MistaFlava's CFB SUNDAY NIGHT ***Power Selection*** (Writeup and Analysis)


2006 CFB Record: 50-36-2 (-19.60 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 40-28-2 ATS (-21.80 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-4 (-2.00 units)

PLAY OF THE MONTH: 1-0 (+10.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-1 (-55.00 Units)

34-13-2 ATS (72%) in Football the last three weeks

Alright, I lost the big one yesterday and am now down for the year but im not concerned. I have other big games coming up and it all starts tonight. My big unit plays are only indicated so you guys can get a good idea of the play I like and how much I like it.


Sunday, October 22

Cincinnati Bearcats -1 (10 Units) ***SUNDAY NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH***

The South Florida Bulls look like an inviting play in this game and I would love to take them. The Bulls need this game badly with Pitt, Cuse, Louisville and West Virginia on deck to end the season. A loss in this game and there is a great chance that South Florida will not be in a Bowl Game this season like they were last season. Not impossible guys...this is College Football and this is also added motivation for the Cincinnati faifthful at Nippert stadium. Speaking of Nippert stadium...did I mention it was going to be cold there tonight? Temperatures are supposed to dip down to 33 degress farenheit during the game tonight which means that it's going to be fuckin freezing. The South Florida Bulls and many of their players have never played a game in the freezing cold of the Northern part of the Country. Those who have, have failed miserably when playing in these kinds of conditions. Examples? On a cold October day day last season, USF went to Pitt and got blown out as a +1 underdog. They then played in Syracuse, winning and covering that game but that was indoors. Then came the game in Connecticut last year in late November with some below freezing weather. The Bulls lost that game 15-10 as 7 points favs. The bottom line is that USF is playing only their second season in the Big East where they have to play in the cold and none of these South Florida guys have experienced anything near cold. The Bulls are averaging 22.7 points per game on the road this season on 386.3 total yards and 5.7 yards per play. Cincinnati's defense is usually jacked up at home and they have allowed only 14.3 points per game on only 263.0 total yards and 4.3 yards per play. Thats some impressive defense. On the ground, USF is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry on the ground. With the cold weather being a factor, expect them to add to their 1.7 fumbles per road game. Cincinnati's run defense is one of the best in the Country at home, allowing only 58.8 rushing yards per game and 2.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Matt Grothe has been good, completing 61.4% of his passes on the road for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. However, Cincinnati's defense is allowing visiting QB's to complete only 48.1% of their passes for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. USF's offensive line has struggled on the road allowing 3.0 sacks per game while Cincinnati have some big guys who are going to get to Grothe all night. The Bearcats defense has 1.3 interceptions per home game and I see them making some huge plays tonight.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off very near upset of the Louisville Cardinals last week and they have now proven that they are going to be Big East noisemakers from here on in. They are 3-1 at home this season with nice wins over Akron, Miami Ohio and Eastern Kentucky, while their efforts against Pitt early in the season were also quite impressive as they were in the game right up until the end. Alright here is the deal. Cincinnati are now 3-4 on the season with Cuse, WVU, Rutgers and UConn on the money. If they can win this game tonight which I know they can win, the Bearcats will move to 4-4 with the possibility of beating a horrible road team in Syracuse next week as well as UConn in their season finally to quite possibly reach another Bowl Game. Mark Dantonio has done a great job with this program and we are finally going to see it payoff tonight in this game against a team that has never ever played well when the temperature is cold. I think I have to say that looking back at all of Cincinnati's results this season they have played very well as a team and they have been good enough to win every game. I mean losing to Ohio State by 30 on the road is normal and then playing well in Blacksburg is also admirable. The Bearcats are on fire and have covered 4 straight games on the spread. They are 2-0 ATS as favorites this season and this is a great spot to take them. Cincinnati is averaging 22.5 points per game at home this season on 346.8 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play. South Florida's defense is allowing 16.7 points per road game this season and have allowed 345.9 total yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. Thats some tough defense but it won't be good enough. On the ground, RB Greg Moore was great against a very good Louisville defense last week and he has led the team to a whopping 219.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.5 yards per carry. The good news there is that USF is allowing 151.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.1 yards per carry. In the air, QB Dan Grutza gets the call and he is completing 59.6% of his passes at home for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Sure he throws a lot of INT's but USF defenders are going to be frozen in this one. Also, his offensive line is allowing only 1.3 sacks per home game and Grutza should have time to operate. USF's pass defense is rock solid this season and Grutza is going to have to work hard outside of the running attack. The Bulls allow only 5.8 yards per pass attempt on the road and they have a good pass rush and dangerous secondary that can make big plays if called upon. This is Cincinnati's game to lose and I see them having a big weather advantage.

You guys are all forgetting about the cold conditions. The gametime temp is going be between 33-38 degrees farenheit. USF has never had to play in the cold and when they have, they have lost badly as favs and underdogs. Most of the USF roster is born in Florida and like I said before, most have never played in cold weather like this. Cincinnati's players on the other hand all grew up in the freezing cold of Friday Night Lights and this alone is going to make a huge difference.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.

Cincinnati 23, South Florida 13

Loaded said:
Looking good - tick tock!!!! Nice call - even w/ the weather not being as much of a factor!!

Thanks. Well the weather mattered in the sense that USF never got in a groove (overthrows, slippery hands, and so on). nice win

way to go flava stay hot brother.....will be looking forward to your Monday night writeup