May 30th MLB Discussion (Lines Added to Post 1)

List of plays I'd like to investigate:

Blue Jays
Kluber Ks prop if available
Lean Brewers
D-backs looks easy
Nats again?
Yankees FF or RL
Angels should take the series
Braves - Vargas ERA is unbelievable
Twins - Royals Under
Oakland
Seattle

Without research like Oakland and Seattle best. That can change of course.
 
Seattle-Texas
In the last 10 Texas twice managed back to back wins.
Moore has good numbers against Sea, but those are from 2012-13 and one start in 2016. Obviously his last 4 games have been terrible with 10, 5, 3, 5 runs allowed.
Paxton has been very good with only blemish being at Texas. His stats against them look bad. 6.85 ERA last 5. .310 BA allowed.
Texas caught my interest!
 
Oakland - Tampa Bay
Eovaldi .0419 BA allowed in 32 ABs. Last 5 vs Oakland 4.97 ERA.
Manea Last 5 Not really good. 4, 4, 4, 4 and last time 6 runs. But he had 2 good starts vs TB. 15 innings and 2 earned runs.
 
Toronto - Boston
Limited info on Gavigli. 2 good starts this year. This is the third one. Not sure how Boston does vs. pitchers they haven't seen.
E Rod last 5 vs Toronto very similar. Around 6 innings, 3 earned runs. Seems that's what we can expect here.
 
Kluber
White Sox average 9.2 Ks put game placing them in the top 1/3 of MLB teams.
Current white Sox players out of 165ABs have 57K.
Last year. 8, 9, 12, 13 and 3Ks. Let one being a playoff tune-up up September 30th.
Let's see what number will be available
 
Gaius.T said:
Toronto - Boston
Limited info on Gavigli. 2 good starts this year. This is the third one. Not sure how Boston does vs. pitchers they haven't seen.
E Rod last 5 vs Toronto very similar. Around 6 innings, 3 earned runs. Seems that's what we can expect here.
Click to expand...

don't know much about gavigli other than his limited numbers look good....sox won 8 of 9 erod starts and he has allowed 5 earned in his last 4 starts never going more than 5 2/3 but solid pen behind him....toronto 8-13 vs lefties...sox got upgraded significantly this week with the addition of pedroia and the designation of hanley....their right side infield defense is now very good and pedey adds a solid bat to the order....toronto swings at everything and erod rarely throws one over the plate so i expect toronto to be limited in runs today....sox have not had many sweeps this year but toronto struggling at the moment....mookie almost for sure to be out as they are not going to take chances with their young stud but holt probable replacement and playing well....toronto tt under 4 worth a look
 
BTW, Tuck I completely believe that last nights home plate ump (gibson?) doing yankee game was no homer like you suggested. He willed the yankees to lose, struck out bird bases loaded, but yanks overcame
 
At first glance I expect Cleveland to win but not because of the WS pitcher He is very good on 4 days rest has limited but good history with the ump and in the day a point 89 ERA. On the road though 4.28 ERA while Cleveland is 6-2 on Wednesday and their players have been extremely hard working and determined and with Kluber I see a slaughter because the WS players will not match up. The domination we saw in the earlier games will continue
 
My book (bet365) agrees with tuck about a slaughter. They are favoured to lead after 2 innings! And that is including the option of a draw like in soccer.
 
Odds aren‘t predictive they play on perception. Knowing this keeps me from being duped to wantonly adding big favorites in football to ml parlay
 
FWIW I may start taking a more BAR approach toward mlb. Example was contemplating Tribe over 9 /+105 saw 8.5/-120

After Moncado got thrown out top of 1st

took o8.5/-105

so 15cents saved for 1/2 inning. GL to me
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
FWIW I may start taking a more BAR approach toward mlb. Example was contemplating Tribe over 9 /+105 saw 8.5/-120

After Moncado got thrown out top of 1st

took o8.5/-105

so 15cents saved for 1/2 inning. GL to me
Click to expand...

Gluck to us.

In-game betting is legit af. All boils down to timing!! Need to be “on the spot” if not wagers won’t get accepted, or lines change, or action on the field., etc
 
Will be playing Arizona. Hopefully some dog plays coming.
Corbin 2 ERA in the day Romano ERA vs Arizona
SAL ROMANO vs. ARIZONA since 1997
ROMANO is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 13.50 and a WHIP of 2.750.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)
 
Fading Vargas up to you this is Teherans worst spot 4 days rest at night and playing after a Atlanta win. Ump is 0-6 for the home team and Teheran usually around a 7 ERA in this spot. Atlanta very good at home on Wednesday rather uncertain
Sorry 7-1 but not directly at home
Teheran at home at night last 2 years 11-22
 
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Also in the Arizona game Ump O'Nora 7-3 for the home team 2-8 under With Corbin Corbin did very well at home but not so good away
 
tuck321 said:
Fading Vargas up to you this is Teherans worst spot 4 days rest at night and playing after a Atlanta win. Ump is 0-6 for the home team and Teheran usually around a 7 ERA in this spot. Atlanta very good at home on Wednesday rather uncertain
Click to expand...
Sounds like the over is the play!
 
What do you guys think of the rubber game in the Bronx. Pitching rematch of 4 weeks ago, where Severino pitched a CG in Houston, while Keuchel went 7 with 3 earned.

The line seems to high for my taste.
 
Last edited:
Gaius.T said:
What do you guys think of the rubber game in the Bronx. Pitching rematch of 4 weeks ago, where Severino pitched a CG in Houston, while Keuchel went 7 with 3 earned.

The line seems to high for my taste.
Click to expand...

It’s Houston someway shape or form for me. Not sure of F5 or whole game or both. Severino is lights out but Keuchel at these odds is tough to pass up. I’m thinking that the Astros are pissed off after last nights game and come out swinging.
 
bee172 said:
It’s Houston someway shape or form for me. Not sure of F5 or whole game or both. Severino is lights out but Keuchel at these odds is tough to pass up. I’m thinking that the Astros are pissed off after last nights game and come out swinging.
Click to expand...

I generally like chalk after chalk lost in bitter fashion
 
So, I'll be doing the tuck rule here. If Stassi catches I'll take the Astros to lead after 7. Taking out the bullpen of the equation.
Romine also not the ideal catcher for Luis.
 
I am very tempted to put my faith in Matt Moore off of the DL vs an opponent he's fared well against.
 
Took over in Atlanta minus 20 cents 9. Still like Braves based on Wednesday but that ump is scary
Mat have to play Angels based on major road ump
 
Gaius.T said:
I am very tempted to put my faith in Matt Moore off of the DL vs an opponent he's fared well against.
Click to expand...

Ever seen a team go 39-21 as an average +157 dog on the road? Well that's TEX record since 2004(history of sdql database) on the road when facing a team with a 45% better winning pct. SDQL is here. Also they are 10-5 this year in same situation as average +180 for a 77% ROI including last night vs M's. From the pic you can see they will have several chances coming soon too
2d9c032b-e633-4929-9ec6-50d3267d700c.png
 
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