Kentucky Oaks/Derby Discussion
- Thread starter aplous
- Start date
aplous
Donkey Hater
*Known Agenda not Rock Your World
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I'm glad it wasn't RYW, because that was a horseshit ride. Lol.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Old school right there. All the 'works' people love the way he's training. He'll definitely be fit. I swore I'd never play the UAE horses again after Mendelssohn but I'll probably throw him in 3rd and 4th in the supers.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
I'm sticking with a play against for both. Summer is Tomorrow is going to have to run his balls off the first half mile to get to the lead and is an easy fade. Crown Pride is probably better but his Derby time of 1:59 & 3 would put him at least 10-20 lengths back of US times, have to doubt the track was playing that slow.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Initial thoughts:
If the track is fast/good, more and more I'm leaning towards Epicenter. Last 3 races all showed steady improvement in speed numbers, he's 2-1-0 in three races vs a +5 pace or more, with the 2nd place finish by just a head. The horses he's beaten last two include Zandon, Zozos, Smile Happy and Pioneer of Medina. Rosario is as good a jockey as there is right now, and his training has been solid.
The horses Epicenter beat all look like they could can be used underneath. I'd rate them Zandon/Smile Happy/Zozos/Pioneer of Medina
Mo Donegal is ripe for a bounce with his last win being 18 points higher than his previous best.
I like Messier but the pace wasn't hot in Santa Anita and he still got beaten by Taiba.
Charge It at 2nd off the layoff is ripe for a leap forward. Clockers have said he looks terrific.
Tiz the Bomb is running on his worst surface here.
Taiba has looked great and has that Baffert Justify look to him, if he's still 12/1 (he won't be, probably closer to 7/1) at post I'll run to the window with both hands full.
White Abarrio ran well against a strong pace (+18) in Florida. He'll need to jump up in speed figures though.
Cyberknife, too slow. Tawny Port, too slow.
If the track is fast/good, more and more I'm leaning towards Epicenter. Last 3 races all showed steady improvement in speed numbers, he's 2-1-0 in three races vs a +5 pace or more, with the 2nd place finish by just a head. The horses he's beaten last two include Zandon, Zozos, Smile Happy and Pioneer of Medina. Rosario is as good a jockey as there is right now, and his training has been solid.
The horses Epicenter beat all look like they could can be used underneath. I'd rate them Zandon/Smile Happy/Zozos/Pioneer of Medina
Mo Donegal is ripe for a bounce with his last win being 18 points higher than his previous best.
I like Messier but the pace wasn't hot in Santa Anita and he still got beaten by Taiba.
Charge It at 2nd off the layoff is ripe for a leap forward. Clockers have said he looks terrific.
Tiz the Bomb is running on his worst surface here.
Taiba has looked great and has that Baffert Justify look to him, if he's still 12/1 (he won't be, probably closer to 7/1) at post I'll run to the window with both hands full.
White Abarrio ran well against a strong pace (+18) in Florida. He'll need to jump up in speed figures though.
Cyberknife, too slow. Tawny Port, too slow.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Is there any reason not to toss the closers here? MO Donegal, for example, is going to have to weave through 16/17/18 horses to win...what kind of pace do you think we get? I think fast but not crazy fast....I'm not an expert by any means...
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
From the win slot, probably. From exotics, no. I like to look at how horses do in the stretch in terms of gaining ground in route races. I find the closers that are most proficient at it make for some great value underneath. Think Dallas Stewart with some of his horses. Zandon and Mo Donegal have both gained ground in every stretch run. Barber Road is sneaky good at 4 out of 5, as is Tawny Port. Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb are both 3 for 4.
But its interesting that this year a lot of the stalker types have a very good record in the stretch too. White Abarrio is 3 for 4. Pioneer of Medina and Epicenter are 3 for 5, Charge It is 2 for 3, and Taiba is 1 for 1. So it may be harder than usual for the mid-pack runners and closers to make up ground here.
As far as pace I agree with fast but not killer fast. Summer is Tomorrow will want to go along with Classic Causeway, and then I'd think Epicenter, Messier, Taiba, White Abarrio, Charge It and Pioneer of Medina find spots within 4-5 lengths of the front. Then things will start to shake up on the far turn and the stalkers should take over and try to kick home with the win. The six I mentioned in the first paragraph battle to reach 3rd/4th, maybe 2nd if there's an outstanding ride.
But if we get a wet track......I wouldn't be surprised if everything flips. I could see it being wet/fast, the pace getting hot and the inverse happening, with a couple of closers romping home and the better stalkers staying on for underneath spots.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
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CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
That track does dry well. Won't be warm. But it should be drying out. Could be good later on in the day especially by Derby post.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
For some reason I thought they have a heated track at CD no?
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
At least these odds are reflecting an expected fast track thankfully
Rare to see the 1 horse take so much money regardless the connections
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yeah Zandon is clearly cold on the board
Tawny Port at 82-1 would be half that if drawn a few spots further inside
Think Messier would be much shorter if the real trainer's name was listed beside him, same with Taiba...maybe keeping those prices better than they should be
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Same. Played him and Weyburn. But need Olympiad to fade.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Like clockwork, not sure why I'm so stubborn to fight it
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yeah sometimes you have to tip the hat
No chance much of anyone thought 5 would outduel 7 at the turn, very good horse that ran his race
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Might well EXB his three if it doesn't rain
