800 at Michigan
Georgia Southern +800 vs Coastal Car
Illinois +500 at Minnesota
Tulsa +1000 at Cincinnati
Kansas +1100 vs Kansas St
Temple +500 vs ECU
TCU +210 vs Baylor
Colorado +330 vs Oregon St
USC +270 at Arizona State
Southern Miss +175 vs North Texas
Missouri +5500 at Georgia
Arkansas State +800 at App State
Nebraska +500 vs Ohio State
Navy +900 at Notre Dame
Arizona +400 vs Cal
UTEP +350 vs UTSA
LSU +1800 at Alabama
San Jose +310 at Nevada
Hawaii +250 vs San Diego State

Not Sure / Maybe:

I removed all the Not Sure / Maybe teams and put them either on the good list or bad list. No fence sitting here!

It's never easy, but it has been fairly easy up to this point to identify the good upset candidates and the bad ones. It's about to get much much tougher. The original goal was to only consider teams on the good list and avoid the teams on the bad list. Fully knowing the % of teams that actually win straight up is not going to be great, because I don't know how it can be and also knowing that some teams on the bad list could win straight up. The goal wasn't to pick all the teams that could win and find all the teams that probably won't, somebody could do that just by sorting through the spreads and odds. It was to use some evidence and angles rather than the odds or my opinion necessarily, although my opinion has to evaluate the evidence and angles. Just so you know, I've only ML'd two of the teams on the good list, so it isn't like I am betting all of them. Have to yet figure out who I will actually have today.

 

[s--k]

One to keep an eye on is Arizona.

The number of players out and who they are for Cal is not known yet. Somebody who travels with the team has to know because of who traveled and who didn't, but it has not become public yet. There was even real doubts if that game today was going to be played. There are several players out for Cal.

Arizona has been played some pretty good football, especially for them. I really felt like I should move them to the good list and I kind of like them today, but the losing streak and Cal's improved play lately is going to keep them on the bad list. But I think I am betting Arizona today. Not sure about ML.

 

[mcculran]

Back to Duke for a minute, consider the defenses they played on the road, those are the worst defenses in the ACC!

Yeah, the only team with a pulse they have played at home was GT

 

[2daBank]

sounded like a pretty good chance Henigan was gonna be able to play, i rolled with memphis either way.. other dogs im on are s.bama, auburn, nebraska (only with the points).. think that all of them thru the 2;30 games. crazy.

 

[s--k]

Going to see if this can start the week of right!

Ohio 50 to win 115

Georgia State 50 to win 200

Not following my own advice on all of these, but I gotta be me. I didn't actually play all of these yet, but have to get posted here now before games start it gets too busy to update late.

Illinois 50 to win 250
Georgia Tech 50 to win 115
Arizona 50 to win 135
Maryland 50 to win 160
MTSU 20 to win 120
Tulane 20 to win 80
New Mexico State 50 to win 325
South Carolina 10 to win 90
UTEP 20 to win 70

 

[JROCK1966]

Last ones....2, 3, & 4-teamers with Temple, Zona, Buffs, and UTEP:

Risking $12.98 To Win $579.89 on 1st Halves.
Risking $12.98 To Win $1,291.79 on FG's.

BOLTA!!

 

[2daBank]

Last ones....2, 3, & 4-teamers with Temple, Zona, Buffs, and UTEP:

Risking $12.98 To Win $579.89 on 1st Halves.
Risking $12.98 To Win $1,291.79 on FG's.

BOLTA!!

i thought bout utep a couple times,, gl pal

 

[JROCK1966]

Won a little 2-teamer earlier so wth let's play another....this time I scanned the underdog contest top 5 and took some of their pics...plus my Cats.

3, 4, & 5-teamer RR:
USCjr 1st half, Cats FG, Horns FG, Trojans FG, & Miners FG
Risking $16.48 To Win $2,311.72.

:watchingsports:

 

[ksimpsc]

South Carolina +650 – No Doty at QB makes this tougher to envision. They’ve lost by 30 to aTm and 25 to Vols in recent weeks and were a whisker away from losing to Vandy. Did play UK tougher than some expected and Florida not world beaters this year.
-vs-
Florida – South Carolina’s play doesn’t make this pick desirable, but Florida’s play does. Gators just .500 with some uninspiring play (LSU) while finding ways to get blown out (Georgia), all while losing to UK and not covering as big favorites vs FAU and USF. Nothing really to like about this team, but are they bad enough to lose straight up to this Carolina bunch? UF O in this game under Mullen has been incredibly consistent scoring 35 in 2018, 38 in 2019 and 38 in 2020 while allowing an average of 27ppg to SC.

GAMMMMEEEEEE

Good call brother, the ace in the hole fcs quarterback just made the icing on the cake. Florida looked disgruntled and unenthused from pretty much the first drive. I could tell game was over after the first few plays into the second half, Florida team and Mullen just looked downtrodden.

 

[ksimpsc]

Won a little 2-teamer earlier so wth let's play another....this time I scanned the underdog contest top 5 and took some of their pics...plus my Cats.

3, 4, & 5-teamer RR:
USCjr 1st half, Cats FG, Horns FG, Trojans FG, & Miners FG
Risking $16.48 To Win $2,311.72.

:watchingsports:

nice play grats on that 1H 20pt dog up 20 at half :cheers3:

 

[s--k]

GAMMMMEEEEEE

Good call brother, the ace in the hole fcs quarterback just made the icing on the cake. Florida looked disgruntled and unenthused from pretty much the first drive. I could tell game was over after the first few plays into the second half, Florida team and Mullen just looked downtrodden.

Was glad to see you in the ingame yesterday. That was a really fun one!! Not only did the Gamecocks win and it was a huge moneyline return, but it was Florida! It was Mullen!

After the QB news the odds went up from earlier in the week. Guess an FCS transfer QB is just as good as a typical 3rd string QB to oddsmakers, they don't know.

The best part of all was I put 50 on it instead of I think I posted 20, so it was my biggest ML hit of the year at 450, but also the strangest win. Usually when I hit a big upset win that that for decent cash I feel really good and kind of walk around the house chest out, bounce to my step. But this one was over at halftime. All the emotion and joy I would normally get at the final I felt in the 2nd Q and like you said after the first couple plays of the 2nd H, I barely watched it and even forgot about it to check a final.

So today is the big NASCAR champion race today with some friends coming over. And I'm going to wear that South Carolina shirt that you said looks old all day long. Maybe I'll even buy a new one Monday.

 

[mcculran]

One to keep an eye on is Arizona.

The number of players out and who they are for Cal is not known yet. Somebody who travels with the team has to know because of who traveled and who didn't, but it has not become public yet. There was even real doubts if that game today was going to be played. There are several players out for Cal.

Arizona has been played some pretty good football, especially for them. I really felt like I should move them to the good list and I kind of like them today, but the losing streak and Cal's improved play lately is going to keep them on the bad list. But I think I am betting Arizona today. Not sure about ML.

Great call here

 

[ksimpsc]

Was glad to see you in the ingame yesterday. That was a really fun one!! Not only did the Gamecocks win and it was a huge moneyline return, but it was Florida! It was Mullen!

So today is the big NASCAR champion race today with some friends coming over. And I'm going to wear that South Carolina shirt that you said looks old all day long. Maybe I'll even buy a new one Monday.

Good to see you too glad to see you still got the nuts to ride the armpit of the SEC in its hour of glory.

My buddy is high on Truexx for today in the race. Won here in the spring and his 15 lap avg was fastest

 

[s--k]

The final tally:

My Good Candidates:
Eastern Michigan+ 280 at Toledo
Ohio +240 vs Miami
Northern Illinois +170 at Kent
Central Michigan +305 at Western Michigan
Georgia State +340 at ULL
Boston College +135 vs VT
Army +125 n Air Force
Florida State +115 vs NC State
Georgia Tech +313 at Miami
Louisville +165 vs Clemson
USF +425 vs Houston
Wake +115 at UNC
Tulane +400 at UCF
Liberty +310 at Ole Miss
Maryland +330 vs Penn St
New Mexico State +650 vs Utah St
South Carolina +650 vs Florida
Mississippi State +180 at Arkansas
Memphis +175 vs SMU
South Alabama +160 at Troy
Rice +200 at Charlotte
West Virginia +145 vs Oklahoma State
ULM +155 at Texas State
Texas +200 at Iowa State
Purdue +130 vs Michigan State
Auburn +170 at Texas A&M
MTSU +600 at WKU
Washington +220 vs Oregon
Wyoming +150vs Colorado State
FAU +100 vs Marshall
Boise State +180 at Fresno State
UNLV +105 at New Mexico
FIU +125 vs ODU


My Bad Candidates:
Akron +750 vs Ball St
Stanford +260 vs Utah
Duke +850 vs Pitt
Rutgers +400 vs Wisconsin
Northwestern +400 vs Iowa
LaTech +425 at UAB
Indiana +800 at Michigan
Georgia Southern +800 vs Coastal Car
Illinois +500 at Minnesota
Tulsa +1000 at Cincinnati
Kansas +1100 vs Kansas St
Temple +500 vs ECU
TCU +210 vs Baylor
Colorado +330 vs Oregon St
USC +270 at Arizona State
Southern Miss +175 vs North Texas
Missouri +5500 at Georgia
Arkansas State +800 at App State
Nebraska +500 vs Ohio State
Navy +900 at Notre Dame
Arizona +400 vs Cal
UTEP +350 vs UTSA
LSU +1800 at Alabama
San Jose +310 at Nevada
Hawaii +250 vs San Diego State

Verdict:

Good Candidates - 11 won out of 33 total

Bad Candidates -4 won out of 25 total

It kind of worked. 33% of the good candidates pulled upsets where as just 16% of the bad candidates pulled upsets. You would net $275 if you put $100 on every good candidate to win straight up (not great return really) and would lose $660 if you put $100 on every bad candidate to win straight up.

The exercise was supposed to limit my choices, or recommendations, to the teams that appeared to be good candidates.

Taking it a step further, what should've happened is the good candidates should've covered ATS at a higher rate than the bad candidates.

The bad candidates covered 11 out of 25 (one push on Hawaii). That is 44%, way too high of a %. These teams should've covered at a lower %.
The good candidates covered 16 out of 33. That is 48%. This % should've been higher. There should've been more good candidates who covered in a close loss than they were. That is what is supposed to make them a good candidate. So in that sense it failed.

After it was known that Garbers and several Cal starters were going to be out close to kickoff that game should've been on the good list. I am disappointed I did not have Illinois on the good list. There were enough reasons for it, but ultimately I thought Min was playing too well. That kind of opinion wasn't supposed to determine who was a good candidate or bad candidate, not my opinion of who is playing good or not, it was supposed to be evidence based. So I should've had Illinois on the list.

The good news is I didn't follow my own advice! I won with two teams off the bad list that I am very happy I did.

So long story short, a lot of the upsets you can foresee the how and why to them (the good candidates). And then some of the upsets it is hard to foresee the how and the why (the bad candidates). In the final analysis when picking straight up winners, especially the larger ones, while it is important to have some reasons why they could do it, sometimes you just have to wing it.

Little secret, I kind of did this whole thing to keep JRock off a team like Temple. Sorry JRock, I should've done better! Kidding. We all make some bad picks.

So somebody else can make of list of all next week's teams if they want.

 

[Rusty Trombone]

The final tally:

My Good Candidates:
Eastern Michigan+ 280 at Toledo
Ohio +240 vs Miami
Northern Illinois +170 at Kent
Central Michigan +305 at Western Michigan
Georgia State +340 at ULL
Boston College +135 vs VT
Army +125 n Air Force
Florida State +115 vs NC State
Georgia Tech +313 at Miami
Louisville +165 vs Clemson
USF +425 vs Houston
Wake +115 at UNC
Tulane +400 at UCF
Liberty +310 at Ole Miss
Maryland +330 vs Penn St
New Mexico State +650 vs Utah St
South Carolina +650 vs Florida
Mississippi State +180 at Arkansas
Memphis +175 vs SMU
South Alabama +160 at Troy
Rice +200 at Charlotte
West Virginia +145 vs Oklahoma State
ULM +155 at Texas State
Texas +200 at Iowa State
Purdue +130 vs Michigan State
Auburn +170 at Texas A&M
MTSU +600 at WKU
Washington +220 vs Oregon
Wyoming +150vs Colorado State
FAU +100 vs Marshall
Boise State +180 at Fresno State
UNLV +105 at New Mexico
FIU +125 vs ODU


My Bad Candidates:
Akron +750 vs Ball St
Stanford +260 vs Utah
Duke +850 vs Pitt
Rutgers +400 vs Wisconsin
Northwestern +400 vs Iowa
LaTech +425 at UAB
Indiana +800 at Michigan
Georgia Southern +800 vs Coastal Car
Illinois +500 at Minnesota
Tulsa +1000 at Cincinnati
Kansas +1100 vs Kansas St
Temple +500 vs ECU
TCU +210 vs Baylor
Colorado +330 vs Oregon St
USC +270 at Arizona State
Southern Miss +175 vs North Texas
Missouri +5500 at Georgia
Arkansas State +800 at App State
Nebraska +500 vs Ohio State
Navy +900 at Notre Dame
Arizona +400 vs Cal
UTEP +350 vs UTSA
LSU +1800 at Alabama
San Jose +310 at Nevada
Hawaii +250 vs San Diego State

Verdict:

Good Candidates - 11 won out of 33 total

Bad Candidates -4 won out of 25 total

It kind of worked. 33% of the good candidates pulled upsets where as just 16% of the bad candidates pulled upsets. You would net $275 if you put $100 on every good candidate to win straight up (not great return really) and would lose $660 if you put $100 on every bad candidate to win straight up.

The exercise was supposed to limit my choices, or recommendations, to the teams that appeared to be good candidates.

Taking it a step further, what should've happened is the good candidates should've covered ATS at a higher rate than the bad candidates.

The bad candidates covered 11 out of 25 (one push on Hawaii). That is 44%, way too high of a %. These teams should've covered at a lower %.
The good candidates covered 16 out of 33. That is 48%. This % should've been higher. There should've been more good candidates who covered in a close loss than they were. That is what is supposed to make them a good candidate. So in that sense it failed.

After it was known that Garbers and several Cal starters were going to be out close to kickoff that game should've been on the good list. I am disappointed I did not have Illinois on the good list. There were enough reasons for it, but ultimately I thought Min was playing too well. That kind of opinion wasn't supposed to determine who was a good candidate or bad candidate, not my opinion of who is playing good or not, it was supposed to be evidence based. So I should've had Illinois on the list.

The good news is I didn't follow my own advice! I won with two teams off the bad list that I am very happy I did.

So long story short, a lot of the upsets you can foresee the how and why to them (the good candidates). And then some of the upsets it is hard to foresee the how and the why (the bad candidates). In the final analysis when picking straight up winners, especially the larger ones, while it is important to have some reasons why they could do it, sometimes you just have to wing it.

Little secret, I kind of did this whole thing to keep JRock off a team like Temple. Sorry JRock, I should've done better! Kidding. We all make some bad picks.

So somebody else can make of list of all next week's teams if they want.

Great stuff! Maybe there's a way to tweak or extrapolate the home teams from each good/bad....as the majority of winners were home teams....that could help narrow down the field a bit and/or possibly move a team to the good list....just a thought